ALP 5.1%
Incumbent MP
Craig Thomson (IND), since 2007.
Geography
NSW Central Coast. Dobell covers most of Wyong Shire and parts of the City of Gosford. Dobell covers Lake Tuggerah and the suburbs surrounding it, including Wyong, Bateau Bay, The Entrance and Toukley, while those parts of Wyong Shire from Budgewoi Lake north are not part of the electorate. The seat also covers a small part of the City of Gosford, extending as far as Wyoming and the northern parts of Terrigal.
History
Dobell was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded. It was first won by Michael Lee (ALP). Lee held the seat by largely safe margins for over a decade, becoming a federal minister from the 1993 election until Paul Keating’s defeat in 1996, when Lee came close to losing Dobell.
Lee served as a senior member of the Labor frontbench from 1996 to 2001, when he was defeated by Ken Ticehurst (LIB). Lee went on to run as the ALP candidate for Lord Mayor of Sydney in 2004 and served on the City of Sydney council from 2004 to 2008 after losing the lord mayoralty to Clover Moore.
Ticehurst won the seat twice before losing in 2007 to Craig Thomson (ALP), then Assistant Secretary of the Health Services Union. Thomson has since faced accusations in 2009 that his union credit cards had been used to bankroll his Dobell campaign and to pay for escort services.
Candidates
- Greg Owen (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Craig Thomson (Independent)
- Christian Kunde (Bullet Train For Australia)
- Emma McBride (Labor)
- Nathan Bracken (Independent)
- Kate McGill (Palmer United Party)
- Hadden Ervin (Christian Democratic Party)
- Karen McNamara (Liberal)
- Sue Wynn (Greens)
Assessment
Dobell is a marginal Labor seat. A seat held by a 5.1% margin by Labor would normally be vulnerable in current circumstances. The trail of scandals left behind by Craig Thomson makes it very difficult to see how Labor would be able to retain the seat.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Craig Thomson | ALP | 38,268 | 46.27 | -0.08 |
| John McNamara | LIB | 33,287 | 40.24 | -2.05 |
| Scott Rickard | GRN | 7,121 | 8.61 | +3.24 |
| Gavin Brett | FF | 2,033 | 2.46 | +0.75 |
| Rhonda Avasalu | CDP | 2,005 | 2.42 | +0.54 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Craig Thomson | ALP | 45,551 | 55.07 | +1.14 |
| John McNamara | LIB | 37,163 | 44.93 | -1.14 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. Those booths in Gosford local government area have been grouped together. Booths in Wyong have been divided into five areas. Most of these booths are clustered around Lake Tuggerah. These booths have been divided between North, East, Wyong and Toukley. Booths to the west have been grouped together.
The ALP won a majority in five out of six areas, ranging from 50.5% in Gosford to 60.3% in the north. The Liberal Party won a 59.8% majority in the west.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 7.84 | 55.76 | 18,119 | 21.91 |
| Wyong | 8.74 | 56.16 | 14,823 | 17.92 |
| North | 6.87 | 60.25 | 12,729 | 15.39 |
| Gosford | 11.19 | 50.53 | 12,544 | 15.17 |
| Toukley | 8.23 | 59.73 | 3,680 | 4.45 |
| West | 10.49 | 40.22 | 1,335 | 1.61 |
| Other votes | 8.64 | 53.28 | 19,484 | 23.56 |
If Thomson does run again, I expect him to finish fourth, like Adele Carles did in the state seat of Fremantle at the recent WA election.
Regardless if Thomson runs again or not, barring a significant swing back to the government in the polls, this should be a fairly easy pickup for the Liberals.
I’ve seen polls in this seat combined with Robertson which show a swing in 2PP terms to the Liberal Party of up to 20%. I doubt Labor can retain either Dobell or Robertson in this environment.
And Thomson is running again as an Independent… I expect a fate similar to that of Adele Carles, as I mentioned earlier.
Source: http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=872536&vId=3967106&cId=Politics
I think if he runs he gets Parliamentary superannuation, even if he loses. If he retires without contesting, then he doesn’t get it.
I don’t believe Labor can win Dobell after this saga, but I’ll be interested to see if he chooses to preference either party. My guess is that he will not, which can only hurt Labor from a split vote. What was already hard for Labor has just become tougher here.
I heard that Clive Palmer’s Party will also have a Candidate for Dobell. Maybe it is time for a new party to shake things up. So far his policies look ok.
Disagree KC – Dobell has a good liberal candidate and I hope she wins. I agree with you that Clive Palmers party is refreshing but I doubt that will win any seats in the lower house – if I’m right then the vote is wasted. For me I want to see a landslide win to the coalition, the removal of Oakshott and Windsor and to be fair return the seat of Port Melbourne to labor so the greens have no seats in the lower house. If i could dream it would be nice if the coalition could go close to winning the senate – won’t happen but I’ve read some political commentaries say the libs could well be 1 or 2 of outright control.
Even with all of Palmer’s funds, PUP will be lucky to get their deposit back outside QLD (and even then).
While people respect him, I believe most people recognise his whole deal as being pretty narcistic and self-serving.
Disagree JJ, a landslide to any party is never good. In today’s political arena it seem you only need to win by a couple of percent to declare a mandate, imagine what would happen if any party won by a landslide.
Now for PJ, you may well be right on your first point as lot of voters tick the same box every election with no thought. On your second point I would hardly call a party who’s policies are aimed at benefiting the majority of average Australians self serving, but I would certainly call the LNP’s work choices self serving. As for KC, I agree, we do need a shakeup, a two party system of being either in power or opposition equates to a win win situation and a big pay cheque with no effort or consideration of the general public required.
Clive Palmers party is made up of ordinary Australians. Not incorporated with any large multinationals, nor any trade unions. I think it’s the sort of thing Australia needs right now so I am seriously considering casting a vote for Kate McGill.
new party 21st century party australia are running a guy Stuart Christie just saw his youtube clip with arnold schwarzenegger and he has offered 50% of earnings if elected to be donated back to
community as a protest against craig thomson and what he stands for
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDUtWEIZnsg
we need choice between labour and libs or else we get more people like thomson
^The 21st Century candidate needs to bring his advertising into the 21st century!
I probably missed it but she seems to be the wife of the 2010 candidate? (On her website her husbands name is given as John)
good to see you notice the policy and are able to comment on those issues like regional wyong airport, donating 50% of salary back to community.check out party web site for more policy
i wish to highlight the over payment of the current politicians. the level of corruption within the labour party obed, macdonald etc and thomson facing 173 fraud chargers then the labour import peter slipper.
Are your comments based on negative spin just tear it down regardless of the good to the community. a regional airport for wyong will bring 250 million to the central coast each year
also i am not related to or married to any political candidate from 2010
Yappo: “I probably missed it but she seems to be the wife of the 2010 candidate? (On her website her husbands name is given as John)”
stuart “also i am not related to or married to any political candidate from 2010”
You are also not a “she” unless I am mistaken????
That comment was in ref to the LIB candidate, I’m surprised that you thought it was about you.
My slight attempt at wit about the linked youtube, above, should be taken as just that. If you are going to overreact about such an innocuous comment, politics may not be your calling as no doubt much worse will be thrown at you by the major parties. This is not really the place to campaign. It really was a simple throw away comment.
However, if you do intend to advance yourself elsewhere you may wish to be specific, grammatically correct & comprehensive so that people clearly understand your platform.
According to this report Labor have not yet actually endorsed Trevor Drake as their candidate
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Election-2013/2013/08/05/Labor_yet_to_decide_on_Dobell_candidate_893583.html
What’s going on? Are they looking for another candidate to parachute in at the last minute?
They’re probably just concerned about the fact that he was a Liberal guy until 2008, and that he had no competition for the pre-selection. I’d expect that the only way they don’t endorse him is if they decide to kick him out of the party, in which case it would be because of suspicions that he isn’t being honest about his change of heart. But in all seriousness, they’ll probably endorse him before candidate nominations close.
Seems that Howes may have been sounded out? http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/dumping-of-labor-candidate-for-dobell-flies-in-face-of-rudds-promise-20130805-2ra87.html
I have heard that Labor’s internal polling demonstrates that they are a good chance of retaining the seat. I believe this seat will be close and could go either way.
ABC reporting that the ALP has made a selection: “Former Wyong councillor Emma McBride to be Labor’s candidate for Dobell @abcnews @925CentralCoast”
The fact that it has taken the ALP this long to pre-select a candidate for this seat, plus the fact that Craig Thompson is running, means that this seat will feature as a major anomaly. The Liberal Candidate has been campaigning but doesn’t quite have a personality, the ALP hasn’t had the warm-up and the independent is being dogged by incidents outside of the game. The form-guide would have to be thrown out completely in this one.
Apparently internal polling has this 55/45 to labor on Monday
55/45 to labor still stands with Thomson attracting 6% of the vote
ALP internal polling? If that is accurate then that lead is somewhat surprising…
Rumour circulating that Nathan Bracken, former Australian fast bowler is running in this seat as an Independent supported by John Singleton and will preference the Coalition candidate.
I expect he will get probably around 5-7% of the vote.
Here’s the report
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/central-coast/millionaire-john-singleton-to-fund-lawrie-mckinna-and-nathan-bracken-as-independents-in-robertson-and-dobell/story-fngr8h0p-1226695292365
Well DB rumours half right. He is running, but is giving preferences to whichever party has the best deal and plan for the region. ATM only labor does
My inside info is that Singleton wants change on the Central Coast and take away the preferencing support to the ALP from Mr Thomson in this seat especially. Mr Singleton is large shareholder / part owner of 2GB radio station which must be said, tends to have Coalition leanings.
Observer I cannot understand the comment regarding the ALPs ‘plan for the region’. Unemployment is the major issue in this region and I would not have thought a continuation of the 20% unemployment that the ALP have bestowed upon it indicates a plan personally. The region has gone down hill tremendously under the ALP’s tenure with unemployment doubling in the last 6 years.
I still suspect the ALP will win Dobell given the high unemployment and unemployed persons tend to vote for the ALP. The Coalition have a much stronger chance in the neighbouring seat and more affluent and aspirational seat of Robertson.
I don’t know how you decide the major issues on the central coast, but trust me its actually health, infrastructure and educatin and if you look on my post in Robertson you will see how how chances of the libs gaining any CC seat is sslipping….
According to GhostWhoVotes, a recent Newspoll has 54/46 to the Coalition in Dobell and Robertson based on primaries of 50 and 35, respectively. If we assume for the sake of argument that the poll accurately reflects current voting intentions, does this poll mean the Coalition would Dobell at an election today or that it is routing the ALP in Robertson?
Yeah, for all we know it’s 60/40 libs in one seat, and 52/48 ALP in the other.
I think this will be much closer than Robertson.
the latest newspoll says it all -it is all over – libs to win dobell and surprisingly robertson – the labor candidate in robertson hasn’t been too bad – BUT – the swing is on – I note a comment above that liberal candidate for dobell lacks personality -I’ve met her – she is sharp – knows her stuff and will be a great representative for dobell in a future lib govn.
jj, it’s not over until the fat MP sings. There’s still 17 or 18 days to go.
the labor candidate has ties to thomson union when will labour learn about union officials and with thomson track record not a good look labour in dobell, they think we are dumb.
now thomson is defending his postion to spend uinion money how he see fit so he not deninying he spent the money anymore because the case has been put to different court.
also labour party has paid thomson laywer the $34500.00 towards his legal fees i wish i could get kicked out of the labour party
Umm she’s a chief pharmacist, shes been on local council, grew up in the electorate how isn’t she a good pick, definately more connection to the area then Karen McNamara
she voted to save thomson not good move when labour kicked him out shortly after she voted to save him
what do you mean?
the labour party took a vote to expell thomson she voted to save him, which her vote was important and saved him from being kicked out but a month or so later they kicked thomson out any way. so yes i am questioning judgement and she was 2nd pick remember trevour drake
Drake was Labor candidate for the nearby seat of Terrigal at the 2011 state election, but also a former Liberal Councillor on Gosford City Council it labour a while but not a good look another laywer but former liberal party member
Well james what I would say is that the ALP took no vote of what your on about in regards to Thomson, even if they did she probably took the approach that its not for her to decide on someones guilt but I think you have got your facts wrong. As for Trevor Drake, he was never actually approved of as a candidate, he was the only one to nominate but eventually McBride put her hand up and won immediately
I’m tipping Bracken to get 3% at most, I don’t think he will do well at all and wouldn’t be surprised if him running has no influence at all. Whoever wins should get elected without the need for his preferences.
I’m not so sure Observer, I think that Bracken might pull above that from the uninformed voters.
Rumour that the Singleton candidates will print double sided HTV cards which puts libs ahead of labor one side and labor ahead of libs on the other
Internal polling suggests Bracken is pulling about 7-10% and his preferences are going to the Liberals.
Bracken isn’t polling that in polls I’ve seen and on election day you are going to be disappointed when you see the HTV cards
G’day Observer, haven’t seen you around for a while. I’ve actually seen his how to vote card mate.
Well all i can say is don’t say i didn’t warn u. I think you’ll find anyway at most he should receive 5%. Major parties should get 40% each take a few give a few. One benefit is that the McBride name is strongest in the Entrance part of the electorate, with Bracken actually taking votes off the liberals in their stronger parts. Libs have dumped significant resources into this seat in the last few days and are now trying to smear Emma directly which isn’t working so well
I’d also note that Craig Thomson will probably do well in Tuggerah parts where he haas been campaigning the most on issues
hahahaha….Craig Thomson…..how funny. Is he getting the ALP to pay for his HTV cards too?
Right o DB, you clearly no nothing about NSW seats, guess thats why you sorta pick random seats and go with a vibe. Every poll says Thomson is 6%, I’d give it 5. Believe it or not DB in the area called central coast (not sydney) and you can’t deny that Thomson will get a vote and incumbency is good to have and he has actually done stuff done as much as i dont like him running. So he does have advantages and could very well get 4-5%. If you wanna make attacks like that fine, dobell is used to having liberals attack and make up stuff when they know they have an uphill battle to win
Observer, don’t get personal mate. I know you live on the Central Coast. Didn’t mean to offend you.