Blair – Australia 2013

ALP 4.2%

Incumbent MP
Shayne Neumann, since 2007.

Geography
Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as  Somerset Regional Council. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy.

History
Blair was created at the 1998 election, one of a number of seats created in Queensland over the last few decades. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 2007, when the ALP won.

Blair took over territory in Ipswich in 1998 from the seat of Oxley. Oxley had a long history of being held by the Labor Party but was lost to disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson in 1996. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. Hanson came first on primary votes, but lost on preferences. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson held Blair at the 2001 and 2004 elections, but lost in 2007 to Labor candidate Shayne Neumann. Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest, although it gained areas to the southwest which have since been shedded. The 2010 redistribution again favoured Labor, but Neumann suffered a 2.7% swing at the election.

Candidates

  • Elwyn Denman (Family First)
  • Shayne Neumann (Labor)
  • Dale Chorley (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Anthony Mackin (Rise Up Australia)
  • Teresa Harding (Liberal National)
  • Anthony Stanton (Palmer United Party)
  • Claire Rudkin (Greens)
  • Shannon Deguara (Australian Independents)

Assessment
Blair is a marginal Labor seat, and if there is a significant anti-Labor swing the seat will likely fall to the LNP. In current circumstances, this seems less likely.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Shayne Neumann ALP 30,890 42.08 -9.23
Neil Zabel LNP 27,525 37.50 -2.11
Patricia Petersen GRN 8,122 11.06 +6.96
Joshua Olyslagers FF 3,605 4.91 +2.86
Brad King IND 3,267 4.45 +4.45

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Shayne Neumann ALP 39,814 54.24 -2.74
Neil Zabel LNP 33,595 45.76 +2.74
Polling places in Blair at the 2010 federal election. Central Ipswich in blue, East Ipswich in red, North ipswich in green, Rural Ipswich in orange, Somerset in purple. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Blair at the 2010 federal election. Central Ipswich in blue, East Ipswich in red, North ipswich in green, Rural Ipswich in orange, Somerset in purple. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. Most of Blair’s population lives in the urban area around the centre of Ipswich, and these have been divided into Central, North and East.

The ALP won a majority in those areas in urban Ipswich, varying from 54.2% in the north to 63.2% in the east. The LNP won a majority of 53% in rural Ipswich and 56.2% in Somerset.

The Greens’ vote varied from 7.9% in Somerset to 13.1% in East Ipswich.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central Ipswich 12.03 57.97 23,778 32.39
North Ipswich 10.85 54.18 10,926 14.88
Somerset 7.91 43.84 9,835 13.40
East Ipswich 13.06 63.20 8,490 11.57
Rural Ipswich 10.15 46.94 5,302 7.22
Other votes 10.95 52.68 15,078 20.54
Two-party-preferred votes in Blair at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Blair at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Blair at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Blair at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Ipswich urban area at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Ipswich urban area at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in the Ipswich urban area at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in the Ipswich urban area at the 2010 federal election.

108 COMMENTS

  1. This will be a seat to watch on election night. Based on the current political climate and opinion polls in Queensland, Shayne Neumann will have a huge task to retain this seat for Labor.

    Latest Sports Bet odds in Blair show that Labor has drifted from $1.50 to $1.73 whilst the Coalition has firmed from $2.50 to $2.00.

  2. This will be a close contest. Ipswich will need to come out in droves as they did for the State Election.

  3. At the last election, Neumann only suffered a swing of 2.47% whilst next door in Oxley suffered a swing of 5.57%. Any reason for this? Neumann personal vote?

  4. Rosemary,

    Sophomore surge probably, plus the major redistribution of Blair before 2010 would have muddled things a bit.

    The problem for Neumann is that Labor is probably going to put all their Qld effort into saving Swan and Emerson if the polls remain poor. The foot-soldiers in Blair, Moreton and Petrie will likely be left to their fate.

  5. Was in this neck of the woods on the weekend, and the LNP candidate Teresa Harding was everywhere. Lots of support from the LNP with next to nothing from Shayne Neumann supporters. Will be interesting, but I expect the seat to fall to the LNP

  6. I happened to see Shayne Neumann holding mobile office number 274 since the 2010 election.

  7. Harding is campaigning hard in the electorate. In fact, I think the four candidates in the Southern part of Brisbane which the LNP have selected are top-class. Cole, Nguyen, Harding and Lin. Cole seems like the only certainty so far, but the other three candidates will make their opponents feel a bit nervous on election night.

  9. According to Centrebet, the gap has narrowed in this seat between Labor and the LNP. I agree with DB and would not be surprised if this seat fell to the LNP on election night considering the unpopularity of the Prime Minister and the Labor brand.

  10. According to Sports Bet, the gap has also narrowed in this electorate. The odds in this electorate as of this morning show Labor steady at $1.73 and the Coalition firming from $2.00 to $1.92.

    The momentum is with the Coalition and it makes it much harder for Shayne Neumann to retain this electorate for the government.

  11. Slightly better news for Shayne Neumann.

    According to Sports Bet this afternoon the odds in this electorate show Labor has firmed from $1.73 to $1.70 whilst the LNP has eased from $1.92 to $1.95.

  12. I must admit I am surprised at those odds.

    With a small swing last time, and being an outer suburban seat that can swing big when the government changes, I’d have thought the LNP would be favourites here.

  13. I agree MDMConnell, I think the LNP will pick this seat up. It’s an area that tends to swing with government lately at a federal and state level. I doubt Shayne Neumann can hold on here.

  14. Talking to Shayne Neumann you do feel a bit sorry for him. He to me, seems to have that desperate air to him which says ‘I am in big trouble’.

  15. More Worrying news for Shayne Neumann.

    According to Centrebet this afternoon the odds in this electorate show Labor has drifted from $1.42 to $1.65 whilst LNP has firmed from $2.60 to $2.10.

  16. Momentum continues for the LNP.

    This morning Centrebet odds in Blair shows that the gap between the major parties continues to close with the price for Labor plummeting from $1.65 to $1.80 whilst the price for LNP strengthening from $2.10 to $1.90.

  17. A bit weird. You’ve also left out Shannon Deguara who is running for the Australian Independents. An odd thing to leave out one would have thought given the significance of it. This Australian Independents fellow is preferencing the LNP ahead of Labor. I assume he’ll give his preferences to the minor parties first, but he has publicly stated that he will preference Harding over Neumann.

  18. There is no way Shayne Neumann will retain this seat. The Australian Independents candidate is going to preference the Liberal Party ahead of Labor in Blair. You can’t blame the fellow. Shayne Nuemann’s staff started saying some pretty nasty things about the young man as soon as he announced he was running. I think that Shayne Neumann has slit his own throat and has done Labor no favours here.

  19. Another blow to Shayne Neumann.

    According to Sportsbet this morning the odds in the electorate show that support for Labor is ebbing away with the price drifting from $1.70 to $1.85. In contrast, support for LNP is strengthening with the price firming from $1.95 to $1.85.

  20. Didn’t swing much here last time because the candidates in both Oxley and Blair (no disrespect to them) were more names on paper than actual active candidates. This time is different and this time both seats have some attention from their superiors.

  21. Follow the money I say. The bookies are rarely wrong, and now that Neumann has switched support for leaders again to save his own hide, his odds will blow further. Cannot work out why Neumann just does nothing for the many thousands of manufacturing jobs in this electorate. You would expect him to champion the Labor cause with them, but he just talks rhetoric and lets them down. Hope he has Plan B ready to roll.

  22. Well Rod south u could not be more wrong Shayne Neumann has now firmed to $1.50, LNP drifted to $2.50

  23. Would be now worth a bet for Harding to unseat Neumann on these odds- inside word is that Neumann is still in trouble.

  24. @ telling the truth: Neumann is claiming to have done 274 mobile offices but I can guarantee you that he has not done one in my Suburb amongst them and it is really quite easy to get right into the thick of it where I am.

  25. Mr Craig
    Clearly you are no fan of Neuman. Stephen Jones (MP Throsby) pointed to Neuman’s experience in small business. He ran a legal practice. Was wondering if you might comment ??

  26. Momentum builds for Rudd Labor as the gap between the major parties widens.

    According to the latest Centrebet odds in Blair support for Labor has firmed from $1.80 to $1.30 whilst support for the LNP has eased from $1.90 to $2.65.

  27. Further support for Rudd Labor in this electorate.

    This afternoon Sports Bet odds in Blair show that support for Labor firms from $1.60 to $1.50 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $2.30 to $2.50.

  28. My apology, the correct Sports Bet odds in Blair show support for Labor firms from $1.50 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $2.50 to $2.75.

  29. @winediamond: How does running a business or not relate to my comment of Neumann not actually holding one of his supposed 274 mobile offices in my suburb in the last three years? Wondering if you could provide the link between the two so I can provide you with an answer cause I cannot see how a failure of his in the last three years links.

  30. Mr Craig
    I wasn’t responding directly to that particular post. However Customer Relations Management is important(in business) !! . So clearly if he failed to (even) communicate with, you that is not good.

  31. Mr_Craig, how would you even know how many mobile offices he has held, I believe Shayne Neumann alot more than I would you. Just because he hasn’t done one in your suburb doesn’t mean he hasn’t done a specific number. He decides where to do them not you, and if your so desperate to see him, book an appointment at his office. My member doesn’t even hold mobile offices and says his electorate is important to him and i don’t really care because i would book a meeting with him if i wanted to see him

  32. Mr Craig – time to state which suburb you are talking about that Shayne hasn’t held a mobile office in?

    Seems strange that back in May you made the following comment “Talking to Shayne Neumann you do feel a bit sorry for him. He to me, seems to have that desperate air to him which says ‘I am in big trouble” but now you are saying that he has failed to communicate with you?

  33. Mr Craig, in your defence Shayne Neumann did have a large photo on his facebook of a sign claiming 274 mobile sites had been conducted by him – so the claim has been made. I would suggest most of those mobile sites were conducted by his paid staff and in all seriousness I question the number claimed. He does not strike me as the over active type.

  34. Rod, maybe you should contact Mr Neumann’s office first before you go suggesting. I did. I was told that in fact these are only the mobile offices that Shayne has actually held himself. Quite amazing really – a very active member.
    Mr Craig I am still waiting to find out which suburb you think Shayne hasnt held a mobile office in cause I am not afraid to contact them again to find the truth.

  35. More support for Rudd Labor in this electorate.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Blair show that support for Labor firming from $1.40 to $1.23 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $2.75 to $3.70. This momentum is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor tightening from $1.30 to $1.24 whilst support for the LNP easing from $3.20 to $3.65.

  36. Support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Blair shows support for Labor eases from $1.24 to $1.28 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $3.65 to $3.40.

  37. Dale Chorley is the candidate for the KAP in Blair and is being touted as a real chance here.
    Blair and Wright are seats the KAP believe they can win and if a seat falls to the KAP in the South East corner then it could very well change the demographics of politics in this country. Kennedy is a certaintly, Dawson is a good chance so if either Blair or the seat of wright falls then there could be real optimision around the country.

  39. I think KAP could deliver this to the LNP if they preference this way. I expect seats to go both ways in QLD.

  40. Tony: “Dale Chorley is the candidate for the KAP in Blair and is being touted as a real chance here.”
    Touted as a real chance by who? Katter? Refer to a local poll to back this up pls.

    One could see a good KAP candidate gaining some votes from west Ipswich and Sommerset way but not where most of the electorate lives. The Greens will probably have a higher vote in central Ipswich than KAP. When Katter appeared on the Q&A town hall show at Ipswich he was popularly received but also jeered a little.

  41. PJ, a good benchmark for Katter would be where One Nation polled well. Yes they are different parties, but Katter IIRC did OK in this part of the world, and I can see them taking to Katter’s populist conservativeism.

  43. Support for Rudd Labor according to betting sites.

    This morning, Centrebet odds in Blair shows support for Labor tightens from $1.28 to $1.18 whilst support for the LNP eases from $3.40 to $4.25. Currently, Sports Bet odds in this seat shows support for Labor firms from $1.23 to $1.10 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $3.70 to $6.50.

  44. For those who are trying to question me, you will call Neuman’s office and he will say he has done community corners in my suburb however, stuffing a flyer in my letterbox that says ‘trapse across the countryside to come see me in another suburb’ altogether does not count as a local visit. The reality is he has not done one in my Suburb and compared to most areas, mine is a very easy area to get into and cover. Sitting in other suburbs nearby and saying you have visited ‘the area’ is not getting into the local community which constitutes my suburb.

    As for how have I talked to him, well, Ipswich Show, Jacaranda Festival and other events where all the pollies on both sides come out an pretend they are interested in what you have to say. Once again a case of not getting out to the people.

  45. Encouraging news for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Blair shows that support for Labor eases from $1.10 to $1.18 whilst support for the Coalition firms from $6.50 to $4.25.

  46. More encouraging news for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This evening, Centrebet odds in Blair shows support for Labor eases from $1.18 to $1.20 whilst support for the Coalition tightens from $4.25 to $4.00.

  47. Momentum for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This evening, Sports Bet odds in Blair shows support for Labor drifts from $1.18 to $1.35 whilst support for the LNP firms from $4.25 to $2.90. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.20 to $1.30 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $4.00 to $3.20.

  49. Current polling shows the Coalition not without hope and that Peter Beattie will not influence voter intentions.

  50. Is that internal polling, DB?

    Also, nobody ever said that Beattie running in Forde would itself raise the Labor vote in other nearby seats. It’s not so much his name, as his campaigning, that is going to help. So I’m not surprised that the announcement of his candidacy isn’t affecting intentions in Blair.

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