Blaxland – Australia 2013

ALP 12.2%

Incumbent MP
Jason Clare, since 2007.

Geography
South-western Sydney. Blaxland covers large parts of the City of Bankstown. A majority of the seat lies in Bankstown council area, along with small parts of Fairfield, Holroyd, Parramatta and Auburn council areas. It covers the centre of Bankstown and the suburbs of Condell Park, Yagoona, Georges Hall, Bass Hill, Birrong, Chester Hill, Villawood, Carramar, Guildford, Yennora, Regents Park and parts of Fairfield and Granville.

Redistribution
Blaxland changed substantially around its fringes. It lost Cabramatta to Fowler and Greenacre and Chullora to Watson. In exchange Blaxland expanded to the south and north, gaining more of Bankstown council area from Banks and expanding into Guildford and South Granville, gaining territory from Reid.

History
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1949.

Blaxland was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate James Harrison. Harrison defeated former NSW Labor premier Jack Lang, who had won the seat of Reid as an independent in 1946.

Harrison held Blaxland as a Labor backbencher for twenty years, retiring in 1969. He was succeeded by 25-year-old Paul Keating. Keating quickly rose through the ranks of the ALP, joining Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1975. Keating went on to serve as Treasurer in the Hawke government and after a period of turmoil was elected Labor leader in 1991, becoming Prime Minister.

Keating was re-elected as Prime Minister at the 1993 election, but lost the 1996 election. Following his defeat he resigned as Member for Blaxland.

The ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Michael Hatton. Hatton held the seat for the entirety of the Howard government, but was challenged for preselection in 2007 to Jason Clare, a former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who had the support of the NSW Labor Party executive, and Clare won the seat at the 2007 election. Clare won re-election in 2010.

Candidates

  • Nafez Taleb (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Anthony Khouri (Liberal)
  • Zali Burrows (Palmer United Party)
  • Jason Clare (Labor)
  • Juliat Nasr (Christian Democratic Party)
  • John Ky (Greens)
  • Boutros Zalloua (Democratic Labour Party)

Assessment
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jason Clare ALP 37,641 50.98 -8.78
Mark Majewski LIB 24,583 33.30 +7.11
Malikeh Michels GRN 4,625 6.26 +0.69
Abdul Charaf IND 2,131 2.89 +2.89
Richard Phillips SEP 2,058 2.79 +2.79
Bob Vinnicombe ON 1,351 1.83 +0.74
David Ball IND 1,153 1.56 +1.56
Ronald Poulsen IND 288 0.39 +0.39

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jason Clare ALP 45,948 62.23 -4.42
Mark Majewski LIB 27,882 37.77 +4.42
Polling places in Blaxland at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Blaxland at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south:

  • Central – Chester Hill, Villawood.
  • North – Auburn, Berala, Granville, Guildford.
  • South – Bankstown, Bass Hill, Condell Park, Yagoona.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, varying from 60.3% in the north to 65.4% in the centre.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 5.69 61.73 24,812 33.61
North 6.01 60.26 17,459 23.65
Central 6.17 65.36 16,841 22.81
Other votes 7.65 61.86 14,718 19.93
Two-party-preferred votes in Blaxland at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Blaxland at the 2010 federal election.

74 COMMENTS

  1. Anthony Khouri has been preselected for the Liberal Party in Blaxland. This is one seat in Western Sydney which the Labor Party will pour endless resources to protect. Minister Clare has to be seen as a future Labor leader.

  2. Are Labor really worried about losing this seat electionlova? Surely Blaxland can’t fall, even on 2011 state figures, it would still be Labor.

  3. I agree, it won’t fall, but considering the swings likely to occur in Western Sydney against Labor, they would pour their resources into the seats they need to hold to form a credible opposition. I consider Blaxland, Watson, McMahon and Chifley to be the seats of future Labor leaders/Minister’s. If they lose these they will really struggle in opposition. I predict Labor have all but written off their chances in Lindsay, Greenway, Parramatta, Reid and possibly Werriwa and are aiming at protecting their seats with a 7% + margin.

  4. electionlova – can’t see Labor pouring a cent into this. If they lose this, they lose just about every single seat in NSW. Blaxland (Keating’s old seat) is one of NSW’s safest, even with this Government. Banks, which is adjacent, will most likely be lost however.

  5. electionlova – also I reckon Labor will probably lose both Werriwa and McMahon this time as they are so far behind from what I have seen. Agree with the ones written off too, unless of course, something changes greatly. I reckon Labor can hold Watson and will win Blaxland and Chifley no matter what. I don’t write off Kingsford Smith for Labor either.

    Regardless of your politics, that was probably one of the best speeches in reply to a budget politically we will ever witness in our lifetime. The swinging voters will really like the Prime Ministerial nature of it. Hewson, who I know, (who is no Abbott lover) was absolutely right on ABC tonight. Well done John. Good call.

  6. DB

    I agree about the speech. Last year’s was the first time Abbott really looked prime ministerial to me, and he topped it this year. As a person who listens to a lot of parliamentary speeches (from various places), I was a bit distracted by his addressing the people rather than the Speaker, but I doubt anyone else noticed. Relatedly, please keep an eye out for us on any post-Budget polling in Lilley.

  7. Labor won’t lose Blaxland, Watson, Chifley and Fowler most likely.

    All other seats are in danger though, hower I reckon on state results it’s hard to see Kingsford-Smith or Werriwa falling.

    Parramatta, Reid, Banks, Greenway and Lindsay are all gone, and McMahon and Barton are in big danger.

    It’s hard to see 55-45, but it will be hurt for the ALP.

  8. Yesterday, I was in Bankstown on my way out to the Royal Flying Doctor Open Day. Whilst I was waiting around I noticed that there were about 4 posters for Jason Clare, but about 15 posters for the Liberals and that was a conservative estimate. Labor might hold Blaxland, but its clear when the Liberals have 3 – 4 more posters for every Jason Clare, its clear that Labor are in trouble.

  9. I find it interesting that Jason Clare is campaigning with dark blue shirts with his name in big bold letters and a tiny Labor logo. I must have missed the memo when Labor chose blue as their election colour of choice.

  10. Its not uncommon to use colours other then red especially in an area that is in NRL territory with two team Eels and Bulldogs with both teams having blue as their colours so its a colour that people probably respond to as stupid as it sounds but using a local colour like NRL colours help make the campaign more local which is probably what Jason needs

  11. Every election I hear the same thing EL. I’m yet to find anyone who is misled by the colour of a shirt, nor not realise which party their MP is in when they enter the booth and see the party name next to the candidate name. In any case, posing as a Lib in an electorate like Blaxland would be counterproductive, even in the current climate.

    I’ve handed out in a few different coloured shirts, in good times and bad. Doesn’t mean a thing.

  16. Very interesting lawyer Zali Burrows standing for the seat. She was in the media a bit for being outspoken against ASADA contravening players human rights.

  17. Jason Clare the Minister of Justice. It will be the electorates call as to whether he has done justice. Interested as to what Ms Burrows has to say.

  18. I think there will be a back-lash against Jason Clare, especially considering his attack on Rugby League in the wake of the ASADA investigations, where they have come up with virtually duck-egg. This is Bulldogs Territory and with Des Hasler (formally of Manly and being one of the people originally implicated in the investigations) die-hard Bulldogs fans will see this as treachery from Clare. Swing will be double-figures but this will be a coin-flip

  20. Jason Clare got booted by Rudd from his minister positions so is Clare still the Labor candidate or has he been replaced?

  22. JVBeed – what are you talking about? Jason Clare is still Minister for Justice and Minister for Home Affairs. His portfolio didn’t change at all when Rudd regained the leadership.

  24. “Dumped” is a poor choice of words, JVBeed. Rudd moved Clare back to the Outer Ministry, he had only been in Cabinet from March until June, and was raised mostly because of the reshuffle caused by a number of people choosing to leave the ministry – Gillard mostly gave the portfolios to existing ministers, so Cabinet would otherwise have been smaller. Gary Gray similarly got a bump.

    Jason Clare’s portfolios have, generally, been Outer Ministry portfolios. Rudd simply restored the normal arrangement.

  25. You must be in the labor party Glen? Interesting the workings. Perhaps time for fresh blood or change. Looking forward to see the candidates when writs issued, heard theres some egyptian guy who is touting he’s got half the electorate in the bag.

  26. Anthony Khouri contrasts favourably with Jason Clare . . . hugely so.

    The Liberal candidate for Blaxland is respectful, intelligent and considered.

    Anthony Khouri has no need to mindlessly prove himself with scripted responses and televised sideshows.

    He’s committed to his community, he’s confident in his ability and he will make a significant difference to an area of Sydney that has, at best, been used and abused by its ALP representatives.

    In Jason Clare’s mind, Blaxland is a mere stepping stone.

  27. Agree Burko, Clare using us as a stepping stone when he’s done bugger all for us. I’m looking at what the candidates have done for the electorate when they weren’t on the payroll. Zali seems the most active for what shes done free. Heard nothing of the Greens guy, a vote for Greens is a vote for Labor and bugger that!

  28. JVBeed – not at all in the Labor party. Indeed, I voted Greens in 2010 in House and Senate, and if Gillard had remained Labor leader and the Coalition had switched to Turnbull, I’d have voted Liberal in this one, at least in the House (if it remained Gillard vs Abbott, I’d have voted Greens again). I tend towards the “left”, but am not rusted on to any party in any way.

    I’m just interested in politics in general, and have a tendency to give benefit of the doubt. Jason Clare was raised to “Ministry” without any change in his portfolio. I’m assuming that he was simply raised to make up numbers, because Gillard had done a bit of consolidating of portfolios at the time.

  30. Reachtel poll shows Labor ahead 52/48 here, but a 10% swing against Clare. This would bring a host of other Sydney seats into play.

  31. I’m wondering about the automated polling in the heavily immigrant seats. Surely people with poor English are much less likely to respond. Won’t that skew the results if there are differences in the way people from different backgrounds vote? Would be hard for them to weight that as they won’t know what to allow for (i.e. the current support of parties by place of birth)

  34. Khouri’s campaign is building momentum. He just might steamroll Clare. I hope the Libs can take Blaxland – Khouri is a good man. Also it would be a fitting payback for Bennelong in 2007.

  35. The Liberals won’t win Blaxland.

    This area remained ALP at the NSW election….if it didn’t go Liberal then it never will.

  36. Burko, I don’t think there is any momentum, he’s not active at all and I don’t know any volunteers he has, the only thing he has is posters which is because it was in play during the Gillard Prime ministership. At of all the seats that resources were poured out of, Blaxland is probably the one that still has a relatively active campaign base. Khouri really doesn’t strike me as a federal MP, maybe a councillor but not a federal MP and I think that Clare has worked well for a minister in this electorate doing morning train stations, shopping centres etc so I think even DB would have to call this an ALP hold.

    As for the Bennelong comment, its exactly why you lost it in the first place. The people of Bennelong just had enough of being put second and I don’t think it would be the same. Howard held it for over 30 years, Clare has held his for 6 years, howard was the PM, Clare isn’t even a cabinet minister.

  37. Observer – yes, definite Labor hold.

    Hang on, I can’t say that…..just kidding Observer….

    Clare will win this.

  39. observer, one thing working the election and another thing doing ACTUAL work during his term. Im not impressed if Clare catches the train.

  40. Those are just hack comments, Observer. Howard lost due to demographic change making the seat marginal. He was respected as a good local member even by people who voted against – the swing was exactly the same as the national swing.

  41. I think everyone says they are sick of both parties but nothing happens. I think maybe at tops Clare will be forced to preferences but should be able to hold on. Unfortunately for the liberals theres no state labor governemnt and no julia. Theres also no independents running and KAP will probably preference labor. This seat should be retained Clare has delivered and this is the area libs aren’t doing good things in to please the key electorates around Blaxland. I didn’t say he catches trains but he informs people unlike Khouri which I don’t blame, its a labor area.

  43. I got a balloon and a recycle bag from Clare on Saturday outside Centro. That is the most labor has done for me. Wondering if my tax dollars paid for that.

  45. BTW on the “Hack comment” your claiming AC, what I would say is that he is the leader, why not accomodate him in a safer seat? The Bennelong Howard lost was lost is now liberal. The bennelong howard lost in 07 was similar to the one in 01 which he won? If he was a good lcal member he would have won, if he was respected then the people would say he’s probably going to lose government but he doesn’t deserve to lose his seat. Thats not what people thought and therefore they booted him from his seat. Not every swing has to be uniform and generally leaders seats aren’t uniform.

  47. Observer – this election or the next one could be the election that shakes things up – with the rise of things like Facebook, the message is being spread more efficiently that you aren’t wasting your vote by voting for a minor party, that you get to choose your own preferences. Many people vote for Labor or Liberal because they think they’ll otherwise waste their vote, and Labor and the Libs often try to reinforce that misunderstanding.

  49. Glen
    I truly hope you are right about people shifting to vote for minor parties, because of modern media, & such. When the minor party vote rises the major pack shit( & rightly so!!!). Nothing would please me more.

  50. checking betting odds and it has jason at 1, anthony at 2, zali at 3 and others last. I think it will end up tight depending on preferences.

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