Welcome to the Tally Room guide to the 2024 election for the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each electorate’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
The next election is due to be held on Saturday, 19 October.
There are profiles of all five ACT electorates. All five of these profiles are now unlocked for everyone to access.
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Table of contents:
Electorates
There are five electorates which cover the Australian Capital Territory. Each of these electorates elects five members of the Legislative Assembly. Guides have been prepared for all five electorates. Click the links below to view each guide:
You can also use the following map to click on any electorate, and then click through to the relevant guide.
Electoral system
The ACT Legislative Assembly is elected using the Hare-Clark system, which is a version of the Single Transferable Vote. Hare-Clark is also used to elect the Tasmanian House of Assembly.
The basics of the counting system are similar to the system used to elect the Senate, and the upper houses of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Each voter has a single vote. There is a quota, and any candidate who polls more than a quota distributes their surplus to other candidates. Once all surpluses have been distributed, candidates are knocked out from the bottom until the number of candidates remaining equals the number of seats left to be filled.
The details of how this system is implemented make it quite different to the system used to elect the Senate. Firstly, there is no above-the-line voting. This means that voters can only vote for individual candidates, and thus must also mark preferences for individuals. Secondly, there is no such thing as a party order. In the Senate, the party nominates a first candidate, a second candidate, and so forth, and they appear on the ballot in that order. In the ACT, different ballots show different candidates at the top of their party ticket.
This second difference, called Robson Rotation, weakens the power of the parties and strengthens the power of individual candidates. Votes cast for the party without any regard for an individual candidates are randomised between the candidates, so the candidate who can poll the most personal votes will be in the best position. It’s not unheard of for a sitting MP of one party to be defeated by another candidate of the same party.
In the past, the ACT was covered by one seven-member electorate and two five-member electorates. Since 2016, the ACT has been covered by five five-member electorates, each of which have a quota of approximately 16.7% to win a seat.
Redistribution
There were no electorates used for the first two ACT elections in 1989 and 1992.
In 1995, the new Hare-Clark system required electoral boundaries for the first time, and three electorates were created. The seven-member electorate of Molonglo covered central Canberra, Woden and Gungahlin. The five-member electorate of Brindabella covered Tuggeranong, and the five-member electorate of Ginninderra covered Belconnen.
There were minor redistributions in 2001, 2008 and 2012, but these electorates remained largely the same.
In 2014, the Legislative Assembly voted to expand its membership to 25, by creating five electorates, each represented by five members.
The subsequent redistribution kept the electorates of Brindabella and Ginninderra, although they shrunk in territory. Two new districts of Murrumbidgee (covering Weston Creek and Woden Valley) and Yerrabi (covering Gungahlin) were created. The central district of Molonglo was renamed Kurrajong, and contracted substantially to only cover the inner north, inner south and city centre of Canberra.
Redistributions prior to the 2020 election, and prior to the upcoming election, saw a trend of power shifting towards the northern suburbs of Canberra.
Prior to the 2020 election, Yerrabi contracted, with Ginninderra taking in more of the Belconnen district. These two districts were left untouched in the recent redistribution.
Amongst the other three districts, the trend saw southern electorates push north. Brindabella took in half of Kambah from Murrumbidgee for the 2020 election, and the other half for the 2024 election. Murrumbidgee then expanded north to take in parts of the inner south from Kurrajong: taking Deakin and Yarralumla first, and this time taking in Red Hill and Forrest.
You can read my summary of the recent redistribution here.
The following table summarises changes in the vote for the three main parties due to the redistribution.
| Pre-redistribution | Post-redistribution | |||||
| Electorate | Labor | Liberal | Greens | Labor | Liberal | Greens |
| Brindabella | 40.71 | 38.42 | 10.80 | 40.49 | 38.42 | 10.76 |
| Ginninderra | 40.00 | 26.73 | 12.51 | 40.00 | 26.73 | 12.51 |
| Kurrajong | 37.97 | 27.59 | 22.99 | 38.41 | 26.34 | 23.84 |
| Murrumbidgee | 36.06 | 35.57 | 11.73 | 35.65 | 35.96 | 11.80 |
| Yerrabi | 34.16 | 40.59 | 10.18 | 34.16 | 40.59 | 10.18 |
Political history
The ACT was granted self-government in 1989. An elected House of Assembly had previously existed from 1975 to 1986, but had only played an advisory role in ACT government.
The ACT Legislative Assembly was originally elected using party-list proportional representation in one ACT-wide electorate.
At the 1989 election, the ALP won five seats, the Liberal Party won four seats, and eight other seats were won by independent tickets: four seats to the Residents Rally, three seats to the No Self-Government Party, and one seat to the Abolish Self Government Coalition.
Following the election, the Labor Party formed a minority government led by Rosemary Follett. Six months later, the government was defeated, and Trevor Kaine led a minority Liberal government. Kaine governed until 1991, when a split in the Residents Rally led to Follett returning to power.
At the 1992 election, the ALP won eight seats, the Liberal Party won six, and three were won by independents. Follett’s minority Labor government governed for the entirety of the 1992-1995 term.
The electoral system was changed to the current system for the 1995 election. At that election the Liberal Party won seven seats, the ALP won six, the Greens won two, and two independents were elected. Kate Carnell formed a minority Liberal government with independent support. Carnell was re-elected in 1998, when one of the two Greens seats was lost to another conservative independent.
The ALP returned to power in 2001, when they formed a minority government led by Jon Stanhope. All three independents lost their seats, with one going to the Democrats and two going to Labor, putting Labor only one seat short of a majority.
Jon Stanhope won a second term in 2004, when Labor won a majority, with nine seats. The Liberal Party held seven seats and the Greens one.
At the 2008 election, the ALP lost two seats and the Liberal Party lost one, all of which went to the Greens. The ALP and the Greens formed an agreement to support a minority Labor government. Stanhope led the government until 2011, when he was succeeded as Chief Minister by Katy Gallagher.
At the 2012 election, both major parties gained seats at the expense of the Greens. Labor and Liberal both found themselves on eight seats each, with only one Green, Shane Rattenbury, surviving. Labor and the Greens again formed a government, this time with Rattenbury taking on a ministry.
In 2014, Gallagher stepped down as chief minister and was succeeded by Andrew Barr. Gallagher was appointed to the Senate in early 2015.
The Assembly was expanded from 17 seats to 25 seats in 2016. This was achieved by the creation of five five-member districts, replacing the previous three districts.
The 2016 election saw Labor win twelve seats, the Liberal Party win eleven, and the Greens won two seats. The Labor-Greens alliance was renewed after the 2016 election, with Rattenbury continuing to serve as a minister in the Labor-led government.
The 2020 election saw both major parties go backwards, with the Greens winning their biggest seat haul in ACT history. The Greens won six seats, alongside ten Labor and nine Liberals. The Labor-Greens government continued, now with multiple Greens ministers.
Contact
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@John in the ACT? That would require a Liberal government and a drop in the Labor vote. So probably never.
@NP not really it would only require the greens to have more seats then labor
@ np
I also doubt that will happen as well, Green vote is growing in the Inner North along Northborne Avenue that is because of densification but the rest of Canberra is suburban so really a centrist voting block. I very much doubt the Greens can outpoll Libs or Labor in Brindabella, Yerribi etc. Apart from the inner north i cannot see Greens outpolling Labor or Libs anywhere else. There is also less private sector voters so less of a Teal vote apart from the Inner South as well.
I remember 1975 there was 1 Canberra Federal seat and the liberal mp elected served 2 terms till 1980 .This is now unthinkable
1 month out and still pretty quiet.
Independents for Canberra seem well funded and getting support from small businesses (based on signs in windows) but not seeing any evidence they’ll eat into the Labor/Green vote much. I expect they’ll get a small vote mostly at the expense of Liberals.
Greens intentionally have little advertising presence but appear to be door knocking plenty. Their most recent fundraising email was about retaining seats rather than the “Greens led government” push they sometimes mention.
Labor haven’t rolled out any of the attacks I was expecting yet (reminders that Canberra Liberals will implement Dutton’s agenda and Trump’s ideology in the ACT, warnings that independents will help Liberals form government).
But really not feeling the mood for change, despite the Liberals “23 years is long enough” signs. Ultimately Barr, the longest serving MP, is younger than Albo and Dutton, there has been plenty of internal renewal and the two party dynamic has kept fresh ideas flowing. Lee has significantly less experience and credibility to form a functioning government than even The Greens locally.
This is the fourth election where pundits have expected an “it’s time” vote was expected to take down Labor, and like the last 3 there’s been no polling to back up that narrative.
Think a largely status quo result. Most interesting thing that could happen is Labor gets an alternative path to government that isn’t the Greens.
@Blue Not John Labor and the Greens have a coalition in the ACT and the Independents for Canberra said they wouldn’t support a Labor government so no there is no other path to government for Labor.
Less than a month to go and still no opinion poll, the last election cycle had two polls conducted in 2020. The closest I could find was a
Reddit poll under r/Canberra with a total of 978 votes. Which follows
Labor: 292 (29.86%)
Greens: 337 (34.46%)
Liberals: 125 (12.78%)
Independents: 142 (14.52%)
Other: 82 (8.38%)
https://www.reddit.com/r/canberra/comments/1b3crxp/who_do_you_intend_to_vote_for_in_the_2024_act/
that first reddit poll I mentioned was 7 months ago, the most recent one was 24 days ago with 253 votes and it goes as followed
Labor: 81 (32.02%)
Liberals: 33 (13.04%)
Greens: 91 (35.97%)
Independent: 48 (18.97%)
https://www.reddit.com/r/canberra/comments/1ez1tgz/who_do_you_intent_on_voting_for_at_the_act/
For the Liberals to win off the back of an “It’s Time” movement, they’d need a more charismatic, visionary leader plus a completely ailing, scandal-ridden Labor government.
ACT Greens perform better electorally than the other state/territory Greens but there’s no way they’d overtake the Liberals, let alone Labor in seat numbers or primary votes. In fact, the Greens are in for a fight in Brindabella. I don’t rate the Independents for Canberra that highly, for reasons I outlined previously in this thread.
@Caleb that’s extremely inaccurate though, Reddit is a left-wing hole hence why I only talk about sport and gaming on there and not politics. On the multiple occasions where I said I was voting Liberal I got downvoted and criticised in the comments. Someone on the r/Tasmania subreddit even suggested that the Tasmanian Liberals were “protecting pedos” when someone endorsed the Liberals for re-election. We’ve discussed how stupid Reddit is before on here.
Labor and Greens are in a governing agreement in the ACT but that’s renegotiated every term – very different from the Liberals/Nationals relationship. It’s quite plausible if Labor can get to 13 seats without the Greens they will shut them out. ALP majority isn’t off the table (though less likely than other elections), and whatever is said pre election if Labor + independents = 13 then I don’t see that leading to nothing.
@ Blue Not John
I think the Labor party will prefer the Greens as a partner to independents since it is a durable relationship at an ACT level and has lasted 16 years. Labor has only once won a majority in 2004 and i dont think it is possible again as major party vote has declined they will need to win 3 seats in each electorate which is a stretch.
Labor won’t get to 13 seats – if they have a really good day in Brindabella and the Liberals a bad day in Gininderra they may get to 12 seats. neither of the two most plausible Independents wins, Stefaniak in Gininderra and Carrick in Murrumbidgee are a natural fit with Labor, particularly Stefaniak.
Labor wins 3 in Ginninderra often (and was nearly 3-1-1 in 2020), won 3 in Yerrabi in 2016, and came within a handful of votes of winning 3 in Brindabella in 2020.
I am assuming that the new 2020 Greens will consolidate their vote and get reelected, but that didn’t happen in 2012. Nuttall is vulnerable in Brindabella.
A higher independent vote will only prevent a majority if it leads to them winning seats.
Point being, I don’t think ALP majority can be ruled out (3 in B, G, Y). It’s unlikely if the Greens are strong in Yerrabi over Palestine.
What could also happen is Labor get 12 (3-1-1 in Ginninderra and they get a 3rd in Brindabella off Greens), and then a non Green independent gets elected somewhere (probably Carrick in Murrumbidgee). Despite a good working relationship, wider animosity between the two parties might lead Barr to seek to lock Greens out. Mid term, some of the other leadership contenders might be more hostile to Greens (Yvette Berry comes to mind) and kick them out of government like in Tasmania 2014.
Labor is more Hostile to Greens in other States/Territories as there is a working class vote. Because the Greens-Labor Coaltion has been stable it maybe a risky strategy to do that.
Independent vote is a bigger risk to the Liberals than the Greens – If Belco party win in Ginnindera it will be at the expense of the Liberals. Carrick if elected in Murrumbidgee is most likely to so at the expense of the Liberals – in 2020 she creamed the Liberal vote while Labor & Greens both increased their vote. In Kurrajong a spread of votes to Independents might cruel the Liberals chance of clawing back there second Greens seat
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8774156/full-list-of-2024-act-election-candidates-revealed/?cs=14225
Candidate list is out
Hot take a week out from prepoll.
Incoming hot take based purely on vibes and my views of how Canberra has grown.
Brindabella: 2-2-1 (Green Nuttall just hangs on and outlasts IFC, Liberals best seat but not enough for 3)
Murrumbidgee: 2-1-1-1 (Carrick wins at the expense of Liberals, Greens over the line when IFC is spilled)
Kurrajong: 2-1-2 (IFC’s best seat, but all incumbents fly close enough to quota)
Ginninderra: 2-1-2 (Very splintered and leaky right, Greens do well on strong incumbent, renters+young families, and IFC preferences)
Yerrabi: 3-1-1 (Greens do very well on Muslim vote and light rail suburbs but not enough for 2, Labor the main beneficiary when IFC drops out, Liberals lose Coe leader bonus and Labor can pull off a Ginninderra effect)
Total:
Labor 11
Greens 7
Liberals 6
Carrick
Status quo, though interestingly if one Liberal or Green defects (or Ginninderra is 3-1-1) then Labor has another path to pass legislation.
This prediction is based on no polling, but so is everyone else’s.
I have read some of the prognostications with interest. I happen to live in the ACT. As Malcolm Mackerras noted the ACT is a lop-sided jurisdiction. Antony Green seems to think some change is likely here. The fact the ALP has been in power for 23 years is now a serious negative for them. In ACT elections the ALP and Greens vote in total is markedly less than federally (and has always been so). In most elections their total combined vote rarely gets to 50%. The federal ALP is now a drag on them as happened in 1995 and the Liberals managed to win again in 1998 as they performed well. In 2012 the federal ALP was a drag and the Greens lost all but one of their seats. This time the plethora of independents will drag down the Green vote.
The university of the third age (U3A) had a candidates debate on Tuesday 1 October. The ALP only sent a candidate and not a minister to defend their record. The Greens tried to pretend they are not part of the government and so when claiming they will deliver public housing it does not match the 12 year ALP/Greens coalition performance of actually reducing public housing dwelling numbers, let alone rising housing unaffordability due to their land release policies. A prognostication of the ALP and Greens gaining seats does not match up with ineffectual low profile Greens campaigning and ALP ministers and candidates dropping off Labor colours and naming on their corflutes.
On any measure the ACT is a high taxed low performing jurisdiction on any measure (health, education, transport, urban services). The tram which was originally a Green idea has become a object of ridicule. It is and is seen as a major failure and a large part of the reason of the governments failure to deliver other services. Its seen to be out of touch, and many ALP members I have encountered find it indefensible. A cack-handed attack ad on independents during a recent NRL game back-fired with rightly miffed independents rebuking the ALP. All the independents cite the ALP and Greens failings and none even suggest supporting them.
Ironically the most damaging critic of the ALP/Greens is a former Labor Chief Minister Jon Stanhope. Relentlessly critical, serious analysis across all aspects of the ACT government in a local paper City News.
Should the ALP and Greens manage to retain power it would come as a surprise.
It will be a definite Labor and greens govt retain. Can’t see the libs gaining power anytime soon.
My predictions Labor 9 liberals 8 green 7 +Carrick.
@Martin – I think Stanhope becoming a critic undercuts the 23 years attack. The government has undergone a lot of internal renewal especially with Greens. The longest serving MLA is Barr himself – he’s younger than both Albanese and Dutton. A lot of the front bench was elected much more recently than that. At the very least 2001-2008 (Labor majority) is a different government to the current Labor/Green cooperation. I’d argue 2008-2020 also different – Rattenbury had a ministry for 8 of those years but it still seemed like a Labor government with a Greens minister than the actual Labor/Green government of the last 4. The government does not “feel” old – the Liberals wouldn’t need to remind people it’s been 23 years if it did.
The only non branded ALP materials I’ve seen are the unions ACT ones.
This is the 3rd or 4th light rail election – in particular Labor winning 3 in Yerrabi 2016 suggests to me that it isn’t a vote loser.
As you characterise the independents are being seen as more associated with Liberals and likely to back a Liberal government (which is what the attack ad was about). They might take a few votes from Labor/Greens, especially if Greens have difficulty articulating their approach to government (balancing wanting more and not undermining their cabinet colleagues), but I see most IFC voters being people that voted Liberal or 3rd party in 2012, 2016 or 2020. Which isn’t enough to challenge Labor/Green and I stand by my prediction a few posts up.
Really hoping to see a poll above all else
Labor was only ever in a majority between 2004-2008. The first term included a Democrats and Greens
Liberal shenanigans last week will reinforce a reluctance to vote for them by those who want a change. Looking electorate by electorate is hard to find the four seats the Liberals need to get a majority.
Brindabella – most vulnerable Greens seat – if they hold that seat they are in for a good night. Unless there is a substantial swing against Labor then I suspect that they will win this off the Greens. Liberals are a possibility
Yerrabi – hard to see any change here
Murrumbidgee – this could be status quo – if there is a charge by Carrick for a seat – it is out likely to be at the expense of the Liberals as most of her votes in 2020 came from the Liberals
Kurrajong – could be a status quo – redistribution helped Greens – if there is a vote for independents I expect it to be at the expense of Liberals
Ginninderra – this is a risk for the Liberals to lose a seat to either Belco or more remotely independent or Labor
My mistake. Point being the level of Greens influence has varied a lot over time – from confidence and supply, to nothing, to policy agreements, to ministries, to arguably a full coalition. The idea of a tired 23 year old government just doesn’t ring all that true with so much renewal
You are correct the Level of Greens influence did vary depending on the Ratio of Greens to Labor members in the Assembly. I do agree there is a lot of renewal during those 23 years.I think it is hard for Labor to win a majority again major vote has generally declined especially on the Left and they only did it once.
Albo being at the ALP launch will be quite damaging to them. The votes may not go to the Libs but the Greens could stand to gain. Albo is unpopular even in the territories. Every single state and territory he is unpopular. I would rank his popularity in each state from best to worst has follows,
1) South Australia
2) ACT
3) Western Australia
4) Victoria
5) New South Wales
6) Tasmania
7) Northern Territory
8) Queensland
He is unpopular even in ACT and South Australia but it’s not the worst. I am basing it off of state-breakdowns but also gut feeling. But it is beyond me why Barr thinks bringing in Albo will help him here, It won’t. Bringing in an unpopular PM only hurts your campaign.
You won’t see the Canberra Liberals bring in Dutton because that will hurt them too.
Uf Daniel t says albo is unpopular then he is unpopular take it to the bank
ACT politics is very local – Albo’s appearance at the ALP launch will have zero impact one way or the other. Most Canberrans would be totally ignorant about whether or not Albo appeared at the ALP launch and couldn’t care less
@Daniel T do you think he’s more unpopular in the ACT than in SA?
NP, Yes, SA has barely shifted since the election but ACT clearly has, It could be the popular state government in SA that is aiding Albo but you wouldn’t think so since popular state governments usually get the federal drag more than not.
The voice was popular here but definitely not the PM, green voters despise the PM due to his inaction on housing amd other issues, why do you think he gets into tense arguments with Mad Max in parliament allot? The 2 blokes clearly despise eachother.
The ALP primary vote in the ACT federally was only 44% and it likely has declined since the election, if green voters hate the PM, plus Liberal voters (No Nats in ACT) then you can see why he is unpopular in the territory.
ACT election will be settled on local issues. The standing of the PM will have very little to do with the outcome here. The issue of speeding up the extension of the light rail is a more important issue for Green voters than the standing of the PM
Doug, if that’s the case why was Gallagher a few thousand votes away from losing in 2012? Gillard was massively unpopular and it almost made Zed Seselja CM.
1 seat, few thousand votes from the last seat they needed in 2012.
@ Daniel T
In 2012, Labor actually increased its vote share and seat tally it was the Greens who actually lost support.
It will be interesting to see the act results against federal seats. Labor might be at risk of losing a seat or at. Very least be forced to spend needed resources
Nimalan, meaning a few thousand or so more votes for the Libs would’ve delivered their 9th seat back then, both Labor and Liberal were tied, I believe it wasn’t clear on the night who won it was later counting that guaranteed Labor was on 8 seats and Greens 1 = 9
Libs needed 1 more and Seselja would’ve been chief minister but likely would’ve only lasted 1 term and lost in a landslide in 2016.
It would’ve been Ginninderra where Libs got 33% Labor 39%, 3% swing or so to the Libs might have got them the 3rd seat which was about a few thousand votes.
Preferences would have just got the Libs their 3rd
Fair point they could have narrowly got the 9th seat for a bare majority. With an expanded parliament i think they need about 40% territory wide to get 11 or 12 seats.
Another Canberra resident here. I too have been observing with much interest.
I tend to agree that the “it’s time” factor isn’t biting due to the internal renewal in the Government. The ACT’s rapid growth means a good chunk of the electorate would have little to no memory of the Stanhope era. I also think there’s a lingering halo effect due to Barr’s effective handling of COVID especially during the 2021 lockdown.
My bet is it will be a largely status quo seat result (10 Labor, 8 Liberal, 5 Greens, 2 Independent/Other), with the Independents taking votes from all parties but more-so the Liberals:
Brindabella: 2-2-1-0. I expect this will return to type as Labor’s weakest electorate and the Liberals best chance at a 3rd seat. I think the Greens will be part beneficiaries of Labor voters peeling away, sufficient to hold their seat against the independents and 3rd Liberal.
Ginninderra: 2-1-1-1. Ongoing candidate troubles will cost the Liberals their 2nd seat which I think goes to Bill Stefaniak (Belco party). Outside chance of Heidi Prowse (3rd Labor) getting up if Ginninderra effect plays out. Ex-Liberal Elizabeth Kikkert running for Family First is a wildcard but the circumstances of her expulsion from the Liberal party don’t paint her in the best light in a town that values integrity.
Kurrajong: 2-1-1-1. The 3 leader boosts all largely cancel each other out. I think IFC’s Thomas Emerson takes the final seat over Greens’ Vasarotti on preferences.
Murrumbidgee: 2-2-1-0. Fifth seat is a contest between Greens’ Davidson and Independent Fiona Carrick. I think Davidson has the edge due to splintering of independent votes with IFC, population growth and new residents, and the Liberals’ and Carrick’s anti-Light Rail stance.
Yerrabi: 2-2-1-0. The Liberal vote will drop back from Alistair Coe’s leader boost from 2020. The DLP’s position on the ballot paper will again cost Labor an outside chance of a 3rd seat.
If the independents over-perform at the Greens’ expense (say both blocs have 3 seats apiece), Labor will potentially have two pathways to form government. Will be interesting to see how the independents react – will they bite at the chance to actually change and influence government policy, or reinforce Labor’s message that they are pseudo-Liberals?
Early voting is now open in the ACT.
I thought that this was interesting too. I understand it’s a list of proposals, and may be much harder to actually implement than to suggest, but it does show what the different groups are thinking and talking about- and how these ideas have been received:
https://citynews.com.au/2024/indies-top-the-amas-health-policy-scorecard/
I’m expecting a large swing away from Labor with the Greens, Liberals and Independents picking up seats I do feel that now is better then ever for the Liberals to win here this weekend, however its not an easy task achieve.
@spacefish i feel that there is an outside chance for the libs to govern with the independents
Are there any exit polls coming out of the ACT?
not that i know f but i believe there may be some sort of shift among the left which would see the greens gain seats at the expense of labor. maybe not nough to push them into the lead partner but probably something close and then they would likely topple them in 2028
For the Liberals to win they need to either:
* Get a majority
* Form a minority government with Belco and/or independents (if at least one independent or Belco candidate is elected the Liberals will be in the box seat to form a minority government should they win the most seats)
They also need to win the most seats, because Labor can always count on the Greens if they have the possibility of forming government.
Just to throw out my prediction after speaking with my mates who live in Canberra (they are all fairly progressive voters and public servants at the federal or territory level so that might skew my impressions).
I’ll go for a 9-7-6-3 split.
Two Paths for the Liberals to Victory. Need an extra 4 seats. Almost impossible for a majority Liberal but there is two paths for a Liberal minority
Path A
1. Hold all Current seats
2. Pick up the third seat in Brindabella (strongest Liberal area)
3. Pick up a second seat in Kurrajong
4. Belco party win a seat in Ginnadera they win the last seat of the Greens
5. Fiona Carrick wins a seat in Murrumbidgee
Path B
1. Hold all Current seats
2. Pick up a third seat in Brindabella (best chance)
3. Fail to win a second seat in Kurrajong but Thomas Emerson wins it instead
4. Belco party wins a seat in Ginnaderra of the Greens
5. Fiona Carrick wins a seat in Murrmbidgee
I cant see Liberals winning a third seat in Yerrabi i believe the Greens will be strong enough this time due Palestine among Muslims to hold the final seat also being a CALD area i dont think it will be easy for an independent to build a profile so status quo. Opposing the light rail to Woden will hurt Libs in Murrumbidgee so i cant see them winning a third seat best to hope for Fiona Carrick to win instead.
If even one those steps above fail it is Game Over for Libs.
Agree Nimalan, the only pathway to win for the Liberals is in minority with any successful independents (Fiona Carrick, ex Liberal MP Bill Stefaniak and maybe one of the IFC candidates with Thomas Emerson as the lead one being strongest). This was how they won under Kate Carnell as she governed with the support of 2 or 3 independents (Michael Moore, Paul Osborne and Dave Rugendyke). Osborne and Rugendyke were conservative leaning, just like Carrick and Stefaniak whilst Michael Moore was a centrist in a similar mould to the teals and David Pocock.
Under Kate Carnell as Liberal leader in the 1995 and 1998 elections, Labor still performed reasonably well holding 6 out of 17 Assembly seats but only one Greens member was elected. In this election, the independents will need to take seats off either Labor (forcing them down to 7 or 8 seats) or the Greens. Perhaps a combination of gains from both Labor and Greens may be required.
I can’t see where the gains from Labor will come – they have got a substantial buffer in all five electorates.
The Liberals have to win seats off the Greens – Brindabella is their best chance & Kurrajong next in line. the problem the Liberals have is Ginninderra – this is the most interesting seat and one where an independent could get up – probably at the expense of the Liberals.
The other seat to watch is Murrumbidgee – if Carrick is to get her vote up far enough where are they going to come from? She got most of her votes in 2020 off the Liberals not the Greens or Labor – if she takes substantial votes off the Liberals there could be a three way battle for two seats between Liberals, Greens & Carrick