The election to the Welsh Assembly produced a very different result to that for the Scottish Parliament.
Labour has been in power in Wales since the establishment of the Assembly in 1999. Labour governed as a minority from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2003 to 2007. From 2000 to 2003 they shared power with the Liberal Democrats. Since 2007, Labour has governed with Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru.
This election saw a decline in support for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats, with Labour and the Conservatives gaining seats. Overall Labour won 30 of 60 seats, which will guarantee they will form government, but they may have to work with another party to ensure a stable majority.
Amongst constituency seats, Labour won 28 seats, up from 24 in 2007. Labour gained a seat from both the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in Cardiff, gained the independent seat of Blaenau Gwent in South Wales, and the Plaid Cymru seat of Llanelli.
The Conservatives performed well overall. They lost Cardiff North to Labour but gained the North Wales seat of Aberconwy from Plaid Cymru and the Mid Wales seat of Montgomeryshire from the Liberal Democrats.
Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats each lost two constituency seats.
Labour overall gained a swing, 10% in the constituency vote and 7% in the regional vote. They maintained their two list seats, both in Mid and West Wales, which is the only region in Wales where Labour didn’t dominate.
The Conservatives gained small swings to them and gained seats, but the result was a disaster for party leader Nick Bourne. The party gained two extra seats overall, going from 12 seats to 14 and making them the second-largest party. In Mid and West Wales, Bourne headed the Conservative party list, which has previously elected him to the Assembly. The party was again entitled to three seats in this region, just like in 2007. But as a third Conservative won a constituency in the region, Bourne did not win a seat on the list, and won’t sit in the new Assembly.
Plaid Cymru appear to have suffered as the junior partner in the coalition government. They suffered a negative 3.1% swing on both ballots. This cost them two constituency seats, and a further two seats on the regional list. Their seat numbers have been reduced from 15 to 11, putting them in third place behind the Conservatives.
The result was bad for the Liberal Democrats, but much less severe than the thrashing they suffered in Scotland. While they lost two of their three constituency seats, they gained a fourth regional list seat, which meant that overall they only lost a net one seat, for a total of five.
Overall the result is very positive for Labour, who have shored up their position in government after twelve years and continue to dominate Welsh politics.
