Greenway – Australia 2013

1. I suspect that even if Liberal preselection goes to Diaz, a man whom Abbott doesn’t want, the seat will be a cakewalk for the Liberals – barring a dramatic shift in the polls, of course.

2. My mail is that Diaz has withdrawn from preselection. It appears that Abbott got his way in regards to Diaz. Frankly, if Diaz was the preselected candidate, you would see one of the worst mediocrities ever elected to the Australian Parliament. And it would give Labor a chance at winning this seat; a very small one, to be fair. On merit, Michelle Rowland’s the best candidate to represent Greenway, regardless of party allegiance.

3. Internal Polls for a few months in this region suggest Labor’s primary vote is around high 20s. Too far to come back from I believe.

4. I was wrong about Diaz not contesting. He beat Brett Murray, who I believed to be the better candidate quite convincingly in the preselection.

   Already, there has been some good legwork from the Liberal Party with a mass run of leaflets sent to the electorate a couple of weeks ago. I received my copy at Lalor Park, and got another copy where I live in the north-western end of the electorate. A very professional first brochure from the Liberals with an endorsement from Tony Abbott of Diaz as the candidate.

   I have seen Michelle Rowland at Schofields Station on her own handing out leaflets. If DB’s polling is to be believed, Rowland is going to be smashed, through no great fault of her own. Labor have some major problems in Western and South-Western Sydney that no effective politicians such as Rowland, Chris Bowen, Jason Clare or Tony Burke can fix at the moment.

5. DLH – Clare will survive. Burke probably will. I don’t think Bowen or Ferguson can win unless something greatly changes and the loss of Bowen would be terrible for the Labor Party.

   The polling I have seen here is from about 6 weeks ago before this last leadership fiasco and it was a composite poll of Lindsay and Greenway with 500 people phone polled. MoE would be around 5% or so. I suspect the numbers in Lindsay are worse than Greenway although I don’t have breakdowns which separate the two seats. The Coalition were on 56% primary and Labor were 27%. Even with a high MoE, Labor can’t win either of these seats unless something drastically changes. Interestingly, KAP polled 6% which was higher than the Greens. On voter intention preference distribution, the Coalition were 65/35 ahead on 2PP.

6. Diaz’s election office opened at Seven Hills this afternoon by Malcolm Turnbull according to the Blacktown Advocate. The Liberal Party showing better commitment to on-the-ground work than the 2010 election in this seat, from all appearances.

   I agree with you, DB, that Clare will survive. The boundaries point towards a relatively safer hold for him, while Burke, I’m less sure of, at the moment. The fact that we are talking about Werriwa and McMahon as potential to probable losses for Labor point towards a huge problem for Labor in its former – think it’s safe to say this now – heartland. I also have Fowler as a loss for Labor as well, if the Liverpool City Council Elections were any indicator.

7. Diaz, I believe, was doing the meet and greet at Stanhope Gardens Shopping Centre today. Noticed his poster boards on the way home.

8. Still reckon Labor will lose Greenway and by some margin.

9. I reckon Labor would have a better chance of holding this than Lindsay, as it’s more diverse and has more of a Labor base around Blacktown.

   But it’s still probably too marginal for Labor to hold even with Rudd.

10. Out of the marginal NSW candidates for the libs, Jaymes Diaz has the least likes at 282 compared to Michelle Rowland 1,447. Interesting considering this is one of the seats the coalition need to win a majority, you would think Jaymes Diaz would see some support online

11. I think that Labor has no real chance of holding onto Greenway, sadly. The newer parts of the electorate around the Ponds and Stanhope Gardens heavily voted Liberal in the Council Elections, and the ward surrounding Lalor Park and Kings Langley didn’t have a positive vote for Labor either. Rowland is in huge trouble, which is a shame, considering that she is the best candidate on merit.

    After work yesterday, I was privileged to see the setup at Chifley Park in Lalor Park for Michelle Rowland’s campaign launch while waiting to be picked up from the Lalor Park Shopping Centre. There were balloons and the same signs from 2010 for Michelle’s campaign. The balloons were also hanging outside IGA. Apparently Ed Husic was there for the launch, and I thought I saw Alan Pendleton as well, although I couldn’t quite see Leo Kelly, but it was in the early stages before Michelle showed up when I was there. I also saw an AMWU vehicle park in the shopping centre. I didn’t see a lot of the general public at this gathering; indeed, one said to me that it was a pity that work had just finished for me, because I could have gotten a free feed.

    I also saw Rowland signs outside the Filipino Takeaway just below Blacktown Station on my way to Westpoint this morning.

12. DLH, those numbers you analysed for council elections were during Gillard’s reign. You don’t think it’s conceivable that Rudd’s return could boost Labor’s chances here and at least be in with a fight? No chance is a big call.

13. I disagree, I think labor has a huge chance on holding onto this seat for many reasons.
    I had a look on the facebook page and compared this years posters to last years and there are differences, they are similar but they aren’t the same.
    The local elections in western sydney weren’t great anywhere and I’d say the Gillard factor did play a role. In the areas, you mentioned new families, well Michelle is more intouch with the electorate being a new mum herself and starting a young family. Kings Langley has generally always been the safe liberal part of the electorate, its why Abbott campaigns there the most. I urge alot of people to check out the photo of the gathering, I was blown away by how many people went, and they are mostly residents not members of the party.
    Jaymes Diaz is still not liked in the area and has a huge communication problem and is not liked by Abbott either, its the reason it took so long to preselect him. Gillard also played a big role in the swing against labor in western sydney at the federal election, ethnic groups didn’t like her sadly because of gender and no religion. Rudd resonates with them. Rowland should also have a sophmore surge which i think gives her a fighting chance, as will Robertson

14. Labor’s main hope is that Diaz isn’t a strong candidate whereas Rowland possibly has a nodder advantage/sophomore surge. Still find it hard to see Labor holding on, but polls could be interesting.

15. Also worth noting stanhope gardens and the other new estates are full of young families who grew up in mitchell and berowra aka vote liberal. This should be the 1st seat the libs take. If they dont then labor wins the election

16. It’s a weird seat though – the south of the seat is still generally Labor IMO. Yes the new housing estates up north has seen this district trend well right, but I dunno if it’s out of reach.

17. Internal polling still showing a reasonably comfortable Coalition win.

18. wats ur definition of comfortable coalition win though?

19. a reasonable swing too them on primaries.

20. Not sure yet DB. In an ordinary year, if you saw an incumbent government running at 50-50 in most national polls only months out from an election, you’d probably expect they’ll get re-elected. Of course, this is no ordinary year, which is why everyone is so confused.

    The biggest unanswered question is whether Rudd’s return is a “honeymoon” or a “homecoming”. If Labor’s primary vote starts to tick over 40% consistently in polling, (and especially if the 2PP vote in QLD stays upwards of 48%) this is going to be a very close election indeed.

21. Lindsay and Greenway will be extraordinarily difficult to hold. They are both areas that had above average swings in the state elections and delivered strong results for the Libs at local council elections.

    In regard to Lindsay, Bradbury, a good local member, has been lucky in that in ’07 there was the Jackie Kelly fake pamphlet debacle and in ’10 the Lib candidate was picked very late (and was arguably a weak candidate for a plumb seat, but I’ll leave that discussion to others).

    If either hold it will be a huge credit to their work as local MPs over these past few years.

    I think the Libs will be banking on these seats to offset loses in QLD and perhaps elsewhere.

22. I certainly agree that the seats will be difficult to hold but despite having small margins, they are both completely different seats.
    The population breakdowns of lindsay and greenway show they are two completely different seats, the issues are also completely different.
    I would say that Lindsay had a sophmore surge and is why Bradbury held the seat. However, the seat had always been marginal and didn’t fall until rudd was leader. I’m sure this will be a worry of holding but I’m sure DB will agree the swing in Lindsay won’t be as big as it was before the leadership chcange.
    Now back on Greenway, its a smaller electorate with a bigger ethnic community. Rudd is a popular leader and unfortunately, the views of some consituents didnt want to vote for a female or athiest or childless and unmarried. This seat did well to have a primary vote in 40s for labor considering they didnt hve incumbency on their side and labor being on the nose in the west. The three stat seats in this electorate are Toongabbie, Riverstone and Blacktown which labor held 2. This seat will be close especially if again there is a large number of minor parties and independent contesting which suprisingly favoured Rowland in the preference flow.
    Out of the two seats, the liberal parties best interest is Lindsay. Greenway isn’t a seat that will be a liberal seat in the longterm and one they can appeal to constituents

23. Lachlan – I was referring to Greenway. Not the country.

24. DB where do you find labor recovering the most in NSW in regards to labor held seats and posssiby seats like macquarie

25. Observer – mainly the safe seats where there were 20% swings on such as Blaxland and Chifley, but the more marginal seats are still trending to the Liberals in NSW. I still reckon Labor will lose a handful of seats in western Sydney and perhaps one or two regional ones. Labor could pick up seats such as Macquarie and Gilmore.

26. wats ur view on Kingsford Smith, Reid, Banks, Robertson and the two north coast seats of Richmond and page and also has the dream faded for the libs to gain a hunter seat (Newcastle, Shortland, Hunter, Charlton)

27. The pendulum is the most misleading tool in calculating which seats will go at the election. If we look at the past state and federal elections, we see:

    Australia 2010: most marginal labor seat with an incumbent was Robertson, where there was a swing of nearly 1% against the state trend.

    NT 2012: most marginal labor seat Fannie Bay, big swing to labor.

    WA 2013: Most marginal labor seat, Albany swing against the trend.

    Just because a seat might be marginal doesn’t mean it has to go and Greenway i think can be one of those

28. You know, Observer, it kind of makes sense. If people vote against a party more to send a message than because they seriously don’t want that party in power, as does occasionally happen, then they’re only going to do it if they feel that there’s some safety in doing so. In marginal seats, such people aren’t going to vote in that way because it’s more likely that doing so will push the seat over to the opposition.

    So you might say that it depends on the reason for the swing – if it’s a positive swing towards a party because people like what the party is doing (or their policies), then marginals will indeed be the first to fall. If it’s a negative swing away from a party (and not because they like the other party any better), then marginals will actually be less likely to fall, perhaps (think of it as the “better the devil you know” effect).

    But then, I’d suggest that any marginal seat at this election may be up for grabs, or may be a clear gain/hold for one party, depending on when the election happens and what occurs in the meantime. I don’t think anyone can realistically predict what will happen in a seat like this one, right now.

29. Bob Katter has announced former state independent candidate Anthony Belcastro as his candidate for Greenway
    http://www.blacktownsun.com.au/story/1657169/katter-promises-to-create-jobs-names-greenway-candidate/?cs=1179

    No idea what happened to the other one already listed here, who is also listed on Antony’s site. Neither appear to be on the KAP website at the moment.

    Antony’s site also lists CDP candidate Allan Green.

30. I read recent comments with interest – LNP/ALP battling it out for Greenway. I believe that Palmer United will give everyone a fresh view and voice in Greenway. Catch me out & about getting to know what the residents in Greenway need from their Government. Jodie Wootton – Palmer United Candidate

31. I’ve seen a fair bit happening over the past few weeks in Greenway.

    I agree with Rudd for PM that Rudd’s return will give Labor a boost in the seat, particularly around Blacktown, Lalor Park and Seven Hills where the vote for the Liberals is at its softest. However, the vote north of the M7, excepting possibly Riverstone, is pretty much set in stone, and as much anti-Rudd as they are anti-Gillard. Labor have only one hope of winning this seat, and that is Jaymes Diaz himself.

    Diaz is proving to be utterly pathetic as the candidate. He’s out and about with his signage, don’t get me wrong, but there are issues. I saw him at Schofields Station one morning, and he was dressed in a really unprofessional manner, as far as I could see. His worker was dressed far more appropriately, and Michelle Rowland, who has been at Schofields Station since I last posted in this seat, was dressed like I would expect an MP of the crown to be dressed.

    Both parties are throwing a lot of resources at Greenway, although I have seen more Rowland signs than Diaz signs so far. While the Liberal Party are far better organised this time around, they cannot afford to be outgunned by the Labor Party money-wise. This was a huge factor last time around.

    I note with interest that Belcastro is the KAP candidate. There was somebody else from memory that was named. Perhaps we will find out why that went through. Belcastro is a former LIberal Party member who resigned from the Liberal Party, after Kevin Conolly was preselected as a candidate for the state seat of Riverstone in the 2011 NSW Election. I don’t believe that Belcastro will poll well at all, and will struggle to get 2% of the vote.

    I’m surprised that Allan Green is running again. After his defeat at the Blacktown City Council Elections, I thought he might have called time. I see this as a yardstick for him to see whether it’s worth running in the 2016 BCC Elections.

    Overall, I still hold the view that Michelle Rowland is the best candidate for Greenway, regardless of party. However, I haven’t seen any signs to indicate that she is going to win yet. Liberal 54/46 2PP as of now in my view.

32. I would call myself a swinging voter in Greenway. Problem with Diaz is he’s a bit like Abbot in that I don’t like him personally but it’s either him or dysfunctional Labor. Plus anyone linked with Blacktown council has to have a dodgy background to me anyway. As for Rowland, I have no idea what she’s done for our electorate as all her leaflets are mainly just drivel about what Labor have done nationally and nothing about local stuff.

33. I don’t know how anyone can be a swinging voter in Greenway after that interview with Diaz on 10 news

34. Care to elaborate for those who didn’t see it, Observer?

35. you can see it on youtube greenway liberal candidate on 10 news. Basically he sounded dull, kept going you know umm… etc, he contradicted himself multiple times, he was literally scripted, he couldn’t name party policy that he mentioned (6 point plan, he named one and refused to name the others when asked) and then when asked about liberal party and company tax he just stood there, nodded like abbott during $h!t happens and walked away

36. Here is the video of the Liberal candidates television interview:

    http://youtu.be/W07iytEr9lY

37. Pretty poor effort from Diaz being interviewed by John Hill. If the Liberals are relying on a strong candidate to get them over the line, they could struggle.

    From experience, John Hill’s a good guy and not that intimidating an interviewer.

38. Its a danger for the libs if the first poor performing candidate of the campaign is one a marginal seat. Diaz has always been a weak performer which is why I have always thought this seat won’t fall as others have suggested

39. Seems people missed this from 1 week ago, http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/07/28/liberal-controversy-after-tweets-from-blacktown-meet-and-greet/

    These type of allegations are always hard when it is “he said blah, blah” without a recording. Especially when the person was a former candidate from the other side of the political spectrum.

40. Wow… that interview…

    Seriously, he has to be the poster child for the claim that Abbott’s Liberal Party is nothing but slogans. You could so clearly hear the slogans and catchphrases themselves – “cost of living”, “stop the boats”, etc.

    At the very least, his handlers could have given him a few variations on the phrases, to keep it from sounding like he was parroting it all. He could have at least used phrases like “financial burden”, and elaborated a little further on things like “higher energy prices”. But I’m guessing his instruction was “turn every question into either cost of living or boat arrivals”, and he’s not smart enough to understand the use of subtlety.

41. Polling running at 56/44 in this seat.

42. It was a pretty awful video that I imagine would cost votes of the YouTube generation. Question is, how much of the electorate will actually watch it?

43. One of his first comment – “give voters the government they deserve” sums it up……. Isn’t democracy a wonderful thing!

44. DB “Polling running at 56/44 in this seat.”
    Which way? Internal LIB polling, correct?

45. Coalition ahead.

46. That video was not a good outcome for Diaz. It’s gone viral not only here in Australia, but overseas with the Huffington Post as well.

    I’ll give Diaz credit for being unfailingly polite during the interview. While it wasn’t an intimidating line of questioning, the fact that Diaz didn’t lose his cool completely, impressed me. I still don’t regard Diaz as the best Liberal candidate for Greenway, and in a head-to-head with Michelle Rowland is lacking. Reading in the SMH about the quality of candidates that were approached to stand, or did stand for preselection, said everything to me about the iron grip that Jess Diaz has on the Blacktown Liberal branches.

    I saw Diaz with his team at Seven Hills Station, and the mood was surprisingly upbeat (I didn’t know of the video at the time). People were not keen to stop and talk with Diaz (running late for trains would do that for people), but those who took flyers from my observation were taking them from the staffers mostly, and ignoring Diaz. This would indicate, on a raw level, that he is not liked, but there are voters who will be voting Liberal regardless. DB’s internal polling being a good indicator of that.

47. It’s a bit early to judge what impact the video had. Give it a few days. However, it’s a little bit embarrassing that the liberals couldn’t find someone better than Diaz.

48. I think it won’t be a big deal unless sunrise use it

49. See Makin in 2004 Lib gain unless strong overall swing to Labor.

50. May have shot himself in the foot a bit, this thing’s gone viral. It’s not like he’s just started out, he contested the last election and has loads of time to hone his skills in regards to being able to talk to the media and the public about policy. He’s like the kid who first picks up the books on the night before the exam and wonders why he failed miserably.

Comments are closed.