Blair – Australia 2013

1. Oh boy, lots of horrible choices. I might even have to vote family First. Yuck.

2. Brian, consider. FF are far inferior to options such as the Greens or even the major parties. But if you have such an aversion to your options, boycott your vote. Just don’t vote for FF.

3. Surge for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

   This morning, Sports Bet odds in Blair shows support for Labor remains steady at $1.35 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.90 to $2.75. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.30 to $1.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $3.20 to $2.25.

4. Harding has no idea, she has no management experience, very little experience at all. She failed out of the army, failed at everything she does! Riding on the coat tails of real service people. What a joke she is…

5. Tom you make me laugh. How can you compare an ex union hack that would not be able to balance the budget of a chook raffle against someone with worlds of experience. Hmm –
   I have one chook to raffle, it cost me 5 dollars. If I sell 5 tickets at 20 cents each that should cover me. 20 x 5 is 100 isn’t it, no its just 90 cents, I mean $1. Hang on, that’s not enough money, lets just tax the chook grower the other 4 bucks and drive up the cost of chooks for everyone. But I still haven’t made a profit have I. That doesn’t matter the people can pay for the mismanagement.

   Opps, Sorry, I just leaked the Neumann Labor party policy on Higher educational maths and arithmetic as well as their financial credentials. Sorry all

6. Another surge for the Coaltion according to Sports Bet.

   Currently, Sports Bet odds in Blair shows support for Labor drifts from $1.35 to $1.67 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.75 to $2.10.

   DB, have you seen any recent polling to indicate that this seat is too close too call?

7. Encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

   Currently, Sports Bet odds in Blair shows support for Labor tightens from $1.67 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.10 to $2.30.

8. The Election is getting closer, Every one I have spoken to are in decisive of who they will vote for and I can’t blame them to be honest. The last few years Australia has experienced some phenomenal things within politics and its time we change that regardless if I’m elected or if its another (preferably minor party) elected. It will be tough however the voters need to think of how they would like this electorate. Don’t just hope for a better future vote for one we all have a choice on who we wold like representing our needs. Its going to be a tough choice for the voters of Blair.

   Regards,
   Shannon Deguara
   0497230364

9. Setback for Labor according to Sports Bet.

   Currently, Sports Bet odds in Blair shows support for Labor slips from $1.55 to $1.67 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.30 to $2.10.

10. This looks like a bit of a bolter for the Coalition.

11. If this one is a bolter then Oxley is a bolter too.

12. I’m not counting this as an LNP gain yet. Too many KAP voters and do we know where they’ll direct preferences?

    To me, either Oxley or Griffith is looking more likely for the LNP.

13. The problem I have with seats like this, Oxley and Griffith falling with the Coalition keeping all their seats in Queensland is that most polls are saying 53/47 (or thereabouts) here. Somebody’s wrong, and I can’t see the ground Labor are losing in their seats and Coalition marginals being made up in safe Coalition seats (though I suppose it’s plausible).

    FTR I’m not saying the polls are wrong, but they are most likely conflicting.

14. I agree morgieb. The various polling methodologies have been somewhat conflicted this election (as has been discussed on length on this site).

    My assessment of these seats is more just from the vibe I’m getting on the ground. I think the LNP will retain Brisbane, but with minimal if any swing to it (maybe even a small swing against). Moreton is a definite gain. Bonner is a retain, as is Forde. I think the ALP will retain Blair, Lilley, Rankin and Capricornia, and it’s Griffith, Herbert, Oxley and Petrie which are in the balance.

15. It won’t be long before Blair becomes a bellwhether but I don’t think this will go at this election. Ipswich will be more pro labor then last time which is killing off the prospect of an LNP gain here

16. Haven’t heard much detail from the LNP candidate, just waving on the side of the road like the pizza ppl do, at least I see the ALP guy Shayne Neumann a lot, talking to people and at all these forum things. I’d like to hear more about the future, don’t mind paying taxes if its for a good reason, not just to promise ppl so they’ll vote for them

17. Galaxy makes it 50-50 here.

18. This seat is just not going to fall to the LNP in my opinion, and my cash is riding on that opinion. Another example of the heart ruling the head for some of the LNP cheerleaders. If this seat was in western Sydney, maybe, but it’s not – it’s about as QUEENSLAND as you get for a semi urban seat and for that reason alone it’s not going to fall.

    Same goes for Griffith and Oxley. If I’m wrong I have obviously gotten out of touch with the mood and demographics of my former home in SEQ.

19. If Galaxy says 50-50, then in my opinion, Galaxy is off by at least 4%. ALP 2PP will not be worse than 2010.

20. I agree, the local member Shayne Neumann is highly respected and very hard working. I’ve met many LNP people whom even think this and many who don’t seem to know much about what their candidate stands for.

21. Always interesting how these posts of “I have met many people from the other party and even they agree that X is great and they don’t even know their own person”.

    I was a a local event in the last week where there were a lot of LNP people and not one LNP person there had much nice to say about Shayne Neumann and had lots of good stuff to say about Theresa Harding.

22. The recent Galaxy polls in Blair, Dawson, Herbert and Griffith show a swing to the LNP of around 4% in those electorates. With around 2000 voters in total it should be a good approximation of the Qld swing. So I think the ALP will only retain 4 to 5 seats.

23. They must be impressed with her pizza takeaway style of campaigning waving signs by the roadside, I’ve not spoken to nor heard from a non LNP person who has heard any local ideas from her, she just repeats what’s in that book of theirs. Like the other candidates or not and mostly I don’t at least they all seem to have opinions on local issues and say what they think. I’ve seen the state MP who promised nothing Ian Berry mentoring her and she seems to be playing from his song sheet. My prediction is Shayne Neumann with a 2% margin two party preferred.

    My early prediction for the next state election is Mr Berry to have a massive swing back to Labor and be forever remembered or not as a oncerrrrr.

24. The Galaxy poll today I understand put LNP and Labor at 50-50. Galaxy seem to be on the money with their seat-by-seat polling. This one may go down to the wire. Internal polling showing this seat also too close to call.

25. What website do you go to that’s got the internal polling figures please?

26. No website.

27. pollbludger or ghost who votes

28. Huh, how do they know what the parties internal polling shows?

29. DB is a Liberal Party something-or-other with access to his own party’s internal polling.

    He was pretty spot on in the NSW state election, so obvious partisan lean aside you can take him pretty much at his word with this stuff.

30. ^It should be obvious IHD why someone would know what a parties internal polling shows.

    Assuming the greens maintain around 8-9% it seems that this seat will come down to the KAP votes and where their prefs go.

31. Well there’s no surprise if DB is a LNP person with access to internal polling that he has it knife edge, suppose next thing we will see is a Murdoch paper saying its a LNP win to try and influence the voters, personally I doubt their polling is accurate, I’ve been polled 5 times and you can tell the LNP ones because they push you a certain way that others don’t with rhetoric that’s derogatory towards Kevin Rudd. So hardly a fair assessment, I don’t see the level of support to underpin that, few signs, fewer workers, and little knowledge in the electorate of who she is hence she wears a scarf with her name on it lol.

32. Momentum for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This morning, Centrebet odds in Blair shows support for Labor drifts from $1.55 to $1.60 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.30 to $2.10.

33. The announcement this morning by Dale Chorley that he intends to seek funding for the re-opening of the Brisbane Valley rail line will certainly throw the cat among the pigeons.
    While currently running behind the two headed monster this announcement will certainly add to his vote and to the confusion that the KAP is creating all over the State. Who knows we may be seeing the end of the Coles/Woolies ALP/LNP paradime forever. If the KAP can achieve that then the whole nation wins.

34. Reopening the rail line – you’ve got to be joking!

    The line was slow, indirect and led nowhere. It would be a folly, verging on the ridiculous to reopen it. Aside from that, much of the corridor has been rededicated as public open space, so what Dale Chorley is actually proposing is to close down parks.

    That’s ridiculous.

35. So are the DLP now aligning themselves with the KAP?

36. Jumped ship did you Tony?

37. Indeed – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/bob-katter-hints-at-preference-sharing-deal-with-labor-and-the-coalition/story-fn9qr68y-1226698079664

38. We are the only country in the world that is closing down lines. The rail line would open up again areas that are needed. Timber and quarrying industries would once again have the benefit and passengers from a host of towns would actually be able to rail to Brisbane. Tourism would improve along with other industries.
    As for shutting down park areas where the hell did you get that idea. Besides most of the towns have a host wilderness surrounding them and finally people would be able to appreciate these towns.
    So Macca-Bne you statement is ludicrous.

39. “We are the only country in the world that is closing down lines.”

    I don’t suppose you have any evidence of that wide-reaching statement?

40. We certainly are not the only country in the world which has closed down slow, indirect rail lines of limited economic benefit which require extremely significant government subsidies.

    The idea of having rail lines everywhere is 19th century thinking. Sure, in the 1880s, it was rational to be logging in the Brisbane Valley, transport the logs (via horse drawn cart) to the train line, put the logs on a train down to Ipswich, have that train go straight into the sawmill and then shipped out to market – but this isn’t the 19th century. It is much cheaper, faster and much more efficient to put the logs on a truck and send it straight to the sawmill.

    The idea that a train line is going to attract anywhere near the number of tourists required to justify construction of a new rail line is ridiculous – It’s just not going to happen. You would need tens of thousands…. daily! It doesn’t add up.

    Take your 19th century protectionism elsewhere.

    Also, if you wanted to reopen the rail line, you would have two options:
    1) Use the former line’s corridor
    2) Use a new corridor

    If you follow Option 1, you would find that the former corridor is now a recreational trail, popular with horse riders and cyclists. You would also have to tear up Fernvale Memorial Park, Lowood Railway Park, Coominya Railway Park, Pipeliner Park in Esk and the Toogoolawah Skate Park.

    Let’s also remember that you would have to move the Toowoomba pipeline from Wivenhoe (which Pipeliner Park is named for and was only constructed in 2010: http://www.gattonstar.com.au/news/esks-pipeliner-park/552189/)

41. Just because one irresponsible government closed it down does mean that a new or part new corridor couldnt be found.
    Its is needed and and would certainly be a boost to the whole district.
    Most of the corridor through to Moore is still available and and if their is a small portion now being utilised then so be it.
    The benefit overides and inconvenience .

42. Continuing on:

    Option 2 is that you purchase a new corridor – Which blows the costs out of the water and then you’re either bulldozing farms and have the stations in useless locations on the edges of towns, or you demolish houses and have them in the centre of towns.

    Either way, I measured the distance from Toogoolawah to Blacksoil on the Brisbane Valley Highway vs the former rail line. The Highway is 72.6km and takes 51 minutes. The rail line was 81.3km long. Just to match the time of the highway, you would need an average speed of 95.6km/hr on that line. That would be impossible on the current alignment (due to tight curves and steep grades). Keep in mind that even the fastest sections of the Translink network (from Beenleigh to Varsity Lakes) average 84km/h over 49km, with trains reaching maximum speeds of 130km/hr. This was all built on a new alignment.

    Put simply: You’re dreaming and the idea of reopening the train line is a slow, inefficient, expensive white elephant!

43. Tony, you just don’t get it. The issue isn’t the positives or negatives of the concept of having a train line. Conceptually, it’s a fantastic idea. Would really help to link a lot of those communities.

    However when you actually look at how it would be delivered in real life, it’s clear that it’s just not a realistic proposition for a region of 22,000 people! It would be slow, expensive and indirect.

    I’m not arguing against better transport for the region. I agree that Fernvale and Lowood especially need better bus services to Ipswich, but rail is just ridiculously over the top.

44. Further setback for Labor according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Blair shows support for Labor eases from $1.60 to $1.65 whilst support for the LNP remains steady at $2.10.

45. Lurch, Sportsbet has it at $1.75 to $2, so even closer now 😉

    In terms of internal polling, I am aware that there is LNP, ALP, Newspoll types and Union initiated ones been done for Blair. Talking to both ALP and LNP and the polling they have got this could well be close and one not decided on the night.

    If the swing is on then Neumann will very likely fall, if the swing slows he will probably hold.

46. Australian Independents and PUP are preferencing LNP. Nuemann doesn’t stand a chance. An opportunity to make some easy money.

47. Blair is very close from internal polling but there seems to be a late swing to the Coalition here and I’d suggest they may get over the line if 70% of PUP voters follow how to vote cards.

48. No-one really knows how closely PUP and KAT supporters are going to follow how-to-votes – it will be interesting to examine in the wash-up after the election.

49. kme – History suggests most do (i.e. between 60-70%) and past evidence can be demonstrated through the Greens and One Nation. I’m going to post something on this in the main election thread.

50. Mr_ Craig – Thanks for the updated Sports Bet odds in this electorate.

    Further blow to Labor according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Blair shows support for Labor drifts from $1.65 to $1.70 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.10 to $2.05.

    Certainly a seat to watch on election night.

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