Welcome to the Tally Room guide to the 2024 election for the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each electorate’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
The next election is due to be held on Saturday, 19 October.
There are profiles of all five ACT electorates. All five of these profiles are now unlocked for everyone to access.
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Table of contents:
Electorates
There are five electorates which cover the Australian Capital Territory. Each of these electorates elects five members of the Legislative Assembly. Guides have been prepared for all five electorates. Click the links below to view each guide:
You can also use the following map to click on any electorate, and then click through to the relevant guide.
Electoral system
The ACT Legislative Assembly is elected using the Hare-Clark system, which is a version of the Single Transferable Vote. Hare-Clark is also used to elect the Tasmanian House of Assembly.
The basics of the counting system are similar to the system used to elect the Senate, and the upper houses of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Each voter has a single vote. There is a quota, and any candidate who polls more than a quota distributes their surplus to other candidates. Once all surpluses have been distributed, candidates are knocked out from the bottom until the number of candidates remaining equals the number of seats left to be filled.
The details of how this system is implemented make it quite different to the system used to elect the Senate. Firstly, there is no above-the-line voting. This means that voters can only vote for individual candidates, and thus must also mark preferences for individuals. Secondly, there is no such thing as a party order. In the Senate, the party nominates a first candidate, a second candidate, and so forth, and they appear on the ballot in that order. In the ACT, different ballots show different candidates at the top of their party ticket.
This second difference, called Robson Rotation, weakens the power of the parties and strengthens the power of individual candidates. Votes cast for the party without any regard for an individual candidates are randomised between the candidates, so the candidate who can poll the most personal votes will be in the best position. It’s not unheard of for a sitting MP of one party to be defeated by another candidate of the same party.
In the past, the ACT was covered by one seven-member electorate and two five-member electorates. Since 2016, the ACT has been covered by five five-member electorates, each of which have a quota of approximately 16.7% to win a seat.
Redistribution
There were no electorates used for the first two ACT elections in 1989 and 1992.
In 1995, the new Hare-Clark system required electoral boundaries for the first time, and three electorates were created. The seven-member electorate of Molonglo covered central Canberra, Woden and Gungahlin. The five-member electorate of Brindabella covered Tuggeranong, and the five-member electorate of Ginninderra covered Belconnen.
There were minor redistributions in 2001, 2008 and 2012, but these electorates remained largely the same.
In 2014, the Legislative Assembly voted to expand its membership to 25, by creating five electorates, each represented by five members.
The subsequent redistribution kept the electorates of Brindabella and Ginninderra, although they shrunk in territory. Two new districts of Murrumbidgee (covering Weston Creek and Woden Valley) and Yerrabi (covering Gungahlin) were created. The central district of Molonglo was renamed Kurrajong, and contracted substantially to only cover the inner north, inner south and city centre of Canberra.
Redistributions prior to the 2020 election, and prior to the upcoming election, saw a trend of power shifting towards the northern suburbs of Canberra.
Prior to the 2020 election, Yerrabi contracted, with Ginninderra taking in more of the Belconnen district. These two districts were left untouched in the recent redistribution.
Amongst the other three districts, the trend saw southern electorates push north. Brindabella took in half of Kambah from Murrumbidgee for the 2020 election, and the other half for the 2024 election. Murrumbidgee then expanded north to take in parts of the inner south from Kurrajong: taking Deakin and Yarralumla first, and this time taking in Red Hill and Forrest.
You can read my summary of the recent redistribution here.
The following table summarises changes in the vote for the three main parties due to the redistribution.
| Pre-redistribution | Post-redistribution | |||||
| Electorate | Labor | Liberal | Greens | Labor | Liberal | Greens |
| Brindabella | 40.71 | 38.42 | 10.80 | 40.49 | 38.42 | 10.76 |
| Ginninderra | 40.00 | 26.73 | 12.51 | 40.00 | 26.73 | 12.51 |
| Kurrajong | 37.97 | 27.59 | 22.99 | 38.41 | 26.34 | 23.84 |
| Murrumbidgee | 36.06 | 35.57 | 11.73 | 35.65 | 35.96 | 11.80 |
| Yerrabi | 34.16 | 40.59 | 10.18 | 34.16 | 40.59 | 10.18 |
Political history
The ACT was granted self-government in 1989. An elected House of Assembly had previously existed from 1975 to 1986, but had only played an advisory role in ACT government.
The ACT Legislative Assembly was originally elected using party-list proportional representation in one ACT-wide electorate.
At the 1989 election, the ALP won five seats, the Liberal Party won four seats, and eight other seats were won by independent tickets: four seats to the Residents Rally, three seats to the No Self-Government Party, and one seat to the Abolish Self Government Coalition.
Following the election, the Labor Party formed a minority government led by Rosemary Follett. Six months later, the government was defeated, and Trevor Kaine led a minority Liberal government. Kaine governed until 1991, when a split in the Residents Rally led to Follett returning to power.
At the 1992 election, the ALP won eight seats, the Liberal Party won six, and three were won by independents. Follett’s minority Labor government governed for the entirety of the 1992-1995 term.
The electoral system was changed to the current system for the 1995 election. At that election the Liberal Party won seven seats, the ALP won six, the Greens won two, and two independents were elected. Kate Carnell formed a minority Liberal government with independent support. Carnell was re-elected in 1998, when one of the two Greens seats was lost to another conservative independent.
The ALP returned to power in 2001, when they formed a minority government led by Jon Stanhope. All three independents lost their seats, with one going to the Democrats and two going to Labor, putting Labor only one seat short of a majority.
Jon Stanhope won a second term in 2004, when Labor won a majority, with nine seats. The Liberal Party held seven seats and the Greens one.
At the 2008 election, the ALP lost two seats and the Liberal Party lost one, all of which went to the Greens. The ALP and the Greens formed an agreement to support a minority Labor government. Stanhope led the government until 2011, when he was succeeded as Chief Minister by Katy Gallagher.
At the 2012 election, both major parties gained seats at the expense of the Greens. Labor and Liberal both found themselves on eight seats each, with only one Green, Shane Rattenbury, surviving. Labor and the Greens again formed a government, this time with Rattenbury taking on a ministry.
In 2014, Gallagher stepped down as chief minister and was succeeded by Andrew Barr. Gallagher was appointed to the Senate in early 2015.
The Assembly was expanded from 17 seats to 25 seats in 2016. This was achieved by the creation of five five-member districts, replacing the previous three districts.
The 2016 election saw Labor win twelve seats, the Liberal Party win eleven, and the Greens won two seats. The Labor-Greens alliance was renewed after the 2016 election, with Rattenbury continuing to serve as a minister in the Labor-led government.
The 2020 election saw both major parties go backwards, with the Greens winning their biggest seat haul in ACT history. The Greens won six seats, alongside ten Labor and nine Liberals. The Labor-Greens government continued, now with multiple Greens ministers.
Contact
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@ Yoh An
I cant see Labor losing many seats so if there is a decline in the combined left vote (ALP, GRN) the Greens usually win the final seat on surplus Labor votes so if there is a shortage of that the surplus Greens vote will just ensure the second Labor member in each seat is re-elected. Currently, Labor does not have a third seat in any electorate so pretty much of all the seats they have are safe. The first Greens seat in Kurrajong is safe so even in a really bad night for the Greens, Shane Rattenbury will be reelected. The next strongest Greens seat is Murrumbidgee as that area is a bit Tealish (Inner South, Wealthy parts of Woden such as O’Malley, Issacs and Garran). Maybe it is possible that Labor could lose a second seat and the Greens hold theirs but i think that is unlikely due to the growth of the Molonglo Valley where demographics are more like Yerrabi.
If there is a swing to the Right in Brindabella which is the best path for the Libs. The Greens will lose their seat. This is the weakest area in the ACT for Greens and their votes will just ensure the second Labor is relected if labor falls just below 2 quotas.
The Liberal path to government as I see it is winning 3 in Brindabella and Yerrabi, Fiona Carrick winning in Murrumbidgee and Emerson IFC winning in Kurrajong (both off Greens). Belco Party seem less disciplined and prominent than in 2020 and I’m not seeing the right winning 3 seats in Ginninderra (they may not even win 2). I think 3 in Yerrabi is also a bridge too far but it’s more likely than any other outcome that gets Liberals and potential Liberal allies to 13.
I think that’s less likely than Labor having a path to government without Greens, and the option (which they may not take) of freezing the Greens out of government in return for confidence and supply from Carrick and/or IFC. Also can’t rule out majotity. But still seeing some form of status quo (Labor with Greens in sole balance of power) as most likely.
@ Blue not John
Although like you mentioned before i think the Greens will win the seat in Yerrabi due to Palestine. The Muslim community is only around 6% but even a small increase and given Alister Coe is not on the ballot.
I think this analysis of Yerrabi being diverse therefore not Liberal is overly simplistic and very much ignore that it was their strongest electorate last election. People here have said Muslim = Greens, but ignore that the electorate has a much bigger Indian (and subcontinent), and east Asian presence which the Liberals and Labor have gotten more support from.
It’s also an area with more married couples and young families which are again stronger demographics for the 2 major parties. All that said I still think it’s going to be a status quo electorate of 2-2-1 while other electorates see changes.
The point is the change. What factors would make Hindu and Sikh Australians vote differently to 2020?
There is the idea that Muslims who previously would have had a pretty small Greens thinking about voting Greens for the first time. Greens had a Muslim community leader as a support candidate in 2020 so that effect might be muted in Yerrabi. The main reason I think 3 is too hard is they did well in 2020, with Coe’s leader bonus, and it still wasn’t enough. Also the electorate would have more renters in the light rail suburbs and town centre than in 2020. Plus in other elections it seems like young families (who’d be moving into the new build suburbs) don’t vote all that differently to other millennials, the first generation not to move right with age.
Liberals aren’t out of the running for 3 in Murrumbidgee, I just think if the Greens are going to lose a seat it will be more likely to Carrick. Not seeing Labor being reduced to 1 seat anywhere.
ACT Liberal Leader might have just done a Mark Latham moment
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/canberra-liberals-leader-elizabeth-lee-makes-rude-gesture-at-journalist-following-tense-press-conference-exchange/ar-AA1slALy?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=300f680d0ea8441b82a459ca0cdc6a95&ei=13
Yeah, not a decision I would make three days before polling day but I’m not the leader of a major political party, so I’m sure Lee knows what she’s doing.
It’s a shame there isn’t really polling to see the effect
@Caleb except she apologised Latham didn’t
Her vote will go up
Probably not in the ACT but. Drove threw that place 10 years ago and stayed 2 days. Not a place I intend going back.
Flipping off a journalist isn’t a good look but I don’t think this is going to ruin her chances greatly.
In Murrumbidgee in 2020 Carrick got her votes exclusively from the Liberal Party – Greens and Labor both increased their vote at the same time. Carrick is not pro light rail – that is not going to attract Green and Labor voters. If Carrick is threatening for a seat – the second Liberal might be in trouble – seems unlikely but there is a plausible scenario in which the second Liberal, Carrick & the Greens are competing for the last two seats. My point is that people talking about the possible success of independents need to say where their votes are going to come from.
I agree that it’s not a good look but calling it a “Mark Latham moment” is a bit of a stretch. A large chunk of the electorate has already voted.
It plays into the idea that the Canberra Liberals are not a serious political outfit and not ready to govern. I also think Lee has been a poor media performer and did not come across well in the debat. It’s not particularly egregious but it’s the cherry on top of the longer term campaign and sums up what people hesitant about Lee feel.
A lot of people have already voted (I voted on the 8th) but genuinely undecided voters are more likely to be the ones holding off. So it can still have an impact.
My other thought is that on such a low key election, this could last a couple more news cycles and be fresh in people’s heads on election day. Especially as it’s the first candidate scandal that’s about a leader, not just someone you can deprioritise as you vote for your party. It might be one of the only things low information voters (again, more likely to be election day voters) see about the ACT election.
lets face it who hasnt wanted to give a journalist the bird
Key battles are IMO:
Yerrabi Grn 1 vs Lib 3
Ginninderra Lib 2 vs Lab 3 / IFC 1
Kurrajong Grn 2 vs Lib 2 / IFC 1
Murrumbidgee Grn 1 vs Lib 3
Brindabella Lib 3 vs Lab 3
First listed is favourite. If you give all those battles to the Liberals, that makes 13! More likely though is 10-10-5 with Nuttall losing her seat to the Liberals, and no other changes.
Bad predictor – That’s a good way to lay out info
IMO (also in order of likelihood)
Yerrabi: GRN 1 vs LIB 2 vs ALP 3 for last 2 seats
Ginninderra: ALP 3 vs GRN 2 vs LIB 2 for last seat
Kurrajong: GRN 2 vs IFC (Not seeing LIB 2)
Murrumbidgee: GRN 1 VS Carrick vs LIB 2 for last 2 seats
Brindabella: GRN 1 vs ALP 3 vs LIB 3 for last seat
I think Lee has fundamentally failed to impress undecided voters and won’t do any better than Coe. Labor will take a hit in most electorates but are far too strong to be reduced below 2 seats anywhere. Outside Emerson in Kurrajong and Carrick in Murrumbidgee, there won’t be a critical mass of independent votes to threaten any incumbents. They’ll draw more from Liberals, and based on how other elections go that will be a net benefit to the left who are less likely to exhaust. And in my hack opinion, the Greens have once again been underestimated. They should get close enough to a quota to hang on everywhere, should do well enough in Kurrajong at the expense of both majors to keep Vassarotti (even with a good showing from IFC), and I think with enough chaos in Ginninderra on the right the left could pick up 4 seats.
I reckon the Liberals will get the most votes in both Brindabella and Yerrabi. Brindabella voted No to the Voice and while Yerrabi voted Yes it has a strong Liberal vote. If Canberra becomes more multicultural then the Canberra Liberals should do what the NSW Liberals did and appeal to ethnic voters to get Chinese, Indian, etc voters on board.
Since the departure of various religious right-wing Liberals from the party room (e.g. Kikkert, Alistair Coe, Zed Seselja), there may be a cohort of Liberals who feel disenfranchised and are looking for a new home. There could be a leakage of votes from the Liberals to independents and minors. The Liberals can potentially pick up ex-Labor voters.
The seat predictions above look sound. I can also see the Greens more at risk of losing seats than Labor. Labor can score at least 2 or close to 2 quotas in each seat. The Greens can only fill a whole quota in Kurrajong and maybe Ginninderra. They are at risk in Brindabella (to the majors).
Unfortunately no polling means any predictions are gonna be limited but here’s mine (and sorry for how long it is tell me if I should just post the long reasons in each electorates thread instead): Overall 11-8-4-1
Yerrabi: 2-2-1 final seat between Greens 1 and Libs 3 by a safe margin. Feel like Braddock’s done a decent job as an incumbent, Liberals no longer have their leader running in the seat and too far off to win a third same with Labor.
Ginninderra: 3-1-1 final seat between Labor 3 and Belco 1. Liberals were only a short margin off losing their second seat here last election so their disaster this time round guarantees it. They’ve had the controversy with Roberts secret social media accounts, they’ve had Peter Cain’s controversy over a textbook he wrote years ago. Their biggest vote winner Kikkert got kicked out for bullying and corruption, now running for hard right Family First party which will take votes off them. The main question is who benefits from it. I think the Greens would’ve been at risk if not for the Liberals implosion and how much right wing votes are gonna be sprayed. Don’t think IFC are prominent enough here to win the 5th seat. Ultimately I think labor keeps the same amount of votes and gets in narrowly over the Belco party.
Kurrajong (my electorate): 2-1-1-1 final seat between Libs2-Grn2-IFC1. Final seat could go to any of the three but think IFC is just most likely over Liberals with it being a coin flip. I expect the liberals vote to bounce back since last election they had an absolute disaster here with 2 disendorsed candidates + one being a CCP foreign influence committee member. Really gonna depend on how much support Emerson’s been able to get since this is where alot of the parties effort would’ve gone to get him in. Last election Greens got a 2nd very narrowly and this election they’ve had controvery over a candidate psoting about wanting to kill politicians and promoting removing Hezbollah from terrorist lists so even with beneficial trends and redistribution think they’re likely to lose the second seat.
Murrimbidgee: 2-2-1 final seat between Greens and Carrick. Both majors seem to be safe above 2 quotas so it really depends on how much momentum Carrick is able to get vs the Greens. They got in safely over her last time and could gain votes from incumbency but could lose votes from no longer being able to cast themselves as being outside the government despite trying to. Carrick will benefit from having a party ticket this time and additional support behind independents but think it’ll narrowly not be enough and Greens win the last seat.
Brindabella:2-3-0 final seat between Lib3 and Lab3. Greens only won the seat by 84 votes last time and then proceeded to lose their incumbent due to them resigning after having sex with under 18s. So I don’t see much hope for them to retain the seat this election. Also haven’t heard much about IFC candidates here so final seat likely between Liberal and Labor. Liberals got closer to it last election so have them as favourites to win the 5th seat this time.
@den would likely be somethin like 9 libs 8 labor 7 green 1 ind. though optimistically for the lib it could 11-12 libs 7 labor 5 greens 1-2 independents
Super Saturday is tomorrow everyone! Long night for me as Tottenham also play West Ham that night at 10:30pm NSW time, 9:30pm Queensland time (we’ll win for sure, I might even put a bet on it) so I’ll be tryna pay attention to five different things at once.
Everything will be coming in at the same time because NSW and the ACT use the same time zone all year round. Results usually start coming in around 6:00pm NSW time (5:00pm Queensland time). The ACT has no upper house but Hare-Clark can take a while to count and the final results won’t be known for another two weeks, so all of the results tomorrow night and for the next few days will be preliminary results.
My predictions for the three by-elections:
* Epping: Liberal retain
* Hornsby: Liberal retain
* Pittwater: still unsure, either Liberal retain or teal gain
As for the ACT election unfortunately I do think Labor will be returned to government but with a reduced number of seats, the LNP will gain a third seat in Brindabella. The Liberals will win a plurality of the vote in Brindabella, Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi.
@Np no point in watching the by elections libs will win Epping and Hornsby and real win pittwater there saved you some time.
Nether, Barr won’t win, labor will be reduced to 3rd place so a Green government is more likely than a Labor one, Liberals will win 12 seats + the independent so that will be 13, Liberal minority.
@Daniel T I wouldn’t be that surprised if Labor lose to be honest, 20 years is a bloody long time. Unfortunately there were no opinion polls so we have no idea what the people of Canberra think of Labor, the Liberals or the Greens at the territory level.
There were only two polls in the NT but we still all knew that Labor was deeply unpopular because stats showed crime was increasing and we all saw people on the news saying they wanted Labor gone (the results show that urban areas and provincial cities deserted Labor (including a lot of ethnic voters, moderates and working-class voters), but they held on in their remote seats).
It would be absolutely amazing to have Elizabeth Lee in charge of the ACT. She is a scandal-free moderate Liberal reminiscent of Kate Carnell. If the Territory can go back to the 90s the ACT (or “the Other Territory”) should be able to too.
@Daniel t I believe that could be a likely outcome to.
Also @Darth Vader I will be looking mostly at the swing and how much the Liberals win by, and where they win. Dominic Perrottet was popular and a lot of local Asian voters voted for him (Epping is one of the most Chinese state electorates in Australia), while he also got the support of moderate (often white) and conservative (often Asian) voters because he was the perfect mix of a moderate and a conservative. Matt Kean was a key moderate in the NSW Liberals and has a personal vote in Hornsby too. The Liberals barely won Pittwater last time and federally it’s a teal haven (it’s the strongest part of Mackellar for Sophie Scamps), so that could be tight. With no Labor candidates in either of them this will attract a lot of votes to minor parties and perhaps some Labor voters will tactically vote for the teal in Pittwater.
@Nether Portal unfortunately Perrottet was the Rishi Sunak of The NSW Liberals and all he could do was damage control
@Caleb how? Boris Johnson was losing, Liz Truss was losing, Rishi Sunak lost. Could’ve been worse with Boris and Truss than it was under Sunak.
Dominic Perrottet only lost because of the “it’s time” factor, and Gladys Berejiklian would’ve won. If you look at the opinion polls Gladys never recorded a net negative approval rating ever while Perrottet had just two in his career, so both him and Chris Minns were popular voters just needed to pick who they preferred.
Doubt that there will be a consistent swing in every electorate – the Liberals need for everything to go right for them in every electorate. They have a big problem in Ginnindera where they risk losing a seat to Labor due to a dispersed conservative vote – Belco Party, Family First & Independents for Canberra.
Kurrajong has been strengthened for the left by the redistribution & demographic change – if Liberals lose votes to IfC Greens may hold on to their second seat.
Murrumbidgee – If Carrick gets up it could be at the expense of the second Liberal – not likely but if she does well the votes have to come from somewhere
Libs didn’t even lose in a landslide labor is only in minority
Labor is not in a minority. There is a coalition that has a majority. A large majority.
@Ben Raue I think he’s referring to NSW Labor as Caleb was talking about NSW Labor.
Which reminds me, Ben, after New Year’s do you think you could put up a Victoria 2026 guide (and then a NSW guide the year after that).
I noticed that Fiona Carrick is mentioned a few times as a potential seat winner in Murrumbidgee. She didn’t even get half a quota last time. I see there’s IFC running but it’s not the seat where the heat is on.
This election, is there a huge disaffected (ex-major party) vote looking for somewhere to go? Or has she upped her campaigning game?
I note that she has a NIMBY, urban planning platform which might pull in voters who have such issues at the front of mind.
If you read the Murrumbidgee guide, you’ll see that Carrick almost reached 0.7 quotas by the end of the count. So she fell short by about 6%, which doesn’t feel insurmountable at all.
NP, Victoria 2026 is on my list but it’s a pretty big job to do a full state election guide and I won’t do it by halves. I’m hoping to have it up before I unlock the federal guide.
Ben, I see. Carrick got 7% on primaries which is 0.4 of a quota. If the primary vote goes up and by luck, scores preference flows from others, then maybe she will win.
Ben, why is South Australia coming before Victoria even though South Australia has far less people and users?
Anyway final prediction for ACT:
LIB 12
GRN 6
LAB 6
IND 1
(Greens very well could form opposition here) But ALP to win more votes than the Greens.
@Daniel T so who forms opposition, Labor, the Greens or both?
Daniel T, what are you talking about? South Australia comes before Victoria because that’s when it’s election is. And because of that I will be doing South Australia before Victoria unless I get to it before SA’s final redistribution is out.
@daniel i think it will likely be LAB 7 GRN 5
John If Greens get 5 seats Liberals will not be in government – the Liberals path to government lies through winning the vulnerable Greens seats
It’s very obvious from these predictions who has looked at the data and understands the basics of the ACT electoral system.
@southsider Without polling all people’s predictions (mine included) are largely just going off what they want to see happen, where you really have to look at each electorate to see where seats could be gained/lost.
Daniel T – fair dinkum, it is obvious you have never lived in Canberra or been there to understand the dynamics / politics of the place. Labor will get 2 seats per electorate – i.e. 10 seats in total. Liberal should get 2 seats per electorate – i.e 10 seats in total. Greens seat is in Kurrajong and whatever else. So in reality there are 4 seats open. I predict it will be Labor 10 or 11, Greens 3 or 4 and Liberals 9 and 3 open seats.
@James don’t worry, Daniel T has been making insane pro-Liberal predictions in Queensland too. And yet he says he isn’t a Liberal cheerleader.
I’m curious anyone on the ground in the ACT today?
Agree AA, Daniel appears to make contradictory statements often – for the recent NSW election he claimed the Coalition would lose badly when their defeat was only minor in nature.
I think anyone who does some basic research will understand it not possible for the Greens to win anywhere near the number of seats as Labor or replace the Labor party as the challenging party to the LNP. As Doug mentioned the Libs path to government is defeating as many of the Greens as possible or a friendly crossbencher like Fiona Carrick or the Belco party to do that for them. It is highly unlikely that Labor will fall below the 10 they have now. Second the vast majority of Canberra despite being high income and well educated is not like the Northern Beaches, North Shore, Inner East of Melb etc so it is not a Tealish demographic. All of us who devote our spare time to comment here are passionate about politics but there should be some demographic analysis as well not just partisan chearleading.
The ridiculously hyperpartisan pro-lnp commentary popping up across all pages is really reducing the value of the comment section on this site. Without polling, we can only say that the result tonight will probably be similar to 2020, with the best left result probably being the 2020 results (MAYBE +1 green) and the best right result being a Lib minority.