Dobell – Australia 2013

1. Well what electorate do u live in just out of curiosity? And if you lived here, you would know the type of vicious dishonest campaign that is always run by the libs out here

2. Observer, I live in Prime Minister Abbott’s electorate.

3. wow talk about arrogance

4. Not just arrogance, Observer, but full-fledged hubris. Some would call it “tempting fate”.

5. Either way Tony Abbott would be Australia’s worst PM ever and would probably deliver labor a landslide victory at the next possible opportunity. Hard to see him even last a whole term

6. Gotta laugh at Karen McNamara calling Emma McBride Labor’s third choice, considering Karen is actually a third choice for the liberals and then says thats in the past we’ve moved forward. Terrible liberal campaign and a disaster for the coast if her and the other lib candidate won

7. Observer, that’s actually somewhat debatable – “worst PM ever” is a big claim to make. Even Abbott himself considers Liberal PM Billy McMahon to be the worst PM Australia has ever had (rating Gillard as “the worst PM since McMahon” – that gives you a sense of how bad McMahon must have been if Abbott couldn’t bring himself to put Gillard below him when trying to assert how bad Gillard was).

   I think Tony Abbott as PM would be a mistake for the country, based on his policies and his attitudes. But I would not presume to claim that he would be “the worst PM ever” based solely on the fact that I disagree with his policies and his politics.

8. Glen, I’d agree with you about the hubris if DB were Tony Abbott. I think “taunting” is a little closer to the mark (and not something unique to DB in the comments on this site).

9. RichR – thanks, but it’s hard to reason with what seeming is an intellectually challenged tosser.

10. Glen
    You look at things as a mathematician. I look at the same things as an historian. That is with the proven behavior of humans over 7000- 300,000 years (depending on whatever beliefs one holds).
    Julia is unquestionably the worst PM ever on many levels.
    On her termination she left the country divided, & enraged. McMahon never enraged anybody, nor divided the country. He engendered the contempt of pity. He simply wasn’t even close to being up to the job.
    As for your fears about Abbott. They are groundless. Abbott is not popular to begin with, & if he fails to grow into the job (as all leaders must), he will be replaced/knifed !! (probably by Turnbull) within 18 months.
    However both of you would do well to recognise your personal prejudice, & consider the following facts
    1/ Abbott will have an enormously talented ministry which can only be improved with a reshuffle.
    2/ he was a highly successful minister himself
    3/ he has the direct, & constant advice, & mentoring of Howard (the 2nd most successful PM in Australia’s history)
    4/ He is no fool.
    5/ He is considered enormously likeable by those he works with, & who know him well.

    I’m confident he will learn from Hawke, & to some extent Howard, & be a CEO style PM.
    If there are big, or unpopular decisions to make, he will leave those to the ministers concerned.
    The big question will be whether he makes Turnbull Treasurer in 12- 18 months time, after the NBN is finalised. Whether Abbott is prepared to allow Turnbull that kind of sovereignty, & power. Or to put it more crudely to allow another rooster in the hen house !!!

11. Geez WD, put a tin-foil hat on.

    Different people will feel different about the various PMs that we have had, but claiming to be some kind of amatuer historian then listing the most subjective reasons on why Abbott is the next coming of Christ (which, more objectively, polls show the general public do not share), is pulling more than an average long bow.

    Seriously, you basically just wrote: “Gillard is the worst because I don’t like her, Abbott is the best because he’s amazing and I like him.” At least try to put some kind of policy achievement or failure to back up your most spurious claims.

12. Well said Winediamond!!!!!:)

13. RichR – I’m referring to his obvious position within the Liberal Party, or at least his close association to it. Tony Abbott isn’t the only Liberal, and the presumption to call Tony Abbott PM now is hubris.

    DB – thanks for finally making it official – you’re not interested in being reasonable or thoughtful in a debate, when challenged you immediately revert to personal attacks. You are representative of the problem with modern politics (on both sides). But hey, I disagree with you, so I must be “an intellectually challenged loser”. That’s right, an intellectually challenged loser with a PhD in Mathematics.

    I recall you, not that long ago really, spitting the dummy over me daring to suggest that your leaking of internal polling numbers cannot be taken at face value because we cannot know your motives – that one should take such leaking with a grain of salt, simply because there has been, in the past, leaking done for PR purposes.

    But clearly I’m the intellectually challenged one, because only someone who is intellectually challenged could possibly provide an extensive and considered opinion that doesn’t amount to cheerleading for one side of politics over the other.

14. Glen, it was not directed at you. My apologies. Actually I find your contributions quite well considered and reasoned although we don’t always agree.

    I just get a bit sick of Observer getting stuck into me every single time for reporting what I know.

    Glen, you do a really good job. Keep it up.

15. Ah Glen, just had a re-read. I can see why you came to that conclusion. Sorry. Honestly wasn’t directed at you.

16. Winediamond – I’m not going to waste time arguing with you over your opinion of Gillard. PJ covered that part nicely.

    What I will point out is that talent isn’t the only relevant factor in how well a government will run, that private likeability isn’t necessarily even a desirable trait in a PM (it’s a debatable issue), that being good as a minister doesn’t mean you would be good as a prime minister, and that advice from Howard doesn’t make it any better, either (Gillard had advice from Hawke, after all). And whether Abbott is a fool or not is entirely debatable. I could provide a link to a video showing examples of Abbott acting highly foolishly – but I won’t, because it’s not relevant.

    But the real reason why I think he would be a mistake for the country is a combination of three things:
    1. Lack of real leadership
    2. Policies that are primarily about reverting to 9 years ago, despite significant progress since then.
    3. An attitude that places the budget ahead of almost everything else… except for middle- and upper-class welfare (and big-business welfare).

    On that third point, I’m going to point out that he’s recently announced that the 5% reduction in Carbon emissions promise he made is now “non-core” – if the budgeted amount isn’t enough to get there, too bad, we don’t get there. I’m going to point out that his Paid Parental Leave considers a woman who makes $150,000 a year to be worth more when having a baby than a woman who makes $50,000 a year. Meanwhile, his attitude to the Fringe Benefits tax amounts to a contradiction of all that the Liberals are supposed to stand for – after all, the changes involved removing a loophole designed to let people cheat and rort the system; I thought the Liberals were supposed to be against tax cheats… Oh right, they’re only against tax cheats if they’re poor.

    And on that second point, consider that he’s going to “scrap the carbon tax”… by which he means the ETS that was supported by both John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull. And his policy on Asylum Seekers is about making it harder for them while reimplementing the program that Howard used, that treated people seeking asylum as though they were terrorists.

    But of course, it’s my opinion, and I do not claim any of the above to be incontrovertible fact. What I claim it to be is an argument that I put forward for why I fear the prospect of an Abbott government. I don’t presume to tell you that you should be scared of an Abbott government, I just provide you with the explanation for why I am. Think about it.

17. DB – no problems, I know it can be easy to accidentally leave out a minor clarification that makes a big difference to how something is read.

18. PJ
    I was merely being brief, & succinct.
    Think of a PM that on termination has left the country in the state (or more specifically the mood) that Julia did. Both Rudd, & Julia were fired by their own side, rather than allowed to face the people. These are inescapable FACTS…..
    History is all about the study of cause, & effect.
    The reality is that Abbott has the opportunity of becoming the most successful PM in Australia’s history. And he could also be on the backbench in 18 months. It has nothing to do with likes, & dislikes.
    Policy achievement is a separate discussion

19. (and I retract the retort I wrote, of course)

20. Glen
    I’ll respond later on the main thread
    cheers

21. Look DB I’ve said it before, what is frustrating is arrogance and reliance on polling. You report really only small sample polls which are completely different (SA individual galaxy poll contradicted your claims) Im not saying you can’t report but when you say seat is gone on can’t be won your really opening yourself up for negative comments because i genuinly believed you about Adelaide and then I see a poll suggesting the opposite. I’d also just say your not the only one who knows people in political party, I’d actually note some of your claims in certain seats are incorrect but I’ll let you know when you see the results.

    Winediamond,
    1. Tony Abbotts ministry isn’t strong, theres alot of deadwood and really he can’t make too many changes and if Sinodinus loses his seat then thats a huge blow as his spot will be taken by hacks like Mal Brough
    2. No one remembers Abbott for being a good health minister. Health isn’t a portfolio the libs run well and generally cut from which Abbott failed to stop as minister
    3. I don’t think length can measure success. Howard did well at elections when he was PM but he has a long career where he failed to cut through his own party and eventually the Australian people. If he had retired 07 would have been a much closer race. Not great judgement of Howard
    4. I could link 100s of videos of Abbott that prove he is a fool
    5. Libs saying they like their leader, who would have thought

22. WD and Glen – We should probably comment on this in the common thread. I’ll go there now.

23. Oberver – I’m not going to respond to anything else you have to say. I shouldn’t have written what I did and did so out of frustration for treating this site as your Newscorp/Fairfax media blog play thing. I do find you extremely partisan and not particularly considered in your arguments, just like the Tele or SMH blogs. There is no place for that rubbish here in my view.

    For instance (and not for the first time) from you “you would know the type of vicious dishonest campaign that is always run by the libs out here”. Seriously, have you been looking at McMahon? It happens on both sides and the ALP is no better than the Libs or Greens. Sure, it may not be right, but as I said, go down to McMahon or Bass. As for dishonest campaigning generally, Rudd’s done a pretty good job of it from what I have seen. Only problem is that he got found out by Treasury.

24. Look DB I’ve said it before that I’m happy for you to scrutinise my comments on particular seats and question why I view that way. I don’t see at all any comparison between my comments and a blog from the SMH. So I’d ask that you don’t just attack my views tell me what you find wrong with them and I’m more then happy to tell you.

    And on the vicious campaign comment i made, i noted that you have criticised labor in both the seats mentioned (McMahon and Bass) so its only fair then that the libs on Dobell get a mention isn’t it?

25. Observer,

    Serious question: if you don’t want to “rely on the polling” then what the hell do you want to rely on?

    Every poll says the same thing now, basically. How is it “arrogant” to accept that if every single poll says the same thing, that’s probably what’s going on?

26. MDMConnell,

    Thanks for the question, happy to answer. I should have been more clearer what I met. I have no problem with DB saying what his pollng says for a seat (Strong trend for X party) but when you start saying this seat is gone for X, thats when your taking it a bit far. One example was when he said Adelaide and Hindmarsh were gone for labor with Wakefield next. Obviously a smaller sample made the result incorrect. I accept alot of my claims will be wrong but I don’t think you can say from small sample polling a seats gone, you can definately say its trending well for a particular party. And its OK for the polling to be wrong thats why personally I’d prefer to be able to rely on other factors aswell as polling because it limits discussion on the “gone” seats which may not necesarrily be gone

27. MDM – I think Observer, once again, is either intentionally or unintentionally misleading in his commnets. I did say just prior to the campaign that I thought there would be strong swings in SA. This has turned out not to be the case, although the Coalition are still a chance in 3 of these. The only seat I remember calling as ‘gone’ was the marginal seat of Corangamite. The other one I certainly think is gone is Lindsay. I can’t remember calling any others, but I’d say Bass and Braddon are probably there. I’d suggest to Observer that there are many many more gone based on the current polling available in the mainstream media outlets.

28. I’ve just looked at Adelaide, Hindmarsh, and Day 14, and don’t see where DB said those seats, or any others, were gone. He’s said Ellis will have trouble, that the polling showed a given TPP or swing, and that Hindmarsh was lineball. So where are you getting that from, Observer? There are people saying such and such a seat is gone, but I don’t recall where DB has done it.

29. I honestly am not going to look at qoutes and dates i dont have the time but i recall this seat is unloseable for the LNP, this seat is gone etc. I’m not going to get in argument there have been warnings im not going to disrespect them and attack u personally like you have to me but please I respect your consevative views do the same for my progressive ones, dont rubbish my views as a SMH blogger because they are different to yours I’d never call you an Andrew Bolt hack because views should be respected, i was a bit disappointed you couldn’t show that

30. Dobell I think is a bit like the seat of McMillan, generally stays marginal and tends to lean to one party most of the time. All up I’d say as long as labor can get mid-high 30s, they could be a decent chance on holding onto the seat once preferences are accounted for

31. cant believe that you say abbotts ministry isn’t strong, have a look at labour they sack rudd he takes his front bench with him. Gillard comes in they sack her she takes her front bench with her which includes the worlds greatest treasure in swann, so we have bowen as treasurer no experience and hates swann so they don’t talk. is it labour policy to give every one a go on the front bench then let them go to the back bench?

    No normal government sacks its leaders when in power look at how well it works for
    labour NSW labour started it after carr and then a revolving door of premiers but once have tried a trick a few times it fools nobody

    liberal won’t be swapping or sacking its leader if abbott is PM have a look it dosent work just a cheap trick

32. Look james im happy to give my reason a comment in the day 26 thread that way we can keep discussions on this page about Dobell as it is a key seat

33. “liberal won’t be swapping or sacking its leader if abbott is PM”

    AHAHAHAHAHA

    Now, that is a laugh.

34. sorry the joke is the swinging door of labour leadership rudd guillard rudd after this election who will be the next labour leader or are the numbers so bad it could be BOB Carr

    no previous federal gov. has sacked a PM but twice, so this labour Gov has at least has one legacy besides over spending and no policy of boat arrivals

    liberal wont do that they don’t have the internal problems that labour has a this time,

35. James please move your talks to the day 26 newsfeed this is getting off track

36. Jack: “No normal government sacks its leaders when in power”
    Govts of both sides of politics do it all the time. Memories are very short it seems, so short that you neglect to remember that both the LIBs in Victoria and CLP in NT have both done so in the last year!

    The CLP was so kind to actually change the Chief Minister while he was in Japan! Historically, there are a wealth of examples.

    “liberal won’t be swapping or sacking its leader if abbott is PM”
    Don’t say such foolish things that may come back to haunt you. If Abbott is elected as PM and is a disaster at some point which damages the Coalition brand, he is expendable like all leaders. Politics is politics.

37. James, & Yappo
    Thanks for your combining to endorse all of my predictions!!! Half from each of you it seems!!!.

38. Observer, I don’t have conservative views, and you have most certainly attacked me, specifically by repeatedly and intentionally misrepresenting what I said despite my repeatedly pointing out that you were doing so. Misrepresenting my politics is just another example of you repeating what you have been told specifically is incorrect. So your protests of having respect are impossible to believe. The difference between you and me politically is, at heart, that I am a realist and don’t have the fault of assuming that most people are like me, so when a bad election is coming, I look at it for what it is rather than pretending that polls don’t matter and assuming that rumours from here or there and my own perceptions about Abbott and the Coalition and their policies (or lack thereof) have a damned thing to do with how other people vote.

39. Swinging voter here.
    Won’t vote ror Labour and refuse to vote for Tony Abbott. Agree with other comments, bring in Turnbull and Liberals will get my vote, otherwise it’s an independant, but which one to choose for Dobell?

40. labour supports another union person for Dobell sometimes I think labour just takes us for granted

    [SNIP – breaching comment policy by posting entire text of article]

41. Sorry James but this will be deleted posting a whole unattributed article and without a link! I mean what is the point?

42. the article is from todays Australian I know its hard for some people when you only vote labour or libs but I vote for the best party of the day 07 it was rudd but have a hard look at Thomson and what he has done for the labour movement and then look at the revolving door of PM I know people that have voted labour all there life and voted for libs first time in 2010 and will do it again

43. Observer, I thought this site was for political junkies who like me are more interested in the twists and turns of political campaigns than actually expressing our personal political views. With that in mind, may I suggest you join Facebook where you will find an endless supply of pseudo political, fact bereft, tantrum sprouting sites that would welcome your childish unsubstantiated drivel.

44. James, it’s a breach of the comments policy to paste huge slabs of text – you can post a link if you want.

    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/commentspolicy

45. Lawrie McKenna, the current popular Moyor of Gosford and former Australian fast bowler, Nathan Bracken have today confirmed they will be preferencing the Liberal Party on Sydney’s most listened to morning radio programme, the Alan Jones Morning Show. Mr McKenna advised Mr Jones that ‘team Central Coast’ were able to secure infrastructure upgrade commitments from the Liberal Party in exchange for preferences.

    Based on my hearing, the Central Coast constituents could do well to support these Independents or the Liberal Party to obtain badly needed infrastructure in the region; infrastructure which appears to have been badly neglected by the Labor State and Federal Governments.

    I expect both candidates will influence the result in both seats and I predict that both seats are likely to be gained by the Coalition.

46. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see Bracken’s preferences giving this seat to Liberal if they fail to win in their own right.

47. it doesnt take theoretical physicist to know thomson and labour had done a deal when albo had beer with thomo
    Bracken’s giving preferences to Liberal if they fail to win in their own right.if you remember big clivie was a libs member

48. Ok I think all this talk of preferences is wrong.

    On the green ballot paper it is the individual electors who choose the preferences. The candidates (and parties) only make suggested preferences on their HTV cards. I am sure that I read somewhere that less than 25% of people actually follow the HTV suggestions and this is evidenced by preference distribution breakdowns.
    So it doesn’t matter who a candidate “preferences”, it matters who the electors preference.

    As far as dirty tricks campaigns in Dobell the LIBS and ALP are almost as bad as each other and I for one am sick of it.

    I will not be giving my vote to either of them, not will I give it to such an obvious LIB supporter like Singo (Bracken & McKinna). This is a democracy not a duopoly. There are other options like the Palmer United Party who so far have run a very clean campaign in Dobell. They will get my vote and hopefully other people will do the same. Maybe that way the other two major parties will get a well deserved wake-up call.

49. Don’t enter the legal profession James.

50. PJ wish you told me earlier as worked in Parliament with bob carrs first & 2nd term in the parliamentary counsel office which meant working on legislation acts and regulations that ministers of the crown would like to present before the house. our role was to write these bills into legal jargon my boss was QC dennis murphy and a range barristers and solicitors
    thanks for the advise

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