Ginninderra – ACT 2012

Incumbent MLAs

• Meredith Hunter (GRN), since 2008.
• Alistair Coe (LIB), since 2008.
• Mary Porter (ALP), since 2004.
• Vicki Dunne (LIB), since 2001.
• Chris Bourke (ALP), since 2011*.

*Bourke filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation in May 2011 of Chief Minister Jon Stanhope, who had been Labor Member for Ginninderra since 1998.

Geography
Northwestern Canberra. Ginninderra covers the district of Belconnen as well as small parts of Gungahlin and the village of Hall. Ginninderra specifically covers the Canberra suburbs of Aranda, Belconnen, Bruce, Charnwood, Cook, Crace, Dunlop, Evatt, Florey, Flynn, Fraser,Giralang, Hawker, Higgins, Holt, Kaleen, Latham, Lawson, Macgregor, Macquarie, McKellar, Melba, Nicholls, Palmerston, Page, Scullin, Spence and Weetangera.

History
The electorate of Ginninderra was created in 1995, when the ACT electoral system was changed to introduce multi-member districts for the first time. The seat covers almost exactly the same area as it did in 1995, having undergone two minor redistributions prior to the 2001 and 2012 elections.

The first election, in 1995, saw the ALP and the Liberals each win two seats, with the final seat going to the Greens’ Lucy Horodny. The ALP elected Wayne Berry and Roberta McRae. Both had held seats previously: Berry since 1989, and McRae since 1992. The Liberal Party elected Harold Hird and Bill Stefaniak, both new members of the Legislative Assembly. Hird had previously served in the advisory House of Assembly from 1975 to 1986.

Berry served as Leader of the Opposition from 1997 until shortly after the 1998 election.

In 1998, Berry, Hird and Stefaniak were re-elected. McRae was defeated by fellow Labor candidate Jon Stanhope. Greens MLA Lucy Horodny were defeated by independent Dave Rugendyke, elected on the same social conservative ticket as sitting Brindabella MLA Paul Osborne.

Shortly after the 1998 election, Stanhope was elected as the new Leader of the Opposition, succeeding Berry.

At the 2001 election, Berry, Stanhope and Stefaniak were all re-elected. Hird ran for re-election but was defeated by fellow Liberal Vicki Dunne in an incredibly close result. Rugendyke was replaced by Democrats candidate Roslyn Dundas.

Following the 2001 election Jon Stanhope became Chief Minister, leading a minority Labor government. Berry was elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, a role he held until his retirement.

In 2004, all four major party sitting MLAs were re-elected. In a result that helped Stanhope form a majority government, Dundas was defeated by a third Labor candidate, Mary Porter.

Ginninderra MLA Bill Stefaniak served as Leader of the Opposition until 2006 to 2007, never leading the Liberal Party to an election.

At the 2008 election, Stefaniak and Berry both retired. Sitting MLAs Stanhope, Porter and Dunne were re-elected. Alistair Coe was elected as the second Liberal MLA (although he outpolled Dunne). The ALP failed to retain their third seat, with the final seat going to Greens candidate Meredith Hunter.

Shortly after the election, Hunter was elected as ‘Parliamentary Convenor’ of the ACT Greens, effectively the party’s leader. The Stanhope government had lost its majority, but the Greens agreed to support the Stanhope government in office.

In 2011, Jon Stanhope announced his retirement, both as Chief Minister and as Member for Ginninderra. He was replaced on a countback by the ALP’s Chris Bourke.

Candidates

Group A (The Greens)

• Meredith Hunter, Greens leader and sitting MLA since 2008.
• James Higgins
• Hannah Parris

Group B (Australian Motorist Party)

• Chic Henry
• Darryl Walford

Group C (Labor)

Group D (Liberal Democratic Party)

• Mustafa Jawadi
• Matt Thompson

Group E (Marion Lê Social Justice Party)

• Majlinda Bitani
• Nehmat Nana Jbeili
• Karamia Lê
• Marion Lê
• Kate Reynolds

Group F (Liberal)

• Alistair Coe, sitting MLA since 2008.
• Vicki Dunne, sitting MLA since 2001.
• Jacob Vadakkedathu
• Merinda Nash
• Matt Watts

Group G (Bullet Train for Canberra)

• Chris Bucknell
• Tony Halton

Ungrouped

• Darren Churchill
• Emmanuel Ezekiel-Hart
• Norm Gingell
• Glen Takkenberg

Political situation
Both major parties have won two seats in Ginninderra at every election since 1995, while the final seat has alternated between Greens, Democrats, independents and Labor.

If there is a swing from the Liberal Party to Labor, there is potential for the Liberals to lose one of their seats to Labor. The ALP polled 2.41 quotas, while the Liberal Party polled 1.67. Labor candidate David Peebles came within 0.28 quotas on the final count from overtaking Liberal MLA Vicki Dunne.

If the Liberal Party gains a swing compared to Labor, it will likely just solidify the Liberal Party’s second seat. It is also worth noting that in 2008 the ALP polled strongly in part due to Jon Stanhope’s presence. His absence could inflate the anti-Labor swing.

There is also a chance of one of the major parties gaining a third seat by defeating Greens leader Meredith Hunter. The Liberal Party are a long way from being competitive for a third seat, but a swing to the ALP could see the party regain that final seat.

The Greens polled 0.83 quotas in 2008. After four years as Greens leader, Hunter should solidify her position, but her position is certainly not safe.

2008 result

2008 preference distribution
Jon Stanhope was elected on primary votes, with 1.34 quotas. If you fast forward until there are eight candidates remaining, 3 Labor, 3 Liberal, 1 Green and one independent:

• Cirson (ALP) – 0.42 quotas
• Peebles (ALP) – 0.44
• Porter (ALP) – 0.62
• Hunter (GRN) – 0.96
• Coe (LIB) – 0.78
• Tokaji (LIB) – 0.40
• Dunne (LIB) – 0.61
• Parton (IND) – 0.53

Tokaji and then Cirson were eliminated, which put Meredith Hunter of the Greens 43 votes above quota. After her small surplus was distributed, the final five candidates for three seats were:

• Peebles (ALP) – 0.60
• Porter (ALP) – 0.80
• Coe (LIB) – 0.97
• Dunne (LIB) – 0.78
• Parton (IND) – 0.57

Independent Mark Parton was eliminated, with his votes putting Alistair Coe over quota, and pushed Dunne and Porter further ahead of Peebles.

• Peebles (ALP) – 0.65
• Porter (ALP) – 0.89
• Coe (LIB) – 1.08
• Dunne (LIB) – 0.88

After Coe’s surplus is distributed, you are left with:

• Peebles (ALP) – 0.66
• Porter (ALP) – 0.89
• Dunne (LIB) – 0.94

Thus Peebles was eliminated, and Porter and Dunne were elected to the final two seats. The ALP was 0.28 quotas short of winning a third seat.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ginninderra have been divided into four areas:

• Central – Charnwood, Evatt, Fraser and Melba.
• North – The village of Hall and the Gungahlin suburbs of Nicholson and Palmerston.
• South East – Aranda, Belconnen, Bruce, Giralang, Kaleen and Macquarie.
• South West – Florey, Higgins, Holt, Latham, Macgregor, Page, Scullin and Weetangera.

The ALP vote peaked at 40-43% in the three areas in the Belconnen area, compared to 37% in the North. The Liberal vote is much higher at almost 40% in the north, compared to 25-27% in the centre, south west and south east. The Greens vote peaked at 17.8% in the south east. The Greens vote was lowest in the north at 9.2%.