LNP 1.6%
Incumbent MP
Bert Van Manen, since 2010.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Forde covers parts of Logan City, an urban area between the City of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Forde also covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast, but most of the population lives in Logan.
History
Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.
Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.
Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.
Kay Elson (LIB) won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election. In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing. The LNP’s Bert Van Manen won the seat back in 2010 with a 5% swing.
Candidates
- Jonathan Jennings (Rise Up Australia)
- Bert Van Manen (Liberal National)
- Peter Beattie (Labor)
- Keith Douglas (Australian Voice)
- Blair Brewster (Palmer United Party)
- Joshua Sloss (Independent)
- Jan Pukallus (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Sally Spain (Greens)
- Amanda Best (Family First)
- Paul Roger Hunter (Katter’s Australian Party)
Assessment
Forde was an unexpected Labor gain in 2007 and returned to the conservative fold in 2010. The seat is held by a slim margin and will be heavily contested. Van Manen should benefit from a new personal vote.
The entry of former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie into the race was expected to shift Forde into a solid Labor gain, but recent polling suggests Beattie is struggling to win the seat.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bert Van Manen | LNP | 30,967 | 44.08 | +0.01 |
| Brett Raguse | ALP | 26,268 | 37.39 | -8.92 |
| Petrina Maizey | GRN | 8,583 | 12.22 | +7.78 |
| Melissa Raassina | FF | 4,440 | 6.32 | +3.56 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bert Van Manen | LNP | 36,271 | 51.63 | +4.99 |
| Brett Raguse | ALP | 33,987 | 48.37 | -4.99 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five parts. Booths in the Gold Coast council area are grouped as ‘South’. The remainder have been grouped as Central, North, East and West.
The LNP won large majorities in the north and south, while the ALP won smaller majorities in the centre, the east and the west.
| Voter group | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 12.33 | 47.58 | 15,413 | 21.94 |
| East | 12.04 | 46.74 | 12,181 | 17.34 |
| North | 12.42 | 59.10 | 9,817 | 13.97 |
| South | 11.66 | 57.41 | 9,458 | 13.46 |
| West | 12.48 | 48.85 | 6,180 | 8.80 |
| Other votes | 9.76 | 52.62 | 3,421 | 24.49 |
The sitting member is recontesting.
Des Hardman is the ALP candidate for Forde: http://www.deshardman.com/media
Did this seat just become in play?
Absolutely especially given its small margin
I agree with Observer. It is in play. I’m not super confident either way though. I think there is a lot unknowns with demographic changes and young families moving into affordable areas of the electorate. Plus it is a weird seat with some big contrasts between Beaudesert/Tamborine and Beenleigh. Areas of Logan are much more diverse then you would think too.
Surge for Rudd Labor in this electorate.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Forde show support for Labor firms from $3.50 to $2.85 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.20 to $1.35. This momentum is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor strengthening from $3.50 to $2.55 while support for the LNP drifting from $1.25 to $1.45.
The odds are changing pretty quickly here in my home seat, it seems. Centrebet, in the last 18 hours or so, has seen Labor strengthening further from $2.55 to $2.20, with the LNP going from $1.45 to $1.60.
Would probably be doing even better if Labor had stuck with Brett Raguse.
Gap is closing between the major parties in this seat.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Forde show that support for Labor strengthens from $2.85 to $2.10 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.35 to $1.65.
Poll Bludger profile on Forde which may be of interest, http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/07/21/seats-of-the-week-forde-and-herbert/
Support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Forde shows that support for Labor eases from $2.20 to $2.30 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.60 to $1.55.
Just read PB latest polling & betting analysis, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/ .
A update at bottom dated today mentions that Forde swinging the ALPs way on the betting market “at Sportsbet with Labor now $1.75 to the LNP’s $1.95 in Forde.”
Correction & apols, KB not PB! ha
This will depend on Green preferences, however, Labor is on target to win this back. Bonner and to a lesser extent Brisbane seem to be likely Labor gains.
As a Forde local, I agree, DB.
On a related note, I finally saw a bit of physical presence from a candidate’s campaign – van Manen had a few people out doing what I suspect was a bit of roadside advertising in Beenleigh, corner of Main Street and Milne Street (they appeared to be packing up when I saw them). Also, my house has received some mail-out advertising from Des Hardman, which emphasises positive vs negative politics (where “negative” is referring to things like cutting taxes, cutting spending, cutting this, cutting that, and nothing positive, not just negative campaigning).
In Forde, I think we are seeing the primaries narrow to about even and Labor getting over the line on the back of Green preferences. They will probably win but it will still be a marginal seat.
It appears the seats next to Griffith are getting a better bounce than the ones away from it. I’ve just been alerted to an article by Van Onselen in today’s Australian which has pretty much covered what I have written today in various post plus a few extra ones. (I am yet to read his article and don’t know how informative it is) But in summary, from what I know this morning:
– ALP look like gaining a few seats in QLD, but could lose one or two. Moreton still seems tough for Labor given the candidate was pro-Gillard and anti-Rudd.
– ALP look like losing a few seats (or more) in NSW, mainly metropolitan and Dobell. I’d put Robertson in that boat as well given it went agains the trend in the last election (although a sophomore surge applies to Deb O’Neill). Note, Kingsford-Smith might be a sleeper for the Libs as Thistleweight is seen to be backed by the NSW right and polling is very tight.
– ALP look like losing a few seats (or more) in VIC (would not be surprised if something on a reasonably safer margin fell given a couple of the swings I am seeing)
– ALP look like losing Bass and Braddon in TAS (I reckon Lyons is also in play) given the Reachtel poll this week. Braddon seems a surer Lib gain than Bass.
– ALP look like losing one in SA (I reckon they could lose more than 1 given an ageing State Government impact).
– little change in WA (Swan probably the best hope for the ALP although still behind. I don’t think Labor will win Hasluck based on current polling). ALP seem safe in Perth.
– ALP look like losing Lingiari in NT, however, I personally place little value on polling here given a number of fractured communities with a lack of technology.
I have heard reports ALP’s internal polling in marginal seats (no definition) it holds is 52/48 against and 53/47 against in seats it does not hold that are marginal. This would appear to flush out to around 51.5/48.5 to the Coalition as Labor hold more seats at the top end.
As at today, I’d guess the best way to put it is that Labor would probably get 72 at best (roughtly what they hold), but the Coalition would probably get over 80, but dependent on a few of the seats in QLD.
PS: we are now seeing full on seat-by-seat polling rather than the regional/area polling that the parties do throughout the term. There are high margins of error obviously given small samples, but there is consistency in that there is still a swing against the Government on the balance of the marginal seats which, combined, can be taken with a small MoE of around 2% or so.
DB – what you’ve basically said is precisely why Labor shouldn’t rush to the election. That being said, remember that Labor hasn’t even begun to focus on their strong fields – it’s all been about nullifying the Liberals’ strong fields. Right now, Labor looks (due to that focus) like Liberals Lite… and if you’re going to go for something like the Liberals, you might as well go Liberals. And that’s how I think it will be here in Forde, too – people here aren’t likely to be all that concerned about asylum seekers, for instance. Once Labor moves onto the front foot, Forde is likely to strengthen for them, in my opinion.
Note that van Manen was a Family First candidate for Rankin in 2007 before he was Liberal candidate for Forde in 2010. He is not a strong candidate, he was elected on anti-Labor sentiment due to the dumping of Labor.
Glen, I note that Latham shares the opposite view – i.e. Rudd’s popularity won’t last, particularly if he brings in unpopular measures. I personally think you could go either way. I think Rudd would be a bigger chance of winning the longer he goes as he continues to build incumbency, however, it is a two edged sword. Abbott has little to lose in terms of popularity. It is hard to see him being more unpopular. Rudd is popular and his popularity might be at risk.
If I were Rudd, I’d roll the dice and go late. It’s not going to be a worse outcome than it was going to be a month or so ago.
Curiously, this seat is getting mixed signals from the betting market.
Centrebet has the LNP noticeably ahead, at $1.68 to Labor’s $2.05. Sportsbet, however, has Labor somewhat ahead, at $1.75 to the LNP’s $1.95.
The momentum does seem to be in Labor’s favour on Centrebet, though, as it has shifted to its current position from $1.55 vs $2.30 a week and a half ago. Sportsbet shifted from LNP ahead to Labor ahead over the last two and a half weeks, so it’s a seat that appears to be tending strongly to Labor if we assume that earlier bets are weighting in favour of the Liberals.
Seems that the LNP is stating that Forde will most likely fall;
A senior LNP strategist ….”…..and Forde are going to be very hard, if not impossible, to hold.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/marginals-not-part-of-pms-swing/story-fn9qr68y-1226689794739
Report that the new ALP candidate for this seat is Peter Beattie
Yeah, I heard that too. BIG coup for the ALP, he was arguably the most popular politician when he was Premier.
Well, Forde is going to be a Labor seat for a while, now. Beattie is popular here, as you’d expect. Remember, he never lost an election once he was premier – he chose to step down and resign at the height of his popularity.
He’s almost certainly going to go straight into the ministry (or shadow ministry) – possibly Health (he was Health Minister in QLD before becoming leader) or Trade (he was “trade commissioner” for QLD to the Americas after leaving the parliament, and Richard Marles is a nobody in the cabinet).
And those seats that looked like “possible ALP gains”? With Beattie now in, they’re probably going to shift to comfortable wins, too. He’s a strong campaigner, and is seen in QLD as a very strong leader, perhaps stronger than Rudd. Wouldn’t be surprised if Labor started building his national identity towards him taking over from Rudd as leader some time down the line (either when Rudd loses an election, or when he chooses to step down).
Glen,
clever politics by QLD and Australian Labor Party, its funny when Peter Beattie quit state politics everybody in QLD was waiting for him to return federally.
This will have an affect on QLD result but nationally just a “speed bump”. Former Premier Bob Carr’s addition to the Labor Party has had no effect, but Peter Beattie’s Queenslanders listen to him.
A great coup and well played Labor.
This is how strong Beattie is.
Centrebet’s odds in Forde have already shifted. ALP has gone from noticeably behind, $2.05 (to LNP’s $1.68) to $1.25 (to LNP’s $3.75), pretty much instantly.
Sportsbet’s odds also have shifted. ALP has gone from the slight favourite at $1.75 (to LNP’s $1.95) to $1.20 (to LNP’s $4.00).
WTF? That was quick.
Polling in QLD had softened considerably for the ALP and arguably, they would have struggled to pick up more than a net seat or two. Beattie should have an impact on Brisbane surrounds and a net gain of 5 or so seats in QLD is again possible. It won’t have any impact on other states however and NSW seems a very difficult place for the ALP on current numbers.
I doubt Beattie will ever have the pull to become leader of the ALP should they lose the election. Shorten will be the next leader of the ALP in Opposition I suspect.
I’m surprised he has decided to run here and not Brisbane. I thought he would be a lot better chance their than in Forde. Also the Beattie name is not the vote winner it used to be. His wife didn’t do well in Brisbane Central at the BCC elections. The Beattie/Bligh era in Queensland is seen as one of lost opportunities. He might struggle to win. I bet Reachtel is being commissioned quickly to do one of its polls. We will soon see.
To what extent will the fact that Beattie has to campaign for himself in a marginal seat limit his ability to campaign in other seats and help other candidates? I was just reading an article from just after the 1975 election explaining that if Beattie waited until the 1978 election (what the writer thought would be the ’78 election, anyway) rather than get in through a by-election, he’d have to campaign in his own seat, which would limit his ability to campaign for others. Is that a real dynamic, or was that just some journalist filling some column inches?
DB – as Queensland Observer pointed out in the “Day One” comments, what Beattie running for Forde does is free up Rudd to campaign more in other states.
Bear – Labor is already the clear favourite in Brisbane, while Forde is more uncertain. Labor didn’t bring Beattie in to strengthen the ministry (although he undoubtedly will be a minister or shadow minister), but to give Labor the best chance of winning. They wouldn’t put him in a seat that would be difficult for Labor to win at all, but putting him into a seat that Labor’s already likely to win doesn’t best maximise their chances. Forde is the perfect choice – a seat that is marginal, with a relatively unknown Liberal member and an unknown current Labor candidate, that Labor had a chance of taking but were still the underdog. And most people associate the “wasted opportunity” with the Bligh government – there’s a reason why, under Beattie, 2PP results were typically 55% to the ALP, with primary vote typically around 47-48%, even as federally it tended to be about those numbers for Libs/Nats… and then, Bligh barely broke 50% 2PP in 2009, and then dropped to 37% 2PP in 2012.
RichR – Beattie doesn’t need to campaign that much in Forde, because everybody already knows him. Kind of like how neither Rudd nor Abbott will be spending much time campaigning in their own electorates – both will be able to campaign maybe one day a week in their electorate, and still come out with a massive margin. Beattie has that sort of recognition. He’ll be able to campaign basically anywhere in the Brisbane/Logan/Gold Coast/Ipswich area (and perhaps even some of the northside seats), and still have a comfortable victory in Forde, I think.
Glen. As any investment guide has to tell you. Past performance is no indication of future performance. Beattie left in 2007 due to his electoral stocks having been exhausted. He also had for most of his period as Premier a divided opposition. Admittedly he made the most of it. In Cricket terms he has gone from batting on Bellerive to batting in Mumbai were it is spinning and the swing is reversing. It will definitely test his footwork.
Smart move by the ALP and did anyone see that coming?! I agree, it does free Rudd up to campaign elsewhere and should help a little to lift other Bris seats votes.
Ideally, it would have been another seat surrounded by other winnable marginals – it is not like the ALP is ever going to get Wright, Bowman or Fadden in the near future. However, he can spend time in the northern suburbs. He probably wanted a seat which he can move to the safe column in time. Ironically, according to last weeks ‘senior LNP strategist’ Australian article this was one seat that the LNP were already conceding as a loss, “….and Forde are going to be very hard, if not impossible, to hold.”
Annabel Crabb has a fantastic Tweet:
“Please, please, please can Peter Beattie’s campaign HQ be called the “Beattie Forde Centre”?”
Bear – Beattie’s “electoral stocks” hadn’t even remotely been exhausted. Opinion polls around the time that Beattie resigned as Premier had Labor at 50% primary vote. In his own electorate, he polled 50.5% primary vote in 2006 – his replacement, Grace Grace, in 2009 only managed 42.2% (and only managed 50.2% in the by-election in 2007 because the Liberals didn’t run a candidate).
I’m not sure whereabouts you live, but as a Forde voter, I’d say that most people in this electorate will be welcoming Beattie.
Especially given that most see him as a leader, and thus as a potential future PM. People like the idea of having the PM as their member, so he should do well.
Atkins, who I highly respect, has a good article on the move. Though to counter the LNP quote I posted above, Atkins says internal ALP polling short here, http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/special-features/kevin-rudd-and-strategist-bruce-hawker-see-peter-beattie-as-best-chance-to-win-forde-pushing-aside-candidate-des-hardman/story-fnho52jo-1226693337214
Glen. I’ve lived in Brisbane and its various suburbs for 43 years. If he was still so popular why did he step down in the first place? Also if he was still so popular why didn’t the ALP at the last state election run him in ads saying vote ALP? You would think that facing that decimation the ALP would use Beattie to increase the vote. Lets just wait until we get some opinion polls on Forde before we run around annointing him as PM material.
Smart move. Could ride a wave of anti-Newman sensitivity and take a marginal seat back.
Bear – he was living in America at the last election. As for stepping down, we can’t know the finer details, but if it was due to lack of public support, he probably would have remained as a member of parliament until the next election – it wouldn’t have hurt Labor’s chances in 2009. He left parliament entirely when he stepped down, implying one of three things:
1. A personal reason for stepping down (even “political fatigue” is possible).
2. Union bosses forcing him out in favour of Bligh (unlikely, but not impossible).
3. Some sort of offer made that would earn him a lot of money.
The fact is, all opinion polling still had Labor well ahead and stable when he stepped down. Do you really think he’d leave parliament entirely when opinion polls had Labor stronger than at the previous election because of a lack of popularity? It just doesn’t make sense.
Surge for Labor according to Centrebet.
Currently, Centrebet odds in Forde shows support for Labor firms from $2.05 to $1.20 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.68 to $4.00.
Yappo, that article says to me that if Labor were worried about not being able to win Forde (which is a somewhat typical south-east QLD seat) then the swing is not on for Labor to win many seats off the Coalition in QLD.
Beattie might make a difference in this seat and maybe (and I mean maybe) a couple of adjacent seats, but beyond that he won’t make much difference, much like Bob Carr has made no difference in NSW.
DB, you underestimate Beattie’s popularity in Queensland. Carr resigned from the premiership because Labor support was slipping. Beattie quit while Labor was still very popular.
Beattie is also starting by running for election, while Bob Carr was given the senate position when somebody else resigned – he never actually stood for election.
It depends what was causing the poor ALP polling here. If the candidate was underperforming the rest of the QLD swing, that could be why he was replaced.
Glen, He was in Brisbane during the election campaign. Didn’t you see him on channel 9 with his regular weekly features on their news. And he was definitely in Brisbane on election night. Are you sure you live in Brisbane Glen? I think you are making this up as you go along.
Glen, Beattie is running in one seat – Forde. He is not the Prime Minister. He won’t be on the ballot paper in any other seat but Forde. He will have a positive impact for Labor today and probably in a number of seats, but it will slowly dip away and by election day it will be nominal as most people outside of Forde would have forgotten about it. And separately, the failures of the Bligh Government could be argued to have started with Beattie as it is with Carr in NSW.
I’m not discounting the impact of Beattie in Forde, but I really think it is overblown to think it will be massive in any other seat, except perhaps those closely nearby (but that is probably even pushing it).
Didn’t NSW Labor win another 2 elections after Carr retired?
The Reach Tel polling group has tonight released new voting figures. Even if Peter Beattie is standing, the LNP is still ahead 54-46 2PP.
On the primaries, the ALP is up to 39.9%, but the LNP is up from 44.1 to 48.3% on primaries. This poll more than backs-up the poll in Griffith, which saw the ALP incurr a swing against from 58.5 to 54.5 2PP.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/08/reachtel-54-46-to-lnp-in-forde/
No DB NSW Labor won only one election after Bob Carr retired. But Carr was never loved by NSW only respected. Carr also benefited that NSW is typical stronghold for Labor and the opposition was hopeless which is why he won three state elections. Peter Beattie was loved in Queensland and was definitely a popular leader. I think it’s a smart move by Labor and will impact on the vote. Something that never happened with Carr being appointed as a senator, Queensland is conservative particularly when voting federally and Labor is going to need all the help it can get. While the move is smart, it probably also signifies how much trouble Labor is in the marginals. One thing though is its certainly is a circuit breaker for Labor- but not necessary a game changer.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/election/a/-/article/18419170/7News-ReachTel-poll-shows-Beattie-trailing-behind-LNP-candidate/
Surprising result that doesn’t reflect the internal polling however this would be more robust given the size of the sample.
David – yes I could see it tonight with Beattie’s interview with Leigh Sales. Beattie needs to be leader of the ALP. I wish we had him in the Liberal Party. But from the ReachTEL poll tonight there is no guarantee he will even be elected.
Based on a number of public polls now, It seems to me that there is virtually no general swing to Labor in QLD even with Rudd as leader.
I can understand how the Coalition are firming as favourites in this election.
DB I wouldn’t put much trust in the Reachtel poll. Beattie has only just announced it and the poll looked a bit rushed and a rouge poll. Also do you really think that the LNP candidate will have a primary vote of 48%?
Reachtel also had a poll when Gillard was leader that Wayne Swan would retain his seat comfortably. Trust me that poll is not realistic indicator on Peter Beattie impact in Queensland. And you should wait for a couple more polls before making any judgement.
As David said, ReachTel polls haven’t been very reasonable compared with other polls. And it’s understandable why not – for one thing, you can’t be “uncommitted”, which skews the numbers. In the case David raises, many people would have been considering voting somebody other than Swan, but if forced to choose somebody, would have chosen Swan.
Indeed, more generally, I wonder if ReachTel polls might have a tendency to support the sitting member more than they should.
Bert van Manen getting 48% primary vote just isn’t going to happen. Greens only getting 4% also isn’t going to happen – that would be down from over 12% in 2010. Family First got 6% here in 2010, and yet don’t even break 2%? They must also be assuming that KAP and PUP votes will mostly flow to LNP, which isn’t obvious at this time.
From the Courier mail – “Labor research using UMR showed Labor was set to lose Forde with a two party preferred vote of 46 per cent, but could be delivered a 5 point boost with Mr Beattie.
The UMR Research poll found Mr Beattie would lift Labor’s primary vote from 41 per cent to 47 per cent, while the Liberal National Party’s support would slump from 48 per cent to 44 per cent.”
I think the Reachtel poll shouldn’t be dismissed. It is poll with the definite candidates not some hypothetical. In any case I don’t think Beattie can afford to leave Forde and help others. He will have his hands full in Forde. I think this debunks the myth that Beattie is some mystical election winning machine.