Bennelong – Australia 2013

1. Observer
   You would ask wouldn’t you.

2. Ummm yes, thus my question…..?

3. I think Glenn was ok to question initially but the persistance of the questioning is probably what annoyed DB. I think it was a failure of Glenn to read between the lines and understand that the information being given is not normally done so. I have found DB to be very reliable in his information and his information helped paint the picture.

   Glenn needed to understand that DB’s info was not the ‘be all to end all’ but just one of a many line of reasonably-reliable polls that help build an overall picture.

4. Hawkeye
   Yes, correct. i agree completely. Hence the badgering was offensive, & had a personal inference. Just because this is a political place, doesn’t give licence to behave as the pollies do. Obfusication, avoidance, & evasion of responsibility.
   We are all responsible for our communications, actions, & the effect of them
   If someone takes offence it is not simply “their problem”

5. I hope Glenn sees this and sends on an apology, in light of this. I think failure to do so shows his inability to understand the consequences of his actions.

6. There was no obfuscation, there was no avoidance, and there was no evasion. I merely pointed out the flaw in trusting internal poll numbers that get leaked, irrespective of who is leaking it (meaning, the poll numbers aren’t more trustworthy because DB is the one posting them). I have re-read my post that got the response from DB a number of times, and still cannot see how it can be interpreted as an attack. And an apology from me would be hollow and meaningless, as it would be insincere.

   One of the biggest problems with society is the idea that you have the right to not be offended by something, even if it wasn’t intended as an offense, and even if you are reading things into it that aren’t there. Society, for some reason, thinks that if someone offends you, you deserve an apology. This is why gay marriage, for instance, is having so much trouble getting support within politics.

   Now, I’m not going to respond on this absurd argument again, and I suggest that others stop, too. It’s off-topic, and does nobody any good. As such, I’m going to end this comment with something on-topic, in the hopes of stimulating real discussion.

   So, the ALP’s new candidate, Mr Li, is an interesting choice to make. Perhaps an example, in some ways, of what I suggested, in that Mr Li is not part of the current Labor mess in the area, he looks very clean. He apparently hasn’t been involved in anything particularly political since 1998, which sets him apart from typical Labor candidates. He also appears to have the credentials to quickly be given a ministry of some sort, perhaps even Attorney-General (the current AG, Mark Dreyfus, has three other portfolios, I could see a reshuffle giving the AG to Mr Li, should he win).

   Of course, I think it’s safe to say that Labor won’t be winning Bennelong if they aren’t going to get enough seats for government. But I think Mr Li is a strong choice, from what I can see, having the past experience in politics but the separation from recent political scandals. He may not be from the electorate, but he’s from Sydney, which puts him ahead of Maxine McKew.

   So what do people think? Will the choice of Mr Li work for or against Labor in this seat?

7. I gotta disagree with the AG claim, Dreyfus should retain that spot until he retires but I certainly would say Li is a frontrunne for a ministry if he wins.

   Absolutely the bennelong Asian community will be more inclined to vote labor this time especially with yellow and red as the campaign colours. Mr Li also has credentials you would expect in a liberal candidate which is why he can appeal to the centre right rather then the left (much like the labor candidate for Fisher). His young family will allow him to keep connected with the traditional labor voters. Also rudd being returned will resinate well

   I think the Ryde council scandal want effect Mr Li the slate has been cleared and Mr Li is honest and hardworking and unlike Alexander actually lives in the area.

   I’d say this seat could swing behind labor even if labor held seats with margins of 1-4 fall to the libs

8. Observer, does he really live in Bennelong? From what I can tell, he’s been living in China (specifically, Beijing) recently. Or are you saying he’s announced he’ll move into the electorate?

   As for the AG position, I’m not sure how qualified Dreyfus actually is – perhaps you know better than I would. He took the position when Nicola Roxon retired, and it feels, at this point, like he hasn’t done all that much since then. AG is one of those positions that should be quite visible, from what I can tell, and yet I had no idea who was AG until I checked it when writing my last comment.

9. He’s career takes him overseas a lot like bob Carr but I think his family lives in bennelong so he would be registered there. If he wins he won’t be flying so often except to Canberra

   Mark Dreyfus is a really qualified person for AG. He’s a barrister, he’s been an advisor for the victorian AGs, he was actually one of the top lawyers in Victoria for media business, vice chair of the victorian bar, director of law council of australia, represented the labor opposition in court matters. That’s why he hasn’t really held any other portfolio except really AG prior to being picked. He does keep a low profile but if your keen in politics and the law you will know Dreyfus well.

   I recon when Carr retires, and if Li gets in he’s a good chance of foreign affairs

10. Ben Raue, thank you for your comment. Out of respect for you and the great service you provide I will continue to contribute to this site. As a matter of interest to readers (if they are interested), I am male, late 30’s and grew up in western Sydney. And yes, I am the same DB that contributes to Peter Brent’s Mumble and am irregularly mentioned by Peter in some of his articles at times.

    To the other commenters such as winediamond and hawkeye, thanks for your comments in support.

    Yes, I am aligned to the Liberal Party but I am not here to promote a Liberal agenda. I hope I can provide a different view at times and updates as I receive them. I will be very careful in future.

    Glen, let’s move on. I agree we should just focus on the seats at hand at this very informative and invaluable site. So, enough said.

    Regarding Bennelong, I truly believe this ‘target seat’ by Rudd is a furphy. I cannot see Labor with any hope in this seat at all in this election. It is a seat that can fall to the ALP at a change in Government with a landslide result (as we saw in 2007). This election does not present one of those situations. For me, Bennelong is to Labor what Banks is to the Liberals. I suspect the ALP are playing with the minds of the Liberals. But from what I have seen this will be a comfortable retain for the Liberal Party, particularly with a sophomore surge to the incumbent MP.

    Thankyou all. Please now let it go.

11. Happy that you are staying.

12. @ DB – I’m surprised by your confidence in telephone polling: we have gone past the point where all households had a landline so that any sample based on telephones is now bound, however weighted, to be systematically biased (in a statistical rather than political sense). There is now a risk that this methodology suffers from the same issue as the imfamous Literary Digest poll that suggested Alf Landon would defeat Roosevelt in 1940. Good piece from Anthony Wells here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-sampling. There has also been some good stuff on Nate Silver’s website, and some material on RealClearPolitics about how the Romney pollsters seem to have missed the phenomenon.

    On the overall “political tilt”, can I say as another right of centre commenter, it is much more interesting to have a range of views exchanged civilly than a trolling competion: not least, there is ample opportunity for that sort of thing on the ABC’s Drum, and it isn’t terribly interesting.

13. DB, I don’t actually think sophomore surges will be as significant as they sometimes are, at least in some seats. My own seat of Forde, for instance, has Bert van Manen, who beat Brett Raguse in 2010 after Brett Raguse beat Kay Elson in 2007. Mr Raguse got no sophomore surge, and Mr Raguse was a lot more active in the community than Mr van Manen has been.

    From what I’ve heard, Mr Alexander has followed a similar path, having beaten Ms McKew in 2010 after she beat John Howard in 2007, with Ms McKew having not been very active in the community, but Mr Alexander being even less active. It is my understanding that sophomore surges occur because the community gets to know the sitting member better… but it’s difficult to do that if they’re not engaging with their community. That’s why I think Labor has a chance in this seat, with the right candidate. And I think Mr Li may just be the right candidate.

    I especially think this because Mr Alexander is famous for being a tennis player, and Mr Li is famous for being a businessman and lawyer. I don’t think it’s a clear win for Mr Li – I think he’s got his work cut out for him – but I do think it’s realistically achievable.

14. Pyrmonter – I think longer term, you are probably right. I don’t see it as an issue in this election for the following reasons:
    1. Newspoll has generally been reliable in recent State and Federal elections, particularly in the last 5 years or so (and particularly when its been close). Until I see any change, I’m still pretty comfortable relying on that. If anything, it has tended to understate the LNP and ALP primary vote at elections, albeit, its 2PP results have been pretty reliable.
    2. My experience with face-to-face polling is that it tends to understate the LNP primary vote significantly at the expense of the ALP and Greens (specifically I am referring to Morgan). I see a clear Shy Tory Factor in Australia in relation to face-to-face polling. I am actually looking to write something on this subject as I think it is worthy to do so.
    3. Essential is pretty consistent (on-line) with what the major telephone pollsters are saying, so I think it is fair to say that telephone polling is still reasonably reliable.

    And at the end of the day, the major pollsters, if using landlines, are still determining their results by a weighted average of particular age segments of the community. If there is any bias, at this point, I don’t think it would be significant. The higher MoE would more likely come from lesser samples in younger age brackets. But let’s also remember, the older age brackets are making up more of the overall vote and will continue to do this for the foreseeable future.

15. Glen, I think your understanding of sophomore surge is partly misguided. May I suggest you read some of Mr Peter Brent’s work on the subject if you are interested in it. It’s certainly not just about being seen on the ground in the electorate. In any case, if you are from the electorate of Forde, I’d question how you would really be in a position to comment on Mr Alexander unless you live in the electorate (and I don’t, but I am in a nearby electorate). Actually, I’d suggest being present in local papers and writing letters to the local paper which are published have a much bigger impact as most voters are ambivalent to politics and I’m sure Mr Alexander would be a regular in the weekly North Shore Times. You may be correct that Mr Alexander will carry a smaller personal vote as opposed to the Senate vote in his electorate (which I think is what you mean), but that is not entirely congruent with my understanding of sophomore surge and I have read much of Mr Brent’s work.

    From my perspective you can add a couple of percent relative to other electorates for a sophomore surge. It can be more or less, but it is very rarely negative. I think 1.5-2.5% is a fair estimate for John, which would mean that there would need to be a pretty strong swing against him for the ALP to win this seat and given the problems the ALP have had with candidature, I think their purported hopes in this seat are no more than gamesmanship. Let’s remember also, Labor have only won this seat once. although the boundaries have moved a little bit over the decades making it more marginal. I doubt very much that Mr Li commands the notoriety that Ms McKew did in 2007. There are many other seats where the result will be closer than this one.

16. Glen, I also think you will find there was a decent sophomore surge to Raguse in 2010 in Forde given:
    1. the swing against Raguse in Forde was smaller than the State average
    2. the swing in Forde’s surrounding seats against Labor was much higher than Forde.

    Can I suggest you give Peter Brent’s work in this subject a go.

17. Mea culpa – it was Landon v Roosevelt in ’36. Wendell Wilkie in ’40.

    (Anorak aside : Landon was father of Reagan era US Senator Nancy (Landon) Kassebaum)

18. @ DB – well, looking backward, that is, assessing pollster reliability against history, isn’t going to pick up a deviation if it has developed in the past 3-4 years. I’ve long discounted the Morgan polls – they tend to be very volatile, and, although I haven’t paid that much attention to them, seemed to have a pro-Labor “house bias” (whatever Gary M’s own politics). The concern is that there are now parts of the population with low rates of landline phone ownership, in particular those with a high propensity to move: often the young, but also quite a few middle aged professionals.

19. I can’t see family-oriented voters of Asian origin embracing the crass politics of a man whose previous campaign experience entailed handing out condoms emblazoned with ‘rooting for the Republic’ and demanding that Jodhi Meahres be the “tits of the nation” for the sake of cheap political points.

    But interesting that Turnbull tried to recruit Li to be the Liberal MP for Bradfield back when Nelson retired in 2009.

20. DB – I understand what you’re saying, and having looked into sophomore surges a little more. I still doubt that van Manen will get one. As for Alexander, I can only comment in relation to what I’ve read form what others have said, and I remain skeptical that he will get one. Note that I’m not actually suggesting a negative surge; just not a particularly positive surge – maybe 0.5%, before factoring in either the Rudd factor or Mr Li.

    Anyway, I actually think that Mr Li not having been in the public eye might work in his favour right now. What’s my reasoning? They had Howard, the PM, as their MP for so long. He was replaced by a famous journalist, and then her by a famous tennis player. I get the sense that both McKew and Alexander haven’t spent a lot of time in the electorate, and thus I’d imagine that voters would be looking for someone a little more… let’s say “grounded”. Someone competent and relatively “unknown”, in my view, would likely have a good chance. But it’s all speculation, isn’t it?

21. Glen
    As a Qlander, i believe you are under estimating the unabated disgust, & rage in NSW with the Labor brand. Labor are purportedly still concerned with the comparitive lack of traction Rudd has achieved in NSW.

22. winediamond – that’s precisely why I think the choice is a good one; Mr Li brings the benefit of not being a “Labor Politician”. That is, he has no connection to the NSW Labor brand with regards to the whole corruption issue.

    I noticed on ABC News 24 just now that Anthony Albanese was in Bennelong, today, giving a news conference, with Mr Li standing by his side. I’m interested to hear opinions on whether this is meaningful.

23. Glen
    & WTF is Albanese !!?? The Deputy PM !! for F….s sake !!!. Li isn’t Labor cmmmmmonnnnnn !!!! . Give it up !! . I’M with DB the ALP has no , repeat no chance in Bennelong. If you are really looking for an electoral fulcrum it is Parramatta, or Page.

24. I agree with Glen’s points. At the NSW election, the reason we held onto seats like Macquarie Fields, was because the ALP had candidates that weren’t imbedded with brand labor. Mr Li is someone who has respect by both sides of politics and obviously if Turnbull tried to recruit him to a blue ribbon liberal seat is very talented.

    I don’t think internal polling ever does this seat justice and if you do believe internal polling, you will note that the elctorate changed in one day with the rail announcement. So even if it is over 50% on primary as it is claimed, I wouldn’t rule anyone out at all.

    Winediamond, he is the DPM which is a huge role and I regardless of your views, its a big deal if he is in your electorate. And its true he isn’t brand labor especially if Turbull was interested in him, common sense can go a long way winediamond and not being one eyed on seat assessments. Labor has as much chance in Bennelong as any other party

25. winediamond – http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/news/deputy-pm-and-labors-bennelong-candidate-jason-li-walk-and-talk-through-eastwood/story-fngr8gwi-1226686757788

    And yes, Li doesn’t have the Labor brand tarnishing him. It probably helps that Malcolm Turnbull was his mentor, and attempted to get Li to run for pre-selection for the Liberals in the seat of Bradfield for the by-election in 2009 – a preselection for which John Alexander ran, interestingly enough. And Turnbull tried to get him to run for preselection in a number of seats over a number of years prior to that, too. It’s going to be tough for the Liberals to run a campaign against somebody that one of their most notable, and most popular, members was so active in trying to recruit.

    Note that I’m not suggesting that Bennelong is going to be an “electoral fulcrum” – I’m suggesting that Labor has some chance of getting the seat. The fact that you name two seats that are 4% Labor seats as a way to say “this isn’t going to go in Labor’s favour” means that I’m not really interested in further discussing this with a person who can neither remain civil nor actually provide stronger arguments than “It’s not going to happen because I say so!” When you have something real to contribute, I’ll be all ears.

26. Glen
    Alright Li may very well be a quality candidate, However that isn’t going to be anywhere near enough. Also. How is the incongruity, even contradiction, of a supposedly ‘non Labor candidate” hanging out with the DPM not apparent to you ???
    As for hanging out with Albo. Well you know the old saying “Lie with dogs wake up with fleas !!!”
    As for contributing something real. Are you serious ??. What could i add to the very comprehensive comments of DB. Maybe just a bit around the edges…!!!

27. winediamond, he’s not a “non Labor candidate”. He’s a Labor candidate who is clean of the “Labor brand” – you know, the image created by the various corruptions that were going on in the NSW Labor branch?

    Albanese is one of the cleanest-looking Labor MPs, that’s one reason why they were so happy to have him as DPM.

    But then, you’ve proven your true colours. You’re not interested in understanding the situation. You’ve decided that Labor’s going to lose because, in your view, Labor deserves to lose. DB’s comments have been measured – he speaks of it being unlikely, due to sophomore surges and Labor having more trouble in NSW. Your comments have been highly biased, as demonstrated by “Lie with dogs wake up with fleas”. And therein lies the problem. Indeed, the only reason I’m posting this is because it makes it so much clearer why I’m not wasting further time arguing with you. I’m looking forward to further discussion with DB, because he makes a real contribution; your contributions are not “a bit around the edges”, they’re well beyond the edges.

28. Glen
    We are a little sensitive arn’t we. I was being provocative. However my bias against Albo is based on his performance. I’ll go into that on my next Grayndler post.

29. I think Glen is being reasonable, no point debating or discussing if someone being bias will get in the way. Its why i don’t debate in Greenway because I genuinely believe labor will hold it but if i were Glen I would do the same

30. I’m clearly going to have to write up a comments policy, but until I do, can I ask people to play the ball not the man – Glen it’s fine to contradict @winediamond’s points, but it is completely unnecessary to attribute motivations to his arguments, ie. “true colours” and “highly biased”.

31. Regarding Bennelong, I think there are other seats that Labor are a better chance in: Gilmore, Macquarie and Macarthur and probably in that order.

    As for the ALP candidate, I don’t think he can really add much as a challenger as he would not have a substantial profile (such as Turnbull did or Garrett did). Most people are ambivalent towards politics. It may stop the perceived negativity towards the ALP in NSW, but no more than that in my opinion.

    If the 2PP is the same in NSW in this election as the last one (and polls seem to indicate this), this is not one that will change hands. It’s only fallen once in its history (notwithstanding some boundary shifts making it more ALP friendly) and that was partly due to a perceived old and tired PM in Howard. Labor will win this again, but this is not the election for it to happen.

    Labor have really strong changes in Gilmore and Macquarie and Labor would be better off focussing resources on those seats I would have thought.

32. DB
    Agreed, totally.However as iv’e projected previously. In the coming re- distribution 2015 the AEC will have little choice but to restore the entire Hunters Hill LGA to Bennelong thereby making it very safe liberal. Therefore i see no chance for Labor in the future.

33. DB, I think you may be mistaken on your read of Bennelong.

    In 2010, Alexander got a swing of just 4.52% to him. The average swing in NSW at that election was 4.84%. If the vote was well off balance in 2007 because Howard was an “old and tired PM”, then one would expect that, even with sophomore surge for McKew, Alexander would get a significant swing to him relative to the average.

    I propose that Bennelong was so safe under Howard, not because the seat was safe, but because Howard’s personal vote kept it safe.

    Also worth noting is that Bennelong has a substantial chinese-language-speaking community (second largest in Australia, at 18%), that it has the fourth highest percentage employed in the IT field (13.8%), and that it has a relatively large proportion of its members currently undertaking tertiary education (8.7%). Between Mr Li, the NBN, and Labor’s likely focus on education going into the election (let’s be honest, he’s addressing Labor’s “weak points” now, to prepare for an election campaign on Labor’s strong points), Labor has a reasonable chance of gaining support here.

    Whether it’s enough to reclaim the seat is certainly not obvious. But I wouldn’t dismiss it so quickly.

34. It’s very hard to judge what level of sophomore surge to expect in Bennelong. The seat was held for a long time by the Prime Minister, who was then successfully challenged by a well-known media figure, who in turn was successfully challenged by a well-known sports star.

    Sophomore surge is thought to come down to building name recognition, so Alexander’s pre-existing name recognition would reduce expectations of a surge; on the other hand his opponent last time had significant name recognition too and should have built a personal vote, so her absence this time would argue for a greater surge.

35. Another way to look at Bennelong’s non-personal vote is to look at Senate numbers. Looking at 2007, here’s the relevant numbers:

    Liberals/Nationals – 43.6%
    Labor – 38.85%
    Greens – 9.39%
    CDP – 1.96%
    Democrats – 1.28%
    Climate Change Coalition – 0.96%
    DLP – 0.57%
    Shooters/Fishers – 0.52%
    Carers Alliance – 0.51%
    Family First – 0.46%
    Others – 1.9%

    If we add up Labor, Greens, CCC, and Carers Alliance, we get 49.71%. It’s easy enough to see some “Others” and some Democrats being enough to push “the left” ahead from there.

    We can then repeat this for 2010. Here’s the numbers:

    Liberals/Nationals – 45.12%
    Labor – 32.64%
    Greens – 11.56%
    CDP – 2.16%
    LDP – 1.82%
    Sex Party – 1.3%
    Shooters and Fishers – 0.91%
    Socialist Alliance+Communist+Socialist Equality – 0.77%
    Family First – 0.7%
    Democrats – 0.63%
    DLP – 0.44%
    Carers Alliance – 0.42%
    Others – 1.53%

    While Labor lost quite a bit, a lot of it went to minor parties. If you add Labor, Greens, Sex Party, Socialist/Communist parties, and Carers Alliance, you get 46.69%. Clearly, the left was behind… but not by as much as the 2PP suggests. If people were voting in the seat against the Howard government exclusively, it would have been a much larger swing to the right.

    And so, I again suggest that it was Howard that kept the seat safe, and it’s winnable, although by no means easy to win. But I think the choice of Mr Li is one that makes it a little more winnable.

36. Glen, I understand why you are confusing policy with sophomore surge. But are you suggesting that the Asian community would be more swayed by NBN and education relatively? Would not, based on your arguments, Labor’s policy of limiting tertiarty education tax deductions to $2000 per annum impact on the Labor vote? Would this not offset benefits of the NBN, in which the Coalition also have a policy commitment?

    As to your post at 3.20pm, you are only pointing out that the differential between the Liberals and Labor of about 12.5% on primary in 2010 on Senate numbers would result in a thumping win to the Liberals as there would be some (say 20-25%) leakage of the minor/hard left preferences to the Liberal Party. For Labor to be a chance, they need to bring this to within 6%, which really means a primary vote shift required to Labor of about 6%. I can’t see it. The sophomore surge should play out to this end.

    …..

    Separately, I understand from Phil Coorey’s article in the AFR today that the ALP have “pencilled in” a victory in this seat. Surely Labor’s internal polling could not be that different to the Coalitions?

37. I suppose at the end of the day, if the ALP want to focus their (now) very limited resources on Bennelong at the expense of Lindsay, Greenway, Banks, Reid, Parramatta, and Macquarie, then who am I to argue?

    I personally think it is only Labor’s gamesmanship in an attempt to redirect the Liberal Party’s now superior forces in NSW. It is the first time in NSW’s history that the Liberals have more forces than Labor in the city seats thanks to the O’Farrell Government victory in 2011.

38. I’m not sure where Coorey got that idea from. My understanding is that NSW Labor considers Alexander to be a weak local member but to suggest that Labor is pencilling in a win here in what can only be described as an outside shot is simply wrong. As DB notes, there is lower hanging fruit than Bennelong, not to mention seats to be defended.

39. DB, I was pointing out some stats for the seat, for which Labor has an advantage. The large proportion of people who speak a Chinese language are likely to take interest in Mr Li for obvious reasons. The proportion of people who are in IT are likely to compare Labor’s NBN policy with the Coalition’s Broadband policy, and prefer the NBN (have a look at what internet experts are saying about the two, you’ll see what I mean). The proportion of people who are in tertiary education are going to care more about education, again for obvious reasons.

    As for the “tertiarty[sic] education tax deductions”, I don’t think you realise that that applies to work-related tertiary education, is applied to the company and not the student, and the changes that the Gillard government made to the tertiary education situation are one of the things rumoured to be among those considered for alteration by the Rudd government.

    And I’m not at all confusing policy with sophomore surge. I’m suggesting that the sophomore surge will be countered by policy.

    As for Labor internal polling saying that this is a Labor gain, perhaps they polled asking about what effect certain things would have on voting intentions – for instance, if they were asking things like “If Labor chose an influential Chinese-Australian businessman as their candidate for Bennelong, would this make you more or less likely to vote for Labor?” rather than just asking who they intend to vote for.

    Why do I say this? Because the change was only announced 6 days ago, I find it hard to believe that they’ve done a massive amount of polling in the seat since then.

    I assume you have Liberal internal polling information regarding the seat. All I suggest is, wait another week or two, and see what it’s saying then. I mean, it could be Labor just doing some opinion-influencing by making the claim… or it could be as I’ve described.

40. Curent polling shows a Liberal retain.

41. By what sort of margin DB? I expect Li to make this a close race if he campaigns well.

42. Yappo – looks like a small swing to the Coalition in this seat.

43. As I’ve suggested all along and Reachtel confirms, the Libs 65/35 in front. I haven’t seen the primary but it must be close to 60%. The ALP can’t win this seat.

44. if nsw is close to 50/50 according to the opinion polls how can Bennelong be 60/40 or better
    this does not make sense. remember last time was 53/47 Liberals way.
    maybe the opinion polls are way off…….

45. Yeah, I’m not believing the severity of these figures too much, but then even if it’s overstated by 5%, that’s still an easy retain.

46. Mick .Quinlivan – they can’t be all off. They are not commissioned by the Liberal Party. Internal polling is not that dissimilar in many of the seats on smaller samples. The marginals are swinging to the Coalition more than it seems the general polls are but we will probably get a Newspoll and Nielsen this weekend. I don’t trust any of the others.

    I genuinely believe at the moment, the Coalition are heading for around 85 seats. These polls tend to suggest it could be 95, perhaps more. The critical states seem to be NSW and VIC, but also SA is very poor for Labor, hence why Rudd was in Nick Champion’s seat of Wakefield today (about 10% margin). I made a comment on this site that I felt Wakefield was in danger for Labor. Rudd wouldn’t be there unless it was.

47. DB, they certainly can all be off. There are multiple explanations that do not involve any sort of conspiracy or intent.

    For instance, what if voters leaning left remain undecided while those leaning right have solidified? There’s strong evidence for this idea – recall that poll that had an “undecided” category, that had the Coalition leading with more than 50% primary vote… but it had a 33% undecided?

    What if people intending on voting Labor are refusing to respond? One person in my household happened to answer the phone to that Lonergan poll, and did the poll itself; another person in my household said that, if he’d answered, he would have just hung up on it. Part of the reason for that is the perception (that would be highest amongst Labor voters, since the polls are favouring the Liberals) that the polls are inaccurate anyway.

    Those are just two possible explanations for the numbers that would be consistent with a sudden apparent swing to the Coalition with no obvious explanation – there has been no announcement, no event, that could explain the swing. It seems much more reasonable to think that it’s an artifact of some sort, rather than a real swing.

48. Then Glen, why wouldn’t they do exactly the same thing with Nielsen and Newspoll. What you say doesn’t make any sense at all.

49. DB – the method of polling might explain some of that. The robopolls, which don’t give any chance of feedback, etc, would see a bigger impact of those effects, whereas polls with operators are more likely to coax answers out of people, thus reducing the impact.

    Let me flip it the other way – if it is even remotely accurate, why aren’t Nielsen and Newspoll producing results that agree? Surely if the effect is real, and not an artifact, it should happen across all polls?

50. Glen, there isn’t any proof based on past performance that any of what you say produces the effects you allege. What has suddenly made robopolls unreliable? As to your question about why Nielsen and Newspoll don’t reflect the swings, there are a few possibilities other than methodological problems: These marginal polls have been taken since the last issuance of each national poll, so maybe they will (the only national poll conducted contemporaneously with these was the Morgan phone poll that did show such a swing). More importantly, it is entirely possible that these swings are offset by swings in safer seats. Finally, because the campaigning is concentrated in the marginals, and has been, perhaps they are on the leading edge of movement to the Coalition that hasn’t filtered through yet.

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