There are a number of seats that are in doubt after last night’s counting.
Balmain – Balmain is the most interesting seat of the election at the moment. At time of writing, the Liberal candidate James Falk leads on 32.3%, with sitting Labor MP Verity Firth on 30.7%, only 86 votes ahead of Greens candidate Jamie Parker. The current two-party preferred count has Firth leading over Falk with 51%. However, if Parker were to overtake Firth either on the primary vote count or on preferences from minor candidates such as Maire Sheehan, it would be an entirely different contest. Parker would be favoured to win, but it is hard to know.
East Hills – Sitting Labor MP Alan Ashton suffered a 14.1% two-party-preferred swing, which puts him two votes behind Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes.
Maroubra – Sitting Labor MP Michael Daley is 1215 votes ahead of Liberal candidate Michael Feneley.
Monaro – Nationals candidate John Barilaro is 603 votes ahead of Labor MP Steve Whan.
Newcastle – Newcastle Lord Mayor John Tate, who came close to winning in 2007, suffered a 12.6% swing and has come fourth in the seat. Liberal candidate Tim Owen is 674 votes ahead of Labor MP Jodi Mckay.
Oatley – Liberal candidate Mark Coure is 332 votes ahead of Labor MP Kevin Greene.
Swansea – Liberal candidate Garry Edwards is 491 votes ahead of Labor MP Robert Coombs.
Toongabbie – Labor MP and former premier Nathan Rees is 485 votes ahead of Liberal candidate Kirsty Lloyd.
Wollongong – Independent candidate Gordon Bradbery is 138 votes ahead of Labor MP Noreen Hay.
Would appear that all seats listed by Ben are decided in terms of who was ahead except for:
Wollongong – appears that the ALP will win.
East Hills – too close but Lib ahead by 216
Oatley – too close but Lib ahead by about 230
Balmain – who knows? Libs are the least likely given expected preference flows.
It’s very similar in Marrickville too, Labor’s legislative council vote is about 29%, 10% behind the primary vote for Carmel Tebutt.
Big News: The ABC has just awarded Wollongong to Gordon Bradbury.
Hawkeye, just checked & Wollongong has changes to ALP ahead.
Toongabbie was taken off Seats in doubt & has now re appeared along with Wollongong. The ABC has jumped the gun
Final tally will be as follows
Coalition- 69 seats
ALP- 21 seats
Independent’s- 3 seats
Greens- Thanks for coming!
In Oatley the Liberal is 318 votes in front with about 5000 to be counted. Just about all over there.
And then there were two. Might have to check out Wollongong. Newcastle is certainly a Liberal gain.
4 seats in doubt- East Hills, Oatley, Balmain & Wollongong
Lopo – agree on Wollongong. Hay ahead by about 260 or so. Narrowed considerably after some postals. Could go either way as the flow seems to be all Bradbury and about 4000 still to be counted.
Hay 263 ahead, with 4,000 still to be counted then anything can happen. Don’t be surprised if the result goes to Labor that a protest will go in as apparently Liberal HTV were tampered with when someone or a group put number 2 next to Hay. not sure what booth this happened in, but apparently the proof is there.
DB you may have more on this story
Lopo: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/labor-told-to-stop-handing-out-fake-cards-20110326-1cas6.html
Verity’s primary vote lead over Parker now back to 117 with 78% counted. ABC gives it to Verity over Falk (lib) by 497 votes; however 2000 independent votes will need to be distributed one at a time (if they dont exhaust), so we won’t know til Friday….
Addition of declared institution votes has pushed Verity lead over Parker up to 139. Still no absentee votes counted yet, which should favour Greens.
NSWEC main site doesn’t seem to be updating Balmain count, but you can find the latest data here:
ftp://ftp.elections.nsw.gov.au/Results/VEMADB1.PRD2008/SG1101/EML/LA/510/CURRENT/
Primary vote postals just counted in East Hills. Brookes will increase his lead from 216 to around 400 votes. Getting harder for Ashton.
Why is nobody reporting on the SWING TO LABOR in Pittwater!! Increased Primary vote by 1.6%.Someone at head office should get Pat Boydell a drink.
Hi DB, any update from Wollongong? Latest on ABC shows hay leading by about 268.
Latest 2pp (real count):
HAY Noreen ALP Australian Labor Party (NSW Branch) 16,439
BRADBERY Gordon 16,171
Exhausted votes 8,412
Do you think Hay will hold?
Lopo – no, but I think this could end up being the closest. While there would be only around 3000 votes to count, pre-polls and postals are very strongly in favour of Bradbery by 60/40. A continued 60/40 split on 3000 votes would give Bradbury a 600 vote differential, giving him the seat.
The 4 remaining seats to be determined are:
East Hills: LP will be ahead by about 400 once preferencing of postals are done. So Libs ahead by 400 with about 4500 to count. Too close to call. Postals favouring the Liberals. Absentees to count.
Oatley: LP ahead by 321 with about 3500-4000 votes to count. Too close to call. Postals favouring the Liberals. Absentees to count.
Wollongong: ALP ahead by 268 with around 3000 votes to count. The closest with pre-polls and postals strongly favouring the Independent. Absentees to count.
Balmain: Firth ahead by 139 votes with absentees to be counted. Too close to call but the ALP favoured.
Presently, co-alition on 67, ALP on 19 and Independents on 3.
East Hills: Lib ahead of ALP
Oatley: Lib ahead of ALP
Wollongong: ALP ahead of Ind
Balmain: ALP ahead of Grn
Balmain ALP ahea of Lib, te greens are running third and so will be eliminated
Peter, both ABC and SEC haven’t updated since Monday, are you scrutineering? 800 is a lot of votes to have caught up from absentees, is that after preferences?
DB, you have been a great resource leading up to, during & after the election, actually you should become a politician, mate we could do with a new Liberal Member in North Shore.
Libs should have preferenced Bradbury in Wollongong, would have stopped the ALP writing 2 in next to Hay.
DB you can run as the Liberal Candidiate & I will run as the ALP Candidiate for North Shore (we will stack the branches & get our people in to vote for us as candidates). As like Smithfield (tongue in cheek) North Shore will become an ALP Seat (It’s good to dream)
Lopo: Are you active in Northern Sydney/North Shore right now in terms of Labor Organizing? Also how old are you? Aaaannnnddd (less important) what are your politics like?
Craymongoose I am not in any branch of the ALP, I am not sure if my area has a local branch. My involvement is on election day handing out which I did last year for Hugh Zochling in the Federal Election & also for Nathan Rees on Saturday.
I am late 30’s, born & bred lower Noth Shore resident.
A brief on my political history, I was always a supporter of the Libs up until 2 years ago where due to Workchoices I along with certain others were hard done by. From there on I vouched never to vote for The Libs again, I want to support a party that supports the little person, I do not like Big businesses taking advantage of the hard working employees who at the end of the day keep these businesses going. I do not agree with all there policies (especially the Carbon tax), but I will always support them & stand up for what i believe
My whole family is Liberal & always have a go at me for changing, but I cop it & stick up for what I believe.
Let’s just say that I grew up in a political family with a father who has been in local politics for 41 years, I have been through many election campaigns & have handed out many thousand HTV. I love politics (sad to say) & enjoy getting involved. My father who is very much Liberal was proud of me for travelling out to Seven Hills to hand out for Nathan Rees, he understands why I have changed & even though deep down it upsets him he respects my motives.
Hey, I was only joking saying I would run next election (would love to) but my wife would strangle me. As I have been saying. “There was no change in Govt. on Saturday, My wife is still in charge at my household”
Sorry for the lengthy respone Crazedmongoose
Good work DB and Lopo. This site is an oasis from the vitriol which informs debate on poll bludger. I did HTVs for a friend who is now a member of parliament on Saturday. All other persons, whatever their persuasion, made for great company. They make the whinging and slurring that some people think politics is all about seem out of touch and silly. Even the candidates mate up with one of the unsuccessful candidates coming to my friend’s celebration
Lopo – have no interest in running as a candidate and don’t think quickly enough on my feet. E-mail/blogging is a wonderful thing. Wouldn’t mind being a political adviser however.
My wife is a political advisor, she tells me what to say & do!
In all seriousness you would make a good advisor!
Hay wins Wollongong for the ALP: 441 votes ahead and couldn’t be more than 1000 to count.
ALP to 20. 3 in doubt.
Almost over in Wollongong:
HAY Noreen ALP Australian Labor Party (NSW Branch) 17,081
BRADBERY Gordon 16,639
Exhausted votes 8,799
ABC website has Oatley as a Liberal Gain
What is the chance of the Wollongong count being challenged if Noreen Hay wins, based on the allegations of Labor handing out fake how to vote cards?
I’d say the Reverend would be pretty silly not to challenge.
Liberals win East Hills.
They are still to 2PP the postal votes but given primaries on postals Brookes was 173 in front. Excluding all postals and after counting absentees, Brookes is 313 in front. So, overall he would be about 470-480 in front. There would be around 1000 left to count.
Well done Mr Brookes. All that hard work in those former years of mine has finally paid off.
Present Count is:
LNP 68
ALP 20
Ind 3
2 in doubt – Oatley Libs ahead by 321 still and must be favourite; Balmain – who knows (is it rude of me to say who cares except that I picked 21 for the ALP and would have bragging rights?).
DB, The ABC has Oatley & East Hills as a Lib Gain, Toongabbie as ALP Retain, thus leaving 1 seat as in doubt, that being Balmain which would be fair to say willbe ALP retain.
Basically all seats decided with only final margin to go (once all votes are counted)
Still plenty of absentee votes to come in Toongabbie but the margin was narrowing. This could have another twist.
It seems like the majority of the Absentee votes have been favouring the Coalition so those close seats might twist yet.
@docantk: The reason why no-one is reporting the 1.3% swing to the ALP in Pittwater is because that vote is a net gain purely from the independent that ran at the 2007 election (Alex McTaggert). Rob Stokes won the seat back after McTaggert won following the resignation of John Brogden. The Coalition ran a party fundraiser (Paul Nicolau) and payed the price for ignoring the people of Pittwater. Stokes then won the seat back and McTaggert didn’t run this time. So there is a big chunk of unclaimed independent vote that has spread itself around the major parties. It just so happens that the ALP made a net gain as there were more voters going back to the ALP candidate than leaving. Nothing to get excited about.
Considering Labor didn’t come second in Pittwater either election McTaggart was running in, and got their vote doubled by the Greens this time (yep, they’re the party who’ll have the great honour of being on the wrong end of a 25% 2pp margin to the Libs), I don’t imagine Labor would dare crow about it. In the absence of an independent who made them irrelevant, their vote barely shifted – McTaggart’s vote went more to Libs, with an option on Green. Labor’s hype merchants like to tell anybody who’ll listen how 90% of the population didn’t vote for the Greens. That might be their future in this area. Exactly the same applies to Manly, where at least Labor managed to get above 10%.
Firth lead over Green back to 47 votes after postals:
FIRTH Verity ALP Australian Labor Party (NSW Branch) 13,094
SHEEHAN Maire 1,317
FALK James LP Liberal Party of Australia New South Wales Division 14,124
GESLING Leeanne CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 400
WARD Jane 635
FOLKES Nicholas 268
PARKER Jamie GNS The Greens 13,047
SHAPIRO Jon 202
Informal votes 1,079
Hawkeye – new enrollment votes just counted in Toongabbie. I estimate after preferences of these that Rees will be about 300 votes in front with possibly 3000 votes to count. Probably safer than Oatley (Libs predicted) but not East Hills (which the Libs have now won). I’d say Rees is an 90% chance to hold from here.
The Balmain one is interesting though. Will Firth stay ahead of Parker? And can the Lib get enough preferences to hold on……doubt it.
Balmain after 4057 postals (10am Thursday): Firth leads green by 40 on primary vote:
Postals:
FIRTH Verity ALP Australian Labor Party (NSW Branch) 1,205
SHEEHAN Maire 91
FALK James LP Liberal Party of Australia New South Wales Division 1,367
GESLING Leeanne CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 35
WARD Jane 67
FOLKES Nicholas 22
PARKER Jamie GNS The Greens 1,205
SHAPIRO Jon 21
Informal votes 41
Primary vote 10am Thursday:
FIRTH Verity ALP Australian Labor Party (NSW Branch) 13,111
SHEEHAN Maire 1,317
FALK James LP Liberal Party of Australia New South Wales Division 14,140
GESLING Leeanne CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 401
WARD Jane 636
FOLKES Nicholas 268
PARKER Jamie GNS The Greens 13,071
SHAPIRO Jon 202
Informal votes 1,080
I agree with Pickle. I got on really well with Robertson and Siljeg throughout the campaign and on election day. Ours after-party and Robertson’s both ended up being at Blacktown RSL, Robertson invited me down to the private room his party was in for a chat and a couple of beers.
Rees 289 votes in front with about 3000 to count I’d assume.
In Balmain that is only 85% of the vote counted. It appears that after preference distributions it will be LIB v either ALP or Grn. Might be hard for the Grn given I’d expect most of Sheehan’s preferences to flow to the ALP with a few to the Libs.
Latest Balmain Primary (150pm Thursday): Firth over green by 39 votes
FIRTH Verity ALP Australian Labor Party (NSW Branch) 13,112
SHEEHAN Maire 1,317
FALK James LP Liberal Party of Australia New South Wales Division 14,140
GESLING Leeanne CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 401
WARD Jane 636
FOLKES Nicholas 268
PARKER Jamie GNS The Greens 13,073
SHAPIRO Jon 202
Informal votes 1,080
Antony Green also says if the third placed candidate after primaries wins, it would be a first for OPV in NSW (see his blog at http://www.abc.net.au)
Rees (Toongabbie) seems to have won by around 180 votes.
Brookes (East Hills) has won by around 450 votes
Oatley still has the Lib 321 votes up with 96% of the vote counted.
There must be more votes to be counted in Balmain surely? 51000 enrolled and the vote counted is 44000 (only 86%).
What happens if Firth and Parker gets the same vote? Will they both exhaust and falk win the seat?
dovif – mmm…….very interesting comment that!
Rumour has it Parker has squeaked in front of Firth
7th schedule to the NSW Constitution:
10 (1) Where, on any count at which the candidate with the fewest number of votes has to be excluded, 2 or more candidates have an equal number of votes (that number being fewer than the number of votes that any other candidate has or those candidates being the only continuing candidates):
(a) such one of those candidates as had the fewest number of votes at the last count at which they did not have an equal number of votes shall be excluded, or
(b) if they had an equal number of votes at all preceding counts, the candidate whose name is on a slip drawn in accordance with subclause (2) of this clause shall be excluded.
(2) For the purposes of subclause (1) of this clause, the names of the candidates who have an equal number of votes having been written on similar slips of paper by the returning officer and the slips having been folded by him so as to prevent the names being seen and having been mixed, 1 of those slips shall be drawn at random by him.
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