Aston by-election, 2023

@Ben Raue Is it possible to add a map with the swings against the Libs in the last election?

Presumably, the minor right-wing parties’ vote decreases, particularly the UAP’s, given there is no tailwind of a 100 million dollar campaign, as well as the increased distance from ourselves and the lockdown era. Aston had an 8pp higher preference flow from UAP to Liberal than the national average, so perhaps that will lead to a more reliable return of votes to the Liberals (if the UAP vote does decrease).

If this seat was going to fall, it would’ve fallen in May last year. Tudge’s involvement with robotdebt was no secret at that time, nor was his alleged misconduct against Rachelle Miller. As WL noted on the other thread, it is likely that Tudge has a negative personal vote. The issue of the leader is not enough either. It is true that Dutton would hardly receive a roman triumph if he were to appear in Victoria, but in May, the Liberals recorded their worst Victorian result in their history, winning only ~21% of seats. With the shedding of an onerous member and the boost of not being part of an unpopular government (instead being an unpopular opposition), I predict this will be a Liberal retain.

Now that I think about it, Did the issues with Tudge help Jackson Taylor get a decent swing in Bayswater?

i am not sure Alan Tudge had anything to do with it. Labor did quite well in this part of Melbourne generally including in neighboring Ringwood, Glen Waverley etc. He was also quite popular locally and Labor campaigned strongly and was rewarded. Usually Labor does not campaign in Knox

Jackson Taylor worked really hard here & was everywhere, however I think it Tudge did help the ALP here. Its worth noting that in 2010 on these boundaries the ALP would have held this seat.

Agree Bob, on these boundaries ALP would win it if state results in November were repeated as well. It will good to have an a map with overlapping state results entered. While state and federal results are not always comparable it does show if the demographic exist for the challenging party to win.

Dutton is saying publicly it will be a tough seat to hold despite Aston’s long history of being Liberal held and the general swing against governments in by-elections. Possibly trying to build a “comeback” narrative, but could also show internal polling weakness.

Labor should try here and they’ve shown with Bayswater they can effectively campaign in the area. The chance for a win outweighs the risks from political narratives around a loss.

Anything about Rowville rail will seal the deal

Agree John about your 1st paragraph, Dutton is probably playing the underdog card because he and the Coalition don’t want to be seen as too confident/arrogant.

In terms of the outcome, it could either be like the Griffith by-election held after Kevin Rudd’s departure, where there will be a small swing to Labor but not enough to win the seat. Or it could be like the Gippsland by-election with a swing in the Liberals favour.

I think the results boil down to who the candidate is. If the Libs parachute in someone or a dud is preselected, it makes this seat very vulnerable to Labor. However if they preselect a non controversial local in a rank and file preselection, I think they should be fine. A lot of the talked about candidates, Roshena Campbell included, are failed candidates from the Casey preselection so it doesn’t give them the best look.

This seat might be considered traditionally Liberal-leaning but I would say that there’s a perfect storm of events in place for a Labor victory to take place. Quite a few people didn’t think the Liberal vote would have much further to fall in Eastern Melbourne during the 2022 state/fed elections but the result was that the trends seen in the last elections only continued to accelerate. Now, the government is running even higher and I severely doubt Peter Dutton will hold any greater appeal to this electorate than Scott Morrison.

It’ll be a tight result and candidate quality might make or break in those circumstances – but I doubt there will be reversion towards the Liberals based on Tudge leaving. Their poor results in this area extended to the Senate vote, surrounding electorates as well as the state election so the evidence seems lacking that the “Tudge factor” was a major influence.

Ben, on an unrelated note I found one of the links to this page is broken. The link under the section ‘Electoral calendar’ still directs to the Narracan supplementary election page.

Gippsland is probably a good comparison.

Kevin Rudd was polling even better than Albanese and very popular, but even then Labor got a big swing against them in a traditionally conservative seat. So much so that Rudd squibbed every subsequent by-election in a Coalition seat afterwards.

Unless the preselect an utter dud, the Liberals should be okay here.

It’s going to be a byelection where nobody wants to be seen as the favourite. The liberal party should probably hold it, but if there’s been any further transfer of support to the Labor party over the last 9 months, it’s a seat Labor could win given the small margin. Labor might be tempted to just run slightly dead here and see what happens.

Thanks Yoh An, fixed.

Dan M
Failed preselection candidates is nothing – especially in the public’s eye – compared to a defeated MP trying to make a comeback – and it also depends on the circumstances of that defeat. In the UK, they have parachuted defeated candidates into different seats a lot, I cannot think of any/ many Australian examples in recent decades when it has been successful. Kim Beazley moved to a safer seat in 1996 but he hadn’t been defeated. I would think any MP who has been defeated by a Teal is in a more invidious position than someone being defeated by a major party as it smacks more of a personality rather than political issue.

@redistributed

I generally think your right. A loss in preselection doesn’t really count from much with the public who don’t generally follow it or care. Interestingly, you mentioned Kim Beazley because he actually lost a preselection to John Dawkins for the safe Labor seat of Freemantle in 1977. Before Beazley was elected to parliament in the seat of Swan of Hawkes landslide win in 1983. Dawkins had been previously in federal parliament but lost his marginal seat of Tangney in the Whitlam’s government defeat of 1975.

Back to the seat of Aston if Labor does contest. They should select Mary Doyle again who was the Labor candidate for Aston at the last election for the benefit of continuity for the voters. Doyle would already have shirts and corflutes printed and benefited from the previous experience. I’ll admit though Doyle got a great swing and may be a great candidate. However, Doyle background as an union organiser with the NTEU may not play as well with a seat like this. Then a seat such as Cooper or Melbourne. Labor were able to pick up Bennelong and Higgins last election and the candidates were more that (Doctor/Lawyer/Director) professional career type.

Disdain and personal unpopularity of Tudge and Morrison are already baked into the 2PP margin. Tudge is gone and Morrison’s no longer PM. On the flip side, Vic Labor performed strongly at the 2022 Vic election in this neck of the woods (Bayswater, Rowville) and would scrape through if the results were replicated in Aston but don’t forget – Dan Andrews is more popular than Albo in Victoria. Also, since Aston wasn’t on Labor’s radar at the federal election, Labor didn’t channel many resources here and so the resulting swing was quite surprising.

Regarding the by-election, I predict UAP, PHON and LDP will either lose votes or won’t run at all. The UAP won’t benefit from Clive’s $100m election campaign this time around. Lockdown and anti-vax anger, which propped up their votes last federal election, has all but dissappated.

@Votante

UAP definitely won’t be running a canidate because the party has been derigstered. I’m pretty sure it also means they can’t be registered again until after the next election because it was derigstered in this parliamentary term.

Nightwatchman, thats incorrect. Why would they deregister if it means they can’t contest 2025? That doesn’t sound very logical.

Nightwatchman is absolutely correct. Yes it was a very silly decision that made no sense but they did it.

here’s the story.

@Daniel T

Daniel T it is correct as I’m going from what has been reported. If you have any sources to back up your argument please post them.

My guess is Clive Palmer is through with politics for the time being. I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes back again but it can’t be through the form of the ‘United Australia Party’ name for the next election.

“A notice published on the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website confirmed the deregistration.

Deregistering the party also means the name United Australia Party will not be able to be used again until after the next federal election.”

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/article/clive-palmers-uap-is-no-more-but-mystery-surrounds-its-demise/79hm2g4e0

Yep, Daniel – Ben and N’watchman are right. Here’s sub-sec (3) of sec 135 of the Cth Electoral Act, that regulates voluntary deregistration:

(3) Where a political party is deregistered under subsection (1), that party, or a party that has a name that so nearly resembles the name of the deregistered party that it is likely to be confused with or mistaken for that name, is ineligible for registration under this Part until after the general election next following the deregistration.

[Read it for yourself at https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s135.html ]

Either Clive doesn’t care any more or he forgot about that little sub-section.

[Or he’s planning to register under yet another different name!]

Who knows what Clive was thinking. Perhaps he intends to register as “The Clive Palmer Party”.

UAP fielded Legislative Council candidates at the Victorian election in November 2022.

UAP/PHON/LDP votes totalled 11% at the federal election. Where they go at the by-election will determine who wins. I suspect that a large chunk will go back to the Liberals (who took a big hit at the federal election whilst everyone else increased their vote).

@ Ben Raue Sorry to hassle again but the link for the Aston by-election on the electoral calendar now links to the 2010 federal election page for Aston.

Ah thanks. I think I’ve finally got it right.

Now it’s the page for the 2013 federal election

The news on the Liberal Party candidate has gotten interesting. If the party decides to parachute in a candidate without a local ballot, Roshena Campbell will almost certainly be the candidate, being well regarded in the admin committee while also being in the hard right faction which will at least placate the largely right-leaning branches in the seat a bit. Of course, she has zero local ties which would annoy many branch members and it possibly risks a local party boycott like what happened to Fiona Martin in Reid which would be extremely problematic given it’s a by-election. I think it’s hard for Ranjana Srivastava to win preselection in both a local ballot or an admin committee parachute scenario given her moderate credentials, being non-local and her reputation of being a failed serial preselection candidate drifting everywhere. She would for sure not be particularly popular among the local branches and the admin committee would rather have Campbell than her. The same goes with Sharn Coombes though I’m not sure of her factional alignment. This is simply not a seat where the moderate faction has much influence. If the preselection goes to a rank-and-file ballot, I think Irene Ling (if she does contest) and Emanuele Cicchiello would among the more favoured to win. Cicchiello is popular among Michael Sukkar’s hard right faction and has strong local ties but has quite a lot of personal controversies so that may worry some of the rank and file and cause some serious headaches in the admin committee if he does win preselection. In a rank-and-file ballot scenario, I can also see a possibility that the right faction is bitterly divided between Cicchiello, Campbell and Ling which may result in Catherine Burnett-Wake getting an unexpected win. Personally, I think Ling is the best option being a local, tolerable to all stakeholders (admin committee, the local branches, and Michael Sukkar’s hard right faction) and also being of Chinese heritage which reflects the large Chinese community in the seat (which is a constituency the party seems desperate to win back but don’t know how) but it’s unclear if she is even going to contest and her support is almost entirely concentrated in the branches based below the Burwood Highway. She also was preselected in the unwinnable 4th position of the North-East Metro Region at the state election but I’m not sure if that’s going to have much impact. I might be missing out on some other potential candidates, but these are the ones I’ve heard about. I could be wrong, but this is my two cents based on what I have heard and understand.

The Age has confirmed Mary Doyle as the Aston by-election candidate.

Sorry forgot to add for Labor.

Anyone seen the latest Albanese comment: that Aston hasn’t a chance of winning the by-election. What the heck is that all about – does anyone know?

@Julia Ann Zabinski

Anthony Albanese is downplaying Labor chances because he doesn’t want it painted as a big blow if Labor loses. Government taking seats off the opposition is a rarity, the last time it happened was at a bye-election in 1920. So I’m not sure why you think Labor is favorites judging by history despite the favorable national polling.

Its been confirmed in the Age Mary Doyle who contested the last federal election as Labor’s candidate for Aston will be the candidate.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will formally announce Mary Doyle as Labor’s candidate for the byelection in the marginal Melbourne seat of Aston on Friday morning.

Labor is hopeful of claiming the seat and increasing its one-seat majority in the House of Representatives, but on Tuesday Albanese told the Labor caucus that an incumbent government had not won a seat from an opposition at a byelection since 1920.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/mary-doyle-to-be-labor-s-candidate-in-aston-20230216-p5cl4l.html

Worth noting while it’s rare to snatch a seat from an opposition, it does happen. Examples include Labor picking up seats like Jeff Kennett and deputy Pat Mcmanara’s seats in the 1999-2002 term.

It also happens in the UK, most recently the Tories picking off Copeland from Labor in 2017.

Not impossible, but the odds are against Labor.

At least Labor have the balls to contest unlike they didn’t in Narracan and North-West Central. With the latter being marginal as well.

Daniel T
The tories also gained Hartlepool off Labor in 2021.

The Libs honestly don’t seem that confident in retaining this seat though it could be simply a ploy so that they can claim a win as long as they retain the seat even if there’s a swing against them. Whereas for Labor, it’s a bit more understandable since governments rarely win seats at by-elections.

Preselection is tentatively set for March 4, with 4 candidates: Emanuele Cicchiello, Catherine Burnett-Wake, Ranjana Srivastava and Roshena Campbell. It’s unclear whether it’s going to be a local rank and file ballot or an admin committee selection. I believe one of the candidates made a deal with Irene Ling to have the support of her branches in the event of a local rank and file ballot though I’m not sure who it is, (if I had to guess it would be Emanuele Cicchiello since they are both from the same faction). If it’s an admin committee selection it’s going to be almost 100% certain Roshena Campbell will be the candidate, given Frydenberg’s endorsement but she doesn’t live anywhere near the electorate and the Liberals cannot afford a Kristina Keneally situation. Ranjana Srivastava also doesn’t live in the electorate but she has worked there so there are some local connections she can emphasise in her pitch. I’m a bit surprised Irene Ling decided to not contest given she is a pretty powerful local powerbroker controlling many local branches and has a lot of local ties but then again some party members aren’t that confident in this seat so perhaps she’s one of them. I still think they are more likely to win though.

Any candidate that doesn’t live in the electorate should be required to move to the electorate if they win, legally.

I will never vote for a candidate in any seat if they don’t live in the electorate unless they promise to relocate, “working here” doesn’t give you connections. And ancestry like Mundine tried to pitch isn’t enough either.

Its more understandable if you are the incumbent and the redistribution pushes your home slightly outside the seat, But my god, someone pass a law.

That would be an absurd law that disallows more than 99% of Australians from contesting any particular electorate.

It is up to the electorate to decide if having someone living outside of it is something they find acceptable, as is the case for any other quality of a candidate like their age, work history, criminal history, etc.

Adda, most people can’t bring themselves to not vote for the party they have always supported. And before you suggest ”they don’t care where they are from” think again, they probably would care if they knew. That’s why people should be educated on the candidates background and history, rather than just voting for the party.

The government would function much better if people voted in competent MP’s that actually know about their communities and have allot to offer for their communities.

I think I am supportive of a “10km rule” which dictates that the candidate must live within 10km (straight line distance) of the electorate in question. Someone might be able to give a better number than 10km (Maybe 15km or something?), but this type of criteria means:
– Country seats (Especially the larger ones like Kennedy or Durack) will more or less force them to live within the electorates (These seats care a lot about local representation).
– Smaller seats like Grayndler and Wentworth would more flexible, as city seats are easier to generalise, and they are less put off (Than country seats) by parachuting. They still shouldn’t be insanely far, and their views should be adjacent to that of the electorate’s (Keneally failed both, living on an island 38km to the nearest point of Fowler, and had made tweets that implied she is bit tough on refugees for the seat’s liking)

For reference, I remember someone in the Pittwater 2023 thread (I think. It may have been another Northern Beaches seat) said that most wouldn’t mind as long as they are from the wider Norther Beaches area.

I will admit this rule wouldn’t be totally perfect either because Pearl Beach (Robertson) is within 10km of Palm Beach (Mackellar), but it is still a good starting point I think though.

Any other hypothetical objections?

If people are happy to elect an ‘outsider’ then that should be up to them. Why pass a law to artificially limit who can and can’t contest a seat, and who the constituents can and can’t vote for?

If the locals don’t want someone who doesn’t live in the electorate, they can make their voice heard at the ballot box.

Talk about fixing a problem that doesn’t exist! If people care about this issue they can vote on that basis. Our voting system is already far more focused on geographic representation than should be necessary, you don’t need to tilt it further.

would i be right in saying that the chinese australian vote in this seat could actually strengthen for labor given easing tensions, the occurrence of diplomatic meetings and a presumed relaxation of trade restrictions? also – would this be the kind of area where peter dutton’s hard-right persona would be a liability? are liberals here mainly small-l liberals or from duttons national right faction?

That’s a rule that parties might consider informally adopting internally as a learning from Fowler 2022, but shouldn’t be a formal one applying to everyone.

Polling day confirmed as April 1.

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/About_the_House_News/Media_Releases/By-election_for_Aston

Well given the early date, admin committee is likely to choose the candidate rather than a rank and file ballot. Interesting to see how that plays out with the party members in the electorate and the voters.

@Louis Well that’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility, given Morrison and some Liberal members are still spewing out inflammatory rhetoric towards Beijing while under Albanese relations with China have somewhat normalised a bit. Granted there are some MPs who are desperately trying to improve their vote among Chinese Australians but the party as a whole is not making it easy. This is not a small-L Liberal area though but at the same time not a white working class area where right-wing populism would work. I’d say it’s halfway in between the two (kind of like Menzies but a little bit more socially conservative). The party members here are very much generally part of Dutton’s National Right.

i think that there will be a negligible swing to the liberals here (1-2%). while i think that there will be a reversal of the anti-tudge swings at the last election, i believe that the chinese vote in this electorate could swing even further to labor with peter dutton as leader. also, if roshena campbell is parachuted in voters could view her as an outsider which could effect her ability to effectively campaign on local issues. i think if roshena campbell is preselected there will be essentially no swing. also this area seems to be swinging to labor on a state level so it will be interesting to see if federally those patterns are repeated

for all you people saying about the the chinese sentiment fro the liberals because of the rhetoric against china most chinese australians are here because they dont like the chinese govt too. the libs arent anti chinese. they are anti chinese governemtn or anti dictatorship just because albo sucks the sack from an oppresive regime shouldnt be a good reason to vote. and anyone who supports the chinese governement is a hypocrite because they are supporting a govt that doesnt approve of democracy and then using democracy to get rid of the people who make a stand against, that and @ Leon im pretty sure a candidate must live in the electorate but even if they dont who would vote for someone who doesnt live in the place they claim to represent. if my local candidate didnt live here i wouldnt vote tfor them and noone should parties would have learned this from what happened with KK if you dont have a local candidate the swing voters wont vote for them

As a resident here, would say the LNP will hold on with a small swing against them with the seat having a buffer of about 0.8 after the by-eection. There is still a lot of anger here with Tudge with people not pleased about voting again in such a sort period of time. This electorate is quite established so it won’t be as sensitive to the rate rises unlike seats further out.