Canada 2011: results

1:58pm – The CBC has called Saanich-Gulf Islands for Elizabeth May. 35 seats are yet to be called. I’m working on my map to produce a results summary later this afternoon so I’ll stop this liveblog now.

1:24pm – Green Party leader Elizabeth May is currently leading by about 10% over Conservative minister Gary Lunn in the constituency Saanich-Gulf Islands. She looks like following in the steps of Caroline Lucas, Adam Bandt and Jamie Parker, who were all the first Greens to win single-member electorates in their Parliament. I believe she is the first Green to ever win a seat in a Canadian parliament, provincial or federal.

12:51pm – The CBC has now called a majority government for the Conservatives, which will bring some stability to Canadian politics after their most unstable election since 1993.

12:31pm – The Bloc Quebecois, who won 49 of 75 seats in the province in 2008, are currently only leading in four seats.

12:19pm – The NDP’s previous record number of seats was 43 in 1988. They came closest to that with 37 in 2008. They are currently leading in 98. The NDP won their first seat in Quebec at a 2007 by-election and currently only hold one seat, but they are leading now in 55 Quebec seats.

12:12pm – CBC has called that the New Democratic Party will form the official opposition.

12:10pm – It looks very likely that the Conservatives will win a majority.

12:04pm – If you assume the Conservatives win all of the seats they currently hold that are yet to report, it puts them over a majority.

12:00pm – The ban is about to be lifted. Apparently the Conservatives are on 129 seats, which puts them very close to a majority, with 86 seats left to report. The NDP has got twice as many seats as the Liberals.

11:53am – Now that polls have closed in most of the country we are getting a lot of figures. The latest figures I’ve seen reported by a lot of Canadians on Twitter is CON 70, NDP 30, LIB 29, BQ 4. Clearly the NDP are performing very strongly. It’s not known where these seats are coming from, so it’s not known whether the BQ figures are as bad as they look. The ban is lifted in seven minutes.

10:45am – It appears that all seats in the Maritime Provinces have now been called, with Bernard Keane reporting 13 CON, 12 LIB and 7 NDP. This is compared to 17 LIB, 10 CON and 4 NDP in 2008, giving the NDP 3 extra seats and the Conservatives three also. One of the Conservative seats came from an independent, who was replaced by a Conservative at a 2009 by-election. It appears we will get no more results until close to the end of the blackout.

10:06am – Poll closing times vary between provinces in order to minimise the time between the first polls closing and the last polls closing. Polls close at 9:30pm in Toronto and Montreal but only 7pm in Vancouver. Polls have already closed in the Maritime Provinces. Polls will close at 11:30am AEST in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba and 12pm in British Columbia. This means we won’t get much more except for the Maritime Provinces, as I doubt there will be solid results in those five provinces in that half an hour. We will have a lot to report at midday.

9:58am – There’s a report that the NDP’s Ryan Cleary has gained the Liberal seat of St. John’s South—Mount Pearl in Newfoundland.

9:55am – It should be made clear that thanks to censorship there is no way to verify these results. I still haven’t received any directly myself.

9:47am – Bernard Keane has begun posting results. It appears most initial results came from Newfoundland and Labrador, but he is now reporting overall seat numbers of 6 Liberal, 3 Conservative, 3 NDP. It’s far too early to say. The Liberals were the biggest party last time in Newfoundland (6/7), Prince Edward Island (3/4) and New Brunswick (5/11) so it’s not exactly a representative sample of seats, but 3 seats so far for the NDP is good. Overall he has reported three specific riding results, in Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, Random—Burin—St. George’s and St John’s East, two of them Liberal and the other NDP, and in all three the incumbent has been re-elected.

9:43am – Vote-counting has begun in Canada. At the moment it is illegal for Canadians to post results, so no official results have been posted. However, Bernard Keane of Crikey has been receiving results via Twitter, and I have begun analysing these. You can also email me at canada@tallyroom.com.au and I will post them here and on Twitter.

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