Grayndler – Australia 2013

1. Observer and Tom Walsh brought up 2010 a few comments back…

   Even though I do think the result will be similar, three things are substantially different this time:

   1. Ongoing gentrification. It is phenomenal, astounding… as anyone who is still (forlornly) trying to buy property in the inner west knows. Many of the newcomers are natural Liberals. The ageing BoHos (“Bourgeoise Bohemians”) who once settled in the inner west are also moving on – to Ballina and other nursing home electorates. They have also got quite crusty and many are turning quite reactionary in their dotage… Witness their support for so many anti-progressive Nimby issues.

   2. Unlike 2010 the Liberals are actually standing and trying seriously. Witness David Hunt’s ongoing energy… Last time they fielded a 19 year old who was near invisible on the hustings.

   3. Not all the anti Labor candidates will preference the Greens as they all did in 2010. Certainly not PUP. The Oz story posted above suggest the Libs may not either. That’s yet to be seen, I think its still likely they will. If a 69 year old ex-Trot goes to Canberra, it will be because the Libs want that to happen.

   Liberal voters in Grayndler should remember the immortal words of Johnny Rotten. “Ever get the feeling you’ve been taken?”

2. 4. Albo is the Deputy PM with an increased profile for a popular PM

3. Fairfax article on the Greens v ALP fight, http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/greens-brace-for-big-fight-on-albaneses-home-turf-20130808-2rkop.html

4. Apparently according to a firm called Lonergan Research (anyone heard of them?) Labor are on 47%, Liberal 28%, Greens 22%. 2PP Lab/Lib of 66/34.

   http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/09/greens-biggest-losers-poll

5. Based on these figures 2PP, what would be the result if Greens preferences flowed to the Libs?

6. David – even if the Greens put Liberals ahead of Labor on their how-to-vote cards, there would be significant leakage from Greens voters who didn’t wish to do so. Labor needs about 15% of Greens preferences based on that poll, and even when Greens preference Labor, about 20% typically leaks to the Liberals. And given that the Liberals are planning to put the Greens last, at least in this seat, I doubt that the Greens will be preferencing the Liberals.

7. Given that Green voters wouldn’t follow it, the same.

8. The Greens won’t preference the Liberals in Grayndler. Enough of that.

9. On the poll: spot on my prediction…

   On David Hunt’s notion that Greens will preference the Libs: It is a fantasy – one which I thought had been comprehensively knocked out of this debate about 101 comments ago.

   But I do understand where David is coming from. In Rozelle, a part of the world David and I know well, the Greens and Liberals have indeed found they have much in common. They’ve joined forces to prevent any foreigners (apartment dwellers) “invading” the quaint, secluded (read exclusive) “village” of Rozelle.

   But on preferences? David, know your political history. The Greens in this area are either BoHo or come from the extreme far-left. Both groups distinguish themselves from 95% of Australians by affecting a deep and abiding hatred of “Tories”. Hall Greenland himself is spectacularly hard-line, hard left. And (you’d like this), obsessionally anti-development as well. When he was on Leichhardt Council he tried to impose a town plan of nothing higher than 2 stories – a blanket ban across the entire inner west. Not long ago he was accusing his own party leadership of being way too conservative. Your suggestion of a deal is a dream.

10. That poll will be a test of the much discussed accuracy/inaccuracy of phone polling companies to correct for large numbers of people without landlines.

11. Chris, why this poll in particular when no polling (as far as I’m aware) calls mobiles?

12. To answer David Hunt’s question, even assuming close to 80% Green to Lib, Labor wins with 53% TPP.

13. Sounds like a fair bit of right wing astro turfing is going on as usual on the web. Tis starting to get boring…….

14. Coco Bunter: Fair enough to be smug about the poll (yes, you were right), but I will take issue with you about the term “Boho” for bourgeoise bohemian. The correct acronym is Bobo. It comes from a book by David Brooks called “Bobos in Paradise. The New Upper Class and how they got there.” This is from Wikipedia: “The word bobo… is an abbreviated form of the words bourgeois and bohemian, suggesting a fusion of two incompatible social classes (the counter-cultural, hedonistic and artistic bohemian, and the white collar, capitalist bourgeois).”

    Plenty of them in Grayndler – now one of the nation’s richest, electorates, and (supposedly, at least this is claimed by Hall Greenland) paradoxically one of its most “left wing.”

    Kylie Turner: If you are “bored” by politics, what are you doing at Tallyroom?

15. The Greens would need to get a repeat swing to make up for the fact that the Coalition will probably preference them last this time around and most of that will have to come directly from Labor.

16. PJ – There has been a lot of dispute about how relevant phone polling is these days, when so many people only having mobiles. There was an intense discussion on one of these threads, but I can’t find it at the moment. This problem is only going to get worse. I think with the demographics of Grayndler there would be a higher than average number of young people and students who don’t have landlines (whether they are actually enrolled where they live is another matter). So this poll seems like it might be a good test for the polling companies methodologies and might offer a hint of how well phone polling will work in the future.

17. Generally I’m sceptical of the Bob Ellis school of thought on mobiles/landlines but I would be a bit concerned in the specific case of Grayndler (or other similar electorates).

    I doubt there is a significant difference between young people with landlines and young people without across the country but when you look at an electorate like Grayndler with a very high rate of rentals, and the types of rentals where people are discarding landlines entirely in favour of mobiles, and those types of people (who make up a significant part of the community, including myself) would skew heavily towards the Greens.

    I don’t think that potential bias would put the Greens in an election-winning position, but could narrow the Lib-Grn difference.

18. These polling companies’ reputations are at stake if they get their polls greviously wrong. The ABS collects statistical data on how many households have landlines or not, so polling companies would weight their data as a matter-of-course.

    In addition, in Australia there is no disincentive to call mobile phones unlike in the US, where the public is often charged for receiving phone calls, so the polling companies would be calling mobile phones just as much as if they were calling landlines.

    I don’t disagree with the results of the ReachTEL poll, unfortunately.

19. The notion that Grayndler is full of “shared houses” like the one in “Not Suitable For Children” with cool “leaning Green” hipsters, is, I’m afraid, a romantic fantasy…

    Not withstanding your circumstances Ben, Grayndler is fast becoming one of the richest electorates in the the country. Property prices are going through the stratosphere and it’s only a matter of time before it skews Liberal. The recent poll indicates that’s already happening.

    It will take a while, but we will all live to see it. I have already watched Balmain change.

20. Almost half of the population in Grayndler are renters.

    I didn’t say anything about share houses or not suitable for children – it can just as much be true of people with young children who don’t live in share houses. Indeed it can also be true for people who own their home.

    There is also a massive difference between the northern and eastern end of the electorate, and the southern and western end, when it comes to property prices, etc.

21. Thanks Bob the Builder, you are right. But “Bobo” is not a familiar term with anyone except those who have read David Brooks very amusing book. “BoHo” for bohemian is in far more general usage. And everyone understands that todays version of that section of the population are wealthy (or the children of the wealthy) and mainly Anglo. Eg. the current “cool” population of Newtown. They all look the same, dress the same, come from the same background (private school) and adopt the same conformist voting patterns.

22. And once more I have to concede that I was wrong: OK, so the Libs will NOT now preference the Greens. Which means that the 69- years old Greens candidate for Grayndler will have to find another superannuation plan.

    I’ll stick to my guns about the order of 1st pref votes in Grayndler though: (1) Lab (2) Lib (3) Grn – which makes the Libs decision irrelevant anyway. And interesting that all the media focus on today’s announcement has been on what this means in Melbourne. Sorry Ben, not Grayndler, no chance at all now…

    As to all Christine Milne’s bravado suggestion that “the major parties are ganging up” (sob), well that’s silly. You can bet your bottom dollar that the Greens will get Labor’s prefs in Grayndler and everywhere else. For what they’re worth…

23. Coco Bunter
    Commiserations!!. You are not alone though. For what it’s worth i’d have given all the preferences in the world to see the back of” ” Tanya the terrible”. Yeah it’s personal….. It is still a mistake i reckon.

24. Ironically everyone on that Abbott facebook wall post was fully supportive of that decision. I doubt there are many Liberal voters that would really want to preference Greens over Labor.

25. Yeah, the ‘major party preference dealing’ rhetoric by Senator Milne was pretty silly posturing. Just further evidence that they’re as much a political party as the rest.

    I don’t really think Grayndler was in play anyway post-Rudd. Let alone Sydney (and Tanya is brilliant in my opinion, just saying). I reckon the Greens will still come second in Batman, but candidate selection was the key failure in Grayndler. I don’t know much about the Sydney candidate, but she’s not the star candidate that they will need to pull above the Libs.

26. It will be interesting to see if the Greens hold their numbers in Melbourne (even increase them) and Batman, but fall in Grayndler. Like NSW Labor, the NSW Greens (in particular the inner west branches) are in desperate need of a federal intervention. How on earth was a candidate like Hall Greenland selected?

27. Hmmm. Many of us are trying to work out how Anthony Albanese was selected. Particularly after all the……

28. Its great to have a great candidate like Cedric Spencer (Lib) but a lot of it is about projection and the federal parties policies. Then there is the goodwill factor local vs collective. I think the fact that the only party to declare their preferences has been the Liberals. Somewhat costly, the Libs have clearly stated what they are doing.This is by mutual request a closed topic particularly lobbying but you have to question those just three weeks left in the campaign not declaring their hand. As a Grayndler voter I would want to know, not five minutes before polling day. Neither Australia nor Grayndler is a poker game to be divided up into spoils. For those looking at Grayndler in this election and the next one, the answer is to be found.

29. “but you have to question those just three weeks left in the campaign not declaring their hand. ”
    There is a huge irony here.

    I’m not really clear on some aspects of what you are stating but I’d have to say that if it was a choice between knowing a parties full election costings or their prefs 3 weeks out, I think one is obviously much more important than the other.

30. Costings is important as it is another aspect for the public to be better informed and know whats going on. In the preamble to my comment, fate for a candidate can be measured in a number of different ways. We can definitely add costings. Quite a long list for the poor voter.

31. David Hunt
    Posted August 18, 2013 at 5:47 PM

    I don’t get that comment. I would have thought Albanese is one of the better parliamentary performers in the Labor Party. He tends to rile the Liberals and I hear he is a genuinely good bloke. As a Liberal, I very much respect Mr Albanese and I’m glad the Liberals are preferencing him.

32. I was simply pointing out quite seperately from my other comments, what a voter has to consider. It has been acknowledged already many postings ago, voters can elect another party without intentionally meaning to do so. I was genuinely sympathising with the voters on a non partisan basis despite my support in early postings, about the actual decision for the voter. There is a voter at the start and finish of it all. Not going into Anthony Albanese again in response. Voters can decide but can they really directly vote as they intend when they walk up. Policies, costings, preferences are just some of the equation. That was my broad comment.

33. Albo is the biggest waste of money to the taxpayer. Overseas at the moment. Best of luck sorting out your problem.

34. Based on the senate preferences, then this is the way your vote in Grayndler will go:

    Bullet Train for Australia Party – to the Greens; Christian Democrat – to Libs; PUP – to Libs; Greens – to Labor.

    Liberal preferences won’t be counted, the decision which seems to be causing David Hunt so much anguish is irrelevant.

    The hope that there would be some sort of Liberal-Greens preference deal in Grayndler always seemed a bit weird to me… (Sorry, no disrespect intended David).

35. Hi DB

    I agree with you, a good opposition with excellent candidates keeps the house in order. With the Liberals preferencing Anthony he will definitely keep own and other parties on their toes, and working for a better Australia, and thats what we all want.

    It will be interesting what strategy the Labor party comes up with over the next 18.5 days, It seems the wheels are falling off. Maybe they should roll out Anthony in more interviews he definitley keeps the oppostion on their toes, especially Christopher Pine (he is painful).

    I dont feel the election has hit full throttle yet seems a little slow !

36. I agree, we have only seen the entree, the main course will start next week. Politicians say its the last two week that count (Australians cannot concentrate for longer than that!).

37. I have to agree that Labor isn’t making proper use of Mr Albanese. He comes across as truly genuine, thoughtful, and respectful, and would thus be a good way to draw positive attention to Labor. I think that, if given free rein to campaign separately from the basic Labor campaign structure, he would be able to do a great job. And yet, we have barely even seen him.

38. I live in Ashfield and you would barely know the Greens even exist. Are they deliberately ignoring this part of Grayndler? Ashfield has the highest population of any suburb in the electorate but then again the Greens have next to no traction with the Chinese and/or Indian communities that have a strong presence in the suburb. Ashfield is not Newtown and the Greens appear to have NO IDEA how to adapt or even appeal to these ethnic groups.

39. The Greens constantly poll poorly in the Ashfield area. From my understanding Hall Greenland has no ‘connections’ with migrant communities in the electorate. His policies are also the complete opposites of what new migrants want from life in Australia.

    Hall Greenland hates apartments = Chinese and Indian migrants generally love apartments.
    Hall Greenland hates apartments = Chinese and Indian migrants generally love high rise.

    Whats more, Is Hall Greenland going to preach to such migrant groups about the evils of economic growth?

40. Andrew, you have hit on something that has been noticed elsewhere – the Greens are the most Anglo party in the country. They have traction mainly in areas only where the residents are rich and white. And ageing (Byron, Balmain…). But the inner west is changing, its BoHo past (represented by the Greens) is fading, especially in areas like Ashfield, Rhodes and Burwood – just outside the now highly gentrified “hipster” (what a joke) enclaves.

    Ps. Hall will NEVER stop preaching about the evils of economic growth. It won’t matter that no one is listening.

41. Have been enjoying the fact that my local (News Ltd) newspaper is extremely angry at the Libs in Grayndler – for refusing to participate in one of their hugely useless “public forums.” The one they have arranged at Marrickville Town Hall is only days before the election, when almost everyone will have made up their minds anyway (If they haven’t already).

    And if the past is any guide, there won’t be a single person there who is part of some micro faction of the Socialist Alliance, a Stop the Coal warrior, or people who want to scream abuse at Albanese about PNG and refugees.

    For once I agree with the Libs. Stay away…

42. oops, I meant “is NOT part of some micro faction…” etc

43. Come on Coco Bunter! Surely you’re not fooling anyone (except probably yourself) with the following revealing line from your post:

    “For once I agree with the Libs.”

    Sure…because the Libs/Labs are in such violent disagreement about the need for Australia to raise more revenue from those that can afford to pay if we are to foster a caring society that looks after people and the environment, and reduces the gap between the rich and the poor.

    If the ALP actually differed so much from the Libs, you’d probably be spending a lot more time attacking them, rather than the Greens. At least the Libs have enough self-belief to fight for what they believe in, rather than simply following what’s considered popular (or else what you were forced into as the price of forming Government).

44. For the sake of completeness, let me list some of the violent policy differences between the modern ALP and the Liberals:

    1) refugee policies jointly based on cruelty;
    2) refusing to see marriage equality as a matter of discrimination;
    3) condemning single parents and the unemployed to poverty to bring the budget back to surplus slightly earlier;
    4) cutting university funding to bring the budget back to surplus slightly earlier;
    5) massively expanding coal exports and pandering to the interests of big business; and
    6) clinging to a woefully inadequate 5% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target.

45. Cedric Spencer (or someone speaking on his behalf – his “media advisor”) is claiming the the Inner West Courier “snubbed” them, not the other way around as printed on their front page last week. And that the News Ltd outlet is biased against the Liberal Party. Huh?!

    http://www.ciaomagazine.com.au/inner-west-whispers-217/

    Second item, read the comments thread, political junkies… Make of that what you will.

46. Andrew
    Not to worry mate. It is hard to see how any part of Ashfield LGA will remain in Grayndler after the next re- distribution. Appreciated your insights into the area. cheers

47. As I understand it, there are a number of requests for Anthony Albanese to resign. Obviously, given the nature of timing and the seriousness of all positions, Mr Albanese is in no hurry. As per the Independent article this week but before the ICAC Ian McDonald finding today.

48. As I understand it you are engaging in your ongoing, poorly written smear against the Deputy PM without any substantive specific info, as per usual.

    Seriously, why do you bother?

49. It is not a smear campaign but an observation as a voter in Grayndler. Mr Albanese cannot dispute the facts and for clarity I will list three links to support my comments. The calls to resign are seen by others that are dissatisfied with whats happened. No one is suggesting what so ever that Anthony had a stake in either Mt Penney or the Doyle lease. However Anthony Albanese was there shoring up Ian McDonald with Doug Cameron. If Doug Cameron can apologise, then why is is it beneath Anthony Albanese to follow suite to the people of NSW? When you add the other mistakes up too, maybe its time for a change.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/doug-cameron-anthony-albanese-opposed-push-to-strip-ian-macdonald-of-preselection-icac-told/story-e6frg6nf-1226606710798

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/a-career-taken-to-pieces-20130215-2eijh.html

    http://www.thedeadlynewt.com/if-rudd-is-serious-about-cleaning-up-nsw-labor-then-albanese-and-cameron-need-addressing/

    The debate will rage on and it will be an interesting final week as wse move on to more pertainent topics on number crunching!

    All the best.

50. Why does he bother? Good question, but David Hunt has sent material with Liberal Party branding to various local media outlets – presumably in the naive hope that they will publish it. I doubt that he is actually employed by the party or candidate in any official capacity (if he is, Cedric Spencer is in trouble); but he has sought to represent himself as a Liberal spokesman. The material – some of it the absurd smear he repeats here – only makes him look over-enthusiatic amateur. I am being generous in that assessment. David, get a grip.

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