NSW 2011: reckless predictions

By
Ben Raue
-
139

With two days to go, it’s time to make some predictions.

Lots of predictions have been made, some on individual seat threads and others on general NSW threads, but I thought it was time to bring them all together and make a stab myself.

I expect to get plenty of seats wrong, and in some cases there are seats which were a flip of a coin, but I have made a prediction for all 93 races.

As a disclaimer, I should make it clear that I am not putting any weight behind these predictions. It is no guarantee of a result and is likely to be wrong in details. My information varies between seats, and in some cases my limited information has forced me to make an estimate that is not strongly informed. In many other seats, however, I have a much stronger understanding of the local campaign.

The overall prediction is for a result of 50 Liberal, 19 Nationals, 15 Labor, 2 Greens and 7 independents.

I am predicting that the Coalition will hold on to their current 37 seats, although some not so comfortably as they wish. I will get into some of those below.

As far as Labor seats are concerned, the following table shows which party I predict will hold each of the 50 seats currently held by Labor.

Coalition Labor Independent Greens
Bathurst Auburn Blue Mountains Balmain
Camden Bankstown Charlestown Marrickville
Campbelltown Blacktown Newcastle
Cessnock Cabramatta Wollongong
Coogee Canterbury
Drummoyne Fairfield
East Hills Heffron
Gosford Lakemba
Granville Liverpool
Heathcote Macquarie Fields
Keira Mount Druitt
Kiama Shellharbour
Kogarah Strathfield
Londonderry Toongabbie
Maitland Wallsend
Maroubra
Menai
Miranda
Monaro
Mulgoa
Oatley
Parramatta
Riverstone
Rockdale
Smithfield
Swansea
The Entrance
Wollondilly
Wyong

In addition to these changes, I am predicting the Nationals will regain the independent seats of Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, in addition to winning Cessnock, Monaro and Bathurst off the ALP.

Largely the pattern of Coalition gains follows the pendulum, with a swing of approximately 15%. A number of seats, however, have been predicted to buck the trend. I’m predicting Macquarie Fields (11.1%), Toongabbie (14.5%) and Strathfield (15.1%) will all buck the trend due to local factors.

On the other hand, I think the ALP will be hit particularly hard in Smithfield (15.5%), Maroubra (16.1%), Kogarah (17.7%), Campbelltown (18.5%) and Keira (22.0%).

In terms of geography, there are a number of interesting trends. The ALP will be decimated along the Georges River, with Wollondilly, Campbelltown, Menai, Miranda, East Hills, Oatley, Kogarah and Rockdale all falling. Only Macquarie Fields is predicted to survive, although Campbelltown is knife-edge.

In Central Sydney, Labor will lose Drummoyne, Cooogee and Maroubra to the Liberals and Balmain and Marrickville to the Greens, but I predict them holding on narrowly in Strathfield and Heffron.

In the north-west of Sydney I see Labor being mostly wiped out in Parramatta, Granville, Smithfield, Londonderry and Riverstone, but prominent figures John Robertson and Nathan Rees should hold on in Blacktown and Toongabbie.

In the Illawarra, I expect easy Liberal wins in Kiama and Heathcote, and a close win in Keira due to local factors and the candidate. Noreen Hay is likely to lose to independent Gordon Bradbery in Wollongong, with only Shellharbour remaining Labor.

In the Hunter and Central Coast, I expect Labor to lose eight of their nine seats, losing Gosford, The Entrance, Wyong, Swansea and Maitland to the Liberals, losing Newcastle and Charlestown to independents, and losing Cessnock to the Nationals. Wallsend is likely to be the only surviving Labor seat.

Outside this region, the Nationals will gain five seats: Monaro, Bathurst, Dubbo, Tamworth and Port Macquarie.

It was hard to predict which seats independents will gain, with Newcastle the only gain I am confident of. I feel strongly that Bradbery will win in Wollongong. I tend to think Mays will win a close race over the Liberal in Blue Mountains, with Mays taking most of the Greens vote. The Greens could come fourth in what has been one of their strongest seats.

In the Hunter, there are strong independents running in Cessnock, Maitland, Wallsend and Swansea, but I only credited a win in Charlestown. This could well be wrong. In addition, the Nationals are under threat in the Upper Hunter from independent Tim Duddy, but should hold on.

In addition to winning Balmain and Marrickville, the Greens will come second in a series of other seats. I expect the Greens to come second in Heffron, and could come quite close to winning. In Coogee, I expect that sitting Labor MP Paul Pearce will fall to third, but the Liberal Party will be too far ahead for the Greens to win on Labor preferences.

Greens will also overtake Labor in the Coalition seats of Manly, Wakehurst, Davidson, Pittwater, Willoughby, Lane Cove, Ku-ring-gai, Ballina and Lismore, in addition to the seats of North Shore and Vaucluse where they came second in 2007.

So what are your predictions? Please post them below. But first, here are some maps of my prediction.

Predicted result of the NSW state election.
Predicted result of the NSW state election in the Greater Sydney area.
Predicted result of the NSW state election in the Hunter and the Central Coast.
Predicted result of the NSW state election in the Illawarra.
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139 COMMENTS

  1. Well done Ben. Good to see your predictions. I have gone with 21 for ALP finally. My differences with you are that:
    – I predict the Libs to win Strathfield and Blue Mountains
    – I predict the ALP to win Monaro, Campbelltown, Keira, Maroubra, Wollongong, Cessnock, and Smithfield (which you have as co-alition).
    – I haven’t classified Independent gains specifically, but I would predict most of the Hunter and Wollongong to be in danger which are ALP held.

    15 is bold and I admire it. I think at the end of the day though, it will be slightly better for the ALP although internal polling is in line with the Essential Poll yesterday, which corresponds with you.

    The absolute maximum the ALP could hope for is 28 in my opinion.

  2. Ben

    Good on you.

    I am inclined to differ with you slightly on the regional outcomes based partly on the Essential poll showing quite a strong vote in regional NSW – but based on no local knowledge.

    – ALP to just hang on to Monaro and Keira
    – Independent to hang on to Port Macquarie
    – Independents to gain Swansea and Maitland

    Overall balance: Coalition 65, ALP 17, Independents 9, Green 2

  3. Geez, that is a dire map for Labor isn’t it?

    I largely agree but think Labor will do a few seats better than you do.

    I agree that Labor will win all of the seats that you mention, plus Granville, Keira, Maroubra, Smithfield and Swansea. I won’t tip them, but I won’t be surprised if Labor wins Monaro, Cessnock of Bathurst, in that order.

    Greens should win Marrickville and Balmain. I’d put them at 50/50 to outpoll the Lib in Heffron, but I don’t think either will get close to Keneally. Indi’s to win Lake Macq, Northern Tablelands, Sydney, Wollongong, Charlestown and Newcastle.

    I’ll predict that the Libs will win Blue Mountains quite easily, plus the Nats should pick up the Indi seats of Dubbo, Port Macquarie and, sadly, Tamworth. Total numbers: Libs – 46, Nats – 19, ALP – 20, Greens – 2, Indis – 6.

  4. Labor should be able to hold on more in Hunter and Illawarra, they don’t be quite as on the nose out of Sydney. I expect Bathurst, Cessnock, Keira, Kiama, Monaro, and, maybe, Charlestown. There, I think Johnston might split the vote and Labor might be able to hold on with Greens preferences.

    I think Besseling should be able to hold on in Port Macquarie – barely.

    As for Sydney… well… the swings are so large that it’s so variable. It really comes down to how together the campaigns have been. I can only perhaps award Kogarah to Labor, if only because there doesn’t suffer the same infrastructure issues that plague the west.

    I’m going to award Heffron or Coogee to the Greens on Liberal preferences. I need one dream win.

    22 Labor, 3 Greens, and 7 independents. 61 Coalition.

  5. I’ll try and be optimistic, from a Labor point of view, and award them 4 extra seats: Keira, Granville, Campbelltown & Cessnock.
    The Liberals winning Balmain wouldn’t surprise me either.
    Otherwise, I’d broadly agree with most of the predictions above.

  6. Oh, I must be depressed today. I think the Libs will win Balmain and Blue Mountains but Daley will hold Maroubra for the ALP…or maybe not. Libs will outpoll Greens in Heffron (all those people down in Botany wont swing to the Greens)…and Coogee will go to the Libs on primaries (50%+)

    Yep, depressed today.

  7. And I’m not prepared to write off Michael Daley in Maroubra yet either.
    At best, 22 or 23 seats for Labor.

  8. Well most are around the same mark, Lib/Grn/ALP supporters alike. Anyway, only 2 days to go. Deconst could be correct on his regional predictions, but I find Kiama a very very tough one for Labor. I don’t think they can hold at their expected 35% primary vote. The Hunter is a bit of a lottery given 3 cornered contests (Lib/ALP/Ind) with, generally, ex-ALP or former ALP supporter Independents running. Labor could hold a host of them, the Libs could win them, or Indies could poke their noses up. Very tough call up there. I think it is too hard for the ALP in Maitland certainly and probably Charlestown, but the others (Swansea, Newc, Cessnock) could be retained by the ALP in their best case but strong Independent showing are expected in all of these (and generally with Lib preferences).

  10. In my opinion Balmain will be the most interesting seat to watch. It is effectively a three way race between the Greens, Labor and Liberals. On top of this throw in the John Hatton endorsed former local mayor (Maire Sheehan) as well and it becomes even more exciting!

    My first preference predictions for Balmain:

    1 Liberals (Falk)
    2 Greens (Parker)
    3 Labor (Firth)
    4 Independent (Sheehan)

    Everyone should keep their eye on this one, its going to be down to the wire!

  11. Don’t take the Blue Mountains as a sure bet for any party to take on saturday … all of them are running scared in this seat at the clear campaign of Independent Janet Mays, who has defined the local campaign since day one.

  12. Thinking about the uncertainty around the outcome in the Blue Mountains – think about Dension in the last Federal election – it will critically depend not only upon the relative votes across the four candidates but the order in which they finish.

    Does anyone have any clues about which party Mays would pull votes from?

  13. Doug – Mays will pull votes from across the spectrum, although she’ll pull more Labor and Green votes than Liberal. It’s going to be a close race, and it’s as close as Balmain except switch the Greens’ chances with Mays’.

    The other two seats to keep keen eyes on will be Heffron and Coogee. Toongabbie and Monaro will be nailbiters too.

    Fiona Byrne is home and hosed in Marrickville. The result shouldn’t even be close.

    In fact, this is one of the most interesting shakeups of the political landscape in years. It’s just a shame that it heralds a new age of Tory neoliberalism with CDP conservatism.

  14. I’d be surprised if Coogee is won by anything less than 10%, likewise Kiama. Matt Brown did very well last time to actually increase his vote, but Kiama isn’t just an Illawarra seat, it includes Bombaderry (North Nowra) and parts of the South Coast. The Illawarra Mercury and South Coast Register (Nowra paper) have been merciless on Brown. I’d expect the Libs to win that by at least 10% too.

    I’m more with Stewart re: Heffron, it should be a pretty safe Labor hold.

  15. Coogee reminds me of Balmain in a lot of ways – similar demography (I think), affluence and a high Greens vote.

  16. Question: if the Nationals won more lower house seats than the ALP, could Labor still call themselves the official opposition?

  19. Thanks deconst for the explanation!
    I’m just picturing the sight of the Lower House chamber after March 26: Over 60 coalition members, and on the other side, a rump of Labor MPs + 2 Greens + 5 or 6 independents.

  20. Overall Seat Count

    Coalition 64
    Labor 22
    Independent 6
    Green 1

    Notes:
    1. Out of Ben’s Labor list, Strathfield to go Liberal.
    2. Out of Ben’s Coalition gains, I have Campbelltown, Keira, Maroubra, Monaro, Rockdale and Smithfield to remain with the ALP and Swansea to go to the Independent
    3. The Independent gains, I have Wollongong to the ALP and Blue Mountains to the Coalition
    4. The Green gains, I have Balmain to the Coalition, while Marrickville remains with the Greens
    5. Seats that I think could go either way on the night, and make my numbers change include: Smithfield, East Hills, Campbelltown, Granville (If Garrard polls above 15% as I expect, Borger is gone), Fairfield (don’t laugh; Zangari is not a local and that will count against him), Blacktown, Riverstone (I’m expecting Conolly to win, but believe it will be extremely tight), Keira, Rockdale, Balmain, Macquarie Fields, Mulgoa (It’s the only real sentimental choice I’ve got in this list, because I believe that Prue Guillaume deserves a lot better than to lose) and Cabramatta (Wakeley, Bonnyrigg and St Johns Park will decide the winner, and if they hold to type, Lalich wins).

  21. Doug – the difference between Denison and Blue Mountains is OPV and exhaustion rates. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Libs got close to 50% of the primary vote here.

  22. By that question Evan, you are suggesting that the Liberal Party will enough seats that they could govern the house in their own right. The answer to that while they could do that, they will definitly stay in coalition with the National Party, especially for the purpose of the Upper House. Hence, the ALP will be invited to form opposition.

  23. DLH – Almost exactly with me except I can’t see Rockdale staying with Labor on such a small margin (in terms of this election).

  24. Hawkeye – yeah, but would be extremely funny if the Nats were sitting on the opposition benches as the next major ‘seats won’ party. Talk about taking the ….

  25. DB – Point taken on OPV.

    What I was really fishing for was some sense of what the break up between the four candidates would be. By implication you are suggesting that the Independent is not going to get a significant vote – as nearly 50% for the Liberals would mean a swing of 20% or to put it another way – it is equivalent to half the ALP vote in 2007 going straight to the Liberals.Noting that the ALP already went backward by 4.8% in 2007

    Other people are placing this in the too hard basket – obviously a seat to watch closely on saturday night. .

  26. Ok here goes – I am in general agreement with most people’s analysis generally, hoiwever until Monday this week I thought the ALP would win 22-24, now I am convinced they can’t do better than about 17, and could be reduced to 13-14 if it all goes badly for them on the night. I also think there is an increasing prospect of 11 Coalition LC spots.

    I think the the ALP definitely hold:
    Auburn,Bankstown,Canterbury,Heffron,Lakemba,Liverpool,Mt Druitt,Shellharbour,Wallsend. (9)

    I think they should hold Fairfield (but this is tightening as we speak), Swansea, Blacktown & Mac Fields.(13)
    Everything else is close and trending against them, including Toongabbie, Maroubra, Campbelltown and Granville. Whan is still a real show in Monaro.

  27. Hmmm, although we’ve discussed this before, if the Nats get more seats than the ALP then it will have shades of Canada in ’93 (when the BQ had the second highest number of seats).

  29. We will have great bi-partisan politics

    And leader of the Opposition Stoner will speak… Barry: I think that is a great idea, I cannot remember legislation that was so well planned out, can I cross the benches and kiss your feat ….

  30. A lot of what I predicted to stay with Labor, is more the ‘I’ll believe it, if it happens” variety in terms of going to the Liberals. At the absolute worst, Labor could end up with around nine seats, if the voters are really unsympathetic.

    I even had a hard time putting East Hills in my Coalition category, but there’s enough evidence, compared to say, Smithfield or Cabramatta to have it as a Coalition gain. Granville, I firmly believe to be gone, but only if Garrard polls above 15%, which is why it’s in my could go either way basket.

  31. With the recent debate on The Carbon Tax & after yesterday’s rally in Canberra, the Federal ALP has not done NSW ALP any favours with there comments on calling participants “Extremists”. I can guarantee that not all people who attended yesterday were Coalition voters & myself who votes Labor (and will continue to) am against the Carbon Tax for the principal of lying prior to the election. I believe the “LYING” by the PM is the major reason why majority of Australian’s are against this tax.

    I think that after yesterday’s rally any voters in NSW that were or still are undecided will base there decision on The Carbon Tax debate (Even though this is not a state issue), this whole topic is the major focal point & yesterday was the event that will ultimately make up people’s decision as to who they vote for. In my opinion I feel that some would be upset with the signs & plackards that were displayed thus they would likely decide to vote Labor (hopefully not Greens) & the ones who sat back & said “Julia did lie” & yesterday showed that everyday Australian’s will not stand for this & in turn will show there dissaproval of what the Federal Govt. (including The Greens) are doing & will vote for the Coalition.

    I think both the ALP & The Greens are in for a big shock come Saturday, honestly, no one knows exactly what damage this whole Carbon tax debate has caused both Labor & The Greens. You watch some safe ALP seats (25% plus margin) come into the picture Saturday Night where preferences will decide the winner.

  32. Coalition: 64
    ALP: 20
    IND: 7
    GRN 2

    Labor will win Lakemba, Cabramatta, Auburn, Canterbury, Liverpool, Mount Druitt, Bankstown, Heffron, Blacktown, Kiera, Shellharbour, Fairfield, Campbelltown, Maroubra, Wallsend, Toongabbie, Macquarie Fields, Granville, Swansea, Monaro.

    Independents will win the following (total of 7): Sydney, Northern Tablelands, Lake Macquarie, Newcastle, Wollongong, Charlestown, Maitland. They will lose all their other seats to the Nationals.

    The Greens will win Balmain and Marrickville.

    The coalition will win everything else.

  34. Seems pretty clear from the polling over the last year that most voters have made up their mind that they want to get rid of the NSW ALP government. The carbon tax is not and never has been a state issue and the polling figures for NSW have stayed pretty much within the same range over the period in which it has been debated. It may shift a few votes either way but I think the net impact of yesterday’s rally will be about nil – to the extent that it does anything it would certainly tend to lock in the higher Green vote for the under thirty fives that the polls have been telling us over the past few years is an ongoing feature of that party’s support base.

  35. Doug, you would be surprised the amount of people who are talking about this Carbon Tax, I am talking people who don’t give a brass hoot about politics. You & I know that the Carbon Tax is a Federal Issue, but majority of everyday NSW residents (and everyday Australians) see it as Labor/Greens wanting the tax & Liberal/Nationals not wanting the tax. People do not differ Federal & State politics, they only really see Liberal & Labor, not matter if it’s a state election or a federal election

    Prime example my wife, I showed her a picture of both KK & BOF, she said to me “Who are these 2 people?” I told her that KK is the Premier & BOF the opposition leader, she replied with who is Liberal & who is Labor?, I told her KK is Labor & BOF is Liberal, one simple reply I got “Julia lied & I am not voting for her this time” (voted Labor in last years Federal Election). This is a prime example where my wife (in this case) had no idea about Federal & State politics & the differences (even with me telling her that the Carbon Tax is Federal Issue) & made up her mind on one issue for who she will decide to vote for.

    Trust me, people do not differ between both & you watch Saturday where polling booths will have posters showing anti Carbon tax slogans & pictures of BOF & even TA (maybe even picture of Julia with her statement of “No Carbon Tax under the Govt. I lead), with vote Liberal or National to stop the Carbon Tax. People will see this & guarantee they will base there vote on this one major topic.

  36. Coalition: 63
    ALP: 18
    IND: 10
    GRN 2

    Labor will win:
    Lakemba, Cabramatta, Auburn, Canterbury, Liverpool, Mount Druitt, Bankstown, Heffron, Blacktown, Kiera, Shellharbour, Fairfield, Campbelltown, Strathfield, Wallsend, Toongabbie, Macquarie Fields, Monaro.

    Independents will win the following (total of 10): Sydney, Northern Tablelands, Lake Macquarie, Newcastle, Wollongong, Charlestown, Maitland, Swansea, Port Macquarie (?),
    Blue Mountains (this requires a strong enough showing by the Independent to get ahead of either the ALP or the Liberals – reports of the Green vote collapsing and going to the Independent)

    Independents will lose Dubbo and Tamworth to the Nationals.

    The Greens will win Balmain and Marrickville. (If there is going to be a shocker on the night it might just be Heffron going to the Greens – unlikely and I am not going to tip it but it will be worth keeping an eye out on the night to see what happens)

    .

  38. The ALP has worn out its welcome and was going to get booted out big time in NSW – this was clear 12 months ago.The polls have made this steadfastly clear.

    On the broader issue, regardless of anecdotes, there is plenty of evidence over the past few decades that there are a significant groupd of people who are clear enough about the distinction between state and federal politics and vote accordingly. The difference between the results in NSW for the state election this year and the vote in the next Federal election whenever it is held will I predict provide convincing evidence for this assertion.

  39. Doug – agree, but there is some degree of correlation between federal and state politics and frankly, the federal government is not very popular (particularly on primary vote) according to most polls. The OPV will have big ramifications in this election I suspect.

    I’d suggest the negatives of the federal government will also hurt the state government here.

  40. Bessling will lose Port Macquarie solely on RO backing Labor to form Govt, he may be a great member but people associate him with Oakeshot who in there eyes betrayed the national voters who voted independent last federal election cause in there eyes Rob even though he is an independent he is a conservative independent & thinks along the same line as the coalition.

    Mark my words like DB said Federal Labor policies are going to hit state Labor hard on Saturday, people don’t care state or federal they only see it as Liberal (& National) No Carbon Tax vs Labor (& in a sense the Greens) Carbon Tax.

  41. DB – hard to see how the Federal Government could hurt the state government anymore than they have hurt themselves.

    On the Blue Mountains the wisdom at the Poll bludger is that the ALP will come in behind the Independent and the Liberal

  42. I guess we’ll get a Newspoll on Saturday… Have there been other published seat by seat polls? All I can think of is Marrickville and the ones by the Illawarra Mercury?

  43. Doug, this election is like Ultimate Cage Fighting, even though your opponent is down on the canvas (Labor) you are on top of them (Coalition) still punching & kicking the crap out of them, there is no down for the count here, you will beat the crap out of them till there is nothing left to beat out of them, all you have are your loyal followers who are there to support & cheer you on, no matter what condition you are in! They will always be there to pick up the pieces & prepare you for your next battle

  44. Having spent a shift at pre-poll in Maitland I believe that Independent, Kelly Tranter, could give this a shake, but it is definitely a labor loss.

  45. I take the view that most people do distinguish between levels of government and what they do. But they don’t distinguish between the political party itself. If they think you’re doing a crap job on local or state government, that feeds up, and vice versa.

    I believe that if voters don’t trust you at one level of government they will find it more difficult to trust you at another. Labor hasn’t really been trusted very much by voters in NSW since about 2008.

  46. 100% correct Lachlan!

    As preferrentail voting is not a must in a state election, Labor’s primary vote (hate to say it) will be embarrasing!

  47. Labor will lose Granville but keep Parramatta… not the other way around as some predict. East Hills, Toongabbie and Strathfield definitely gone…

  48. Historically many voters have been cognisant of the boundaries between State & Federal but it still hasn’t stopped them from whacking one party or the other (mostly Federal) for the sins of their State colleagues. Bob Carr cost Fed ALP a number of seats around Sydney in 1996 due to broken tollway pledges & the also copped a whacking in Victoria at 1990 poll due to State derelictions. With the growing trend towards American “low information” voters; this may unfortunately become the rule.

    Frankly, there are still so many 3-4 cornered contests and one’s where either major party may have “rogered” themselves with poor candidate selection that we are left with a lot of very fluid contests. The ranges for final seat numbers are generally plausible at either end.

  49. Keneally and Hawke campaigning in Parramatta today, so Labor obviously hasn’t yet given up on the seat.

  50. Boutros: Centrebet actually show Ree’s odds improving in Toongabbie – I’ll tentatively call that one a Labor hold.

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