Fairfax – Australia 2013

LNP 7.0%

Incumbent MP
Alex Somlyay, since 1990.

Geography
Sunshine Coast of Queensland. Fairfax covers the central part of Sunshine Coast Regional Council. It covers the towns of Buderim, Maroochydore and Nambour, as well as following the coast from Maroochydore to Coolum Beach.

History
Fairfax was first created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded, and has always been held by conservative parties. The seat was first won by Evan Adermann of the National Party, who had previously held Fisher since the 1972 election and served as a minister in the Fraser government.

Adermann retired at the 1990 election, and the seat was fought as a three-cornered contest in 1990. The ALP came first on primaries, with the Nationals leading the Liberals by 0.7% on primary votes. A high Democrats vote pushed the Liberals ahead of Nationals candidate John Stone, who had resigned from the Senate to contest the seat, and Alex Somlyay (LIB) won the seat on National preferences.

Somlyay has held the seat ever since by varying margins, most recently having a margin of over 62% following the redistribution before the 2007 election. A 9.4% swing to the ALP made Fairfax a marginal seat following the 2007 election. A 4% swing back to the LNP strengthened Somlyay’s position in 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
On paper, Fairfax is a held by only 7% for the LNP. The LNP should have no trouble defeating Labor, and despite Clive Palmer’s obnoxious claims, there is no evidence that Palmer is a serious threat to the LNP’s hold on the seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alex Somlyay LNP 39,102 49.45 +2.72
Dan McIntyre ALP 21,589 27.31 -9.07
Narelle McCarthy GRN 14,228 18.00 +9.31
Ron Hunt FF 4,147 5.24 +1.32

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alex Somlyay LNP 45,032 56.95 +3.98
Dan McIntyre ALP 34,034 43.05 -3.98
Polling places in Fairfax at the 2010 federal election. Inland in orange, Nambour in blue, North-East in green, South-East in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Fairfax at the 2010 federal election. Inland in orange, Nambour in blue, North-East in green, South-East in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Those booths near the coast have been split into “North-East” and “South-East”. The south-east is the most populous part of the seat, including Maroochydore and Buderim. The north-east includes seats close to the coast.

Booths away from the coast have been split into those near the town of Nambour, and the other booths grouped as “Inland”.

The LNP won a majority in all four areas, varying from 50.7% in the north-east to 58.7% in the south-east. The Greens vote varied from 16.1% in the south-east to 22.1% in the north-east.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 16.14 58.69 22,131 32.97
Nambour 17.57 55.56 15,323 22.83
North-East 22.14 50.68 11,392 16.97
West 21.49 55.38 7,714 11.49
Other votes 15.89 59.43 10,564 15.74
Two-party-preferred votes in Fairfax at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Fairfax at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Fairfax at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Fairfax at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the south-eastern corner of Fairfax at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the south-eastern corner of Fairfax at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in the south-eastern corner of Fairfax at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in the south-eastern corner of Fairfax at the 2010 federal election.

70 COMMENTS

  1. Palmer “obnoxious”? He’s “larger than life”, knows more about politics than most business types (long standing party member and began life as a student pol at UQ) and has factional form within the LNP. He’s a bit weird, a bit eccentric (I think part of the “Brand Palmer” that sustains his business), and keeps company I’d prefer not to, but as far as I can see, holds opinions that are closer to the “centre” of Australian politics than a number of current members of the Commonwealth Parliament – the DLP on social issues, or Xenophon’s economic populism for example.

  2. His interests are pretty obvious. It’s almost a Chaser headline really: “Mining billionaire proposes tax cuts for miners.”

    Oh yes, the great defender of the overdog.

    I’d be surprised if he comes any better than fifth (after the LNP, Labor, Greens & KAP).

  3. Palmer won’t do worse than the Greens and Katter, he has too big of a profile not to.

    I kinda hope he wins even though I disagree with his politics, just to give a third-party a bigger say in Australian politics.

  4. The Australian Independents candidate is Janene Maxwell-Jones. She has received quite a bit of media attention on the Sunshine Coast. The Greens fellow only announced he was running the other day. Any reason why the Australian Independents candidate isn’t on the list?

  5. I don’t think that Clive Palmer should be ignored. He is receiving a lot of media attention and he is polling well on the coast. I think that he could actually win the seat of Fairfax on preferences.

  7. I wouldn’t be surprised if the LNP vote actually falls here, because Alex Somlyay has held this seat for more than 20 years and there’s got to be a big personal vote for him that will evaporate when he goes. Still, I tip the LNP to hold, notwithstanding the presence of Clive Palmer.
    If Palmer doesn’t win, he might look like he’s doing a Hanson – spending too much time in other electorates and not enough in the electorate that he’s actually contesting (which explains in part how Pauline Hanson lost in 1998).
    I note also that, in winning this seat back in 1990, Somlyay actually defeated the Nationals’ John Stone, who was trying to transfer from the Senate to the House of Reps in the hope of perhaps leading the Nationals. Does this story sound familiar (in the context of New England)?

  8. I wonder when the day will come that One Nation realises its irrelevance to Australian and Queensland politics and disappears. You would have thought not holding a seat in Qld parliament for quite some time now would have sent a mesage…..I guess not.

  9. Rudd for PM, unfortunately people like Hanson will continue to hover on the edges of Australian politics until people feel that they have answers to questions and issues that they want dealt with, however much the major parties and political establishment don’t want to answer them.
    If you’re not careful, another extreme force with political nous will rise from the ashes of One Nation.

  11. I’m not sure that Somlyay has too much of a personal vote, despite his longevity. The Sunshine Coast paper, while sympathetic to the Libs in general, have said for some time that Somlyay and Slipper are benchwarmers.

    I would be interested in polling for this seat, though I can’t imagine any party but Palmers bothering to commission it. Maybe I underestimated the bloke – I might revise my earlier prediction to him making 3rd after the LNP and ALP. I guess there’s an outside chance of him ‘doing a Wilkie’, but I still doubt it.

  12. “despite Clive Palmer’s obnoxious claims, there is no evidence that Palmer is a serious threat to the LNP’s hold on the seat.”

    This seems VERY harsh. Have a look at our Policies. (We actually have some and they are based upon a care for people.) And we are are all here to try and make a difference for ALL Australians.

    I am the Palmer United Party candidate for Murray and there is NOTHING more that I want to do than to create a future with jobs, education and health care for all Australians. I want to get more businesses to set up in regional Victoria, make the choice to live in these areas a vailable option for our children.

    None of us are career politicians, just a group of people that want to make a difference.

    Catriona Thoolen https://www.facebook.com/PalmerUnitedPartyForMurray

  13. That’s all well and good, Catriona, but nothing you said disproves my point. There is absolutely no evidence that a significant body of voters are considering voting for Clive Palmer’s party. He’s a guy who is using his huge resources to set up his own party, but is yet to win a single vote, or turn up in the polls.

    I’m very comfortable in calling someone “obnoxious” when they are in that position and won’t shut up about “forming government” and becoming the Prime Minister.

  14. Ben you are proving to be the obnoxious one. Clive is a national treasure. How do you expect him to have attracted votes before his first election is contested. I thought you were supposed to be fair minded, I did not pick you as one who would be supporting the two party duopoly in Australia.

  15. I very much don’t support the “two party duopoly” and if you knew me you would know that.

    There are dozens of political parties running for the first time in this election. Clive Palmer is the only one making claims about forming government and becoming Prime Minister. He’s clearly a very rich man and so has the resources to run a stronger operation than a lot of other minor parties but I won’t take him anymore seriously than any other new party until he can actually demonstrate that people are interested in voting for him.

  16. Plus Palmer’s party is clearly a vanity project, and one embarked on out of spite after the goings on at the LNP. It is hard enough to take a new party seriously when it is formed to fight on a particular issue or set of issues, but when the party is formed to feed the already outsized ego of a bombastic blowhard.

  17. I agree minor parties like Clive are not serious. He would not run in a seat if he didn’t think he had a chance of winning. This could well be a case of underestimating the power of Clive’s cheque book. He’s already putting alot of effort in seats that you would have to be dreaming to get here in NSW. While I doubt that Palmer will do well, everyhting could play in his favour:

    1. An endless Cheque Book
    2. An unpopular LNP state government
    3. A Rudd boost to downplay the LNPs primary vote
    4. A retiring long term member in a seat that was close in 07
    5. A keep the bastards honest approach which people like

  18. The LNP was at 62% on 2PP according to the last quarterly Newspoll, after dipping down to 56% in the last quarter of last year. I don’t like Newman either, but I don’t see by what objective standard his government can be said to be unpopular.

  19. Take a look at how Gillard’s stocks were when Newman was on the nose and when she was on the nose. I’ll think you will see how big of an influence the federal government had on state voting intentions

  21. As RichR said, the idea the Newman government is unpopular is not based on facts. Check Poll Bludger to see this. Newman is a non factor.

    Overall I think some cracks are already showing in the Rudd move and the polls right now may be the high water mark. I expect many seats outside of Queensland to still fall to the Coalition. Rudd will just make the loss more respectable.

    So Queensland:

    Palmer has money and advertising, but people are not buying him nor his party. In a handful of seats he may break 5% of the vote. Fairfax, Hinkler, Maranoa and some south east corner seats.

    Katter meanwhile will suffer from disorganization (his main organisers such as McLinden have deserted him) and from the drift back to Rudd from the blue collar vote that went to Katter at the state election. So I struggle now to see Katter running second in Herbert or Dawson and therefore he can’t win these seats. I think he won’t breach 10% in other rural seats (bar Kennedy where he will poll well but is beatable).

    Palmer and Katter will mainly influence this election in preferences in tight marginals. Herbet, Dawson, Flynn (Katter) as well as Moreton, Brisbane, Petrie, Bonner, Forde (Palmer more so).

    This takes me to Rudd in Queensland. I think it is difficult to say how many seats he can hold onto or gain as Queensland’s marginals on both side of the House are very tight and you can’t call them. It is highly likely that 5 to 10 seats will be decided on preferences.

    I think you could see Rudd hold all the ALP seats and pick up those three regional seats and Brisbane. A real optimist may add Forde, Bonner and Longman as possibilities. But he could also lose Petrie and Moreton. I would love to see Rankin and Oxley due to how well the LNP candidates are campaigning, but the change of leader makes it very unlikely.

  22. I’m curious as to why Palmer chose this seat to run in and not Fisher. With Brough embroiled in scandle, which Palmer claims to have been asked to take part in but declined, I’d have thought he’d have a lot more leverage there.

  24. Palmer says he is a ‘dead cert’ to win at 82%!!!!
    ABC: Clive Palmer says he’s a dead cert to win the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax – because of a local newspaper poll showing massive support for his dinosaur theme park and vintage car museum.
    “I’ll win the seat of Fairfax there’s no doubt about that,” he said this morning. “There was a poll done in the Sunshine Coast Daily two weeks ago that had me at 82 per cent – that was a poll in favour of our dinosaur park and our motorrama. “I’ll tell you one thing, you don’t get 82 per cent in any poll unless the people of the region support you.”
    However, the Sunshine Coast leads with another story,http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/SportingBet-odds-have-Clive-Palmer-a-a-total-loss/1971787/

  25. Palmer might be a national treasure, but from the look of things the people of Fairfax don’t think highly enough of him to give him their vote.
    It looks like Game Over – LNP to hold.

  27. While the story might be completely true and taken in context. The Australian has a history of publishing very poorly researched Anti Palmer articles. When there errors are highlighted, the put a small article on a back page correcting themselves.

    How about a media policy where the retraction has to occupy the same column space and location as the original article?

  28. Clive Palmer has my vote. We need to get the Sunshine Coast moving. Take a walk down Maroochydore CBD an you also would leave thinking the same thing.

  29. If the sportsbet researchers have done their job properly, this is how it will fall:

    1. Coalition (Fairfax QLD) 1.08
    2. PUP Clive Palmer (Fairfax QLD) 7.00
    3. Labor (Fairfax QLD) 15.00
    4. Greens (Fairfax QLD) 41.00
    5. KAP (Fairfax QLD) 51.00
    6. Any Other (Fairfax QLD) 51.00

  30. Anyone have access to internal polling? Can anyone in the electorate advise as to how hard Palmer is campaigning here?

  31. @balmain,

    the TV adverts from Clive are very regular in prime time – at least as much, but probably more than the Libs. I’d guess he bought up every available spot.

    Not sure beyond that.

  32. If Clive thought he had a realistic chance of winning Fairfax, he is guilty of completely underestimating his opponent. The people of Fairfax are most fortunate to have Ted O’Brien standing for their interest in the seat of Fairfax. I have known Ted for 22 years, and I know of no greater young man then he. I have watched him serve his family of 8 other siblings with both strength and humility, nurse his ailing Father on a daily basis, and look after his beloved Mother with a degree of care that only comes from a man who is unafraid to love, serve and add value to people’s lives. Ted O’Brien is not only a superb candidate for Fairfax, we actually need him in our Federal Parliament. As much as I have enjoyed Clive’s antics and some of his truths, Ted O’Brien offers the type of leadership that our country has been crying out for a long long time. Bernie K

  36. I get the feeling Palmer would have a chance if this was a 3 way seat with his votes inclusive. Even with Greens and Labor likely to suffer heavy losses there just aren’t enough votes for him to win. Will be interesting to see how he polls though.

  37. I’m gonna put my neck on the line and call this for Clive Palmer. Given the apparent surge he’s getting in the polls, I think ALP and Greens will get him over the line.

    Question – are the Greens preferencing Labor or Palmer?

  44. There was a rumour that Jeff the Dinosaur was going to run in Fairfax for PUP. I would think Jeff would get more votes than Clive.

  45. Hi Bernie, While Ted sounds like a great person, if he is that committed to his family, then standing for parliament would not be an option. A federal member is going to be away from their family for at least half of the year. To sacrifice your family for your country is a terrible thing, and would make some question where your priorities lie.

    As for Clive, while he may come across as special/unique/quirkie/Qlder, when you meet him, he does have the countries best interest at heart (as do his candidates).

    With PUP and Katter in the mix, I think this election will surprise some people.

  47. While I appreciate the sentiments of your comments Rockman, I think you should at least ask Ted’s wife first as to whether she too is part of and supportive of Ted’s move into Public Life. It was not Ted’s decision. It was their decision. Only when you hear from her can you past judgement on where Ted’s priorities lie … and while you are at it …. if you want to actually know Ted …. just meet his wife and family. You will meet them on Saturday. Make sure you meet her before you vote. That would either support or refute your judgement very quickly, and I am sorry mate knowing the qualities of Ted’s family I know that outcome already, so don’t waste your time. As for Clive, it is true, he is good for the country, but his place is not against Ted. It’s keeping the dishonest ones at bay and the class of Ted O’Brien does not know that category. Clive should have picked an easier candidate, not one who is leadership personified. Bernie K

  48. I live in Coolum ask the locals what they think of Clive it wouldnt be kind, a bully, ego driven, dosent listen to anyone and more……rich maybe but so what, he will be lucky to get 5% of the vote the locals dont want him…

  50. Does anyone honestly believe that Palmer, win or lose, will be around for the people of Fairfax after Saturday ?? You would have to be very naïve … very very silly … to believe that he is just going to give up all his business interests and work full time for the people of Fairfax post election ! Why do you think he chose the same region as his beloved Jurassic Pk, his Golf Courses, and his proposed Casino ? His campaign isn’t about the people of Fairfax … Compare with Ted O’Brien and his wife (sorry Yappo), who have been working day and night for most of this year without pay just to be your candidate. There is hardly a person in Fairfax that Ted hasn’t met. Have you seen PUP Palmer knock on one household door ? Have you seen the PUP at one school fete in this electorate ? Have you seen him walk the streets of Nambour, Coolum, Buderim ?? O’Brien has been doing that for 9 months because he wants to represent the people of Fairfax. Wake up Australia !!! Palmer is bells and whistles. O’Brien is the real deal. O’Brien is substance.

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