Murrumbidgee – ACT 2024

Incumbent MPs

  • Ed Cocks (Liberal), since 2022.1
  • Emma Davidson (Greens), since 2020.
  • Jeremy Hanson (Liberal), since 2008.
  • Marisa Paterson (Labor), since 2020.
  • Chris Steel (Labor), since 2016.

1Cocks filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Giulia Jones in June 2022.

Geography
Murrumbidgee covers the south-western suburbs of Canberra, including the Weston Creek and Woden Valley districts, and parts of South Canberra. Key suburbs include Mawson, Farrer, Pearce, Woden, Lyons, Hughes, Curtin, Stirling, Chapman, Weston Creek, Duffy, Holder, Deakin, Forrest, Red Hill and Yarralumla.

Redistribution
Murrumbidgee shifted north, losing the remainder of Kambah to Brindabella, and gaining Forrest and Red Hill from Kurrajong. These changes boosted the Liberal Party and reduced the Labor vote, and switches the top-polling party from Labor to Liberal.

History

The electorate of Murrumbidgee was created in 2016 out of parts of the former electorates of Molonglo and Brindabella.

The Labor and Liberal parties each won two seats in 2016, while the final seat was won by the Greens. This result was repeated in 2020.

Candidates

  • A – Labor
  • B – Independents for Canberra
  • C – Family First
  • D – Fiona Carrick Independents
  • E – Liberal
  • F – Animal Justice
    • Gwenda Griffiths
    • Ashleigh Griffiths-Smith
  • G – Greens
  • Ungrouped
    • Rima Diab

    • Assessment
    The final seat in Murrumbidgee was decided by a clear margin, but if there is a swing back to the right either the second Labor seat or the Greens seat could be in play. The relatively strong performance of Fiona Carrick as an ungrouped independent also shows the potential for candidates outside of the Assembly parties to potentially threaten for the fifth seat in the future.

    2020 result

    2020 election Redistribution
    Party Votes % Quota Swing % Quota
    Liberal 19,122 35.6 2.134 -8.3 36.0 2.158
    Labor 19,382 36.1 2.163 +2.7 35.7 2.139
    Greens 6,303 11.7 0.703 +0.9 11.8 0.708
    Fiona Carrick 3,783 7.0 0.422 +7.0 6.8 0.409
    Progressives 1,451 2.7 0.162 +2.7 3.0 0.177
    Animal Justice 1,077 2.0 0.120 0.0 1.9 0.117
    Sustainable Australia 835 1.6 0.093 +0.3 1.6 0.093
    Climate Change Justice 671 1.2 0.075 +1.2 1.3 0.077
    Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 761 1.4 0.085 +1.4 1.2 0.074
    Others 369 0.7 0.041 +0.7 0.8 0.047
    Informal 641 1.2

    2020 preference flows

    Let’s fast forward until there are eleven candidates left in the race. This includes four Liberal candidates, four Labor candidates, two Greens candidates and one independent. No candidate has reached quota, although one Liberal was very close to quota.

        • Jeremy Hanson (LIB) – 0.998 quotas
        • Chris Steel (ALP) – 0.926
        • Emma Davidson (GRN) – 0.572
        • Fiona Carrick (IND) – 0.553
        • Marisa Paterson (ALP) – 0.545
        • Bec Cody (ALP) – 0.489
        • Giulia Jones (LIB) – 0.478
        • Amardeep Singh (LIB) – 0.421
        • Ed Cocks (LIB) – 0.356
        • Tim Dobson (ALP) – 0.312
        • Tjanara Goreng Goreng (GRN) – 0.279

    Goreng Goreng’s preferences flowed very strongly to her fellow Greens candidate:

        • Hanson (LIB) – 1.000
        • Steel (ALP) – 0.937
        • Davidson (GRN) – 0.780
        • Carrick (IND) – 0.561
        • Paterson (ALP) – 0.558
        • Cody (ALP) – 0.504
        • Jones (LIB) – 0.480
        • Singh (LIB) – 0.423
        • Cocks (LIB) – 0.357
        • Dobson (ALP) – 0.320

    Dobson’s preferences flowed to the remaining Labor candidates, pushing Steel over quota and pushing the remaining Labor candidates ahead of Carrick:

        • Steel (ALP) – 1.035
        • Davidson (GRN) – 0.800
        • Paterson (ALP) – 0.646
        • Cody (ALP) – 0.582
        • Carrick (IND) – 0.569
        • Jones (LIB) – 0.484
        • Singh (LIB) – 0.429
        • Cocks (LIB) – 0.360

    Steel’s surplus boosted the two remaining Labor candidates slightly further:

        • Davidson (GRN) – 0.803
        • Paterson (ALP) – 0.661
        • Cody (ALP) – 0.597
        • Carrick (IND) – 0.570
        • Jones (LIB) – 0.485
        • Singh (LIB) – 0.429
        • Cocks (LIB) – 0.361

    Cocks’ preferences were particularly favourable to Jones, pushing her into the top five:

        • Davidson (GRN) – 0.812
        • Paterson (ALP) – 0.672
        • Jones (LIB) – 0.662
        • Cody (ALP) – 0.605
        • Carrick (IND) – 0.581
        • Singh (LIB) – 0.551

    Singh’s preferences elected Jones:

        • Jones (LIB) – 1.083
        • Davidson (GRN) – 0.829
        • Paterson (ALP) – 0.694
        • Cody (ALP) – 0.621
        • Carrick (IND) – 0.603

    About half of Jones’ surplus flowed to Carrick:

        • Davidson (GRN) – 0.842
        • Paterson (ALP) – 0.706
        • Carrick (IND) – 0.643
        • Cody (ALP) – 0.630

    Cody’s preferences elected Paterson to the fourth seat, but also gave Davidson a large boost, enough that Paterson’s surplus couldn’t change the final outcome.

        • Paterson (ALP) – 1.153
        • Davidson (GRN) – 0.911
        • Carrick (IND) – 0.668

    Davidson’s final margin over Carrick was quite substantial, about 0.345 quotas:

        • Davidson (GRN) – 1.038
        • Carrick (IND) – 0.693

    Booth breakdown

    Polling places in Murrumbidgee have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Weston Creek area have been grouped as “west”. The inner south has been grouped as “north-east” while those in the Woden area have been split into “central” and “south”.

    Labor topped the poll in three out of four areas, with a primary vote ranging from 30.1% in the north-east to 37.1% in the south.

    The Liberal vote was highest in the north-east, with the vote ranging from 32.4% in the south to 42.9% in the north-east.

    The Greens came third, with a primary vote of between 11-12% in three areas, and 13.2% in the north-east.

    Independent candidate Fiona Carrick had a primary vote ranging from 6.8% in the west to 9.2% in the south. The north-east includes areas previously in Kurrajong, so it has her vote as just 2.7% in the area, but she polled 5% and 9% in the booths already in Murrumbidgee in this seat.

    Voter group ALP % LIB % GRN % Carrick Total votes % of votes
    Central 36.1 34.0 11.9 9.0 17,678 33.5
    West 36.5 36.1 11.4 6.8 16,013 30.3
    North-East 30.1 42.9 13.2 2.7 2,886 5.5
    South 37.1 32.4 11.6 9.2 2,221 4.2
    Other pre-poll 36.4 37.0 12.2 4.0 8,149 15.4
    Other votes 33.2 38.0 11.4 5.4 5,841 11.1

    Election results in Brindabella at the 2020 ACT election
    Toggle between primary votes for the Labor Party, Liberal Party and the Greens.


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    18 COMMENTS

    1. Fiona Carrick is the Independent with a chance – but she needs to increase her vote from 7% to well over 10% and get ahead of the Green – Emma Davidson. Where are the extra votes going to come from? She plundered the Liberals last time

    4. @ Nether Portal
      Good point, Yerrabi is a growth areas so has a much younger demographic, fewer retirees etc so that may impact the results. This seat has some growth areas like Wright and Coombs but also the moost wealthy established areas of Canberra such Red Hill, Deakin, Forrest and Red Hill.
      Is Yerribi most ethnically diverse electorate and Brindabella the least?

    6. @Nimalan yes. There are a lot of Indian people in Yerrabi which is typical of growth areas (e.g Kellyville Ridge, North Kellyville and The Ponds in Sydney have large Indian populations).

    7. @ Nether Portal
      Good point. Brindabella was a growth area in the 1970s-1980s so it reflects different immigration patterns and is very Anglo. Brindabella was once named Nappy Valley. Today Yerrabi is a growth area so has a high South Asian population as do other Growth areas like the ones you correctly pointed out. Yerrabi also has a signficant Chinese community as well.

    8. Fiona Carrick is a NIMBY to the right of Labor who will almost definitely support a Liberal government in a hung parliament. She has a larger campaign but also more competition from Independents for Canberra. I think growth in her vote wouldn’t necessarily be at the expense of Labor or Greens but rather the 2 far right (or at least not “moderate”) Liberal incumbents.

      Emma Davidson had a minor scandal but was also a reasonably competent minister (particularly as disability minister which was taken away from her) and I don’t see her missing out on a sophomore surge, plus more renters and young first home buyers in the new Woden apartments should be enough for Greens to retain.

      I think ALP 2, GRN 1, Lib 2 (Carrick potentially instead of the 2nd Lib)

    9. I agree Fiona Carrick has a good shot here, although I’m curious why she didn’t run as an IFC candidate as they seem to be reasonably ideologically compatible and surely it would have dramatically improved their chances. As always, the big challenge for independents will be consolidating a quota ahead of the major parties when so many independents/micro parties are running.

    10. Fiona didn’t run with Independents for Canberra for very good reasons – she has a strong local profile in her own right from 2020 – Independents for Canberra is a quasi political party – she would have been an uncomfortable fit and had no reason to be constrained by its criteria. for her to get into contention she needs a substantial increase in her primary vote. where3 does it come from? In 2020 it came almost exclusively from Liberal voters – both Labor & Greens increase their vote in this seat on that occasion

    11. I’m voting very differently this election. I NOT numbering 5, just 3 getting a number.
      1 & 2. Fav independents who have said they support enquiry in ACT’s appalling law & order / courts / bail.
      3. Either Steel or Paterson
      Thats it.

    13. This should be a seat that the Libs could win a 3rd seat. The Greens seat is safe so it will come at the expense of Labor. However, i think Libs opposition to Light rail will hurt here. Also the Molonglo Valley is a growth area and more like Yerrabi than the rest of the seat so will be weaker for Libs. The Labor party has also promised a new town centre for the seat.

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