Murrumbidgee – ACT 2024

Incumbent MPs

• Ed Cocks (Liberal), since 2022.¹
• Emma Davidson (Greens), since 2020.
• Jeremy Hanson (Liberal), since 2008.
• Marisa Paterson (Labor), since 2020.
• Chris Steel (Labor), since 2016.

¹Cocks filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Giulia Jones in June 2022.

• Geography
• Redistribution
• History
• Candidates
• Assessment
• 2020 result
• 2020 preference flows
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography
Murrumbidgee covers the south-western suburbs of Canberra, including the Weston Creek and Woden Valley districts, and parts of South Canberra. Key suburbs include Mawson, Farrer, Pearce, Woden, Lyons, Hughes, Curtin, Stirling, Chapman, Weston Creek, Duffy, Holder, Deakin, Forrest, Red Hill and Yarralumla.

Redistribution
Murrumbidgee shifted north, losing the remainder of Kambah to Brindabella, and gaining Forrest and Red Hill from Kurrajong. These changes boosted the Liberal Party and reduced the Labor vote, and switches the top-polling party from Labor to Liberal.

History

The electorate of Murrumbidgee was created in 2016 out of parts of the former electorates of Molonglo and Brindabella.

The Labor and Liberal parties each won two seats in 2016, while the final seat was won by the Greens. This result was repeated in 2020.

Candidates

Assessment
The final seat in Murrumbidgee was decided by a clear margin, but if there is a swing back to the right either the second Labor seat or the Greens seat could be in play. The relatively strong performance of Fiona Carrick as an ungrouped independent also shows the potential for candidates outside of the Assembly parties to potentially threaten for the fifth seat in the future.

2020 result

2020 preference flows

Let’s fast forward until there are eleven candidates left in the race. This includes four Liberal candidates, four Labor candidates, two Greens candidates and one independent. No candidate has reached quota, although one Liberal was very close to quota.

• • • Jeremy Hanson (LIB) – 0.998 quotas
    • Chris Steel (ALP) – 0.926
    • Emma Davidson (GRN) – 0.572
    • Fiona Carrick (IND) – 0.553
    • Marisa Paterson (ALP) – 0.545
    • Bec Cody (ALP) – 0.489
    • Giulia Jones (LIB) – 0.478
    • Amardeep Singh (LIB) – 0.421
    • Ed Cocks (LIB) – 0.356
    • Tim Dobson (ALP) – 0.312
    • Tjanara Goreng Goreng (GRN) – 0.279

Goreng Goreng’s preferences flowed very strongly to her fellow Greens candidate:

• • • Hanson (LIB) – 1.000
    • Steel (ALP) – 0.937
    • Davidson (GRN) – 0.780
    • Carrick (IND) – 0.561
    • Paterson (ALP) – 0.558
    • Cody (ALP) – 0.504
    • Jones (LIB) – 0.480
    • Singh (LIB) – 0.423
    • Cocks (LIB) – 0.357
    • Dobson (ALP) – 0.320

Dobson’s preferences flowed to the remaining Labor candidates, pushing Steel over quota and pushing the remaining Labor candidates ahead of Carrick:

• • • Steel (ALP) – 1.035
    • Davidson (GRN) – 0.800
    • Paterson (ALP) – 0.646
    • Cody (ALP) – 0.582
    • Carrick (IND) – 0.569
    • Jones (LIB) – 0.484
    • Singh (LIB) – 0.429
    • Cocks (LIB) – 0.360

Steel’s surplus boosted the two remaining Labor candidates slightly further:

• • • Davidson (GRN) – 0.803
    • Paterson (ALP) – 0.661
    • Cody (ALP) – 0.597
    • Carrick (IND) – 0.570
    • Jones (LIB) – 0.485
    • Singh (LIB) – 0.429
    • Cocks (LIB) – 0.361

Cocks’ preferences were particularly favourable to Jones, pushing her into the top five:

• • • Davidson (GRN) – 0.812
    • Paterson (ALP) – 0.672
    • Jones (LIB) – 0.662
    • Cody (ALP) – 0.605
    • Carrick (IND) – 0.581
    • Singh (LIB) – 0.551

Singh’s preferences elected Jones:

• • • Jones (LIB) – 1.083
    • Davidson (GRN) – 0.829
    • Paterson (ALP) – 0.694
    • Cody (ALP) – 0.621
    • Carrick (IND) – 0.603

About half of Jones’ surplus flowed to Carrick:

• • • Davidson (GRN) – 0.842
    • Paterson (ALP) – 0.706
    • Carrick (IND) – 0.643
    • Cody (ALP) – 0.630

Cody’s preferences elected Paterson to the fourth seat, but also gave Davidson a large boost, enough that Paterson’s surplus couldn’t change the final outcome.

• • • Paterson (ALP) – 1.153
    • Davidson (GRN) – 0.911
    • Carrick (IND) – 0.668

Davidson’s final margin over Carrick was quite substantial, about 0.345 quotas:

• • • Davidson (GRN) – 1.038
    • Carrick (IND) – 0.693

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Murrumbidgee have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Weston Creek area have been grouped as “west”. The inner south has been grouped as “north-east” while those in the Woden area have been split into “central” and “south”.

Labor topped the poll in three out of four areas, with a primary vote ranging from 30.1% in the north-east to 37.1% in the south.

The Liberal vote was highest in the north-east, with the vote ranging from 32.4% in the south to 42.9% in the north-east.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote of between 11-12% in three areas, and 13.2% in the north-east.

Independent candidate Fiona Carrick had a primary vote ranging from 6.8% in the west to 9.2% in the south. The north-east includes areas previously in Kurrajong, so it has her vote as just 2.7% in the area, but she polled 5% and 9% in the booths already in Murrumbidgee in this seat.

Election results in Brindabella at the 2020 ACT election
Toggle between primary votes for the Labor Party, Liberal Party and the Greens.

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