LNP 1.1%
Incumbent MP
Teresa Gambaro, since 2010. Previously Member for Petrie 1996-2007.
Geography
Central Brisbane. Brisbane covers the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs north of the Brisbane River including Fortitude Valley, Paddington, Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Clayfield and Hendra.
History
Brisbane is an original federation electorate. It has been held by the ALP for most of its history interrupted by short periods of conservative MPs, up until the last election.
The seat was first won by Thomas Macdonald-Paterson, who joined the Protectionists when Parliament first sat. Macdonald-Paterson was not endorsed by the local Protectionists for the 1903 election, and the split in the protectionist vote gave the seat to the ALP’s Millice Culpin.
Culpin was himself defeated after one term by Justin Foxton of the Anti-Socialist Party (formerly the Free Traders). Foxton served as a minister from 1909 until his defeat at the 1910 election by the ALP’s William Finlayson.
Finlayson held the seat until 1919, when he was defeated by Donald Charles Cameron of the Nationalist Party. Cameron held the seat until 1931, when he lost the seat against the tide of conservative gains against the Scullin Government. Cameron returned to serve one term in the neighbouring seat of Lilley from 1934 to 1937.
The ALP held the seat continuously for the next fourty-four years, with only two MPs holding the seat from 1931 until 1975. George Lawson won the seat in 1931 and held it until 1961. He served as Minister for Transport from 1941 until the 1943 election. The seat was then held by Manfred Cross until his defeat by Liberal Peter Johnson in 1975. Johnson defeated Cross again in 1977 before Cross won the seat back in 1980.
Cross held the seat until his retirement in 1990, when the ALP chose Arch Bevis, who has held the seat ever since. While Brisbane has never been held by a large margin, it came closest to being lost to the Liberals in 1996, when Bevis’ margin was cut to 0.36%.
In 2010, the Liberal National Party ran former MP Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro had served as member for the marginal seat of Petrie from 1996 until she was defeated in 2007.
Alongside Bevis and Gambaro, the Greens ran former Democrats leader and former Senator Andrew Bartlett. Bevis suffered a 5.7% swing, and Gambaro won the seat. Bartlett polled 21.3%, the highest vote for the Greens in Queensland.
Candidates
- John Roles (Stable Population Party)
- Tony Rose (Secular Party)
- Teresa Gambaro (Liberal National)
- Connie Cicchini (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Veronica Ford (Palmer United Party)
- Rachael Jacobs (Greens)
- Sharyn Joyner (Family First)
- Fiona McNamara (Labor)
Assessment
Brisbane is not the typical Liberal seat – it includes progressive inner-city areas, but unlike in Sydney and Melbourne these areas aren’t sufficiently concentrated to create a straight Labor-Greens contest.
The seat is a centre of Greens support in Queensland and will be a focus of the Greens campaign. The slim two-party margin is only achieved thanks to Greens preferences to the ALP – Labor falls far behind the LNP on primary votes. If Labor is to win they will need to win back some Greens votes and ensure they keep a high flow of preferences.
Due to the special nature of this seat, it is considered one of the most likely Labor gains at this election.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Teresa Gambaro | LNP | 37,191 | 45.89 | +4.08 |
| Arch Bevis | ALP | 24,623 | 30.38 | -13.22 |
| Andrew Bartlett | GRN | 17,244 | 21.28 | +10.12 |
| Mark White | FF | 1,274 | 1.57 | +0.44 |
| Ewan Saunders | SA | 717 | 0.88 | +0.36 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Teresa Gambaro | LNP | 41,440 | 51.13 | +5.73 |
| Arch Bevis | ALP | 39,609 | 48.87 | -5.73 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- Central – Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Spring Hill, Windsor.
- North East – Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra, Stafford
- West – Alderley, Ashgrove, Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Paddington, Red Hill
The LNP only won a majority in the north east, with a 58.6% majority. The ALP won a majority of 52% in the other two parts of the seat. The Greens vote polled around 23-24% in the centre and the west, and under 16% in the north east.
| Voter group | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 23.03 | 47.77 | 25,240 | 31.14 |
| North East | 15.86 | 58.58 | 18,820 | 23.22 |
| Central | 24.43 | 47.75 | 15,955 | 19.69 |
| Other votes | 21.62 | 51.06 | 21,034 | 25.95 |
If Gambaro survives it will be because the cheapest private school in Australia – Ascot State School – comes through with another 75%+ 2PP.
The Clayfield pocket had to go somewhere, and it was either going to be with Swan or Bevis. If that area had stayed in Lilley, Swan would have probably lost his seat in 2010.
I don’t think the LNP only won because of Ascot State School. It was also Labor’s failure to win any large booth by a substantial margin (greater than 55% 2PP).
In addition to that, for Labor to win back the seat, they need to really hit the largest booth in the seat (Wilston State School) and win that.
For the LNP to hold it, they need to get a greater proportion of Greens preferences (Which they did in 2010, and they tend to do in inner-city areas), and try to win some more support in the northwestern booths around Ashgrove (which they won’t, thanks to Campbell Newman).
I was surprised when Gambaro won this seat last time.
To my knowledge, Gambaro is aligned with the conservative Santoro faction of the QLD Liberals, and surely a conservative in a seat like Brisbane should have been no chance there, even with its narrow margin and with Queenslanders white hot over the ousting of their Kevvie.
I might’ve said that she’d hold the seat, if Abbott is as popular with Queenslanders as some believe, but the Newman Government’s job cuts make me think again.
Fiona McNamara is the ALP Candidate for this in 2013
I originally expected Labor to pick this up notwithstanding a sophomore surge to Gambaro. But the Greens will bleed votes here to Labor and Labor will probably bleed some votes to the Liberals. Tough to call but Gambaro is a good MP and she might just get over the line.
If Labor was going to pick up a seat in the country with a whitewash that is now becoming the expectation, this would have to be one of the favourites.
The resurgence in support for Newman’s Government won’t hurt her cause either.
This is one of the two seats I think that Labor has a chance at winning the other one being Aston in Victoria. It is one of the wealthier electorate were the swing to the liberals was highest and the ALP support is very unlikely to fall. The Greens vote seems soft since it includes protest voters as well as left-wing ones. If Teresa Gambaro is to be elected she needs to attract those protest voters some of whom used to vote for the Democrats. Be this as it mayTeresa has three things going for her. One whatever people may say about her she is an excellent campaigner who held Petrie for 9 years until the Rudd Slide washed her away in 2007. Petrie is not a safe LNP electorate by any stretch of the imagination. One whatever people may say about her she is an excellent campaigner two she is likely to get a sophomore surge even in an electorate which leans towards Labor, just look at Morley. Three I really have a hard time seeing Liberal voters changing their vote in 2013. It may still fall to Labor, but only if the Liberals get blinded by the amount of Labor seats in play and overlook their defenses. I expect it to be taken by Labor in 2016, but it would require a huge effort on their part in 2013.
Probably a high number of rail users in this seat (including myself). Will the Coalition’s decision to not back the Cross River Rail project have an impact?
I struggle to see Brisbane switching now, but if the Coalition loses an urban or suburban seat this will be the one.
Most likely Coalition loses are in regional areas though where Katter comes into play.
There is also the issue of the Katter and Palmer parties. If they bleed the nuttier edge of the conservative vote by a couple of percent each, and there is no further swing from Labor, then it’s too close to call. If there’s a swing to Labor, they will win it. I do recall several people in the queue where I voted wearing Kevin 07 t-shirts at the 2010 election. There really was a significant backlash from Labor voters at the time.
Now that Rudd is leader this seat is in play. Gambarro will be tough to beat because this is the seat she should have always had but Rudd is very popular in this area, that margin is small and Qld will be by far his strongest state at the election. If he can’t pick this up, he won’t pick up any Qld seats.
Seems likely that the labor vote will increase, but I suspect much of this will come from the greens, who don’t have as prominent candidate as last time around.
“Now that Rudd is leader this seat is in play”. Is this truly a testable statement?
PJ
Well done. Everyone seems to have forgotten that Andrew Murray was the Greens candidate last time round. His preferences were crucial in making this a contest. Gambaro will get a sophomore surge. That is a lot to get past. This is not the seat it once was since the re-distribution.
The Katter and Palmer thing is interesting. If we look at the State election, it was Labor voters who bled to KAP, not the Liberals. Some Libs will move to PUP, but he is copping a pretty tough time in the media and his support levels are falling. PUP won’t preference Labor under any circumstances. KAP will be more choosy, but I think he will probably go about 50/50.
If an LNP urban seat falls you would think this one, but I take DB and winediamond’s points.
winediamond, it’s Bartlett, not Murray. Murray was from SA, plus he was more dry than most Democrats.
Meant WA. Whoops.
Morgieb
Quite right – Bartlett.
“Seems likely that the labor vote will increase, but I suspect much of this will come from the greens, who don’t have as prominent candidate as last time around.”
That could be of assistance to Labor, Labor/Greens combined got over 51% of the vote in 2010, but significant Green vote leaked to the Libs.
Bartlett was involved, however, he was not necessarily taken seriously.
Labor lost this seat in 2010 because of Qld punishing Labor for their knifing of Rudd. Rudd is very well liked in this part of Brisbane. Why could they not pick this up? Not saying they will but there’s suggestions there will be a seat, maybe 2 in Qld Labor will now pick up, can anyone think of a more likely one than this? I can’t.
I can think of two more likely – Flynn and Herbert
DB
The point you make about KAP, & PUP voters is correct. Why is there this view that they will only bleed votes from the LNP ???.
The argument about where KAP voters came from is pointless. 1 view is they are ALP voters unable to vote for them again, the other is that ALP voters flocked in drives to the LNP and that some LNP voters ditched to KAP. There is no way of knowing except asking them.
I expect with Rudd leading, this should be picked up along with other seats but this won’t be easy to win because it didn’t swing that much to the ALP in 07. The ALP should win this but it would be a mistake to assume they will win easy, the ALP will have to campaign hard but from what I’ve seen they are, so ALP gain
Herbert really? They couldn’t even win that in 07 at the height of Rudd’s popularity.
While I don’t agree that Herbert is more likely to go than Brisbane, I can see how Herbert could fall especially without Peter Lindsay but will have to wait and see how polling goes in regional QLD
Look at the KAP vote in the Townsville area at the state election. Whoever runs second on first preference out of KAP and ALP should win if the other preferences them.
Don’t assume that because someone voted a certain way at the state election it will happen federally. One Nation won a number of seats at the 98 state election but didn’t win any federally in 98.
Q O
That is what i’m talking about
Surge for Rudd Labor according to the latest Centrebet odds.
This morning Centrebet odds in Brisbane show the gap is closing between the major parties with support for Labor firming to $2.75 whilst support for the LNP easing to $1.35.
Further surge in support for Rudd Labor in this seat.
According to the latest Sports Bet odds in Brisbane support for Labor from $4.00 to $3.00 whilst support for the LNP remains steady at $1.20.
Surge continues for Rudd Labor with the gap closing between the major parties in this electorate.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Brisbane show support for Labor strengthening from $3.00 to $2.10 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $1.20 to $1.65. This momentum is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor firming from $2.90 to $2.05 whilst support for the LNP easing from $1.35 to $1.68.
Dead heat between the major parties in this seat.
This evening, Centrebet odds in Brisbane show support for Labor tightening from $2.05 to $1.85 whilst support for the LNP easing from $1.68 to $1.85.
Interesting that this seat doesn’t seem to have swung as much toward Labor as other seats have in the betting markets.
I can see Gambaro holding Brisbane – just. But it’ll be very difficult for her.
Labor hits the lead according to Sports Bet.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Brisbane show that support for Labor firms from $2.10 to $1.75 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.65 to $1.95.
Labor also hits the lead according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Brisbane shows support for Labor tightens from $1.85 to $1.80 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.85 to $1.90.
Labor consolidates its lead according to Centrebet.
This morning, Centrebet odds in Brisbane shows support for Labor firms from $1.80 to $1.72 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.90 to $2.00.
internal polling under Gillard had this seat 53/47 to the LNP, with the surge in labor support in QLD, will be interesting to see the swing here
According to KB’s latest analysis, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/ the ALP is now ahead in all betting markets. Wonder if that reflects actual seat polling?
Perhaps it does as the LNP seem to have basically written off Brisbane;
A senior LNP strategist said the campaign was now about defending the Coalition’s more marginal seats
“It has turned into a defensive campaign, from being on the offensive and taking a swag of seats,” the LNP strategist said. “Brisbane, where the Newman factor over cuts to the public service is focused and Labor is spending big, is in real trouble for us. And Bonner, which neighbours Rudd’s electorate, and Forde are going to be very hard, if not impossible, to hold.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/marginals-not-part-of-pms-swing/story-fn9qr68y-1226689794739
Encouraging news for the LNP according to Centrebet.
This evening, Centrebet odds in Brisbane shows support for Labor eases from $1.72 to $1.75 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.00 to $1.95.
Setback for the LNP according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Brisbane shows that support for Labor firms from $1.75 to $1.65 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.95 to $2.15.
Encouragement for the Coalition according to Centrebet.
This evening, Centrebet odds in Brisbane shows support for Labor eases from $1.65 to $1.75 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.15 to $2.00.
Coalition hits the lead according to the betting sites.
Currently Centrebet and Sports Bet odds in Brisbane shows support for Labor drifts from $1.75 to $2.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.00 to $1.75.
Coalition extends its lead according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Brisbane shows support for Labor eases from $2.00 to $2.10 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.75 to $1.67.
Tattsbet has ALP $1.65, LNP $2.15 so there’s a wee hedge opportunity there.
As a Liberal, I love arbitrage…….
I’ll get on it and make myself some quick dough here.
More Momemtum for the Coalition according to the betting sites.
This morning, Sports Bet odds in Brisbane shows support for Labor drifts from $2.10 to $2.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.67 to $1.40. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $2.00 to $2.20 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.75 to $1.60.
JWS poll showing the LNP ahead 54/46 on primaries of 50% for the LNP and 36% for the ALP. Gambaro appears safe and momentum in this seat has been heading to the Coalition in the last 2 weeks.
Coalition also extends its lead according to Centrebet.
Currently, Centrebet odds in Brisbane shows support for Labor drifts from $2.20 to $2.30 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.60 to $1.55.