Bonner – Australia 2013

LNP 2.8%

Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.

History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.

At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.

A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party.

Candidates

Assessment
After three terms, Bonner has never returned the sitting member for a second term. Vasta has now run for the seat three elections in a row and should have a solid personal vote, but the seat is vulnerable to a swing back to Labor.

If Kevin Rudd’s return to the Prime Ministership sees a swing back to Labor in Queensland, this seat would be likely to fall.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ross Vasta LNP 38,105 46.38 +4.47
Kerry Rea ALP 29,639 36.07 -12.73
Darryl Rosin GRN 9,188 11.18 +6.28
Carolyn Ferrando FF 2,318 2.82 +0.89
Greg Sowden IND 1,984 2.41 +2.41
Utz Wellner DLP 931 1.13 +1.13

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ross Vasta LNP 43,400 52.82 +7.35
Kerry Rea ALP 38,765 47.18 -7.35
Polling booths in Bonner at the 2010 federal election. Mount Gravatt in green, Central in blue, Wynnum-Manly in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: Mount Gravatt in the south, Wynnum-Manly in the north, and a group covering booths in the Central part of the seat.

The LNP won a 56.9% majority in the centre and 54.5% in Mount Gravatt. The ALP won 54.2% in Wynnum-Manly.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Mount Gravatt 11.67 54.45 23,206 28.24
Wynnum-Manly 11.92 45.83 20,298 24.70
Central 9.61 56.85 19,102 23.25
Other votes 11.37 54.22 19,559 23.80
Two-party-preferred votes in Bonner at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Bonner at the 2010 federal election.

38 COMMENTS

  1. There’s something weird going on with the Greens votes in that last map. I doubt suburban Brisbane has any polling booth where the Greens get 46% on primaries. 😉

  2. Argh, you are right. Stuffed up the formula – all those percentages are percentage of the LNP vote, not the total vote.

    Will fix it later today, thanks for spotting the error. Please let me know if you see any other errors.

  4. Vasta will be returned comfortably. In 2004 the LNP held on the federal seat in this area, and only just. Fast forward to 2013 and the LNP hold all but one of the local council wards in the seat and every state electorate. The entire Bonner area sans Wynnum has been trending blue for 2 decades now and it’s not about to stop.

    The biggest change is the growth in subdivison around Wakerley/Manly West as thousands of McMansions have poppped up in much the same way as they did in Caridale through early 1990s. This area exploded throughout the late 2000s with white collar professionals and young families taking up residence.

    They vote at the Gumdale booth, which now rivals Belmont in terms of size and Liberal % of the vote. With these two booths pinned down by the respective State MP’s and Councillors, any swing back in Wynnum due to the hospital closure will be easily countered. Vasta need only make sure his job is done in Mansfield/Wishart area and he will be home and hosed.

    The Labor candidate is virtually unknown except in the Wynum area, in any case.

    I expect this seat to be 10%+ for the LNP after the election.

  5. I can’t see the LNP losing this one. Dirk is right in that it is a seat becoming more affluent and will probably tend to vote more LNP than ALP in the future. Might fall to Labor in 2016 however.

  7. The Australian paper named it among seven seats the ALP is targeting – Flynn, Forde, Brisbane, Longman, Herbert, Dawson and Bonner.

  8. Dirk Diggler
    The Gumdale booth appears as a Labor booth ??. Still this seat looks a lot like Reid (- Auburn) , or Banks in terms of demographic change. As you point out there seems to be a prevailing long term trend to the LNP. It looks like Labor would need to overcome an organic swing of about 2% against them already, as well as the 2.7% required.

  9. Gap between the major parties is closing in this seat.

    This evening, Centrebet odds in Bonner show support for Labor firming from $4.50 to $2.70 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $1.16 to $1.40.

  10. Gap continues to close between the major parties in this seat.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Bonner show that support for Labor tightens from $3.55 to $2.65 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.25 to $1.42.

  11. Support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor drifts from $2.70 to $2.90 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.40 to $1.35.

  12. More support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This morning, Centrebet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor drifts from $2.90 to $3.20 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.35 to $1.30.

  13. Even with Rudd as leader, I have Bonner as an LNP hold. I can point to five seats which I think Labor will gain. Namely Brisbane, Forde, Flynn, Dawson and Herbert. I think Bonner and Longman will go against the trend and swing to the LNP. I think Bowman will swing strongly to Labor this time.

  15. There is a big discrepancy in the betting here. I think Labor are a better chance than betting suggests. Tend to think the Liberals can hold this.

  16. LNP seem to think that Booner is going to be difficult to hold;
    A senior LNP strategist said the campaign was now about defending the Coalition’s more marginal seats amid hopes of snagging at least two Labor-held seats, Moreton (1.2 per cent) and Petrie (2.6 per cent), as well as the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, held by LNP defector Peter Slipper.

    “It has turned into a defensive campaign, from being on the offensive and taking a swag of seats,” the LNP strategist said. “Brisbane, where the Newman factor over cuts to the public service is focused and Labor is spending big, is in real trouble for us. And Bonner, which neighbours Rudd’s electorate, and Forde are going to be very hard, if not impossible, to hold.”
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/marginals-not-part-of-pms-swing/story-fn9qr68y-1226689794739

  17. Lurch hasn’t been active for a few days, so I figured I’d give most recent figures here.

    Centrebet has LNP at $1.35 (from $1.30) and Labor at $2.90 (from $3.20), reversing the shift seen a week ago.

    Sportsbet has LNP at $1.38 (from $1.35) and Labor at $2.80 (from $2.90)

  18. Better news for Labor according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor tightens from $2.80 to $2.70 whilst support for the LNP remains steady at $1.38. Currently Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor firms from $2.90 to $2.70 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.35 to $1.40.

  21. More encouragement for Labor according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor firms from $2.70 to $2.50 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.40 to $1.47.

  22. Momentum for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This evening, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor eases from $2.70 to $4.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.38 to $1.15. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $2.50 to $3.20 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.47 to $1.30.

  23. The Family First candidate for Bonner is Jeff Penny, formerly Chairman and State Director of the Party. With a background in business, Jeff currently Chairs a Charity that does work in suicide prevention.

  24. Encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor tightens from $4.50 to $3.00 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.15 to $1.33.

  25. This is one of Labor’s better chances but constitutents intentions still shows Coalition should be slight favourites.

  26. More Momentum for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor drifts from $3.00 to $3.25 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.33 to $1.25.
    .

  27. Slight encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor tightens from $3.25 to $3.00 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.22 to $1.33.

  28. More support for the Coaliton according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor drifts from $3.20 to $3.40 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.30 to $1.28.

  29. How things have changed!

    Only 3 weeks ago a senior LIB strategist was quoted in the Oz, “And Bonner, which neighbours Rudd’s electorate, and Forde are going to be very hard, if not impossible, to hold.”

  30. Encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor tightens from $3.00 to $2.80 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.33 to $1.38.

  31. I’m surprised due to Bonner having changed hands in 2007 and 2010, that there has been no stand alone public polling for this electorate. I know it was included in Newspoll’s LNP Qld marginals survey. I would say that since it borders Griffith and Forde, who have had swings to the LNP in stand alone polling, it maybe swinging to the LNP here as well.

  32. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor slips from $2.80 to $3.25 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.38 to $1.30.

  33. More momentum for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor drifts from $3.25 to $3.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.30 to $1.25.

  34. Surge of support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor eases from $3.40 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.28 to $1.20.

  35. Further surge of support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor crashes from $3.50 to $5.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.25 to $1.15.

  36. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor slips from $5.00 to $5.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.15 to $1.13. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $4.00 to $5.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.20 to $1.14.

  37. Gap is widening between the major parties according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Bonner shows support for Labor eases from $5.00 to $6.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.14 to $1.08.

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