Dawson – Australia 2013

1. Ironically, this is the type of seat that could change hands if KAP preferences Labor. Sophomore surge might just get the Lib home but I expect it to be closer than some might.

2. Bronwyn Taha is Labor’s candidate for Dawson. This seat will be interesting with Katter’s preferences being influential.

3. George Christensen is a bit of an outspoken chap, probably best known for going to that Geert Wilders rally. I hear that Katter has no time for him, thinks he’s a party hack, not a true representative of the country etc, so I could see preferences going against him here.

   DB may be able to confirm or deny rumours about some internal disquiet about Christensen’s performance? Just something I’ve heard from a Mackay local.

4. On past evidence, I would have thought being “outspoken” or “controversial” is not always such a bad thing in a rural Queensland seat……

5. PJ, he is not really my cup of tea personally. But I think he is a reasonable MP to his constituents.

6. Agree with DB about this seat being interesting. Katter could possibly pass Labor here by takign Greens and Palmer preference, especially if Palmer cuts more off the LNP than expected.

   I can’t see Labor beating the LNP on Katter preferences as too much leaks back to the LNP, but if Katter leapforgs Labor and it coems down to two party preferred between the LNP and Katter it is in play.

7. Justin Englert is Katter’s Australian Party candidate for Dawson.

   http://www.whitsundaytimes.com.au/news/katter-endorses-federal-candidate-for-dawson/1816069/

8. I’ve always thought that KAP will do better here than in Capricornia. Interestingly in polling, when asked the preferred PM, when looking at intentions of voters by party, a slight majority of KAP prefer KRudd and if your a KAP voter, then you probably are inclined to vote through personality, just like many minor parties. This could mean two things:
   1) That rather then the state election preferences which went 65/35 to the LNP, at the federal election KAP preferences could go 50/50 which, if the green vote holds relatively the same and the ALP stay ahead of the LNP, could see labor make gains

   2) KAP preferences Rudd in certain seats to give a pro-rudd image to get voters to have a favourible view of KAP which could see KAP get crucial positioning on the primary to try and gain seats.

   I believe that Labor will do well here. It was a remarkable effort to get the vote in the 40s here at of all seats and if KAP have an open ticket this seat will fall. I’d put this in the danger list if I were an LNP official

9. Surge of support for Rudd Labor in this electorate.

   This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Dawson show that support for Labor firms from $4.50 to $2.85 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.17 to $1.35. This momentum is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor strengthening from $4.20 to $2.70 whilst support for the LNP easing from $1.18 to $1.40.

10. Gap between the major parties continues to close in this seat.

    This evening, Centrebet odds in Dawson shows support for Labor tightening from $2.70 to $2.40 whilst support for the LNP easing from $1.40 to $1.50.

11. The gap is still closing between the major parties in this electorate.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Dawson show that support for Labor firms from $2.85 to $2.35 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.35 to $1.60. The momentum is also mirrored in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor tightening from $2.40 to $2.25 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $1.50 to $1.60.

12. News source reports internal polling is 50-50

13. Support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Dawson shows support for Labor eases from $2.25 to $2.30 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.60 to $1.55.

14. I hear a high profile Lnp person in Mackay has quit the party over an internal brawl. An unrelated split on almost factional lines around the whitesundays may also have an impact. Mainstream media seem clueless about it.

15. Gee one would be bold to bet on this seat without understanding whom KAP is preferencing first. Another seat which could see one of the parties with a primary vote in the 30’s winning it.

    I can safely say, any polling held in this seat is useless without understanding the likely preference flows beforehand.

    Perhaps the polls are suggesting KAP will preference the LNP in this seat. I don’t know at this point.

16. Support for Rudd Labor according to Sports Bet.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Dawson shows support for Labor firms from $2.35 to $2.20 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.60 to $1.65.

17. Dawson profile at PB, http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/03/seats-of-the-week-swan-and-dawson/

    I didn’t know that Christensen had attended Wilder’s rallies when he visited Oz. I guess that plays well locally in some parts of this seat?

18. Country electorates like MPs who are characters & have a personality but they don’t like fools, is Christensen a bit towards fool end of spectrum? Remember Peter Black in NSW state parliament voters loved him for a time but then he went to far?

19. Momentum for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This evening, Sports Bet odds in Dawson shows support for Labor drifts from $2.20 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.65 to $1.18. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $2.30 to $3.20 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.55 to $1.30.

20. Lindsay Temple is the Family First candidate for Dawson. Family man and great bloke…

21. Hope George doesn’t let the door hit his ass on the way out:
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/secret-preference-deal-expected-to-be-announced-which-would-see-bob-katter8217s-australian-party-preferences-flow-to-alp/story-fnihsr9v-1226695607928

22. If that deal is made, labor hold capricornia and blair while dawson, herbert and flynn are all gains. Forde also if kap’s seq vote doesnt collapse. Hinkler a remote chance if palmer splits his ticket

23. what of the Palmer preferences?

24. I wouldn’t necessarily write off Herbert (based on the impact of Palmer preferences), but otherwise, I would agree with you QO.

25. I think if KAP does preference the ALP in all QLD seats, the ALP could pick up up to 8 seats.

26. It I was Katter I would be very careful preferencing the ALP. If he preferences the ALP then you may find that some of his support will scurry across to the LNP in both the House and Senate. The LNP can then paint Katter as an appendage of the ALP. The ALP brand is in a lot worse shape than the LNP’s in Queensland.

27. Queensland observer: “If that deal is made, labor hold capricornia and blair while dawson, herbert and flynn are all gains. Forde also if kap’s seq vote doesnt collapse. Hinkler a remote chance if palmer splits his ticket.”
    DB: “I think if KAP does preference the ALP in all QLD seats, the ALP could pick up up to 8 seats.”

    DB, 8 seats, really? Care to nominate the 8? QO has obviously listed 4 with Hinkler a possible.

28. To avoid being branded as a ALP funnel, if Katter is smart he will split his preferences and preference the LNP in some seats to try and nullify such attacks. We will have to wait and see what happens, though

29. Bobkat’s problem is that he’s well to the left of his supporters voted with ALP 50% of time in last parliament

30. No it wouldn’t be smart of the lnp to waste funds on campaigning against Katter. There in trouble now in Queensland and need to focus on holding seats rather then attacking a party whose supporters are cemented as opposed to supporters of major parties who are more inclined to be undecided

31. Guys, your argument just doesn’t make sense. Katter’s not going to be branded as “an appendage of the ALP” just for giving them preferences above the LNP. And why is it that none of you are talking about Katter being branded “an appendage of the LNP” if he gives preferences the other way?

    Katter was going to preference the LNP when Gillard was leader, but is preferencing the ALP under Rudd. The fact that he is preferencing ALP says that he considers Rudd better than Abbott, it’s that simple. And since when has Katter given two hoots what people think of him?

32. Yappo – I can’t speak for him but maybe he thinks Wright or Leichardt are also vulnerable or maybe he views the 3 or 4% of the vote Katter will get in Longman, Brisbane and Bonner as influential.

33. I get the feeling Katter would like to preference Labor/Rudd in all seats at this election but as Geoff Robinson said, many of his supporters have would have a distaste for the ALP’s policies e.g. Carbon Tax, Mining Tax, Same Sex Marriage. Interesting times ahead.

34. Cheers QO, yes I agree with Longman and Bonner. Brisbane seems fairly certain to go to the ALP regardless but extra prefs would help.

    Whilst Katter is socially conservative much of his economic and agricultural policies are almost socialist, obviously protectionist. On workplace relations he is much more aligned to the ALP. Given the industry & agricultural deregulation policies of the LNP – just look at previous LIB govt dairy deregulation which Katter vehemently opposed, “a farmer suicides every week in nth qld” etc – make it difficult for him to fully back the LNP. Then there is the long history with the Nats….

    Politically, going with Rudd in Qld seems to make sense given his electoral appeal as a Qlder. Perhaps, pref the ALP in Qld and split tickets in other states?

    What I do wonder is if anything apart from a pref deal, has Rudd offered Katter in return, should this come to fruition? Minister for the Far North……(Katter can then pursue his dream of a separate far north state)

35. Better news for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Dawson shows support for Labor tightens from $4.00 to $3.00 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.18 to $1.33.

36. It seems to me that Rudd could quite simply offer three things:

    1. An agricultural support package designed to offset the carbon tax cost for farmers, “means-tested” to prioritise small farmers rather than “Big Agriculture” (for lack of a better term).

    2. Strengthening the competition laws to better address the Coles/Woolworths issue (perhaps Katter’s biggest issue of all).

    3. The Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry ministry position, or at least some influence within that ministry – the current minister, Joel Fitzgibbon, may be in consideration to return to Defense (with Stephen Smith leaving), maybe? Alternatively, they might have some other legislation agreement.

37. Mike Kelly has been named replacement to Stephen smith if he hangs onto his seat

38. Then Defence Materiel… actually, I could see them taking Defence Science and Personnel off Warren Snowdon (who still would have both Veterans’ Affairs and Indigenous Health – and maybe also gain “Indigenous Employment and Economic Development” off Julie Collins, who currently has four portfolios) and merging them, so Fitzgibbon would have Defence Materiel, Science and Personnel – a natural combination.

    My point is, I could see Fitzgibbon moving to a different portfolio, leaving a space that Rudd could potentially offer to Katter. I think he’s in Agriculture because they needed someone to replace Joe Ludwig and didn’t want too much reshuffling beyond those made necessary by departures.

39. It wouldn’t be in katters interest to hold a portfolio. He’s a leader of a new party he needs to be able to openly criticise the government which would be limited if he takes a portfolio. But either way he’s unlikely to move fitzgibbon from that portfolio, it’s a country based portfolio and fitzgibbon is from the country electorate, they wouldn’t take a portfolio off Collins they need a minister from tassie and it would look bad and snowmen could potentially then call it quits and they would lose lingiari

40. Will be interesting to see how PUP now preferences. Let’s see. I expect he too will make a decision one way or the other.

    I’ve updated my numbers and changed KAP preferences from 50/50 to 70/30 to the ALP and I get a net loss of 2 seats. Dawson is one of the seats.

    Whilst a kick in the guts for the Liberals, from the QLD State election analysis, it appears up to 80% KAP voters were already disaffected Labor voters, so it’s more like a lost opportunity for the LNP.

    LNP down to 83 on my analysis.

41. Katter would only be restrained from openly criticising the government if that was put in the agreement that allowed him to become a minister. Note that a number of notable Coalition politicians have been fairly open about their criticisms when they disagreed with current Coalition policy, including Malcolm Turnbull (on the ETS and on gay marriage, for example) and Barnaby Joyce (on a number of issues). Also, sure, Fitzgibbon is in a country electorate, but so is Katter, so I’m not sure what your point is there.

    Meanwhile, Collins would still have three portfolios (Housing and Homelessness, Community Services, and the Status of Women – note that she has her own Parliamentary Secretary for Housing and Homelessness, too), so she wouldn’t lose her status as a minister (and likely not her position in Cabinet, either). And Snowdon’s set of portfolios would change, but not decrease – indeed, the only change would be a better streamlining of his portfolios. Also note that Snowdon backed Gillard, so I doubt he’d be expecting to be raised to the Cabinet any time soon – he’d probably be happy with a greater Indigenous portfolio, given that he’s a NT MP.

42. Surely DB you can’t say 2. This means a swag of seats in regional qld and outskirts of Brisbane are now more favourable for labor. Dawson, Herbert, Flynn, Forde, possible leichardt and Hinkler, Forde

43. Observer – if you assume 100% of preferences flowing from KAP to Labor you could make an argument for 6. If you are more considered, like I, and use a distribution of 70/30 to Labor, I get 2 on current polling. Sorry matey, but that’s the way it is.

    The reason I use 70/30 is because that is the usual split from the Greens to Labor v Coalition. But it could well be worse than this for Labor as many KAP types may want to preference National or LNP ahead of Labor. The problem in many of these seats is that the Coalition vote has fallen very little from the last election but the ALP primary vote is down quite a lot which is transferred to KAP.

44. Hate to burst your bubble but preference flow is actually 80/20. And I assure that 80% of KAP followers will preference the way his cards say so. And I’d also point out that polling always underestimates performance of minor parties so you could be very disappointed on election night

45. Observer – how do you work that out? LOL

46. Observer, it’s too early to predict how KAP supporters will preference – whether they’ll mostly choose their own preferences, or follow the HTV, is unclear.

    That said, DB makes a point to say that KAP votes seem to be coming from Labor… in which case, one could argue that KAP voter-chosen preferences would flow to Labor, since these people switched from Labor to KAP, rejecting LNP along the way.

    Unfortunately, as we have the “vote 1” option in Queensland elections, we don’t even know how KAP voters would have preferenced – they slightly favoured LNP amongst those who preferenced in Albert, but the majority didn’t preference.

47. Thank you Glen. You have more patience than me in explaining logic.

48. Because in the past 80% of voters generally always follow the how to vote card. KAP with an open ticket was 65/35. Past results= logic

49. I thought Flynn and forde were already gone so db makes sense by saying only two more due to the deal. Dawson and I guess Herbert is the other one. I also have brisbane as a labor gain but have lnp gaining moreton, petrie and one oxley or Rankin.

50. QO – don’t know about that – petrie and one oxley or Rankin. Not on my list of possibles.

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