Forde – Australia 2013

1. Well if Beattie adds only 5% to the vote in Forde, and much less in other seats, it’s not the coup that the media suggests it is.

   The other thing I’d say, one poll taken in isolation means absolutely nothing; be it this poll for example. But poll after poll in QLD suggests that if anything, there is a swing to the Coalition in the marginal seats of QLD (in recent days we have seen this, Fisher and Griffith). I suppose people can discount ReachTEL and all polls generally, but when there are 3 of them showing the same thing, then reason would suggest there is no great swing on in QLD which will provide the seats needed for Labor to be competitive. Things can change, but that is the way it is at the moment.

   Van Manen performed extremely well in the debate today in Forde.

   By the way, I do think that Beattie will win this seat.

2. Bear – you don’t find it the least bit suspicious that the poll numbers that Labor had pre-Beattie are exactly what the ReachTel poll got? I wouldn’t be surprised if the ReachTel poll didn’t even name the candidates, so that most people, who probably hadn’t heard about Beattie (given that the poll was completed, and results released, before 7:30 pm), thought they were still choosing between Hardman and van Manen.

   DB – Griffith is not a marginal seat. Fisher is slightly marginal, but most people agree that Slipper didn’t have much personal vote, so it should be less marginal than it is.

3. Yeah DB but take in to account that Bill Glasson has alot resources in Griffth. He has rented out a big building in Coorparoo and has a lot of volunteers on the ground. Rudd does not have the time to campaign as much as he wants in Griffith. He has to go around the country campaigning in the marginals as PM. Also no one in Labor or the media are talking about winning Fisher. Despite Slipper running and Brough dealings with Ashby- the seat is too safe for Labor to win it at this election. But the poll you are referring only gave labor’s candidate 13.9% of the vote with 47% voters undecided is still pretty suss.

   Remember also Rudd only got a swing of 3.8% at the 2007 election when he became PM. That was pretty modest compared to some of the other swings around the state in Queensland. And probably has alot to do with not being able to spend as much time as he wants in the seat.

   Labor is still underdogs in this campaign. Have never disputed that.

4. Glen. Go to http://www.reachtel.com.au and have a look at the questionnaire and the results. Peter Beattie is definitely on the list of candidates asked in the first question. It will be interesting to see the next few polls in Forde. We’ll see if there is any trend or not. They were pretty good in showing the trend in Ashgrove at the last State Election campaign. Their last poll in Ashgrove was fairly close to the actual poll result.

5. Bear – there’s a few things that should be ringing alarm bells when you read through those results.

   1. 2% haven’t heard of Peter Beattie? Really?
   2. 2PP result is based on 2010 distribution of preferences, despite nearly 6% naming new parties as their first preference?
   3. Katter Party is listed amongst the options, but no KAP candidate has been named, as yet, while the CEC candidate got lumped into “Other” despite being named.
   4. The “most important” issues pretty much follow the LNP priorities exactly, despite the region having a lot of young families who should be considering Education and Health as key issues.
   5. The poll had to have been done during the day, when many people would have been at work – Beattie being tapped happened early on the 8th, and the poll was done with results released by 7:30 PM.

   We have no idea what the “answers” available in the poll itself were, only the “answers” as provided in the results. The fact that van Manen got nearly 50% of the vote, while both Labor and Greens got significantly less than would be expected based on past votes, is significant, in my view. Kay Elson held the seat for four elections, and only once broke 50%, despite being a very popular member; many wouldn’t even know who van Manen is.

6. Glen. If you have issues with Reachtel’s method then take it up with them. I’m interested in the trend from Pollsters. If they consistently use the same methodology over a number of polls you can then detect a trend in the electorate’s preference. Hopefully we will have a few more polls for Forde to detect these trends.

7. Encouragement for the LNP according to the betting sites.

   This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $1.20 to $1.35 whilst support for the LNP firms from $4.00 to $2.80. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.20 to $1.25 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $4.00 to $3.65.

8. I know that the libs have been going around saying there is virtually no swing to labor in QLD. I think what is happening is the coalition need to send a message that they will win the election and there is no point considering labor unless you want your MP to be in opposition. The reality is that the big swings will be in states where it will make little difference, Tas and SA where the big change will be 2 seats in Tas and although SA will swing against labor, Boothby will be in play with Gillard moving to the electorate. The LNP underestimate Beattie and his ability to cut through BS lines that the libs are notorious for and know it, thats why they have to say there will be no change, so no one thinks labor has a slightest chance of winning

9. The Australian mentioned today labor polled longman Beattie vs Roy. My sources say they also did similar with other seats including an lnp one in regional queensland. Sorry observer, but that suggests rudd has lost momentum. Clearly forde wasn’t the only problem, several seats they need to win are not getting enough of a swing.

10. QO – we’re all pretty confident that Labor’s decision to call on Beattie is to improve their chances across the board in Queensland. They just needed to have him as a candidate. Forde was chosen because it was an optimal choice – a seat that Labor viewed as difficult to win with the current candidate, but that Beattie would be able to win without a huge amount of effort.

    Longman, based on recent betting numbers, seems to be tending in Labor’s favour. Regional Queensland is a lot less likely to vote Labor anyway, so Beattie would have to put work in to win it. Despite the LNP polling numbers you had access to, it looks like Forde was still favouring the LNP prior to the switch… but fairly close. Labor’s internal polling (according to Courier Mail) on the Beattie possibility appears to suggest Labor would gain with Beattie enough to properly win it.

    Keep in mind, it’s not just about Forde. Even if Beattie only officially campaigns within Forde, he’s going to attract media attention, at least in the Brisbane area’s local TV news and newspapers. And he’s high-profile enough that he will likely make appearances at other Brisbane-based campaign events.

11. Oops – I meant “LNP polling numbers DB had access to”. Sorry about that.

12. We are sort of agreeing. I am just saying if they couldnt win forde then they couldnt win the election Since longman is still going well for the lnp and the alp is behind in moreton

13. wat evidence do you have of those claims?

14. Observer – the only evidence out there are the polls that show swings against the Government in QLD, Forde, Fisher, Griffith. A Galaxy poll in QLD today says 56/44 to the Coalition – a swing of 0.9% in QLD to the LNP,

    A number of internal polls I have seen show man very close seats, however, I think the probabilities are now becoming more likely that the ALP won’t make the QLD gains that they are seeking in order to retain Government. On my guess, the ALP might have a net gain of 4 seats in QLD at best, but I’m generally pretty conservative on the Coalition’s prospects.

15. Well, Nielsen poll shows 53/47 to the LNP in Queensland, a 2% swing to Labor. That would net them 3 Coalition seats, but probably not enough to balance the expected loss elsewhere.

16. Does anyone know the MoE on that Galaxy poll? Nielsen’s Qld segment is 5.9%.

17. RichR – typical NewsLtd reporting, they don’t provide any information except what is useful for their narrative – they didn’t even say what the Coalition primary vote is according to the poll. PollBludger says it was 800 respondents, which would theoretically give it a MoE (at 95% confidence) of about 3.5%.

18. More encouragement for the LNP according to the betting sites.

    This evening, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $1.35 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.80 to $2.70. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.25 to $1.35 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $3.65 to $2.90.

19. Momentum for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $1.35 to $1.45 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.90 to $2.55.

20. Mixed news for the major parties according to the betting sites.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor eases from $1.40 to $1.42 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.70 to $2.50. However, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor firms from $1.45 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $2.55 to $2.75.

21. Internal polling from Monday still showing not much change and this seat could go either way.

22. I think you might find that pundits will be jumping on the LNP vote here as good value. I think the polls are much tighter than what the odds are showing atm.

23. Yeah, I think the odds here are about attracting coin rather than an analysis of what the bookies think. There will be people who will jump in on the ALP here just because Beattie was treasurer.

24. … treasurer?

25. *Premier I meant.

26. Interestingly, they (ALP) canvassed 5 seats for Beattie based on phone polling and this was the only won they confidently thought he could win. I read it in some article somewhere. I think it included Brisbane as well.

27. I’m surprised by that DB….given Beattie represented the area at state level, I’d have thought Brisbane would be a no-brainer for him. Probably a much safer longer-term prospect too than an outer suburban swinging marginal.

28. MDM, DB – Given the gentrification on the inner city northside/CBD it is not surprising that the LNP base vote is increasing and electorates are less likely to retained by the ALP at council, state or federal level. Compare this to the inner city Southside were gentrification has been far less pronounced.

29. Bear, as a person who lives in Forde, I’d say you’re rather wrong on that front. The main population centre of the area is Beenleigh, which is frequently thought of as “thong city”. “Gentrification” isn’t really happening here. Notice that, in 2010, when there was the huge swing against Labor, the LNP got no primary vote swing to them. Most of Labor’s lost votes went to the Greens.

    Forde is also heavy with young families, who tend to favour the left.

30. DB: “Interestingly, they (ALP) canvassed 5 seats for Beattie based on phone polling and this was the only won they confidently thought he could win. I read it in some article somewhere. I think it included Brisbane as well.”

    I don’t know DB….this sort of speculation doesn’t seem any better than Observer saying that KAP prefs will go 80/20 stated as a certainty. If you were posting something internal about the LNP then okay as you obviously have access. However, posting supposed ALP tactics that you read “somewhere” – without a ref – just makes it look a tad biased and very dodgy to be frank.

    Two things that you have definitely not been in your postings here.

31. Sorry Glen for any confusion, I was adding to DB and MDM suggestion that Beattie was best to run in Brisbane.

32. Yappo – fair enough and in fairness to all readers, I’ll be more considered in future. I apologise. I’m pretty sure I only read it in a blog on Pollbludger by a regular poster with supposed links to the ALP.

33. Bear – sorry, on re-reading what you said, I see that you were referring to Brisbane.

34. Setback for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Forde shows support for Labor eases from $1.42 to $1.48 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.50 to $2.45.

35. It looks like the bookies are just moving all the Queensland seats uniformly.

36. Another setback for Labor according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Forde shows support for Labor drifts from $1.40 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.75 to $2.30.

37. The polls in Forde are not showing that Beattie is certain at all here. I question whether Labor will actually pick up many in QLD.

38. Poll by JWS on the afr website shows 60/40 2PP result to the LNP. LNP primary vote over 50%.

39. That result just isn’t believable. Consider that the Greens got over 12% in 2010, but polled only 4%. Labor+Liberal represent 87%, whereas Labor+Liberal only managed 81% in 2010, and that was with four candidates total, rather than ten. 9% are “undecided”, which is curious, since if you add up ALP+LNP+Greens+Undecided, you get to 100%… so what happened to KAP (which managed 10% in Albert in 2012), PUP, Family First, CEC, Rise Up, etc? KAP alone should manage at least 8% based on state election figures, assuming they did nominate (and I’d say they probably did). Family First isn’t going to be less than 4%, unless they lose votes to other minor parties.

40. OK, now I KNOW something screwy is going on. Here’s more on that poll data:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/16/guardian-lonergan-poll-shows-peter-beattie-lose-forde

    It was indeed the lonergan poll data. Why is this screwy? Because I know for a fact that the poll specifically provided a choice of five candidates – so why is it that the poll results only have Labor, Liberals, Greens, and “undecided”?

    Also, apparently the same poll found that only 10% of people in the electorate considered education to be the biggest issue, despite this being a seat with a lot of young families, and 52% said that the coalition had a better education policy – the only education policy that the coalition have put forward is “we won’t drop the ‘gonski’ funding for the first four years”. How on EARTH can you consider the coalition stronger on education based on that?

41. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/peter-beattie-faces-thrashing-in-forde-new-poll-shows-20130816-2s1iv.html

    But Glen, are any of them believable – Robertson, Dobell, Lindsay (60% primary to Lib), Forde??? Are Labor heading for a Gillard result?

42. 568 voters in Forde.

    The margin of error is 4.2 per cent.

    60/40 to LNP

43. “A Guardian Lonergan poll taken in the seat Thursday night shows the Liberal sitting member Bert van Manen’s support soaring from the 44% he polled in 2010 to 56% in 2013. Beattie’s primary vote was a dismal 34%, three percentage points lower than the 37% achieved by Labor’s candidate Brett Raguse in 2010.”

    Another poll showing Forde is gone for the ALP? Or is it the same one?

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/16/guardian-lonergan-poll-shows-peter-beattie-lose-forde

44. It is a different poll, this second one by Lonergan.

    1160 sample.

    Van Manen primary: 54%
    Beattie: 33%

    Quick, get on the LNP in Forde before they turn around. If Labor can’t win Forde, you’d question if they can win any seats in QLD.

45. Look DB I think it’s very idiotic to suggest that if labor can’t win Forde they can’t win seats in qld, you have to actually look at the seats (location, demographics) to make an accurate prediction. And I would say that Forde is probably the most difficult marginal for labor to win and at the campaign is fairly new so I suspect that closer to the election a favourable result for Beattie

46. Wait, what?

    TWO different polls showing a similar result?? Or is it the same one reported twice by two different outfits?

47. Hang on Observer, you were the one spruiking what a massive difference Beattie would make in QLD.

    I’d put it to you that Labor are ahead only in one seat in QLD and stand to lose a couple. Labor will struggle to win any in central QLD even should Katter preference the ALP ahead of the Coalition from some further analysis I’ve seen.

    I would not be surprised if the larger mainstream polls over the weekend showing the Coalition at 54% or so across the country.

    Perhaps leave the personal insults in the back pocket too.

48. MDMConnell

    Two different polls:

    JWS: 54 to 33 on primaries: sample 568
    Lonergan: 56 to 34 on primaries: sample 1160

    Combined MoE about 2.5% or so. Beattie’s gone unless Abbott does something really stupid.

49. It’s almost literally unbelievable isn’t it?

    I can accept the LNP holding on and putting up a strong fight in Forde, and I can accept Beattie being a candidate with mixed popularity and not the vote-magnet Labor thought he was.

    But 60-40??

50. Apparently LNP have gone to $1.40 from $2.75. Where are you Lurch?

    Also, the Lonergan/Guardian poll is not a Robopoll. They asked a number of questions from an operator so it must be fairly accurate.

    JWS have some more polls tomorrow. I hear there will be a few more in addition to this as well.

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