NSW 2011: reckless predictions

1. Sportsbet latest: Labor to be routed in Western & South Western Sydney, holding only Toongabbie/Fairfield/Auburn/Canterbury/Blacktown/Bankstown.
   Strathfield: gone to the Liberals.
   Cessnock and Swansea: Sportsbet giving both to Labor.

2. Liberal odds are lengthening more in the Blue Mountains than any other comparable seat. I’ve heard from pre pollers that Mays has people handing out for her who are well known Liberal, ALP and Greens supporters. There was a slanging match at the pre poll booth in Springwood this week because a Liberal party member was busted by Sage handing out for Mays the Independent. People can’t get their heads around the Seat of the Blue Mountains because Mays has no leanings towards any of the parties. She will take this seat on first preferences is my reckless prediction.

3. Taylor – no, she should come second behind the Libs but she might get over the line on preferences. I wouldn’t take pre-poll as an indication of the election on the day.

4. DB – we’ll see. Remember this site is “reckless predictions” not “I know and you don’t”.

5. But what about Comrade Clover?

6. Firth will hang on in Balmain

7. Clover should be fine. Was at $1.20 last I checked.

8. Interesting to see so many people calling Balmain for the Libs. At $4.50 on Centrebet you could make a killing.

9. predict Labor has a chance of another 13
   greens have a strong chance of nil

10. Got it now Taylor.

    I’d suggest the co-alition are a chance of winning every seat bar 6. Now that, my fellow Tallyroom friends, is reckless!

11. Honestly, this is just not at all interesting. Close elections are much more fun, but how long is it going to be before we get another one of those in New South Wales?

    In fact, how long has it been since we’ve had one of those in New South Wales?

12. “Evan
    Posted March 24, 2011 at 5:07 PM

    Keneally and Hawke campaigning in Parramatta today, so Labor obviously hasn’t yet given up on the seat.”

    Keneally was also campaigning in Caringbah yesterday according to the local paper (seat of cronulla very safe 17.5% Liberal). I wouldn’t say just showing up is to say they think they have a chance.

    Also if worse case senario for labor and best case for indies, any chance of a loose indies opposition? (probs wacky thought but what in politics isn’t wacky lately)

    And as a comment both parites are horrid, Coalition will govern obviously and rightly but I hope the parliament is filled with people holding them to account and representing their constituents.

    Also any thoughts on the Upper house besides liberal control with help of cdp and shooters and fishers?

13. should have added reasonable in front of chance
    also possible independents Wagga Wagga, Blue Mountains & upper hunter

14. This will be the definitive end of the McKell model of Labor in NSW. Its the end of one of the most famous political machines in history to rival the end of Tammany Hall in New York last century.

    Boy I bet they regret knifing Iemma now? The boneheaded NSW unions own this defeat. Best of all they will probably think they can rebuild with Robbo – roflmao.

    This election is also unusual because people want to be absolutely certain the ALP is goorn to purgatory for a long time, its shades of Ireland with Fianna Fail in February. The Coalition vote has actually hardened not softened as the campaign went on. Do they really believe an orthodontically improved perky American is a good campaigner in HO after the term they’ve had?

    I think the doubtfuls will actually harden but the result will be 10-13 seats for Labor.

    Definite:

    Auburn
    Bankstown
    Blacktown
    Canterbury
    Shellharbour
    Fairfield
    Lakemba
    Mt Druitt
    Swansea
    Wallsend

    The three I think will be in doubt are: Maroubra, Heffron, Cabramatta. If you think KKK going down is unlikely think of it this way , how many preferences will flow her way and a net drop of 6000-8000 Labor votes (entirely likely) puts the seat in play.

    Nath is gone folks – he enters popular folklore as a trivia question after Saturday. The swing is just that enormous in Sydney.

15. If ALP lose Newcastle for the first time in it’s history then perhaps its total wipeout for labour in
    NSW

16. I was going to finalize my predictions tomorrow, but I might as well do them now:

    Labor: Lakemba, Cabramatta, Auburn, Canterbury, Liverpool, Mount Druitt, Bankstown, Heffron, Blacktown, Shellharbour, Fairfield, Wallsend, Toongabbie (13)
    Toss-up, Labor favoured: Campbelltown, Macquarie Fields, Maroubra (3)
    Independent: Sydney, Northern Tablelands, Newcastle, Lake Macquarie (4)
    Toss-up, Independent favoured: Charlestown, Wollongong, Swansea (3)
    Green: Balmain, Marrickville (2)
    Toss-up, Coalition favoured: Granville, Smithfield, Keira (3)
    Coalition: Everything else! 😀 (65)

    A few notes regarding my predictions:

    As much as I’d like to see Balmain go Liberal, and despite what people have been saying, I still think the Greens will win there.

    Garrard should increase his vote in Granville, which will make it easier for the Liberals to win.

    Charlestown is a reasonable chance of a Liberal win, but I think the Independent has a better chance. Ditto Swansea.

    Campbelltown I can see just falling short of a Liberal victory.

    Regarding Janet Mays and the Blue Mountains, has she said anything about who she’ll support in the unlikely event of a hung parliament?

    I expect Dubbo, Tamworth and Port Macquarie to go National, the latter two particularly courtesy of Mr. Windsor and Mr. Oakeshott.

    The Greens should finish second in Coogee and Blue Mountains (maybe not the latter courtesy of Mays), where the Liberals should win.

    Finally, I expect the Greens to finish 2nd in the following Coalition seats, in addition to Vaucluse and North Shore:
    Wakehurst, Manly, Ku-rin-gai, Davidson, Ballina, Lismore, Pittwater, Willoughby and possibly Hawkesbury and/or Lane Cove.

17. I disagree regarding Strathfield. There was a huge swing to the Liberals in this area are the 2010 federal election. The ALP vote in this seat is very inflated.

18. DB, I know that I have Granville on my Coalition list, but do you know how Garrard’s polling in relation to Issa and Borger at this late stage? I have a sneaking suspicion he may outpoll Borger, which is why I ask.

    A prediction for the Fairfield/Liverpool LGA seats on 2PP, as well as Riverstone and Hawkesbury.

    Fairfield 51.5/48.5 ALP
    Cabramatta 50.3/49.7 ALP
    Smithfield 52.8/47.2 ALP
    Liverpool 70.2/29.8 ALP
    Macquarie Fields 52/48 ALP
    Mulgoa 53.3/46.7 Coalition
    Menai 62.7/37.3 ALP
    Riverstone 51.2/48.8 Coalition
    Hawkesbury 81.3/18.7 Coalition

19. there are many unknowns here……..It is obvious there will be a coalition govr
    but how many will they win besides the trad marginal seats, Miranda, Menai, Camden. Wollonidill,
    the entrance, Drunmmoyne, Riverstone, Londonderry, Gosford, Kiama < heathcote & Bathurst
    is the big question, look at the conflicting guesses….. to lose Granville but retain Strathfield?
    eg of yr certainties in the main article I would be uncertain of maybe up to 15 (coalition)
    of the certanties for labor….. uncertain 2, most of the greens & independeants I would be uncertain of
    But the opinion polls tend to be correct even if the 2pp tends to be close to meaningless

20. in the previous post pls excuse my bad spelling

21. Hey Ben

    Very interesting tips and how.
    I think that every pundit will have predictions come to pass and predictions that are way off.
    Nobody can claim to be a Nostrodamus.
    Even expert gurus like Antony Green and Malcolm Mackerras (whom presumably all of us election pundits aspire to fill the shoes of) have been wrong in their predictions.
    Bring it on!!!

22. In addition to Labour being on the nose Coombs (sitting member) in Swansea is intensely disliked in the major suburbs of Belmont and Swansea so people in the electorate would be astonished if he won especially as he is not being preferenced by the Greens, who are directing preferences to the Independent Gillian Sneddon.
    As Sneddon also came out #1 on the ballot she is well placed to win the seat.

23. @DLH – I’m pretty sure that 2PP figure for Menai should be a Liberal one

24. Oh, it was meant to be Liberal, not ALP. A very confusing typo, sorry.

25. Sorry to go a little off topic, but there is also a couple of state elections in Germany this weekend, and in Baden-Württemberg the Greens are polling a whopping 25% :

    http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=ltw_bw

    If they go into coalition with the SPD they could be the senior party on those figures.

26. Millard, Boutros and a few others: give us some of what you’re smoking.

    ALP retains 16-20

    ALP retain: Lakemba, Auburn, Bankstown, Cabramatta, Canterbury, Liverpool, Shellharbour, Mount Druitt, Heffron, Blacktown, Toongabbie, Campbeltown, Fairfield, Keira, Maroubra, Wallsend, Macquarie Fields

    Greens gain: Marrickville, Balmain (duh)

    Ind gain from ALP: Charlestown, Maitland, Newcastle

    Ind retain: Sydney, Lake Macquarie, Northern Tablelands

    Everything else to coalition (though there’s a few close your eyes and toss a coin ones, Granville, Smithfield, Cessnock, Swansea, Monaro amongst them)

27. Here’s mine, with guestimated TPP figures..

    Labor (15)
    Cessnock (4%), Wallsend n/a , Charlestown (Ind if Libs 3rd), Swansea n/a, Mt Druitt (8%), Blacktown (2%), Fairfield (4-5%), Cabramatta (2-4%), Liverpool (4%), Macquarie Fields (1-2%), Bankstown (6%), Lakemba (10%), Canterbury (5%), Auburn (8%), Heffron (2-3% wouldn’t be suprised if Libs top the primary), Shellharbour (8%).

    Independent (6)
    Northern Tablelands (expect a 15 – 20% swing however – Torbay’s collaboration / speakership wont go completely unnoticed), Sydney (Libs will run a clear second and give Clover a fright), Lake Macquarie, Newcastle, Wollongong, Blue Mountains

    Green (2) Marrickville & Balmain.

    LNP (69)
    Gains:
    Maitland n/a (think Terenzini still a chance here)
    Wyong 2-3%
    The Enterance 6%
    Gosford 5%
    Londonderry 8-10%
    Mulgoa 5%
    Riverstone 10%
    Toongabbie (yes) 2-3%
    Parramatta 3%
    Granville 1-3%
    Camden 13-15%
    Wollondilly 10%
    Campbelltown 1%
    Smithfield 2%
    East Hills 5-7%
    Oatley 8-10%
    Kogarah 3%
    Rockdale 2%
    Maroubra <1%
    Coogee n/a
    Drummoyne 8-10%
    Strathfield 2-3%
    Menai 15%
    Miranda 16-18%
    Heathcote 9%
    Keira 1-2% (Libs came within 300 votes here in 1988)
    Kiama 5% (watch Ind here?)
    Monaro 1-2%
    Bathurst 6%
    Dubbo
    Tamworth
    Port Macquarie

28. oops..thats 16 for the ALP

29. With the recent debate on The Carbon Tax & after yesterday’s rally in Canberra, the Federal ALP has not done NSW ALP any favours with there comments on calling participants “Extremists”. I can guarantee that not all people who attended yesterday were Coalition voters & myself who votes Labor (and will continue to) am against the Carbon Tax for the principal of lying prior to the election. I believe the “LYING” by the PM is the major reason why majority of Australian’s are against this tax.

    I think that after yesterday’s rally any voters in NSW that were or still are undecided will base there decision on The Carbon Tax debate (Even though this is not a state issue), this whole topic is the major focal point & yesterday was the event that will ultimately make up people’s decision as to who they vote for. In my opinion I feel that some would be upset with the signs & plackards that were displayed thus they would likely decide to vote Labor (hopefully not Greens) & the ones who sat back & said “Julia did lie” & yesterday showed that everyday Australian’s will not stand for this & in turn will show there dissaproval of what the Federal Govt. (including The Greens) are doing & will vote for the Coalition.

    I think both the ALP & The Greens are in for a big shock come Saturday, honestly, no one knows exactly what damage this whole Carbon tax debate has caused both Labor & The Greens. You watch some safe ALP seats (25% plus margin) come into the picture Saturday Night where preferences will decide the winner.

30. you would be surprised the amount of people who are talking about this Carbon Tax, I am talking people who don’t give a brass hoot about politics. You & I know that the Carbon Tax is a Federal Issue, but majority of everyday NSW residents (and everyday Australians) see it as Labor/Greens wanting the tax & Liberal/Nationals not wanting the tax. People do not differ Federal & State politics, they only really see Liberal & Labor, not matter if it’s a state election or a federal election

    Prime example my wife, I showed her a picture of both KK & BOF, she said to me “Who are these 2 people?” I told her that KK is the Premier & BOF the opposition leader, she replied with who is Liberal & who is Labor?, I told her KK is Labor & BOF is Liberal, one simple reply I got “Julia lied & I am not voting for her this time” (voted Labor in last years Federal Election). This is a prime example where my wife (in this case) had no idea about Federal & State politics & the differences (even with me telling her that the Carbon Tax is Federal Issue) & made up her mind on one issue for who she will decide to vote for.

    Trust me, people do not differ between both & you watch Saturday where polling booths will have posters showing anti Carbon tax slogans & pictures of BOF & even TA (maybe even picture of Julia with her statement of “No Carbon Tax under the Govt. I lead), with vote Liberal or National to stop the Carbon Tax. People will see this & guarantee they will base there vote on this one major topic.

31. this election is like Ultimate Cage Fighting, even though your opponent is down on the canvas (Labor) you are on top of them (Coalition) still punching & kicking the crap out of them, there is no down for the count here, you will beat the crap out of them till there is nothing left to beat out of them, all you have are your loyal followers who are there to support & cheer you on, no matter what condition you are in! They will always be there to pick up the pieces & prepare you for your next battle

32. Newspoll 64-36 to Liberal.

33. In Swansea
    Gillian needs to win that seat, Coombs is no good for us here, it’s safe Labor meaning nothing gets done, bring in the Independent, we might start to see some changes….

34. I amend part of that previous comment, Swansea USED TO BE Safe Labor, bring on the Independent!!!!!!!!!

35. The ALP lost Newcastle in 1988.

36. On those Newspoll numbers, there’s got to be a solid chance that Heffron falls to the Greens. I’m taking Centrebet’s 29.00, a better than average longshot.

    Putting my reckless prediction to the test that matters!

37. If Heffron falls it will be to the Libs..

38. The ALP also lost Swansea in 1988

39. Meant to say the ALP also lost Swansea in 1988 to an Independent.

40. “If Heffron falls it will be to the Libs..”

    Agreed.

41. I don’t agree.

    On my swing calculator using today’s polling numbers you get ALP 34, Liberal 33, Green 29. However, there has been a huge campaign from the Greens in that seat, whereas the Liberal campaign has been non-existent. It was the very last seat in NSW for them to post a web profile. They are not campaigning. So that swing will lean slightly more to the Greens, which should put them ahead of Liberal, and not far off Labor.

42. peter jk23…. take your figures & add 12 possible Alp
    this is exactly what I mean……. the greens will not win 2 seats
    that middle ground where labor had a 10% margin vs the libs or better are the difficult ones to judge
    also the point of reference except for Ryde & Penrith should be the 2007 election

43. alo…… cage fighting is barbaric
    in a figurative sense so is a massive landslide to democracry
    in any case what comes around goes around……. in the max of 3 elections…… labor will be highly
    competitive… also watch for any by elections…… any where for any nsw seats

44. Mick Quinlivan

    Yeah I agree, when the Rat desert the Sunk ship after the election and causes by-elections, the ALP could easily be reduced to a Lawn bowl team

45. I am now tipping Keira to be won by the Liberals given this weeks internal polling. Hard to see Dorahy getting tossed here now. It is absolutely amazing!

46. DLH – Garrard is likely to poll around 10-15%.

47. nope….l I mean say the Lismore byelection etc

48. Mick Quinlivan – I don’t think a co-alition NSW government could lose in the way the ALP has and I am not being arrogant with that view. I say that because NSW is primarily a Labor voting state and the Liberals would never ever win 16 years of government. The reason the ALP will be hammered tomorrow is simply because of 16 years of government. The best the Libs could hope for is 3 terms, but I’d suggest 2 is more likely. A Liberal government is likely to lose after two terms, but it’s unlikely it would ever be a total route after 2 terms. After 3 with a Liberal Government, perhaps.

    In the fullness of time, the NSW ALP would be hoping that it lost in 2007, much like the Vic ALP did last year.

    The other thing affecting the ALP this time that the Libs don’t have to deal with is the ALP split under OPV with the Greens. This will probably cost them up to a dozen seats. The Libs had this to a much smaller extent in the 90’s with One Nation, however, most have returned to the fold now.

49. Basically what the polls are now saying: 66/34, 66/34, 64/36, and polling in Sydney specifically, is that the by-elections in lower- to upper-middle Penrith and Ryde can be transcended into wider Sydney. So think about Penrith and Ryde and carry that through Sydney generally tomorrow, and there is the likely outcome. Which means, the ALP probably won’t retain many in Sydney except for the Islamic centred communities and perhaps the very lowest of the socio-economic anglo areas in the western suburbs where the swings are probably too great.

    The regional areas are more difficult to predict given OPV and generally 3 horse races in the Hunter and Illawarra.

50. “However, there has been a huge campaign from the Greens in that seat.”

    With respect, I live in Heffron and have received a few of the same pamphlet from the Green but nothing else. The Green candidate has quite a few signs around (by the way, what’s with the ‘End the Lies’ and ‘Two Parties too Long’ signs? They just seem petulant) but not many more signs than the Libs or Keneally. I would consider Heffron a larger campaign for the Greens, but still pretty small fry by major party status. And, again with respect, the candidate may be nice enough but she is hardly well known. A stronger, more well-known candidate, like a local Mayor or Councillor (which I appreciate the Greens don’t have much of in Heffron) would have made it a closer race. Nonetheless, $29 is solid odds, but Keneally is pretty popular around here (especially in Botany Bay). At the start of the campaign I predicted a fairly safe Labor hold and nothing in the local campaigns has changed my mind.

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