Farrer – Australia 2013

LIB 14.5%

Incumbent MP
Sussan Ley, since 2001.

Geography
Farrer covers a great expanse of southwestern NSW. The seat covers most of the NSW-Victorian border and covers the entirety of the NSW-South Australian border. It stretches from the Greater Hume area around Albury all the way along the Murray River, and then north to include Broken Hill and the largely unpopulated unincorporated area of far western NSW. Main towns include Albury, Broken Hill, Deniliquin and Corowa.

History
Farrer was created at the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. In its time it has always been held by conservative parties, primarily the Liberal Party, although it was held by the Nationals from 1984 until 2001.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate David Fairbairn. He was included in the Menzies ministry from 1962 until 1969, when he challenged John Gorton for the leadership and moved to the backbench. He returned to cabinet for one year in 1971 after William McMahon became Prime Minister, and retired from Parliament in 1975.

He was succeeded by Wal Fife, who had been a minister in the Liberal state government of New South Wales since 1967. Fife went on to serve as a minister in the Fraser government from 1977 until its defeat in 1983. He moved to the seat of Hume following the 1984 redistribution, which had moved Wagga Wagga from Farrer into Hume, and he retired in 1993.

The seat was won in a three-cornered contest in 1984 by Nationals state MP Tim Fischer, with the Liberal coming third. Fischer became leader of the National Party in 1990 after then-leader Charles Blunt lost his seat.

Fischer went on to serve as Deputy Prime Minister from 1996 to 1999, retiring at the 2001 election. Another three-cornered contest in 2001 saw the Liberal Party’s Sussan Ley win the seat back from the Nationals.

Sussan Ley has been re-elected three times, in 2004, 2007 and 2010.

Candidates

  • Narelle Davis (Rise Up Australia)
  • Brendan Cattell (Democratic Labour Party)
  • Ken Trewin (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Sussan Ley (Liberal)
  • Ron Emmerton (Palmer United Party)
  • Gavin Hickey (Labor)
  • Tracey Powell (Bullet Train For Australia)
  • Frank Horwill (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Chris Sobey (Greens)

Assessment
Farrer is a safe Liberal seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sussan Ley LIB 42,646 51.41 -5.87
Christian Emmery ALP 20,981 25.29 -7.39
Louise Burge IND 9,350 11.27 +11.27
Peter Carruthers GRN 4,880 5.88 +1.05
James Male CDP 2,664 3.21 +3.21
Mathew Crothers SEC 1,099 1.32 +1.32
Jason Clancy IND 724 0.87 +0.87
Stephen Bingle DEM 603 0.73 +0.73

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sussan Ley LIB 53,513 64.51 +3.32
Christian Emmery ALP 29,434 35.49 -3.32

 

Polling places in Farrer at the 2010 federal election. Albury in yellow, Broken Hill in green, Central in blue, Deniliquin in red, East in purple, North-West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Farrer at the 2010 federal election. Albury in yellow, Broken Hill in green, Central in blue, Deniliquin in red, East in purple, North-West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Farrer covers a massive part of New South Wales. The three main urban areas are Albury, Broken Hill and Deniliquin, and booths in these towns have been grouped together. The remaining rural areas have been split into east, central and north-west.

The Liberal Party won a two-party majority in five out of six areas, ranging from 60.8% in Albury to 76.1% in the rural areas around Deniliquin. The Labor Party won 58.6% in Broken Hill.

Independent candidate Louise Burge came third, with 11.3% of the vote. Her vote peaked at 44% of the primary vote in Deniliquin and 23% of the vote in the rural areas nearby, while she didn’t poll over 10% in any other part of the seat.

Voter group GRN % IND % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Albury 9.50 6.57 60.81 21,401 25.80
East 3.69 9.92 68.00 13,212 15.93
Central 2.53 22.98 76.14 10,371 12.50
Broken Hill 5.69 6.34 41.38 7,852 9.47
North-West 3.80 7.27 70.94 6,078 7.33
Deniliquin 1.08 43.99 71.91 4,435 5.35
Other votes 7.00 6.93 65.67 19,598 23.63
Two-party-preferred votes in Farrer at the 2010 federal election. Click to enlarge.
Two-party-preferred votes in Farrer at the 2010 federal election. Click to enlarge.
Two-party-preferred votes in southeastern parts of Farrer at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southeastern parts of Farrer at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Albury at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Albury at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Broken Hill at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Broken Hill at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Deniliquin at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Deniliquin at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Wentworth area at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Wentworth area at the 2010 federal election.

14 COMMENTS

  2. The sort of seat along with Hume that the natural should never had lost.

    despite a recent recovery it suggests the name are slowly dying

  5. and that despite the nats doing really well at the NSW election and the recent by-election, they are having a very little impact and slowly dying as a party, atleast at a federal level

  10. Can’t trust this at all being an online poll. I’d be shocked if the ALP was even within 5%, let alone ahead in this seat.

  11. If the national and marginal polling numbers are both correct, this could actually be accurate. If the marginals are all swinging heavily against Labor and the national average is only slightly swinging against Labor, then the non-marginals have to be swinging in favour of Labor.

    Not that I actually think that’s what has happened. But then, I’m sceptical of all the polling numbers at this point in time. We’ll see how close it really was within a week.

  12. If the polling has largely come from Albury as you suggest QO, then it makes the figures even more bizarre particularly considering how strong the south of this electorate is for the Liberals.

    Whilst I’m very willing to chalk this up to the inaccuracy of online polling – it is very strange. Will be interesting to see if it shows up come election day.

  13. I now live in the next electorate of Riverina, and Susan Ley is very popular in the seat of Farrer, The Border Mail is not a very strong news paper, and the survey run was very poor.

    I doubt these figures are credible.

  14. I’m unsurprised Grassy.

    Unless there has been a radical demographic change in Albury, this seat will stay Tory.

    Very strange polling though. Very strange.

Comments are closed.