Berowra – Australia 2013

LIB 16.2%

Incumbent MP
Philip Ruddock, since 1993. Previously Member for Parramatta 1973-1977, Member for Dundas 1977-1993.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Berowra covers most of Hornsby Shire and northern parts of the Hills. Major suburbs include Berowra, Hornsby, Cherrybrook, Pennant Hills, and Dural. It also stretches as far north as Dangar Island and Wisemans Ferry.

History
Berowra was created at the 1969 election, and has always been safely retained by the Liberal Party.

The seat was first won in 1969 by Tom Hughes. Hughes had previously held the seat of Parkes since 1963, but its abolition in 1969 saw him move to Berowra. He was Attorney-General in John Gorton’s government, but was dropped from the cabinet when William McMahon became Prime Minister, and he retired at the 1972 election.

In 1972, the seat was won by Harry Edwards, a professor of economics at Macquarie University. Edwards held the seat for the next 21 years, retiring in 1993. He was replaced by Philip Ruddock, who had held other seats since 1973. Ruddock has held the seat ever since, serving as a senior minister for the entirety of the Howard government.

Candidates

  • Mick Gallagher (Independent)
  • Leighton Thew (Christian Democratic Party)
  • John Storey (Greens)
  • Deborah Smythe (Stable Population Party)
  • Philip Ruddock (Liberal)
  • Paul Graves (Palmer United Party)
  • Michael Stove (Labor)

Assessment
Berowra is a very safe Liberal seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Philip Ruddock LIB 51,416 59.98 +5.44
Michael Stove ALP 18,901 22.05 -7.88
Toni Wright-Turner GRN 9,762 11.39 +2.57
Mick Gallagher IND 2,455 2.86 +1.27
Steve Evans CDP 2,350 2.74 +0.21
Christian Ellis FF 840 0.98 -0.28

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Philip Ruddock LIB 56,752 66.20 +6.19
Michael Stove ALP 28,972 33.80 -6.19
Polling places in Berowra at the 2010 federal election. Berowra in orange, Cherrybrook-Pennant Hills in yellow, Dural-Maroota in green, Hornsby in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Berowra at the 2010 federal election. Berowra in orange, Cherrybrook-Pennant Hills in yellow, Dural-Maroota in green, Hornsby in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in the sparsely-populated north and west of the seat have been grouped as “Dural-Maroota”. Booths at the southern end of the seat have been grouped as “Cherrybrook-Pennant Hills”. Those booths in the east of the seat have been split into Berowra in the north and Hornsby in the south.

The Liberal Party’s majority varied from 75.5% in Berowra to 78.1% in Dural-Maroota. The Greens came third, with their vote varying from 8.2% in Dural-Maroota to 15.1% in Berowra.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Cherrybrook-Pennant Hills 10.19 65.56 31,331 36.55
Dural-Maroota 8.19 78.11 15,452 18.03
Hornsby 14.48 57.84 14,313 16.70
Berowra 15.13 57.53 7,262 8.47
Other votes 12.28 67.29 17,366 20.26
Two-party-preferred votes in Berowra at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Berowra at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Berowra at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Berowra at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southern parts of Berowra at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southern parts of Berowra at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in southern parts of Berowra at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in southern parts of Berowra at the 2010 federal election.

19 COMMENTS

  3. In good years Labor has won booths in Hornsby, but even with that the rest of the area is so blue-ribbon Lib that it has never been competitive.

    Having said that, I’m very confident that Labor will again win the 2PP on Dangar Island.

  4. @PJ:

    hahaha. That is a good little anomoly. How many votes were made there?

    Interesting that the Greens actually got 47% there.

  5. Edwards was rushed into parliament in response to complaints about Libs lack of economic expertise but went nowhere & was more interested in moral issues.

  6. From what I’ve read, 118 valid ballots (5 informal) were cast on Dangar Island in 2010. It has been consistently Greens then Labor for a number of elections, with Ruddock barely getting a look in. Does anyone know why Dangar Island always goes to the Left so strongly?

  7. Araleunian, Dangar Island is about as close to an eco-paradise as you can get within the confines of Sydney’s boundaries. It’s residents are largely wealthy, environmentally-aware types who have moved or retired there for it’s proximity to the national park. In short, it’s a bit of a green lifestyle enclave on the Hawksbury and the voting (largely Green) reflects that.

    It’s very pricey though, so it’s far more North Shore green than say Nimbin/The Channon green, if that makes sense.

  8. Hi, I am Paul Graves, the Palmer United Party candidate for Berowra. I am standing primarily as I am fed up with the two-party duopoly in this country (sorry, Greens!). The party machines, faceless back-room spin-doctors and lobbyists really control this country.
    I am a regular guy, just like all of the electors in Berowra. My number one priority is to ensure that the missing link between the F3 and M2 is tendered for in a transparent manner, as any large infrastructure project should be. The millions of wasted hours drivers suffer traveling on, or (even worse) across Pennant Hills Road is completely unacceptable; but so is providing a Toll road operator a Carte Blanche opportunity to build a private revenue stream, which if is built with only two lanes each way, will be obsolete before completion, just like the M2.
    I hope there will be support for change – the status quo has done nothing to promote this infrastructure other than the State Government announcing an “unsolicited proposal”.
    Appreciate your feedback…..

  9. Dangar Island is one of the two major “Eco-Paradises” in the North Shore (to quote PJ). The other one is Scotland Island, which is, federally, part of Mackellar.

    Interestingly, Rob Stokes won that both in the 2011 State Election. I think it is the first time in any election where a both has been held on Scotland Island that it had been won by the Liberal Party. Could Dangar Island do the same?

  10. Many in the seat of Berowra may well asked “where is Phillip Ruddock” During the past 2 weeks of the election campaign I have come across the ALP Michael Stove, the Greens John Storey & various independents campaigning/door knocking or on social media. As I look around, Mr Ruddock is no where to be found. Yes Yes, I know, he is mentoring Tony Abbott on his National tour of looking at things. “Mentoring”? I hear many say. Wow, if Tony Abbott still needs mentoring at this stage in his political career? God help us all.

    How does Mr Ruddock console with himself placing Tony Abbott before his constituents? He should be campaigning on the streets of Beecroft, Cheltenham & Hornsby et al explaining the LNPs vision for Berowra & Australia, not partaking in Tony Abbott’s month long tea party & donning on vests.

    The LNP have forgotten the seat of Berowra! Why? because a safe seat makes for a forgettable seat. Berowra is the third safest LNP seat in NSW. 60% of the voters in the seat blinding waltz into the voting booths & place a number one in the LNP box (without having an iota of knowledge about LNP policy). Can you blame the LNP in treating us with such contempt. Any wonder Abbott said (paraphrasing) – “the voters will do our sums (costings)” & Hockey stated (paraphrasing) “costings will bore the voter, they are not concerned with costings”.

  11. Prediction: Obvious Liberal retain is obvious. But the margin here seems big enough anyway, so I expect the margin to not change much.

  13. Kind of surprised to see Ruddock holding on here given that, I would assume, his ministerial days are behind him. There was speculation some time ago that he stayed on in 2010 so that he could shore up the local numbers for a successor of his choice, but perhaps that was wrong (or perhaps the David Clarke numbers are still in the ascendency?)

    Amazing to think that Ruddock has now been in parliament for 40 years.

  14. We all need to ask ourselves why Phil is hanging on. His parliamentary (defined benefit) yearly payout would have to be higher than his salary. It is probably to his (personal) cost to keep working !!!

  15. I think it may very well be to do with the Clarke factor and keeping one of his zealots out of the seat.

  16. As long as the semi-rural areas of Hornsby Shire remain in Berowra, a Lib win is assured. The margin is quite inflated but the main centre of the seat (Hornsby) was divided at the redistribution leading into the 2007 election when Bradfield hopped the F3 freeway and took the areas east of the Pacific Hwy north to the Bobbin Head turn-off.

    In good years (Fed and esp State), LAB wins the Hornsby booths easily and in neutral years they are swingy. The suburbs north of Hornsby lean Liberal but some booths like Asquith, Cowan & Brooklyn are sometimes won by LAB in good years. Danger Island is a Green “fortress” LOL. Suburbs south of Hornsby trend more strongly Liberal. These semi rural booths are mostly small excepting the Dural booths but these pad the margin significantly with Libs generally collecting 70+% of the vote. Suburban Berowra itself is probably an 8-10% Lib seat in non major swing years.

  17. Well if he serves another full term, he will overtake Sir Earle Page and become the second longest serving member of parliament after Billy Hughes. He would need to remain in Parliament until 2025 to overtake Hughes, by which time, Ruddock would be aged 82.

  19. Maybe David Clarke will put Jaymes Diaz up for Berowra in 2016, now that Jaymes has murdered his political career in Greenway. Even Jaymes couldn’t lose Berowra.

    Good on Mr Ruddock for standing his pre-selection ground.

Comments are closed.