Incumbent MPs
- Andrew Barr (Labor), since 2006.
- Elizabeth Lee (Liberal), since 2016.
- Shane Rattenbury (Greens), since 2008.
- Rachel Stephen-Smith (Labor), since 2016.
- Rebecca Vassarotti (Greens), since 2020.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidates
- Assessment
- 2020 result
- 2020 preference flows
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Kurrajong covers the central suburbs of Canberra on either side of Lake Burley Griffin, predominantly on the northern side of the lake. Kurrajong stretches from Narrabundah in the south to Watson and Downer in the north. It also covers the city centre, the parliamentary triangle, the inner south suburbs of Barton, Kingston and part of Manuka, and the inner north suburbs of Turner, O’Connor, Lyneham and Ainslie.
Redistribution
Kurrajong contracted at its southern edge, losing Forrest and Red Hill to Murrumbidgee, and bringing the boundary up to Capital Hill. These changes made the electorate better for Labor and the Greens, and worse for the Liberal Party – the Liberal primary vote dropped by 1.3%, the Labor primary vote went up by 0.4%, and the Greens primary vote by 0.8%.
History
The electorate of Kurrajong was created as a five-member seat in 2016, covering the core of the former seven-member seat of Molonglo.
The electorate of Molonglo was created in 1995, when the ACT electoral system was changed to introduce multi-member districts for the first time. The seat covered almost exactly the same area from 1995 until 2012, having undergone three minor redistributions prior to the 2001, 2008 and 2012 elections.
Molonglo always elected 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and one Green. The other two seats have been shared. At three out of six elections, Molonglo elected three Labor and three Liberal. In 1995 and 1998, Labor only won two seats, with the other seat going to an independent. In 2008, the Liberal Party’s third seat was lost to a second Green.
At the first election in 1995, the Liberal Party elected three members and Labor elected two. Michael Moore was elected as an independent, and Kerrie Tucker was elected as a Greens MLA. The same split of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens and an independent was maintained in 1998.
In 2001, Labor won a third seat upon the retirement of independent MLA Michael Moore. This split of 3 Liberal, 3 Labor and one Green was maintained in 2004.
In 2008, the Liberal Party won two seats, while the Greens won a second seat. Labor held on to their three seats.
In 2012, the Liberal Party regained their third seat, while the Greens were reduced to one seat.
The new electorate of Kurrajong was created in 2016, covering the inner north and parts of the inner south. The northern and southern ends of the electorate were shifted into Yerrabi and Murrumbidgee respectively.
The Labor and Liberal parties each won two seats in 2016, while the Greens retained their single seat.
The Liberal Party lost their second seat to the Greens in 2020.
- Paul Girrawah House
Assessment
The result in Kurrajong in 2020 was a very strong result for the left – the current government won four out of five seats.
This may well be a high watermark – the second Greens candidate managed to win the final seat by a margin of just 0.05 quota.
On the other hand, Kurrajong is increasingly becoming a very strong progressive inner-city area, and the redistribution has made the position of the government even stronger in the area. The Labor position has gone up by 0.026 quotas, and the Greens position has gone up by 0.05 quotas, while the Liberal primary vote has gone down by 0.075 quotas.
| 2020 election | Redistribution | |||||
| Party | Votes | % | Quota | Swing | % | Quota |
| Labor | 19,213 | 38.0 | 2.278 | -1.7 | 38.4 | 2.304 |
| Liberal | 13,959 | 27.6 | 1.655 | -1.6 | 26.3 | 1.580 |
| Greens | 11,635 | 23.0 | 1.380 | +3.4 | 23.8 | 1.430 |
| Progressives | 2,546 | 5.0 | 0.302 | +5.0 | 5 | 0.301 |
| Others | 914 | 1.8 | 0.108 | +1.8 | 1.7 | 0.105 |
| Animal Justice | 790 | 1.6 | 0.094 | +0.2 | 1.6 | 0.097 |
| Sustainable Australia | 800 | 1.6 | 0.095 | +0.3 | 1.6 | 0.093 |
| Climate Change Justice | 560 | 1.1 | 0.066 | +1.1 | 1.1 | 0.066 |
| Community Action Party | 183 | 0.4 | 0.022 | +0.4 | 0.4 | 0.023 |
| Informal | 577 | 1.1 | ||||
Let’s fast forward until there are ten candidates left in the race. Labor’s Andrew Barr had won the first seat with a full quota, and at this point there were three Labor candidates, four Liberal candidates, two Greens candidates and one Progressive candidate left in the count:
- Shane Rattenbury (GRN) – 0.960 quotas
- Elizabeth Lee (LIB) – 0.672
- Rebecca Vassarotti (GRN) – 0.583
- Rachel Stephen-Smith (ALP) – 0.554
- Candice Burch (LIB) – 0.539
- Maddy Northam (ALP) – 0.381
- Jacob Ingram (ALP) – 0.335
- Tim Bohm (PROG) – 0.333
- Patrick Pentony (LIB) – 0.325
- Robert Johnson (LIB) – 0.238
Johnson’s preferences split roughly evenly between the three remaining Liberal candidates:
- Rattenbury (GRN) – 0.965
- Lee (LIB) – 0.743
- Burch (LIB) – 0.599
- Vassarotti (GRN) – 0.586
- Stephen-Smith (ALP) – 0.557
- Pentony (LIB) – 0.396
- Northam (ALP) – 0.389
- Ingram (ALP) – 0.339
- Bohm (PROG) – 0.337
Bohm’s preferences favoured the two remaining Greens candidates, pushing Rattenbury over quota for the second seat:
- Rattenbury (GRN) – 1.035
- Lee (LIB) – 0.768
- Vassarotti (GRN) – 0.659
- Burch (LIB) – 0.616
- Stephen-Smith (ALP) – 0.584
- Pentony (LIB) – 0.409
- Northam (ALP) – 0.409
- Ingram (ALP) – 0.361
Rattenbury’s small surplus mostly flowed to fellow Greens candidate Vassarotti:
- Lee (LIB) – 0.769
- Vassarotti (GRN) – 0.685
- Burch (LIB) – 0.617
- Stephen-Smith (ALP) – 0.588
- Northam (ALP) – 0.410
- Pentony (LIB) – 0.409
- Ingram (ALP) – 0.362
Ingram’s preferences mostly flowed to the other Labor candidates, with a stronger flow to Stephen-Smith:
- Lee (LIB) – 0.781
- Stephen-Smith (ALP) – 0.737
- Vassarotti (GRN) – 0.719
- Burch (LIB) – 0.624
- Northam (ALP) – 0.533
- Pentony (LIB) – 0.419
Pentony’s preferences split evenly between the two remaining Liberals, pushing Burch towards the front of the pack and Lee close to a quota:
- Lee (LIB) – 0.961
- Burch (LIB) – 0.808
- Stephen-Smith (ALP) – 0.744
- Vassarotti (GRN) – 0.732
- Northam (ALP) – 0.539
Northam’s preferences elected Stephen-Smith to the third seat, and pushed Vassarotti very close to Burch in the race for the final seat:
- Stephen-Smith (ALP) – 1.065
- Lee (LIB) – 0.976
- Burch (LIB) – 0.820
- Vassarotti (GRN) – 0.812
With no remaining Labor candidates, almost all of Stephen-Smith’s surplus flowed to Vassarotti, pushing her ahead of Burch. Lee and Vassarotti then won the final two seats, leaving Burch stranded:
- Lee (LIB) – 0.980
- Vassarotti (GRN) – 0.871
- Burch (LIB) – 0.822
Polling places in Kurrajong have been split into three parts. Polling places south of Lake Burley Griffin have been grouped together. Those on the north side of the lake have been split between those clustered around Civic, including Braddon, Reid and Campbell, and those in the inner north.
Labor topped the primary vote in two out of three areas, ranging from 35.9% in the south to 40% in the centre.
The Liberal Party came second overall. They topped the poll in the south, but only managed to come third in the centre and north. The Liberal primary vote ranged from 18.9% in the north to 37.3% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.6% in the south to 30.6% in the north. The Greens overtook the Liberal Party in the centre and north.
| Voter group | ALP % | LIB % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 38.7 | 18.9 | 30.6 | 13,778 | 29.1 |
| Central | 40.0 | 23.2 | 25.0 | 13,182 | 27.9 |
| South | 35.9 | 37.3 | 16.6 | 11,021 | 23.3 |
| Other votes | 37.8 | 30.0 | 20.0 | 5,698 | 12.1 |
| Other pre-poll | 40.2 | 27.1 | 22.1 | 3,600 | 7.6 |
Election results in Kurrajong at the 2020 ACT election
Toggle between primary votes for the Labor Party, Liberal Party and the Greens.
The trends that led to Liberals only getting 1 seat in 2020 have only accelerated further now, and the redistribution has cut out most (but not all) of the Liberals best areas in the seat. Lee will get a leadership boost but this is amidst Barr also getting one, and Rattenbury as well depending on how the election is covered.
Despite the absurdity of the 2020 result I think status quo is more likely than Liberals getting their 2nd seat back.
John, a comparison to Kurrajong 2024 would be the contest in Franklin for the 2014 Tasmanian state election. On that occasion, all three leaders from the major parties represented that seat and the one who benefitted most from a ‘leadership’ factor was Will Hodgman due to the strong anti-Labor mood at that election.
I’m not sure what the current mood in the ACT is, but due to the long period of Labor government there may be some ‘time for change’ sentiment which could work against Labor and the Greens. Then again, this is a high-density CBD centric seat where the support for Liberals is poor, so that would favour the Greens more.
Could the Greens eventually hold more seats than the Liberals in the ACT? Could the Liberals ever win back government after being in opposition for so damn long? I’m curious for what your thoughts on this are.
i personally think the Greens are only really strong in the Inner North of Canberra due to a high amount of young renters. The Liberals still have a presence in the Inner South which is wealthy and the Brindabella/Nappy Valley areas. The issue is that the Libs probably need a centrist independent to win in order for them to form a minority government. They will not go into Government with the Greens as there is still a Christian vote in Canberra. I think on a good election Libs can win maybe 11 out 25 ACT seats so they still need maybe 2 more. I think it is unlikely again that Labor will win a majority in their own right which they only achieved in 2004
@Nimalan I agree and that’s how the Liberals got government in the ACT in 1095 and 1998: by getting support from independents. No Liberal leader would ever go into government with the Greens anywhere, in fact they would rather go into government with Labor or the teals than the Greens.
Agree Nimalan, I think the teal movement is supporting a local grassroots type independent campaign with Clare Carnell (former Liberal Chief Minister Kate Carnell’s daughter) leading it. If any teal type independents in the mould of current Senator David Pocock get elected, they could be persuaded to back a minority Liberal government under the right circumstances especially if they capture votes and seats primarily from Labor rather than the Liberals.
@ Nether Portal
I think the Libs aiming for a territory-wide vote of between 39-40% is a realistic target as is 11 out of 25 seats. In 2012 they slightly outpolled Labor on primaries ACT Wide and in 2016 they won 11 seats so i think it is realistic that the Libs can aim to win a higher primary vote than Labor and more seats. However, i think getting a primary vote close to to mid 40s is a very high bar in the ACT as there is little rural areas and even the Liberal friendly areas are not like the North Shore/Wentworth where the Libs can run up big margins. However, as Yoh An correctly pointed out this requires the independent to take votes of Labor rather than Libs.
@Nether Portal [comment 11:47am 15/5/24]
I actually thought this a considered idea, with the fact that is would only require two LIB MLAs to defect to GRN to make them official opposition. That would require some serious wrangling but just shows how close the GRNs are to that scenario. However, I believe they hit a high mark in 2020 with some very favourable exclusions, and would expect them to be at 4-5 seats this election.
@Nimalan [comment 1:00pm 15/2/24], et al.
If 11 is the best we can see the LIBs doing, they’d be hoping a Belco Party candidate would get up in Ginninderra at the expense of GRN 1. The risk here is if the LIB vote drops, loosing the LIB2 to Belco, you’d still need LIBs to find 2 seats elsewhere. Still see it hard how the LIBs get Government here unless there is a massive swing in all ACT electorates. Even 2012 shows that tying with ALP on seats is just not enough, as GRN will support them and they have a very cordial working relationships (unlike Tasmania).
So where do they go from 9 to 13? 3rd LIB in Brindabella, and they MUST get 2nd LIB in Kurrajong, and you’d have to say 3rd LIB in Murrumbidgee with a 1st Belco in Ginninderra. Loosing Alistair Coe hurts LIBs in Yerrabri and Gulia Jones in Murrumbidgee. The aforementioned is the best case scenario I really can think of a LIB government in ACT. ‘Time’ factor and federal drag will play a part on ALP but it’s really is tricky for LIBs to govern in what is a very progressive electorate. Love to hear other thoughts on possible routes to a LIB government in ACT.
Kurrajong is really interesting: where will the independents get their votes from? Strong Independents will get their votes from the Liberals. Independents for Canberra? Anybody’s guess – maybe some discontented Labor voters, maybe some Liberal voters? Any dispersion of votes to independents plus demographic change may enable the Greens to hold on to their second seat. Much will have to go right for the Liberals for them to reclaim that seat.
I think Independents for Canberra will mostly take from Liberals. There’s an informed cohort of left leaning voters that parked their anti Liberal vote with Pocock (instead of Greens) to try beat Zed. They’re not going to lend anyone their vote at the ACT government level. The involvement of Kate Carnell’s daughter and possibility of forming a Liberal government is also going to give left leaning voters pause (especially if Labor back it in with ads)
I think they’ll do slightly better than Canberra Progressives did in 2020, and not close enough to a quota to threaten any incumbents.