Dobell – Australia 2013

1. It was a joke buddy, because you linked having a beer to a preference deal. 😉

2. James, I don’t even remotely believe your claim. I find it hard to believe that you would fail to use punctuation and misspell the word “advice” if you were a trained lawyer working to convert legislation into legalese. I also doubt you’d use a phrase like “legislation acts”, since that’s pretty much redundant.

3. pj don’t mean to be the Bearer of Bad News but more deals were done in the parliamentary bar or the nippon club across the road in carrs days than anywhere else in nsw parliament

   i doubt things have changed

4. glen just google my boss qc dennis murphy head of parliamentary counsel office during the 90’s posting a few comments on threat in few seconds dons’t meant i can type but you must have more time than i do

5. James, I don’t deny the idea that Dennis Murphy was a QC who worked in the parliamentary counsel office. I doubt that you worked for him as a lawyer. And it takes, maybe, an extra three seconds to include punctuation in what you write, and another one second to spell basic words like “advice” that, in a job such as the one you claim to have done, you would be expected to use with great regularity – it should be so ingrained that you wouldn’t make the mistake in the first place.

   If you have so little time, why are you posting here at all?

6. Glen, add poor sentence structure to your list of questionable issues.

   As for Dobell, hopefully the Thompson vote will be small, so there won’t be many preferences.

7. dear glen are you in the public service

8. glen just some incite into drafting legislation the first step is for one solictor to work on it then it is proofread and edited by another legal team then it goes before a copy checker which check for ,.? grammer etc or as we say at big school punctuation there are endless processes before being tabled to the relevant minister which may or may not comeback for re drafting

   this is just an extract from my up coming book drafting legislation for dummies or some might say a dumb down version of what goes on in the other big house.

9. I believe it’s called circumstantial evidence. You may be surprised to know that I too have had a beer with an MP from the other side of the fence without hatching a cunning plan. In any case, given Thomson’s background, it should be no surprise that he puts Labor before the party of big business. If anything the surprise is that he preferenced all the minor parties except the CEC before the two majors.

10. Pj please have a beer with thomo i have known him for years and others including guys from libs and union officials and i know thomos palm beach accountant who was just recently convicted on un related fraud matters to thomo, its not all strawberrys and cream.

    One of my closet friends is in what the unions call the fly in fly out team. if you don’t know what that is you only see the glossy layer of politics not it true under belly

    it is naive to think all things are above board, things are usually as clear as mud and mud sticks

    its great that you enjoy your politics and have a voice and share your opinion but there is so much more that goes on that the public is not privy to ie thats why wki leaks is such a threat to government

    remember Conroy’s new media control legislation which failed, our main craig thomson supported this legislation which would remove disclosure that belongs to citizens but are vested in and vindicated by political entities. Public rights cannot be vindicated and controlled by government,private citizens have rights which must be access an uncensored private media that remains within regulations and guidlines within our constitution

11. This is pretty close to the dumbest discussion this site has had. Let’s leave it there.

12. PJ
    Please no. Don’t stop , iv’e been enjoying it !!!.

13. well PJ its up to you as winediamond is enjoying rhetoric

14. should craig thomson get his redundancy as sitting member and there is no argument that he is a member but should he get 60k pay out for loosing but on the up side as with every member he will leading the charge for labours defeat australia wide

    CRAIG Thomson’s repeated denials that he used union credit cards to pay for prostitutes and pornographic movies have been undermined by a magistrate, who claims his lawyers have already “agreed” the former Labor MP was responsible. wens. australian newpaper

    2 or 3 weeks ago labour paid thomson 35k for legal fees.
    thomson earns 196k p/a plus every committee he is on he gets an extra 30k under gillard/rudd gov. the committees have increase 150% not a bad gravy train

15. He can invest some of the money while he shares a cell with Bubba. If of course the good justice system of Victoria finds him guilty…..

16. was craig thomson really worth it for labour
    thomo a unionist from vic airlifted into the seat of dobell the labour party new he had a lot skeletons in the cupboard

    how do you feel living on the central coast and have labour treat us with such contempt

    what do labour think of us Well i think saturday 7th we can show them never to take the central coast for granted

17. Come on James…. He contributed to the private entertainment industry….alledgedly….

18. thomo in is to cheap to buy protection unless the labour pays for it and prisoners don’t take credit cards
    Jail sources say his notoriety is such he faces similar risks to a jailbait but he could get Back door parole.and never never ever drop the soap

19. since thomson left the unions reports have a number of houses of ill repute have gone under, when thomson was asked for his thoughs on what went wrong he tried to blame wayne swann

    The private entertainment industry….alledgedly….mourns the loss of thomo union black amex card

20. Ha ha…. it wasn’t me….. He will end up in Ararat with the rock spiders or the farm near tatura….Cash only at the jail canteen i am told…Of course only if he is found guilty….

21. unfortunatly labour has worked hard to keep him out jail
    1st they sent it fair work australia which meant the cops had to wait over 3 yrs before they could investage

    and the fair work australia report… serious.. someone should have been sacked
    now some of his offences are outside statues and his lawyer has had the matter move to a different court so as he can’t face any real criminal charges

    but thomo is saying he didnt do it? but his lawyer told Melbourne Magistrates Court he did so they (the courts) are getting annoyed with the games that thomo and his legal team are playing so the matter might get moved back to a higher court

22. Stop it James….. This is almost fairytale stuff…Will they care about him after saturday or drop him like a hot spud?? He surely cant get too many votes can he??

23. look thomos not in it for the votes his in it for the money when he loses he get a 60k payout

    anyone else would be to embarrassed to show there head no not craig everybody wants to work on no not craig just SHOW ME THE MONEY

    they cant drop him because he could write a book and tell the world how an aussie PM worked to keep him out of jail not just gillard but labour thomo goes jail parliement is over thank f?#k it is finnaly over saturday

24. After all the commentary about how much the ALP was on the nose here and even with the Singleton backed pro-Lib candidate, I am amazed that the ALP is only 624 votes behind! Obviously, it will still be a loss but clearly winnable next time free of the Thomson saga.

25. Yappo, this should be a safe Labor seat in normal circumstances. Robertson’s the swinger.

26. DB, inclined to disagree that it’s ‘safe Labor under normal circumstances’. In a 50/50 election Labor would probably hold it, true, but it’s definitely winnable for the Liberals even under normal circumstances.

    Though the seat may have changed…

27. No I agree with DB when you look at the areas and the demographics of the electorate, it will generally favour labor. I think Saturdays results would worry the libs because it looks like if the Singleton puppets hadn’t been contesting, labor would probably have retained both seats so Abbott will have his work cut out if he wants to retain the area at the next election

28. guys! how is dobell a safe seat labour won it in kevin 07 before that the libs had it then 2010 labour it and thenm lost it 13

    a safe seat would be Kingsford Smith which labour has never lost till this year.

    they have done a great job labour and if people say abbott was mr negativity just watch labour. the real questions is how many opposition leaders will labour have in the next 3 yrs and will rudd make a challenge after 2yrs to become kevin in 15, hi my name is kevin im from queensland. and im a vegiemite kid sorry agotta zip what a international statesman

    did anyone on the coast vote for thomson or was him and his union mates multi voting, rumor has it not even his wife could vote for him

29. Libs got one of the largest swings in Dobell – agree with others though its probably a marginal labor seat – given that federal governments have always won two terms (bar once and then there was a great depression and talk about a second world war) I expect Mcnamara to be given a second go. Hope labor learn from its mistakes and come back strong as a good democracy needs a strong opposition – for me the pleasing aspect of this election was a swing to conservative leaning parties across Australia – and, the Greens vote was down nearly 500,000 – a good thing. Within 12 months SA and TAS will fall to coalition and everywhere bar ACT will be in coalition hands – for our economy a good thing. Already there is talk about more investment fromm businesses and my share portfolio and super are up and I put that down partly due to confidence in a coalition win

30. Someone (Ben?) should do a system like the cook measurement in the US that compares the results of the past five elections against the national 2PP, thus concluding that Dobell, for example, is ALP +2 (other examples are Sydney is probably ALP +15 and Lindsay might be +0.) It might even catch on in national coverage like it did in the US.

31. I do something like that with WA seats, but I compare to the 2pp result just in WA, rather than nationally. It’s a way of correcting for the fact that this is a very blue state, and individual seats usually move in line with the state (unless there’s specific local factors or major redistributions). Fremantle is just as unloseable for Labor as Sydney, despite the big difference in their margins. It’s also a lot safer, long-term, than Hindmarsh, Barton, McEwen, Bass, Braddon or Lyons (all further up the pendulum before last weekend, but now lost).

32. James- It was liberal for the first time in its history between 2001-2007. Won, retained then lost. Thats sort of like saying in 2009 that Bennelong is a labor seat because it was currently held by labor. I don’t know where your getting your facts from but KS was held quite easily by labor at this election never held by the liberals. As for the leadership issues, labor is the only party offering members a say on who should lead so it comes down to rank and file which makes it harder to depose a leader. Whether you like it or not Thompson obviously delivered when he was an MP and therefore carried over his personal vote with him when he ran as an independent. I think your just being nasty saying his wife couldn’t bring herself to vote for him, of course she did, give the man the right to innocence until the courts make a decision.

    jj- Looks like a huge swing against labor outside Sydney and obviously the Singleton puppets and Thompson are responsible for the large swing against labor on the Primary. I honestly think that swing will be corrected and labor should be a good chance of taking Dobell at the next election. McNamara isn’t a strong local individual and thats a quality you can’t gain in 3 years. Abbott will most likely try and save Wicks more then McNamara. I think the last thing the libs would want is every state to have a lib gov, its great in theory but realistically, it just contributes to a larger swing against you in time

33. Observer
    Three reasons why Dobell will stay with the Libs
    1/ Sophomore surge
    2/ Redistribution. Dobell will probably lose strong labor booths around Blue Haven
    3/ Labor denial. Still rating itself as”a 9 out 10 govt” !!!.
    Whenever i hear this claptrap, i just think “HOLD THAT THOUGHT” !!!!.

34. Whether Dobell goes to Labor in 2016 depends on the government. If it’s a 1977-style election, it obviously stays. If it’s a 1984-style election, toss-up. If it’s a 1998/2010-style election, it’s probably goes.

    I tend to think that Labor would win about 65-ish seats in 2016. But it’ll depend on how they go in Opposition.

35. Winediamond, not all seats receive a sophmore surge, even if Karen did, it would be smaller then the state swing to labor (depending how things go) but it would still probably be enough to knock off a 0.8 margin. You can’t really make assumptions about redistribution until they happen even so there was a big swing across the electorate so labor would just need a small one elsewhere. If you talk to people on the coast they love labor achievements but leadership and instabilitly cost it. The 9/10 was for governing Australia but 0/10 for governing themselves. If your going to refer to quotes use the whole quote.

    I genuinly think this seat will be a strong seat for labor to gain at the next election

36. Observer when was lost Bennelong 2009 or kevin 07 it was also redistribution in Bennelon 07, where as dobell 2001-2007 is more than one term and then again 2013 is a cycle forming.

    as far as thomo goes i haven’t heard good word said about on the coast even a the club if someone gets paged with the name craig thomson they get booed

    so if labour is such a proud brand why jill hall in shortland have a labour logo that you need glass to see
    chris bowen not even advertise labour and have everything in blue.

    in order for labour to more forward they need to take ownership and responsibility of what happened as hawk said if you can’t govern your party you can’t govern the nation.

    they thought it was a free ride well its over and could be for a long time, have a look a tim matherson today caught for riping of the taxpayer and asked to repay

    oh to quote you ,give the man the right to innocence until the courts make a decision. the mater refering to craig thomson has been before the court his legal said he did it and had it moved to different court,one minute his legal team said he didit , then thomson said he didnot. the magistrates court then told him to stop playing games.

    given your love of thomo you should follow his court proceedings in vic a little bit closer

37. I didn’t say Bennelong was lost in 09 all I was saying that in the year 2009 Bennelong was a labor seat but you could probably argue it was still a liberal leaning seat, same case for Dobell as a labor leaning seat. Don’t use the redistribution nonsence, its currently got the same 2007 boundaries and is a pretty safe liberal seat, Howard was just incapable of convincing his electorate his worth a vote as opposed to John Alexander.
    I didn’t say that labor was proud of its brand but if your going to mention Jill Hall, I’d say that shes been the member for a while and plenty of people know she is labor, she generally always wears red, her posters have the labor logo good size and relatively big on her tshirts. How big would you want it James???
    Bowens was orange and I would agree that he was very limited in labor logo similar to the liberal candidate for Jagga Jagga campaigning in yellow
    Your right there James and thats why labor is allowing members to decide the leader and to make it harder to change leaders and develop a revolving door with leaders.
    I don’t think labor considered it a free ride at all and I think you will find all partners of PMs use taxpayer money for their own use.
    I don’t love Craig at all James but I do believe in the presumption of innocence and i think your being a bit of a Sophie Mirrabella on this, your being completely bias. If the man has said he didn’t do it, wait until the courts can prove otherwise. I think these are serious allegations, its the only time the liberal party has ever cared about health workers and it was only to try and force a by-election but I’m not going to go right ahead and say his guilty because Rupert says I have to.

38. Observer i was walking around budgewoi jill hall labour logo was the size of a small chocolate bar
    bowen had no logos on posters i saw him on tv with his helpers in blue tshirts

    with matherson he was working and using tax payfunder cars for his job as sales rep

    please read court scripts from last week regarding thomson in victoria

    As they say your mind is like a parachute it only works when its open!!!!!

39. Shall we try to lift the tone a bit folks? Leave muckraking to the gutter press?

40. PJ thanks for the laugh

41. hope this helps so you dont need to research
    The Australian ‎- 6 days ago
    OUSTED MP Craig Thomson will not dispute specific facts of the allegations that he used union credit cards to pay for escort services and …

42. James please move on to a different topic or I will block you.

43. Union boss Paul Howes ‘to replace Bob Carr in Senate’ – The Age

    so much for labour showing interest in the central coast another union boss airlifted into federal politics

    The outgoing New South Wales Central Coast Labor MP Deborah O’Neill says she would be delighted to be pre-selected for the senate.

44. I don’t get that comment, the senate is state wide, house of reps is local. It doesn’t matter if every senator in the state is based in inner sydney, they can choose who they wish because the senate isn’t split into regions. And the rules in NSW labor about women being preselected make it more likely that someone like Deb will replace Carr rather then Howes. That has been in more recent papers as opposed to ones you refer to about Howes written straight after the election. Shame the gender rule won’t apply to Abbott’s cabinet though

45. labour can select anyone but what im saying is howes is still employed as a union boss as he said before this election he did not wish to enter polictics

    the people of the central coast miss out having a extra voice without MP Deborah O’Neill in the senate

    no where did i mention gender because unless your a public servant your position should be based on merit and merit alone.

    in regards to PM or deputy Pm are you saying it should always be one male and one female or the best person for the job

    Can you tell us, who should be replace in abbotts front bench and who should be the replacement

    why would you bring gender into this. this is about the central coast having another voice not another union BOSS who would not even run as a candidate another one that needs a free ride

46. I don’t think being a union boss matters they contribute significantly to Australia and the workplace and it will be a matter for the preselection process.
    The Central Coast had an opportunity to gave Deb O’Neill they rejected it. They really have 3 seats 2 represented by the liberal party one by labor. I hope Deb gets in the senate but this isn’t about the coast its about the entire of NSW. If she does get into the senate she won’t just be speaking for the coast but every region in NSW.
    I mention gender because the ALP rules in NSW mean a woman should get the senate spot if Carr retires and I was merely disappointed that liberals haven’t extended that to their own party.
    No I don’t think PM and Deputy need to be 1 male 1 female but you can’t deny that many women will feel let down and have a perception that politics is still ‘for the boys’.
    Just off the top of my head I think Sharman Stone, Fiona Nash, Kelly Dwyer, Nola Marino should be in cabinet as opposed to Peter Dutton, Eric Abetz, Kevin Andrews and Bruce Billson
    Like I said gender makes it more likely that Deb will replace Carr as opposed to Howes, thats why I brought it into this. Why does the central coast need another voice when it has more seats then other regions. If it needs another voice you are saying that the liberals are incapable of representing the region and also redistribution should add another seat on the Coast. You need to understand the purpose of the Senate is a state purpose not a state region. Paul Howes makes a great contribution to the labor movement and while I hope Deb gets the spot because she makes a contribution to the labor party, Paul is a great quality candidate. Trust me Paul would make a greater contribution to the nation then Bill Heffernan

47. you mention gender because the ALP rules in NSW mean a woman should get the senate spot if Carr retires

    are pushing your wheel barrow that labour is yet again doing what it whats

    you read selectively missing points and Paul is a great quality candidate but he choose not to run as a candidate. and said he had no interest in running

    please explain hang on got a free pass into the senate

48. It would also show respect for the forum if you tried to use coherent, well-formed sentences.

49. no labor is doing whats fair and what will promote women and get more women involved in politics so we can have a diverse parliament where every Australian male or female feels represented fairly.

    I don’t necesarily get your argument about Paul being bad because he didn’t run in the lower house. Are you therefore saying that every liberal senator is poor quality because they never ran in the lower house?

    The senate isn’t a free pass and the results show you really have to work hard in the senate. I think its a tough job and alot of work is required so its anything but a free pass and I respect those who put their hand up to be in the senate to give their time to make Australia a better country.

50. in simple english he said he did not want to be a candidate. just like there will be not carbontax before the election only to lie to the australian people and give it to us
    paul howes didnot have the back bone to be voted on by the australian public
    now he wants to be in the senate

    can you understand that before the election paul say NO to federal polictics

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