Yerrabi – ACT 2024

Incumbent MPs

  • Andrew Braddock (Greens), since 2020.
  • Leanne Castley (Liberal), since 2020.
  • James Milligan (Liberal), since 2021. Previously 2016-2020.1
  • Suzanne Orr (Labor), since 2016.
  • Michael Pettersson (Labor), since 2016.

1Milligan filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Alistair Coe in March 2021.

Geography
Yerrabi covers the northern suburbs of Canberra, including the entire Gungahlin district, parts of the Belconnen district and the town of Hall. Yerrabi covers the suburbs of Gungahlin, Forde, Bonner, Ngunnawal, Kaleen, Mitchell and Franklin.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The electorate of Yerrabi was created in 2016 out of parts of the former electorates of Molonglo and Ginninderra.

Yerrabi elected three Labor and two Liberal MLAs in 2016.

Labor lost their third seat to the Greens in 2020.

Candidates

  • Labor
  • Liberal
  • Greens
  • Independents For Canberra
  • Belco Party
  • Family First
  • First Nation Party
    • Cooper Pike

    • Assessment
    This electorate was the best for the Liberal Party in 2020 – a relatively small swing would have likely seen a third Liberal win instead of the Greens candidate. That seat will be in play in 2024.

    2020 result

    2020 election
    Party Votes % Quota Swing
    Liberal 21,699 40.6 2.435 +4.9
    Labor 18,262 34.2 2.050 -10.5
    Greens 5,440 10.2 0.611 +3.5
    Democratic Labour 2,517 4.7 0.282 +4.7
    David Pollard 1,729 3.2 0.194 +0.9
    Progressives 1,446 2.7 0.162 +2.7
    Others 855 1.6 0.096 +1.6
    Animal Justice 701 1.3 0.079 +0.4
    Sustainable Australia 694 1.3 0.078 0.0
    Federation Party 116 0.2 0.013 +0.2
    Informal 804 1.5

    2020 preference flows
    Let’s fast forward until there are nine candidates left in the race. This includes four Labor candidates, three Liberal candidates and two Greens candidates. Liberal candidate Alistair Coe had already reached quota for the first seat:

        • Michael Pettersson (ALP) – 0.715 quotas
        • Leanne Castley (LIB) – 0.643
        • Suzanne Orr (ALP) – 0.610
        • Andrew Braddock (GRN) – 0.585
        • James Milligan (LIB) – 0.550
        • Deepak-Raj Gupta (ALP) – 0.540
        • Georgia Phillips (ALP) – 0.487
        • Jacob Vadakkedathu (LIB) – 0.442
        • Mainul Haque (GRN) – 0.320

    Haque’s preferences flowed strongly to fellow Greens candidate Braddock, pushing him to the lead:

        • Braddock (GRN) – 0.787
        • Pettersson (ALP) – 0.732
        • Castley (LIB) – 0.652
        • Orr (ALP) – 0.626
        • Milligan (LIB) – 0.562
        • Gupta (ALP) – 0.561
        • Phillips (ALP) – 0.498
        • Vadakkedathu (LIB) – 0.451

    Vadakkedathu’s preferences flowed strongly to the other Liberals:

        • Braddock (GRN) – 0.812
        • Castley (LIB) – 0.806
        • Pettersson (ALP) – 0.747
        • Milligan (LIB) – 0.716
        • Orr (ALP) – 0.641
        • Gupta (ALP) – 0.614
        • Phillips (ALP) – 0.507

    Phillips’ preferences flowed to the other Labor candidates, particularly strongly to Orr:

        • Pettersson (ALP) – 0.879
        • Braddock (GRN) – 0.848
        • Orr (ALP) – 0.846
        • Castley (LIB) – 0.826
        • Milligan (LIB) – 0.724
        • Gupta (ALP) – 0.694

    Gupta’s preferences elected the two remaining Labor candidates to the second and third seats.

        • Pettersson (ALP) – 1.122
        • Orr (ALP) – 1.098
        • Braddock (GRN) – 0.912
        • Castley (LIB) – 0.853
        • Milligan (LIB) – 0.754

    The surplus from the two Labor candidates strongly flowed to Braddock, electing him to the fourth seat. Braddock was left with a small surplus, but not enough to make a difference between the two remaining Liberal candidates:

        • Braddock (GRN) – 1.033
        • Castley (LIB) – 0.870
        • Milligan (LIB) – 0.774

    Castley ended up defeating Milligan by 0.096 quotas.

        • Castley (LIB) – 0.878
        • Milligan (LIB) – 0.782

    Booth breakdown

    Polling places in Yerrabi have been split into four parts: booths in Gungahlin have been split into central, north-east and north-west, while those in the Belconnen district have been grouped as “south”. A large share of the vote was cast at two pre-poll centres in central Gungahlin so they have been grouped together separately.

    The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in the Gungahlin pre-poll booths and all four of the election day booth groups, with a primary vote ranging from 36.1% in the south to 42.9% in the Gungahlin pre-poll booths.

    Labor’s primary vote ranged from 32.3% in the north-west to 37% in the north-east.

    The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.8% in the Gungahlin pre-poll booths to 13% in the south.

    Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
    Gungahlin pre-poll 42.9 34.4 8.8 23,874 44.7
    Central 38.9 34.4 11.2 9,123 17.1
    North-West 42.6 32.3 10.7 2,764 5.2
    North-East 39.9 37.0 9.8 2,367 4.4
    South 36.1 32.8 13.0 2,085 3.9
    Other pre-poll 37.3 35.1 11.2 8,005 15.0
    Other votes 39.2 31.7 11.7 5,241 9.8

    Election results in Yerrabi at the 2020 ACT election
    Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party and the Greens.


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    8 COMMENTS

    1. Interesting news with Liberals changing Deputy Leader, changing from Jeremy Hanson (Murrumbidgee) to Leanne Castley (this seat). This is alluded to a shift in power, with Hanson having views that are best defined as right and at odds with current leader Elizabeth Lee, who is more moderate. On the other side, I think the Liberals did this for strategic (if I’m giving them too much credit) reasons. Yerrabi has the lowest Greens vote, which sees that seat very marginal and a needed Liberal gain, if they are to ever form government again in ACT. However, the downside is the loss of Alistair Coe’s personal vote and having Leanne as deputy will increase her profile her to shore up that vote. Jeremy’s personal vote of 15.3% was the 4th best and Alistair’s 16.2% the 2nd best in the last election. Risky and could work, as long as it doesn’t alienate Jeremy, as the Liberals will need his profile in Murrumbidgee.

      Full article found at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-04/canberra-liberals-jeremy-hanson-dumped-as-deputy-leader/103184184

      As an aside, I can see the Liberals, at best gaining 3 seats (Yerrabi, Brindabella and Kurrajong all from GRN) to give ALP 10, LIB 12, GRN 3. I just can’t see how the Liberals get that 4th seat for Government, this far out, but anything can change.

    2. Leanne Castley is also from the far right of the Liberals but perhaps has less on record illustrating that than Hanson.

      I remember the media reporting the Liberals won 3 on election night shortly before the interim distribution revealed that the Greens won instead, and beyond reasonable doubt too (not a nail biter like Kurrajong and Brindabella). Braddock should be able to hang on without too much trouble as I don’t see Labor going back to 3 easily, nor Liberals being better positioned than in 2020.

      Politics Obsessed – The Liberals easiest path to majority is winning 3 in Yerrabi, Murrumbidgee and Brindabella and win back their 2nd in Kurrajong, but I agree it’s unlikely. Their path to government involves pro-Liberal independents and third parties being elected. Fiona Carrick who came somewhat close to threatening the Greens seat in Murrumbidgee is a NIMBY that likely would have sided with the Liberals over Labor in a balance of power situation. Liberals will never get 3 in Ginninderra but on several occasions there’s been a well funded right wing minor party trying to turn the last seat right wing (Belco Party being the most recent example). That can of course backfire horribly and we almost got a 3-1-1 result in Ginninderra.

    3. John and PO, I wonder if the Greens may be more open to backing a minority Liberal government if the numbers do end up as you indicated (12-10) with the Liberals having more seats. The Liberals could argue on merit if their primary vote is also substantially higher than Labor’s (at least 3-4% more and a base vote >35%, something like a 38-33 split or 43-37).

      Of course, it would also depend on the campaign the Liberals run on. If they focus on a service-based strategy that would obviously be better than if they were to use a more social issue (anti-woke) type campaign.

    4. The issue in the ACT is that there is no working class, little rural areas so an anti-woke strategy will not really work. The only exception is there is a Christian Vote in the ACT, that is why you get leaders like Alistair Coe who is religious and anti-abortion etc but accepts Climate action etc. An anti-climate action will not work with a generally affluent and educated demographic and race-based appeals will be less likely to work in a community with high degrees of social cohesion.

    5. Agree Nimalan, also campaigns have to be fought using a more serious or fact-based strategy. I believe Alistair Coe whilst running a cost-of-living issues campaign in 2020 tried to be like Boris Johnson and use fancy gimmicks which didn’t appeal at all to the more well-educated voters of Canberra.

    8. Greens look vulnerable – but the Labor vote took a big hit in 2020 – if it recovers to any degree – it might ensure the Greens hold this seat. Liberals could be hit by a moderate Independents vote

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