Yerrabi – ACT 2024

Interesting news with Liberals changing Deputy Leader, changing from Jeremy Hanson (Murrumbidgee) to Leanne Castley (this seat). This is alluded to a shift in power, with Hanson having views that are best defined as right and at odds with current leader Elizabeth Lee, who is more moderate. On the other side, I think the Liberals did this for strategic (if I’m giving them too much credit) reasons. Yerrabi has the lowest Greens vote, which sees that seat very marginal and a needed Liberal gain, if they are to ever form government again in ACT. However, the downside is the loss of Alistair Coe’s personal vote and having Leanne as deputy will increase her profile her to shore up that vote. Jeremy’s personal vote of 15.3% was the 4th best and Alistair’s 16.2% the 2nd best in the last election. Risky and could work, as long as it doesn’t alienate Jeremy, as the Liberals will need his profile in Murrumbidgee.

Full article found at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-04/canberra-liberals-jeremy-hanson-dumped-as-deputy-leader/103184184

As an aside, I can see the Liberals, at best gaining 3 seats (Yerrabi, Brindabella and Kurrajong all from GRN) to give ALP 10, LIB 12, GRN 3. I just can’t see how the Liberals get that 4th seat for Government, this far out, but anything can change.

Leanne Castley is also from the far right of the Liberals but perhaps has less on record illustrating that than Hanson.

I remember the media reporting the Liberals won 3 on election night shortly before the interim distribution revealed that the Greens won instead, and beyond reasonable doubt too (not a nail biter like Kurrajong and Brindabella). Braddock should be able to hang on without too much trouble as I don’t see Labor going back to 3 easily, nor Liberals being better positioned than in 2020.

Politics Obsessed – The Liberals easiest path to majority is winning 3 in Yerrabi, Murrumbidgee and Brindabella and win back their 2nd in Kurrajong, but I agree it’s unlikely. Their path to government involves pro-Liberal independents and third parties being elected. Fiona Carrick who came somewhat close to threatening the Greens seat in Murrumbidgee is a NIMBY that likely would have sided with the Liberals over Labor in a balance of power situation. Liberals will never get 3 in Ginninderra but on several occasions there’s been a well funded right wing minor party trying to turn the last seat right wing (Belco Party being the most recent example). That can of course backfire horribly and we almost got a 3-1-1 result in Ginninderra.

John and PO, I wonder if the Greens may be more open to backing a minority Liberal government if the numbers do end up as you indicated (12-10) with the Liberals having more seats. The Liberals could argue on merit if their primary vote is also substantially higher than Labor’s (at least 3-4% more and a base vote >35%, something like a 38-33 split or 43-37).

Of course, it would also depend on the campaign the Liberals run on. If they focus on a service-based strategy that would obviously be better than if they were to use a more social issue (anti-woke) type campaign.

The issue in the ACT is that there is no working class, little rural areas so an anti-woke strategy will not really work. The only exception is there is a Christian Vote in the ACT, that is why you get leaders like Alistair Coe who is religious and anti-abortion etc but accepts Climate action etc. An anti-climate action will not work with a generally affluent and educated demographic and race-based appeals will be less likely to work in a community with high degrees of social cohesion.

Agree Nimalan, also campaigns have to be fought using a more serious or fact-based strategy. I believe Alistair Coe whilst running a cost-of-living issues campaign in 2020 tried to be like Boris Johnson and use fancy gimmicks which didn’t appeal at all to the more well-educated voters of Canberra.

Any polling in the A.C.T?

@spacefish yea it was on oct 14 🙂

Greens look vulnerable – but the Labor vote took a big hit in 2020 – if it recovers to any degree – it might ensure the Greens hold this seat. Liberals could be hit by a moderate Independents vote

Greens are better positioned than in 2020 thanks to incumbency and Palestine. They’ve even sometimes implied they could win a second seat here as recently as a few weeks ago – not seeing it but expecting a status quo result

@ Blue not John,
You are correct there is a significant Muslim community here and will be the most Muslim part of Canberra. It is mainly South Asian muslims.

Aside from Kurrajong where they narrowly hold 2 seats the Greens have no chance of a second seat in any of the other electorates this time round.

The Greens had a strategy of preselecting 2 lead candidates per electorate hoping to repeat what they pulled off in Kurrajong 2020. This was before the scandal in Brindabella.

To some extent they’re sticking to it – Greens campaign materials feature two candidates (the exact same way as Kurrajong 2020) even though 3+ are running in each seat. In a recent episode of Serious Danger (Greens podcast), Rebecca Vassarotti said they were aiming for 8 seats, flagging Ginninderra and Yerrabi as the most likely pick ups – all with a view to a Greens led government. This is the most sensible way to 8 – Jo Clay has been a standout performer in Ginninderra while the right there is heavily fragmented (with 3-1-1 nearly happening in 2020), and there’s the possibility of a big swing to Greens among Muslims and other multicultural voters (seen at council elections) that would be most pronounced in Yerrabi.

But then, their more recent fundraising email talked about the importance of retaining all their current seats. So I think Doug is right.

With parties like IFC and Belco Party as well as DLP and FF, will there be more vote splitting on the centre-right or right-wing vote? Could these parties split the vote and make it harder for the Libs to score a third seat?

@Votante it’s quite unlikely that they’ll get even a slightly significant vote share let alone stop the Liberals from winning seats. Also, they would preference the Liberals.

I mentioned on another thread that I am interstate at present. Is there anyone on the site based in Yerrabi (or at least Canberra) who can tell me how things are going down there?

@ Blue not John is based in Canberra but not Yerrabi

Thank you, Nimalan. It appears though that there’s little interest in my part of the world :), or at least that the action is now over on the main thread.

@ Ryoma,
There is actually some discussion on Yerrabi on the main thread. The main thing pointed out in the higher Muslim community. My gut instinct is that it is a status quo result and the main action is the other 4 electorates.

No change

2 lib 1 lab 1 ind. Lab greens fight for last place

@Blue Not John was correct in his predictions. Yerrabi and Ginnadera where the only two electorates where the Greens increased their primary vote. Both electorates are more CALD than the rest of Canberra. In Yerrabi it maybe the case that the Muslim vote which is around 6% helped drive a swing to the Greens. Maybe the swing to the Greens in NSW council election in Outer Western Sydney was evidence of that whilst the Greens went backwards in Randwick and the inner West.

Yerrabi was also a disappointing result for the Libs despite being a mortgage belt growth area where inflation and interest rates will be hurting they did not capitalize on it and went backwards.