Fraser – Australia 2013

ALP 14.2%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Leigh, since 2010.

Geography
Fraser covers the northern suburbs of Canberra. The two ACT electorates are neatly divided along the Molonglo River and Lake Burley Griffin, with Fraser covering the key suburbs of Civic, Belconnen and Gungahlin. Fraser also covers the Jervis Bay Territory.

History
The Australian Capital Territory first elected an MP from 1949 onwards, although this MP was only given full voting rights in 1968.

Fraser was created in 1974 when the ACT gained a second seat, and the existing electorate was divided into Fraser and Canberra. The ACT gained a third electorate, Namadgi, at the 1996 election

Fraser was held by John Langmore from 1984 to 1996. Langmore resigned in late 1996 and was replaced by Steve Dargavel at a 1997 by-election.

Dargavel’s parliamentary career was short-lived, with Namadgi being abolished at the 1998 election. Dargavel was defeated for preselection by Bob McMullan, then member for the neighbouring seat of Canberra.

Bob McMullan served four terms in Fraser in addition to his one term in Canberra, and retired in 2010.

The seat was won by ANU economics professor Andrew Leigh, running for the Labor Party.

Candidates

  • Darren Churchill (Democrats)
  • Elizabeth Lee (Liberal)
  • Andrew Leigh (Labor)
  • Freddy Alcazar (Palmer United Party)
  • Jill Ross (Rise Up Australia)
  • Sam Huggins (Bullet Train)
  • Adam Verwey (Greens)

Assessment
Fraser is a safe Labor seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Leigh ALP 51,092 45.81 -5.29
James Milligan LIB 36,148 32.41 +1.18
Indra Esguerra GRN 22,126 19.84 +6.46
Quintin Hedges-Phillips SEC 2,175 1.95 +1.95

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Leigh ALP 71,613 64.20 -0.87
James Milligan LIB 39,928 35.80 +0.87

 

Polling places in Fraser at the 2010 federal election. Belconnen in orange, Gungahlin in blue, North Canberra in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Fraser at the 2010 federal election. Belconnen in orange, Gungahlin in blue, North Canberra in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into the three districts in the northern half of Canberra. The largest proportion of voters live in the Belconnen, along with those in Gungahlin and North Canberra, also known as the ‘inner north’.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, varying from 57.6% in Gungahlin to 71% in North Canberra.

The Greens vote varied from 14.3% in Gungahlin to 27.9% in North Canberra.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Belconnen 17.76 65.29 42,904 38.46
North Canberra 27.94 70.95 21,119 18.93
Gungahlin 14.30 57.59 16,822 15.08
Other votes 20.20 61.67 30,696 27.52
Two-party-preferred votes in Fraser at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Fraser at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Fraser at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Fraser at the 2010 federal election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Interesting to see what happens in the ACT – suspect here the swing might be less than elsewhere on the grounds that the likely impact on the ACT of a change of government is likely to be substantial and everyone here knows it. Will the turkeys vote for Christmas? as the saying goes

  2. I suspect there may still be a small swing against the incumbent in Fraser. Voters are starting to realise that a safe seat does not bring pork.

  3. Well the ALP has everything going for them in the ACT. Sophmore surges in both seats, libs planning major public servant cuts and I don’t think Zed is an asset at all

  4. The ACT really does need to revert to 3 seats as existed between 96-98, that would help some of the ‘safe’ seat dynamics of being ignored. It really is unfair that these ACT seats have over 110K voters while some seats elsewhere can be half that number.

    Another way to look at it is that both Tas & ACT have similar pops. Tas is guaranteed 5 seats by virtue of being an original state of the Commonwealth yet the ACT only has 2.

    At some stage we need to make unequal representation that is a consequence from forming the Commonwealth equitable for all in both the HoR and the Senate. However, given that we can’t even get both majors to agree on a referendum to recognising local govt then I guess it won’t be happening for a long time………

  6. @Observer – I agree that Zed is not an asset for the Libs. As an aside I think he needs to realise that Senators need to campaign in the whole of the ACT, not just the seat where they live.

Comments are closed.