Brindabella – Australia 2016

Incumbent MPs contesting Brindabella

  • Joy Burch (Labor)
  • Mick Gentleman (Labor)
  • Nicole Lawder (Liberal)
  • Andrew Wall (Liberal)

Geography
Brindabella covers the outer southern suburbs of Canberra. Brindabella largely covers the Tuggeranong district, including Gordon, Conder, Calwell, Fadden, Macarthur and Wanniassa. Brindabella also covers the town of Tharwa, and the unpopulated southern territories that cover a majority of the ACT’s land mass.

Redistribution
Brindabella previously covered a larger area, including Kambah, Torrens and Farrer. These suburbs were transferred to the new seat of Murrumbidgee, along with suburbs from the former electorate of Molonglo.

History
The electorate of Brindabella was created in 1995, when the ACT electoral system was changed to introduce multi-member districts for the first time. The seat covered almost exactly the same area from 1995 until 2012, having undergone two minor redistributions prior to the 2001 and 2008 elections.

Brindabella has always elected two Labor MLAs and two Liberal MLAs. The fifth seat has alternated between the two major parties and crossbenchers.

In 1995, the fifth seat was won by independent candidate Paul Osborne, a former rugby league player running as a social conservative. Osborne was re-elected in 1998.

Labor won a third seat in 2001, and maintained that seat in 2004, which helped Labor win a majority for the first time in ACT history.

Labor lost their third seat in 2008, with the Greens’ Amanda Bresnan winning the final seat.

The Liberal Party won a third seat at the Greens’ expense in 2012, in part thanks to party leader Zed Seselja switching to Brindabella from Molonglo. This is the only time the Liberal Party has won a majority of seats in an ACT electorate.

Candidates

  • A – Sustainable Australia
    • Claude Hastir
    • Melissa Kemp
  • B – Liberal
    • Ed Cocks
    • Annette Fazey-Southwell
    • Nicole Lawder*
    • Mark Parton
    • Andrew Wall*
  • C – Animal Justice
    • Sarah O’Brien
    • Robyn Soxsmith
  • D – Like Canberra
    • Timothy Friel
    • Richard Tuffin
  • E – Labor
    • Joy Burch*
    • Angie Drake
    • Mick Gentleman*
    • Karl Maftoum
    • Taimus Werner-Gibbings
  • F – Liberal Democrats
    • Matt Donnelly
    • Jacob Gowor
    • Greg Renet
    • Vera Saragih
    • Matt Straschko
  • G – Greens
    • Johnathan Davis
    • Michael Mazengarb
    • Ben Murphy
  • H – Sex Party
    • Steven Bailey
    • Monique Shepherd
  • Ungrouped
    • Andrew Holt
    • Joel McKay

Assessment
The Liberal Party has two safe seats, and Labor has one safe seat. The redistribution gave the Liberal Party a boost at the expense of Labor and the Greens. It is likely that the second Labor seat will be reasonably safe, with the Liberal Party leading for the last seat. The Greens are the most likely threat for that fifth seat, but would require a sizeable swing to be a threat.

2012 result

2012 election Redistribution
Party Votes % Quota Swing % Quota
Liberal 29,496 46.4 2.784 +11.1 47.3 2.836
Labor 22,665 35.7 2.139 +0.8 35.3 2.117
Greens 5,032 7.9 0.475 -5.7 7.4 0.445
Motorist Party 2,488 3.9 0.235 -3.1 4.1 0.243
Bullet Train for Canberra 2,395 3.8 0.226 +3.8 3.7 0.220
Others 1,486 2.3 0.140 2.3 0.139
Informal 2,631 4.0

Booth breakdown

Polling places in the Brindabella have been split into three parts: north east, north west and south.

The Liberal Party topped the poll in all three areas in 2012, with a vote ranging from 43% in the north west to 50% in the north east.

Labor’s vote ranged from 33.7% in the north east to 37.9% in the north west. The greens vote ranged from 6% in the south to 8% in the north west.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
North East 50.1 33.7 6.6 8,717 18.5
North West 43.1 37.9 7.9 11,088 23.5
South 49.3 35.3 5.9 10,306 21.8
Pre-poll 48.3 34.6 7.7 12,748 27.0
Other votes 44.3 33.7 10.4 4,313 9.1

Election results in Brindabella at the 2012 ACT election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

12 COMMENTS

  1. A couple of errors: The first word of the Geography paragraph should be “Brindabella” not “Kurrajong”. The first word of the Redistribution paragraph should be “Brindabella” not “Ginninderra”.

  3. I thought this would easily be 3 Liberal 2 Labor but losing Brendan Smyth opens it up, and Labor got strong swings here in the federal election.

    Labor has a chance at a majority if they win a third seat here and Greens probably can’t stop them.

  5. Thanks Frank, regulars here will tell you that I don’t usually have time to be constantly updating candidate lists. I’m working on stuff for a few other elections which are before the ACT – I’ll update the list closer to election day.

  6. Hello everyone,

    I have had several suggest I look at this site, which I have read with concern.

    In the interests of fairness please allow me to make the following comments, as I would hate to see anyone misslead by the incomplete projections and comments being made.

    I think the assumptions made are wildly based on incomplete and mostly irrelevant information. It does not take into account numerous critical factors which directly effect Brindabella voters since the last ACT Election, such as Andrew Barr, the Tram and many other examples of the community not being listened too.
    And yes clearly the fact their are two very good Independent Candidates running which includes me, is an obvious fundamental flaw in the commentary and assertions being made here in relation to and outcome of coming election on the 15 of October. It also ignors the current mood and views of voters right across Canberra against major parties.
    Please feel free to find out more on my website andrewholt.com.au
    Happy to answer any questions.
    Kind regards,
    Andrew Holt
    Independent Candidate for Brindabella.

  8. Andrew I think misunderstands the nature of this website. The information supplied by Ben is factual, looks at possibilities given the general level of political support for the major parties but makes no attempt at a comprehensive assessment of the factors that may influence voting trends. There are lots of uncertainties including the number of independents and minor parties mostly related to where they will take votes from, how many they take and how widely the preferences scatter. Given the swing to the Liberals last time in this seat it is difficult to see them getting a significant swing. They would on the other hand need to lose a lot of votes to independents and minor parties to be at risk of losing the third seat.

    If the Liberals don’t hold the third seat in this electorate they will have difficulty getting into government. Labor has the advantage that the minor party financed by the clubs in the ACT and running against labor has no candidates standing in this seat.

  9. The ACT is rarely polled at a territory level. Unless we get a Canberra Times poll in the run up to the election none of us has anything more than an impressionistic and anecdotal evidence of going on – assertions about a mood in Canberra against the major parties to the contrary. We just don’t know – The Federal election suggested that the vote for minor parties in the ACT was proportionally less in the ACT than other states.That at the moment is the only polling information we have of any currently.

    My suspicion is that each electorate will show differing swings and perhaps in differing directions

  10. I got polled by Galaxy about a month ago but I haven’t seen any published results.

    In the federal election there was a Morgan poll of both federal seats, and it was off by quite a bit (as it was in almost every seat they polled).

    As I said before, the only reason to think that Brindabella won’t be 3 Liberal 2 Labor is the very surprising and strong swings towards Labor in the federal election in Tuggeranong booths. Still the Liberals’ key campaign issues and very well funded messages speak directly to Tuggeranong.

    My overall election prediction is:
    12 Labor (3 seats in Ginninderra and 3 in Yerrabi)
    11 Liberal (3 seats in Brindabella)
    2 Green (a seat in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee)

    Yerrabi could go either way but the outcome would still be a Labor-Green government (though probably a formal coalition instead of a minority government if Liberals have more seats than Labor).

  11. I got polled by Galaxy about a month ago but I haven’t seen any published results.

    In the federal election there was a Morgan poll of both federal seats, and it was off by quite a bit (as it was in almost every seat they polled).

    As I said before, the only reason to think that Brindabella won’t be 3 Liberal 2 Labor is the very surprising and strong swings towards Labor in the federal election in Tuggeranong booths. Still the Liberals’ key campaign issues and very well funded messages speak directly to Tuggeranong.

    My overall election prediction is:
    12 Labor (3 seats in Ginninderra and 3 in Yerrabi)
    11 Liberal (3 seats in Brindabella)
    2 Green (a seat in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee)

    Yerrabi could go either way but the outcome would still be a Labor-Green government (though probably a formal coalition instead of a minority government if Liberals have more seats than Labor).

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