Greenway – Australia 2013

1. I suspect that, even with the return of the popular Rudd to the Labor leadership, not even a clumsy Liberal candidate will save Rowland. The margin is too small and the issue of boat people is too big.

2. A blogger from the Australian reports that internal polling has labor ahead here along with Dobell and Robertson

3. Observer – I’m dubious about that one. That suggests to me then (according to that source) they are behind in Lindsay, Banks, Reid and possibly Parramatta. I agree Dobell will be tight and possibly (amazingly) a Labor, but I suppose that is what 20% unemployment does for you. I believe the Libs will win Robertson this time and Greenway is throwing up some unpredictable numbers.

4. that should be Dobell is possibly a Labor retain. Greenway could be close but the polls indicate that on average the Coalition are polling better. Could be a very small swing though.

5. wat makes you think Robertson will fall and by how much

6. also the margin of error for these polls would be interesting

7. Polling only includes two party preferred results. Palmer United Party is the only Party to field 150 candidates in all House of Reps seats this election – that makes them a major party and they should absolutely be included in all polls as well as Leader debates.

8. PUP supporters continue to have no shame! The ALP and the Greens will also be running in all 150 seats, and the Coalition will run in every seat too.

   No-one has ever voted for Palmer’s vanity project and those polls that have included him don’t indicate much support.

   Having buckets of money doesn’t buy you major party status.

9. Labor website lists only 76 candidates
   Greens have 3 seats in NSW alone without a candidate, No Candidate in NT, 4 missing from QLD, (according to their website)
   Libs – there are two seats in Northern Territory, Solomon and Lingiari, Libs don’t have a candidate for Lingiari.
   Need I say more.
   We support PUP because of policy not because of the leader’s wealth -where’s the shame in that?

10. Ben, I don’t think Jodie is a “PUP supporter”. I’m assuming she’s Greenway’s PUP candidate, Jodie Wootton. “Jodie W”, who claims to be the candidate, posted a comment here earlier in the year, and that Jodie has the same pic attached.

    Jodie, “major party” status comes with evidence of sufficient support that you could potentially form government. Even the Greens aren’t a major party, yet, and they actually have an MP and a heap of senators, and even are part of government in Tasmania. PUP may be fielding 150 candidates, but polls that account for all candidates still put PUP at about 9% – and that’s if you assume parties like Family First and KAP don’t take any of that 9%.

    To have any chance of forming government, you would need to be able to draw approximately 25% of the national vote; this number comes from what primary vote you would need without preferences if your national support was spread optimally amongst 75 seats, enough to get 50% of the vote in each of those seats and no votes at all in the other 75 seats. Jodie, do you honestly believe that you and your colleagues will be getting 25% of Australians to vote for your party?

11. Yes Glen you are correct.
    We don’t doubt we have a challenge in front of us, but if someone doesn’t stand up for what is right nothing will ever improve will it and we’ll be stuck with the same two parties to choose from and we can see where that’s got us.

12. Jodie – in NT, Liberals are “Country Liberal Party”, and their candidate for Lingiari is Tina MacFarlane. Labor’s website is incomplete in its list – for instance, it does not list Beattie’s candidacy in Forde (and doesn’t list the original candidate, Des Hardman, either). It doesn’t list Lingiari Labor candidate, sitting member Warren Snowdon. Indeed, it doesn’t even list Kevin Rudd himself.

    According to the PUP website, you do not yet have a candidate for Lilley, Grey, Kingston, Sturt, Casey, Flinders, Goldstein, Wills, and Wannon. So I guess you have candidates running in just 141 seats, right? Or is it just that the PUP website doesn’t list every candidate, yet?

13. Jodie – for alternatives, PUP is just one amongst a set of alternatives putting themselves forward. There’s the Greens, KAP, Family First, and the Australian Sex Party. The question has to be asked – why is your party a better choice than any of the others? If your first argument for why people should vote for you is “people need a choice other than Labor or the Coalition”, then you don’t have a strong enough platform. Recall that the Democrats ran on that platform, and died as a result.

14. Jodie, I have a lot more than that number of candidates you have listed on my website. Those parties always run a full complement, and they will this time.

15. Jodie Wootton – we live in the greatest country in the world, so I suppose our democracy has got us somewhere. We are the 12th richest nation in the world – all that with only 23 million people!

    If your party has the credibility it desires, you will be making sure all of your how to votes in every seat has their local Coalition candidate ahead of their Labor candidate given that your policies are closely aligned with Coalition policies.

    Would be interested to hear in Greenway how you intend to preference on your cards. Just remember, if you endorse a split ticket it could ensure the very thing you are trying to avoid – the Labor Party being reelected.

    I’m not here to stick the knife in. I think it is admirable that you care enough to stand as a candidate in the upcoming federal election. Well done.

16. DB – it would seem to me that, if PUP has a problem with both major parties, they wouldn’t want Coalition having control any more than Labor having control. I’d expect they would want a hung parliament, in order to have the best chance of their own policies, which do differ from those of the Coalition, being a factor. Food for thought.

17. Woa woa DB, just remember whose been in power the whole time; Labor. The coalition have been on the opposition benches so don’t take credit for the way Labor has handled the economy and don’t tell a candidate to base that on their HTVs. Why don’t you let Jodie decide based on which party is delivering in Greenway and has a better vision for Greenway, afterall that is the seat she is running in. If she thinks Diaz is better for Greenway preference him, if she thinks Rowland has delivered and has a plan to continue that preference her, but don’t use a coalition script to guilt her into preferencing the coalition. She can make up her own mind

18. Saw Rowland today at the Lalor Park Shopping Centre with her team. Was grilled by one of the Labor staffers about which way I was going to vote. The person’s individual opinion of Diaz was not high at all.

19. DLH your telling me a labor staffer doesn’t like the liberal candidate!?!?!?!?! What has this world come to. And highly doubt that they grilled you in public when people are around and you could just walk away

20. Observer, thanks, but I’ll manage my comments the way I think fit.

21. But how can you honestly take credit for the economy when you have been in opposition for the past 6 years

22. Observer, I think you misunderstood. I’m not saying Australia is in the position it is in because of the last 6 years or the previous Coalition Government. I’m not going to talk economics, but my view is that the economy survived the GFC mainly due to non-political factors.

23. Ok DB if you think that the governments actions did nothing to stop a recession even though most economists will tell you thats not the case then fine but I think if you are going to try and get preferences on here then atleast say its your view

24. Observer – I am not going to debate politics. I’m not saying the Government’s actions did not stop a recession either. The Opposition would have done much the same thing, probably not have spent as much, but much the same. Can you give it a rest please? I’m saying that Palmer is more aligned to Coalition than Labor. He is a big business man and he almost gained preselection in Lilley until Loughnane intervened. He employees thousands of Australians and he earns my respect from that point.

    Now as for Greenway, hot off the press, 52/48 today to Coalition sample of 200.

25. DB – Palmer is more closely aligned to the Coalition. But he was actually a member of the LNP until recently, and formed the PUP because he disliked what the LNP were doing. Windsor and Oakeshott were more closely aligned to the Coalition, too.

    As for the “hot off the presses” number, it’s not much of a sample – 200 means a MoE of around 7%, so 52/48 is basically the same as 50/50.

26. Well DB when you use liberal liners to get preferences here that’s what happens. And you’ve proved my point your appealing to Clive not Jodie the candidate in Greenway. She obviously cares about the community which is why she’s running in it so she should decide preferences by which candidates will and have delivered for the community and have the best for the community at heart.

    DB I’d wonder what you have for Robertson and Macquarie

27. DB, I assume that Greenway poll was taken in the immediate aftermath of That Interview?

    Diaz is probably glad of any lead he can get.

28. This is a difficult one to call. Both candidates are relatively weak candidates. I personally think this going to be a coin-flip.

29. Rowland weak, are you kidding???? If you turn to sky news when they are doing a discussion with one labor backbencher and one liberal backbencher, its generally always Michelle, she has been on Capital Hill many time, on her facebook page she is always out and about. I dont think this is a seat where you can say both candidates are weak. Judging by TV interviews on 10, you can certainly say one is

30. If you’re right, Hawkeye, about them being fairly weak, then we might see a significant swing towards the minor parties, here. I think a look back at 1998 helps to get a sense of how this seat might go.

    In 1998, One Nation polled over 10% in this seat. Democrats, Christian Democrats and Greens together polled better than 10% between them. That was at a time when the Labor candidate was able to pull 46% primary vote, so probably not a weak candidate. I’d think that, if they are indeed both weak, we could see upwards of 25% of the vote going to minor parties, here.

31. This seat is just to volatile for anyone to make an educated call at this stage. I suspect even a few days before the election we’ll still be guessing and it may well be decided by a few hundred votes. Even a couple of hundred extra enrollments today could make a big diff.

    If I was the incumbent, I’d be debating Diaz in town hall venues around this seat, twice a week.

32. With seats this close, the preferences from the alternative parties (KAT & PUP), will be very important. Its only the start of the campaign, and I am sure the these other parties will ramp up their marketing plans in the final weeks. People keep discounting these parties, but there is groundswell against the two majors. The protest vote may surprise in some electorates.

33. Polling says Rowland IS weak Observer. Not saying that Diaz is strong but Rowland is certainly weak.

34. DB how exactly do you get polling to say Rowland is weak

35. Observer, the staffer did actually grill me, and all because I said those dreaded words, ‘swinging voter’. It smacked of desperation on his part, but that’s only my opinion. You had to be there to see it, and all because I asked for a flyer. Needless to say, I didn’t dare say that I think that Abbott’s a good man, but they did ask me what the Liberal Party have ever done for me? Needless to say, I had to agree with them, from a personal standpoint, but as I said to them, I vote from a national standpoint, not from my own personal needs and wants.

    Glen mentioned the 1998 vote, which I found interesting. From memory, and this is the first election that I have lived in Greenway, so I’m not overly familiar with the boundaries back then, but a fair portion of the current electorate was not even developed yet, which makes me wonder what a right-wing, protectionist party like One Nation could have done with the present boundaries and current developments at its absolute peak. 15%? 20% I’m willing to say, maybe, as high as 25%, possible 30%.

    I’ve heard that Diaz, along with a number of other Liberal candidates, are not showing up at the meet and greet the candidate forums. This is not acceptable form, especially from the alternative candidates in Labor-held seats.

    I have seen Rowland campaigning at Seven Hills and Marayong Stations in the past week, along with the Greens at Seven Hills as well. No sign of Diaz and his team at all.

    Diaz has drawn the top slot on the voting form, in the electorate draw, according to the Blacktown Advocate. Rowland is at number five.

36. AFR polls out 51/49 to Michelle rowland

37. That’s probably the best news for the ALP in the last week.

38. Can’t be a weak candidate then DB

39. The only real bright spot for the ALP in the current individual seat polling. Labor ahead 52/48 on primaries of 46% for the Coalition and 44% for the ALP. The internal polling I have seen shows the opposite 2PP position.

    I think somehow that Abbott might be happy to let this one go. Doubt you will see him campaigning here at all.

40. Those numbers don’t sound believable to me, DB. Not so much the Coalition being 2% ahead of the ALP on primary, but the two combined representing 90% of the vote. Are we really to believe, given the popularity issues faced by Labor and Abbott, that both major parties will increase their primary vote by a significant amount? That, in a seat that had 6% Greens and 5% FF/CDF vote in the last election, a combined 7 candidates will fail to get to 11% between them?

    This sort of thing is showing up in polling everywhere. It’s suspicious. I don’t know if it’s a systematic problem in how they’re polling or how they’re eliminating sampling bias, a result of non-major voters (and possibly even Labor voters) being more likely to be “undecided” and pollsters dropping undecideds from the numbers, or something else, but the numbers just don’t make sense, in my view.

    You see a similar thing, for instance, in seats showing 50+% primary vote for the Liberals in places where the Liberals weren’t even expected to win when Gillard was PM.

41. The best campaigner for Labor in this electorate is the Liberal Candidate. I think Rowland should lay low and let the Liberal, DIAZ, gain votes for Labor. Sad to say that this seat will likely fall from Labor off the back of the stench of Labor and a moderate middle of the road local member. Keneally was a rockstar like Rudd but made no difference in Western Sydney. I think the same will apply here and the preferences will almost all flow back to Liberal. Dont know what the greens are doing, though.

42. Pretty much lineball here, libs only lead 51/49. This is set to be close

43. It’d probably be 55/45 if the Libs had a credible candidate.

44. Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 Sample 575 2PP ALP 49

    Too close to call. Could go either way. Suspect that the campaign planned by the Libs next week could result in this moving that way, but it is certainly defendable.

45. Are people really going to vote for a candidate who seems to constantly go AWOL at public events? https://twitter.com/BlacktownNews/status/372284673075847168/photo/1

    If the ALP really can’t retain this seat given how badly Diaz has done then there really is a problem!

46. The libs locked Diaz up and didn’t let him attend the Greenway debate so a cardboard cut out had to do. The cut out probably had more points then Diaz could name

47. The sad thing about Diaz is not that he couldn`t remember the points. It was that he couldn`t make up enough rubbish to at least half spin his way out of it to avoid making the national news. Doesn`t deserve to get elected on that form….. The cut out would have done a better job by the sounds….

48. Its funny. You know he’s not a good candidate when lib volunteers start saying its not about the person its about the party

49. Did you really just say he doesn’t deserve to be elected because he sucks at lying? REALLY?

    He doesn’t deserve to be elected because he is completely incapable of either answering a question or providing a reason why he shouldn’t. You want to know how he could have minimised the issue?

    Like this: “I’m sorry, but I’m just a local candidate. While I’ve read over the policy and found the argument put forward to be compelling, I didn’t consider the details to be important enough to my efforts to represent the people of this seat to be worthy of remembering in sufficient detail to answer your question. I’m here because I want to represent the people of Greenway, and I’m more interested in listening to their opinions and finding the best path for the people of this seat than in trying to recall every detail of every policy that the party has.”

    Had he said something like that, he probably would have won the seat handily. His answer instead showed a lack of political savviness and a lack of real concern for constituents.

50. (that was directed at cyril – didn’t expect Observer to beat me to commenting)

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