Forde – Australia 2013

1. We should wait and see what the other seat polls say.

   If they’re saying 60-40 in Forde but Labor winning Hinkler or something….then we know it’s rubbish.

2. Yes Observer but Beattie has barely been a candidate and hasn’t got media spotlight that he eventually will get as he starts to gather momentum in his own electorate which is probably behind because he hasn’t yet had an opportunity to tell Forde why they should get his vote.

   It’s wishful thinking for the LNP to think they can get seats in QLD, they will have to pour resources in securing their own seats and labor has better quality candidates in those two labor marginal seats.

   Well sorry DB but to suggest Forde is like any qld seat. It’s an odd seat it’s not really in the Brisbane suburbs not really in the Gold Coast, it’s an odd seat and I honestly wouldn’t read the Forde result as an indicator of QLD and its odd you would think that DB

3. Sorry first sentence should be yes DB not yes observer

4. http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/can_beattie_win_forde/

   Good points raised, particularly on the recent polls that have come out for this electorate

5. Wow!! That is a huge set of bad numbers for the ALP. Unlike the Oz’s numbers on the Central Coast seats of Robertson & Dobell which one may be slightly sceptical of the spin due ot the publishers, the Guardian objectively puts this in the light it deserves….”Labor is haemorrhaging support ”

   Adds to my thoughts that Rudd went too early and rushed it. The ALPS should have shown another 4-5 weeks worth of good governing and spent a bit more time working out their campaign as the LNP have some real weak points which could be more ventilated with consistent messaging.

6. Thank God. Observer, you know who you are.

7. righteo just make a remark like that so you don’t have to respond to facts presented, no more no less from a hack

8. What do you want me to respond to Observer? Ask away.

9. no you put a statement to me about Beattie but obviously you agree with my response so continue on in different seats

10. You have to love the partisan denial. This one, Lindsay, central Coast. To deny the overall evidence is silly

11. I can’t see anything that Peter Brent has written refuting the finding of these polls. Perhaps his judgment that Labor would probably win the election might be a little off. I bet he wished he had have seen these polls before he wrote that article. He has been away a couple of weeks and my, how things seems to have changed, particularly in Forde, but also in Lindsay among others which will be released tomorrow.

    Anyway, the point being, it looks like Forde is probably gone for Labor (possibly by a fair bit)and given that was the second most marginal Coalition held seat in QLD, one must question whether Labor can actually win seats off the Coalition in QLD or will it actually be the other way around? There was another published poll recently in Griffith showing a 4.5% swing against Rudd. There was also a poll published in Fisher which put the LNP:ALP at 3:1. All coincidence? I’ll let you decide.

12. Well DB maybe like every other election expert, he doesn’t rely on polls to make a judgement call on the election.

    What he is saying is yes Forde will be extremely difficult for labor and probably backs why Beattie is running in this seat, someone with a high profile and their polling probably suggested that this would be the most difficult seat for labor to win so it makes sense to put Beattie in that seat. I think this seat will be decided later on in the campaign when Beattie has a chance to communicate his message in Forde.

    Gotta laugh at the LNP member here criticising Beattie for not being from the electorate, maybe he forgets who the member for Ashgrove is

13. I also notice there was only a 0.01% to the LNP on the primary vote which probably explains why there is such a high primary vote for the LNP

14. Observer, I suspect if we see a few polls showing 53+/47 or thereabouts, Mr Brent might change his tune. He doesn’t have to be right every time. Nor do I.

    This weekends polls will be quite revealing I think.

    The Liberals have built up the biggest warchest of all time. Labor is broke. The last 2 weeks will be full of Liberal policy announcements and adds which show Rudd’s former Ministers (and current ones as well) bagging the crap out of him. Honestly, that is going to be difficult to overcome. And don’t discount the possibility of the ALP imploding thanks to someone like Swan telling it as it is.

15. I have worked in this seat and it is a strange one. It has a lot of ‘country’ areas, as well as the outer suburban mortgage belt.

    There are pockets of hardcore LNP support in the country areas and because of that I must say I was surprised when Labor took it in 2007 – I didn’t think KRudd would be that popular.

    The outer suburban areas are hard to pick and I agree with the analysis that this seat will continue to show wild swings in the years ahead. This time it will come down to whether they prefer the local boy or the hardline anti-refugee policies of Tony Abbott?

    I wouldn’t put too much weight on the recent poll though – unless the poll methodology was very carefully weighted for the strong pockets of LNP support in the country areas, it could easily be thrown off by the distribution of respondents.

    While I have been surprised in this seat before, I don’t think the LNP will improve on their result from 2010 – I think if they win it they will just squeak home.

16. MDMConnell – your comment at 5.07pm is on the money. Need to wait for the next few days and see what the deal is.

17. DB, it sounds like you have some inside info on what the marginal polling coming out tomorrow might be? You sound pretty confident it will be good for the LNP.

18. DB that is absolute crap, the ALP have reached their 2010 campaign total in one week and I’m not even going to go into how much they got when Rudd came back. Not to mention the union fund which will fuel the anti-abbott feel. Ah yes liberal party suppository of wisdom (AKA their policy) is widely unpopular. Their broadband plan..hated, education plan….they keep backflipping, the list goes on and that just what they have announced. It would be foolish for the liberal party to start being negative now, they made a huge mistake in not making sure most voters see a positive add and those who have, were told how bad Australia is, its weak move by the libs. If voters first media attention is a negative ad run by the libs it will put them off voting for them which is likely because they chose to barely spend on positive promotion. And if you seriously think that people will listen to those ministers that bagged Rudd (Swan, Conroy, Emerson) then you are in for disappointment. I think you need to look at how Abbott has acted this past week to draw a valid conclusion on who will implode, Mr Tony Gaffe Abbott is more likely to implode. And just remember Swan is running in a marginal seat, do you seriously think he would ruin the parties name and risk being humiliated by losing his seat

19. DB – “Also, the Lonergan/Guardian poll is not a Robopoll”

    I’m telling you right now, you’re wrong. My household was called by Lonergan. It was an automated poll, no operator.

20. Observer – sorry, but I am wetting myself laughing! I can’t help it. I’m not entering into a debate on policy. This is not the place. I wouldn’t disrespect Ben Raue by doing so. Such desperation; such straw clutching. I’m sorry but it’s time for a change, not because of, but despite Abbott.

    I cannot let this discussion pass without a reminder on what one famous observer wrote on August 9, 2013 at 5.36pm under Forde…..and I quote ” The LNP underestimate Beattie and his ability to cut through BS lines that the libs are notorious for and know it”. Yes, Beattie is underestimated by the LNP. According to the current polls the ‘cut through’ man is going to take the ALP to possibly their second worst defeat in this seat of all time. What a disaster for the Australian Labor Party. Why Beattie would run anyway is indescribable. The man hates Rudd. Rudd hates him. Just about everyone hates Rudd in the ALP. Their awkwardness reminded me of a Howard Costello moment.

    Let’s forget the frevolity, back to the subject at hand – Forde. An urban seat between the Gold Coast and Brisbane. Probably representative somewhat to outer metropolitan seats in Brisbane and Sydney and given the polls out today and tomorrow, one could summise that is a fair synopsis.

    As I had summised that Forde would be won for Labor, my number for the Coalition goes back to 86, obviously subject to further “observations”. Dare I suggest that I could be being conservative in that prediction, however, there are 3 weeks to go. Anything is possible. I would not be surprised if the momentum continued and the Coalition got to 90 or so. But I’d be happy with 76.

21. Glen – thankyou. I stand corrected.

22. Don’t try and suck up to Ben I found that really rude and of course you can’t realise that lack of policy will eventually catch up to the libs and will effect the outcome. I’m glad at least you can admit what I called the lib “policy” was accurate.

    Yes and I stand by that comment I made fully, the LNP as always will get cocky and start targeting labor seats and forgetting about their own. Beattie potentially has the chance to not only help Rudd in QLD but help Queensland labor rebuild. Like I’ve said as soon as he secures his seat then he can grab the media attention in Queensland, but your cockiness doesn’t suprise me. You can’t be a hack for both parties you have no idea about labor internally and if you wanna talk hate what about Turnbull and Abbott, got awkward written all over it as well as hate. And even if we do bad in Queensland the real embarrassment is with the liberals, you couldn’t even save Howard’s seat. Talk about poor campaigning.

    Exactly 3 weeks, and unfortunately the liberals negatively and lack of detail will catch up to them, as well as skewed internal polling

23. Surge of support for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $1.48 to $2.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.45 to $1.45. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.40 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.75 to $2.30.

24. Another surge of support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $1.55 to $3.10 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.30 to $1.32.

25. Further support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor eases from $2.50 to $2.65 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.40 to $1.33.

26. I drove down to the Gold Coast on the weekend and WOW – Labor are just funnelling resources into this electorate. I think we saw 4 of the big roadside billboards in a row, all with Labor ads.

27. I see Peter Beattie has been campaigning in Herbert today. It seems a bit strange but I think he is working on the assumption any publicity is good publicity.

28. He probably made commitments to candidates before he himself became a candidate

29. Coalition extends its lead according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $2.65 to $3.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.33 to $1.30.

30. Coalition further extends its lead according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor eases from $3.00 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.30 to $1.20. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $3.10 to $3.65 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.32 to $1.22.

31. I wonder if a party has ever lost a seat when the odds have been at $1.20/2?

32. Lindsay and Greenway at the last election

33. ABC reporting (News 24) that the KAP candidate is upset with the ALP pref deal and is threatening to tear up pref cards on election day.

34. It’s a poor choice on the part of the candidate, because the appearance of a split within the KAP in that seat will negatively impact votes, while simultaneously being pretty much an explicit admission that he doesn’t expect to get into the 2CP.

35. Interesting Observer, It would be interesting to see the stats on bookie odds at the last election.

    Apparently both Labor and Liberal believe this seat is still in the balance.

36. Encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor tightens from $4.00 to $3.50 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.20 to $1.25.

37. Galaxy polls has labor behind only 54/46. 48% for libs on primary, 38 for labor but what might be the case is an understated green vote with the greens down to 5% from 12% in 2010

38. Newspoll of 54/46 is very similar to Reachtel’s 54/46 performed a couple of weeks ago. Out of all the Robo pollster’s I would have the most confidence in Reachtel.

39. Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 Sample 502 ALP 2PP 46%

    One would have to now say, it looks like Forde will be retained by the LNP given a number of polls now held. They could not all be wrong. Internal polling shows much the same thing on smaller samples.

40. Another blow to Labor according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Forde shows support for Labor slips from $3.65 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.22 to $1.20.

41. Further blow to Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $3.50 to $4.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.25 to $1.18.

42. Pretty clear that the markets don’t give Beattie any chance which is basically what DB has said. I still think that this one will be close on the night.

43. Gap continues to widen between the major parties according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor eases from $4.50 to $5.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.18 to $1.14.

44. So, I’ve just learned what is effectively the REAL reason why Peter Beattie travelled to Townsville in the middle of his campaign.

    Apparently, the media have been completely ignoring the campaign in Forde. There is one – ONE – journalist covering it… and it’s a “citizen journalist” for the site “no fibs”. Their journalist was at the candidates’ debate… no other media showed up. She was also the only journalist at Beattie’s campaign launch. And she only started after Beattie had already made that trip to Townsville – so when he travelled, there was zero coverage of the Forde campaign.

    Note that “no fibs” and their Forde journalist are covering all of the candidates evenly (you can read it if you like) – most are giving her time for interviews, etc… Bert van Manen isn’t, which forced her to do second-hand reporting on the only content on him that she could – coverage of a trip to Forde by Joe Hockey in which Bert is in a photo. She also noted that neither the “Australia Voice” candidate nor the KAP candidate have really been present (the AV candidate did at least show up to the candidates’ debate). Apparently van Manen isn’t trusting media people that he doesn’t already know… which is somewhat fair enough, but also a bit silly. I just hope he doesn’t use the same thinking when it comes to people in the electorate (I make no assertion that he does, I’m just emphasising why I think it’s a bit silly).

45. From reports today, the ALP reckon this is going to be a win for them. I very much doubt it.

46. They just reported on ABC News 24 that, apparently, a heap of Beattie signs have gone missing recently (and only Beattie signs – other candidates’ signs are untouched). Sounds suspiciously like that Christopher Pyne staffer who was removing Labor posters, and when caught, Pyne claimed she was just “fixing them up” and doing a great job.

    I wonder if this is common tactics from the Coalition in seats that look like they might be tracking towards a knife-edge. Or could it be one of the other candidates (or their supporters) trying to flare up controversy to try to make both van Manen and Beattie look bad. Heck, it could even be Beattie himself setting it up, although the fact that he’s called in the police to investigate makes it less likely.

47. In my experience corflutes from all political parties get taken or vandalized. Sometimes it’s a political bored vandals, sometimes someone who is anti politics in general and hates corflutes, sometimes a unaffiliated community member with a grudge against a particular candidate.

    it can be a targeted attack on the opposition by the other mob, but it is rare and both sides are guilty of it

48. It was probably that ALP supporters put them on public land and the Council came along and took them.

49. 100 posters don’t just go misssng. Sounds like the LNP searched and recorded where the posters were then snatched them. I think this is becoming closer now that Beattie is establishing himself. I’ve notcied Bert van Manen had a great spot to be seen with Abbott at the conference and suggests he may need alot of help to retain the seat.

    Macca-BNE local council contact the candidate/party and say they have a specific ammount of time to collect them and pay a fine if they have breached local government rules. If it was local government, the police wouldn’t be investigating

50. DB,

    Agreed LNP win !

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