It’s been a few days now since I posted on the front page about NSW politics, so I thought it was time to open a new thread for any general discussion of NSW politics.
Nominations are open this week, with candidate names gradually being posted on the electoral commission website.
In a piece of news this morning, former One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has nominated for the NSW Legislative Council. While most of her political experience has been in Queensland, she nominated for the NSW upper house in 2003, polling strongly but not winning a seat.
She doesn’t seem to have much of a chance, but could take votes away from the Shooters and Fishers, the Christian Democratic Party and Family First. I’m sure there’ll be accusations that she is running simply to gain public funding. While that is possible in a federal election, it can’t happen in NSW. Funding is only available to pay for receipted electoral expenditure, and is only available if a candidate polls over 4%. Hanson won’t get over 4%.
In the last week we have seen a Galaxy poll which gave the Coalition 50% of the primary vote to 23% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. We have also seen a local poll in the Illawarra Mercury, predicting that the ALP would lose the seats of Heathcote, Keira and Kiama to the Liberal Party, and come close to losing Wollongong to independent candidate Gordon Bradbery.
Finally, I wanted to clear up some arguments in the comment threads about what is appropriate on this blog. I don’t have a clear comments policy because I haven’t needed one in the past. As far as I am concerned, people can talk about any aspect of NSW politics that they like. It doesn’t need to be dry analysis of the candidates and the numbers. It’s unrealistic to expect my commenters to act in that way, and it misses a key element of election campaigns. Elections are about politics, and political arguments are part of the campaign.
I will ask, however, that people try to stay relevant to the thread they are using. If you want to talk about general NSW politics, please use this thread (and other ones I will post in coming days). Comments on seat pages should be restricted to the campaign in that seat (or a handful of regional seats). I will start deleting comments that stray off-topic.
Got to love the way Archie Bunker I mean Pauline Hanson keeps running for office…
Those competing for a share of the right wing nutters vote is getting larger:
Shooters & Fishers
Outdoor Recreation
Pauline Hanson
Christian Democrats
Family First
The merge of Shooters & Fishers since 2007 reduces the split slightly but it’s still looking unproductive.
Given how frustrated people seem to be with both Labor and Liberal, and the attention that irregular arrivals have received in the last 12 months, Pauline probably has a better chance this election than 2007. That Fred Nile’s not the lead candidate probably isn’t going to help to stop the vote leaking from the CDP either.
Who wants to go with me to a large highly conservative booth and wear a placard saying “Make your vote count: Just vote 1”
deconst – yes, some nutters there, but I have time for FF and CDP.
I have time for Gordon Moyes but not Fred Nile. However the party platform should be evaluated more than the candidate standing, and the NSW Family First platform is essentially a friendlier CDP platform.
So, the question is, why are the Greens candidates appearing as “ungrouped” on the ECNSW website?
Not any more, they have their own group now, I guess NSWEC first put them in as ungrouped candidates before processing the “Legislative Council Claim to be Included in a Group” forms.
DB – what are you counting in your 23?
Mount Druitt, Blacktown, Toongabbie, Heffron, Maroubra, Lakemba, Canterbury, Auburn, Bankstown, Fairfield, Campbeltown, Liverpool, Cabramatta, Wollongong, Shellharbour
And then what? Granville, Macquarie Fields, Cessnock, Swansea and Keira?
That makes 20, and I can’t call those last 5 with confidence right now.
I’m pretty concerned that a liberal government will grab free reign and not do a great job. The only reason they are blitzing it is because labor is so awful. Its a given we’ll get a liberal government and that must be better than labor but I would like to see as many reasonable non-lib/lab candidates as possible to gold the government to account and represent the people.The Greens are just too wacky and i really wish people would examine them properly before going voting for them. So as far as voting goes, that pretty much leaves the cdp, family first and perhaps john hatton or the democrats??? Hopefully they will preerence each other, but who is going the best people to not be obstructionist, but keep watch over the government for the people??? fred nile seems a bit wacky, the rest i don’t know, moyes maybe more moderate? opinions???????????
Pollster – here we go then (I have 22 now based on some info received today):
ALP – Lakemba, Cabramatta, Auburn, Canterbury, Liverpool, Shellharbour, Bankstown, Mt Druitt, Wollongong, Heffron, Blacktown, Keira, Fairfield, Campbelltown, Maroubra, Wallsend, Smithfield, Toongabbie, Cessnock, Macquarie Fields, Granville, and Monaro.
The biggest question marks above would be Monaro, Wallsend, Granville, Cessnock, Keira, Campbelltown (in that order). I have changed my view on Swansea today.
crazedmongoose – ah….just saw yours. Is that a guess or is that HQ?
I am told of an average 25% swing in Kogarah/Oatley/East Hills at the moment on phone polls.
Nah, just my personal pick/guess and contacts in individual campaigns.
Interesting you still got us holding Macquarie Fields with certainty. I’d lump that in with Monaro and Granville in the “close your eyes and throw a dart” level.
So you think we’re out in Swansea? (I know nobody on this campaign, nor do I really know about the seat)
DB/ Crazemongoose – & Strathfield and Parramatta?
Spies telling you that Labor will lose Swansea? ITSTL.
Macquarie Fields would be a chance of going with Fraser nominating and the M5 announcement as well.
What I rank my seats as…
CERTAIN LABOR
Lakemba
Auburn
Canterbury
Liverpool
Shellharbour
Bankstown
Mount Druitt
Heffron
Blacktown
Fairfield
PROBABLE LABOR
Cabramatta
Wallsend
Toongabbie
LEANS LABOR
Wollongong (Ind)
Keira
Smithfield
Macquarie Fields
Granville
Swansea (Ind)
TOSS-UP
Campbelltown
Maroubra
Cessnock
Rockdale
Charlestown (Ind/Lib)
Monaro
Newcastle (Ind)
LEANS LIBERAL
Kogarah
Strathfield
East Hills
Parramatta
Maitland (possibly Ind as well)
PROBABLE LIBERAL
Oatley
Bathurst
Kiama
Mulgoa
Riverstone
Wyong
Marrickville (Grn)
CERTAIN LIBERAL
Blue Mountains
Heathcote
Drummoyne
Coogee
Londonderry
The Entrance
Gosford
Camden
Balmain (Grn/Lib)
Wollondilly
Menai
Miranda
Also, the Nationals are a good chance of picking up Port Macquarie, Tamworth and Dubbo, and a few other National electorates are a chance of being at risk to Independents. However, the Coalition seats should be safe from Labor, however surprises can happen.
Pollster – good pick up. Strathfield becoming increasingly like a Labor hold (I actually had it as a Liberal gain but I’ll review that over the next fortnight). Parramatta should go to the Liberals. Mind you, I probably have a few there to the Libs which could be a bit wishy-washy too (based on gut feel only).
Swansea not looking good for the ALP at the moment due to a split ALP vote with Ind. But who knows what preferences will do. But let’s also remember here, most candidates haven’t even announced preference intentions yet on How to Vote tickets.
And morgeib, I think most of the Indies after this election will be from traditional ALP seats rather than traditional co-alition ones. You are pretty spot on I reckon with that list. I’d put Wallsend as ‘leans ALP’ , Wollongong, Smithfield, Maroubra as ‘probable ALP’, Swansea as a ‘toss-up’ ind/ALP/Lib, Rockdale as ‘leans Lib’, and the rest I’d pretty much agree with. So I’ve given the ALP a fair split there of the very close ones.
Based on polling there will be quite a number of under 3% marginals in this election I believe.
By very definition you would expect 50% of the toss ups to go one way so that gets you to 3/6 or 22 (23 maybe with Stratfield). Throw in a couple of extra seats (Charlestown and NewCastle) and 25 perhaps. And if the seats break the right way 27/28.
DB,
On what basis are you firming your view of Strathfield being a Labor hold? I know it’s becoming more of a Labor seat but going on Federal figures the Liberals can still do well there when they want to.
Also, are there any whisperings you’ve heard about Smithfield? Based on Antony’s federal numbers that would be a lot closer than its margin suggests. Unlikely but at a wipeout election like this, who knows?
MDM – Polling is close in this seat and Virginia is a very good local member. Any 50/50 polling I am giving to the incumbent in my predictions.
I think that Strathfield is going the other way, and that Judge’s prospects are no better than 30/70. Laregly the others I agree with – I think Keira is very much in play, as is Smithefield and Macqaurie Fields. Also, on the basis of polling that I am aware of, you are putting Toongabie far too high up the chain – the polling is very tight there.
Labor in all likelihood somewhere between 18-21 seats. The Nats will win all seats from the Independents except Nothern Tablelands, which puts the Independents at anywhere between 5-8 seats – all new ones from formerly ALP electorates.
Mod lib – hi. I’m getting 50/50 in Strathfield (so giving to ALP – well you have to go one way or the other), my mate John a couple of percent behind in Keira, Libs a couple behind in Mac Fields and in Smithfield I was unaware it was so close (i’ll get some info). Toongabbie I am getting a rolling 54/46 to Nathan Rees over the last few weeks (one however was 50/50).
I might be a little conservative to say 22 for the ALP but I’d prefer to be that way.
Agree on the Ind seats going comfortably to the Nats. Bad news particularly for Windsor/Oakeshott/Gillard. I’m also hearing that Windsor is considering his ‘immediate political future’…..you heard it first if so.
I think we are in furious agreement here DB; the next 2 weeks will determine if the ALP seat count is reduced to a rump of 18, or whether they can stagger up to about 24 (that’s about as far as I think they can get).
In my travels I have also picked up on some ’88 independent phenomenas – so particulalry keep a look out for Woollongong, Wallsend and Swansea.
The really encouraging sign is how many really excellent well credentialled candidates are about to enter this parliament e.g Vaucluse, Hornsby & Cronulla.
Arthur Chesterfield-Evans (ACE to friends) is heading the Democrats tickets. He’s a good man.
Undoubtedly, some talent will filter through in an election with such a high turnover rate. Not too sure abt Hornsby …. Kean’s only trackrecord is that of an ambitious Young Lib (an orgainisation that has unfortunately diminished in reputation in recent times).
Sadly, the outstanding are most likely to be outnumbered by those who’s ambitions & mouths far outstrip their talents …. thus providing a distinct hazard for the Lib party leadership in riding herd on these folk & their capacity to cause embarassment.
I suspect there will be a lot of “oncers” in this intake – going by the nature of this election & the realities that a large percentage of the wins are likely to be “anomalies” and WILL correct in 1-2 terms. Some WILL put their head down & become productive constituency MPs and this may be rewarded (though not always) with greater tenure.
On a wider point, personal votes do exist & can resist varying degrees of political tide but they can very rarely resist landslides/wipeouts.
“Sadly, the outstanding are most likely to be outnumbered by those who’s ambitions & mouths far outstrip their talents …. thus providing a distinct hazard for the Lib party leadership in riding herd on these folk & their capacity to cause embarassment.”
Agreed, a friend of mine who shall go unnamed has already expressed a headache at the prospect of “baby sitting all these new inexperienced members”.
From all indications I think labour will fall in around 24. That said, having had a look at candidate order following the ballot today, it seems that the LNP candiate is above the labour candidate in a number of the “marginal” seats (or more accurately the seats in play). But maybe this doesn’t matter in OPV?
Also the LNP getting position A on the ballot paper (ironically far left) compared with the Lab/Greens in the middle must help the left of centre paries slightly. And perhaps vitally if the last seats (and control of the upper house) comes down to the wire.
Mod lib – I think the Libs will pick up Swansea more than the ALP will with Independent influence there. You simply can’t tell with the preference flow but it seems Libs and Labor will go close on primaries and Ind could well too. It’s a toss up that one. I think Labor will retain Wallsend but it’s not safe. And I’m getting the feeling that the ALP will hold on to Wollongong despite a strong Ind challenge.
Pollster – Can’t agree. No. “A” is by far the best position you can get for the over 60’s. And for the rest it doesn’t really matter because they can work it out. And I’m not suggesting the over 60’s are necessarily losing it, but their sight sometimes isn’t the best (even with glasses). So “A” will do just fine from this conservative thankyou.
And I agree, the ballot has been a bit of a shocker for the ALP in the lower house too, but with OPV it won’t make much difference I wouldn’t have thought. Let’s now work on OPV at federal elections!
24 seats is somewhere around where I think (I have 22 but a number of Indies in ALP seats). Any talk of 30’s though now looks fanciful because then you would be getting into the early 11’s% without losing anything above except Balmain and Marrickville. More chance of teens than thirties I would have thought, but 20’s would be the best bet probability wise. Despite the protests (and passion) Verity is gone and Carmel’s walking around with blood dripping from her.
Haven’t heard anythign from the Hunter recently. Anyone got an update?
Based on where BOFFA is campaigning and the fact that Lab seems to be panicking somewhat I think I am back to the high teens rather than the low twenties. If it is true that LAb has given up in Kog/Oat/EH then they can’t win one (or two) of these to get to the mid 20s.
Pollster – I don’t think they have given up on Kogarah or East Hills. It’s just looks dire is all. Will probably have an update on the Hunter on Monday, but this week I have changed my opinion on Swansea and I now think that an Ind or Lib victory is now more likely.
Pollster – Cherie Burton in Kogarah is still running a big campaign. Bob Hawke was at her launch the other week. I don’t know about the others.
Thanks for answering my query about the campaign in Kog/EH and I look forward to insights on the Hunter next week.
Parramatta is going to be very very interesting in the next week.
Geoff Lee is not looking very good (physically). He looks distracted and worried.
The Sunday Telegraph published a story he has been referred to ICAC. Some of his workers have been photographed destroying ALP campaign posters last night. There are some rumours flying around too.
Watch this space
Anthony – I think the dirt is going to be thrown both ways in Parramatta. Polling is putting the Liberals comfortably ahead there.
The incredible thing about polling from the weekend is how incredibly close it is across most of the seats on 14-23% margins. Labor would have to retain much better than polling suggests to get 28 seats. If election day came out as polling is, the ALP could be reduced to as little as 17 seats. If you are a betting person, early 20’s is looking most likely I’d suggest. Any discussion of 30’s is almost impossible I would suggest.
Labor will also be hurt in the Hunter, where is looks as though their support is coming to an end due mainly to Independent influences.
Essential Poll on NSW http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/nsw-state-voting-intention-2/
ALP 24% LNP 54% Greens 12% Independent 11%
Interestingly ALP
Sydney – 21%
Other NSW -27%
Doug – seems to be a rogue to me. But if it is 69/31 in Sydney, then the ALP won’t win anything but the bare minimum: i.e. Lakemba, Liverpool, Bankstown, Mt Druitt, Auburn, Canterbury, Heffron and perhaps Fairfied. Everything else would go to the co-alition. Therefore I’d question it.
But the interesting thing is that (at least) is not showing a late surge in support for the Keneally government, which would suggest that the low to mid 20’s is probably on the mark.
Noted that it was complied over three weeks. 2PP of 41 % outside of Sydney suggests that this will be a highly variable election in terms of swings
If the essential poll is correct… 41% outside Sydney and 31% in Sydney means that Sydney will be a wipeout, and the ALP will hold on in a few Hunter and Wollongong seats…
Or alternatively it means small swings in Country seats between Nat / ALP as well as in the Sydney North Shore and once in a generation swings pretty much everywhere else.
What were the 2PP numbers for Sydney and Country NSW at the 2007 election? What sort of swings are we talking about here?
Doug – internal polling has been showing for a while that the swings in Sydney metro would be the greatest. The problem for the ALP is that despite suggested smaller swings in the Hunter/Illawarra/Northern NSW etc on a 2PP basis, in actual fact, 1. regional currently Independent held seats will be lost to the LNP and 2. ALP held seats in the Hunter/Illawarra could be lost to high profile local Indies without greatly affecting the overall 2PP (ALP/LNP) vote. In other words, ALP could be ahead in 2PP terms to LNP in the Hunter but the Indies challenging could still hold a bunch of seats such as Newcastle, Charlestown, Maitland, and Swansea.
I suppose what I am really saying here is that the 2PP means little. The more concerning thing for the ALP would be the 2PP differential in Sydney (as most seats will be ALP/LNP fought) and the overall primary vote differential for the LNP (54%) to the ALP (24%). That constitutes a massacre that no-one here has alluded to. I’d image if there are 2 Indies in the Hunter area and this poll is correct, the ALP couldn’t be looking at better than 15. I think that is way too pessimistic (or optimistic) personally. I’d want to see consistency in both primary polls of the ALP/LNP before making a call below 20.
Peted – as I said above Independents could well pick up Hunter seats without affecting greatly the 2PP vote (ALP/LNP) overall. All it would take is for a 30/30/30 or thereabouts split with Liberal preferences flowing to Independents (which would put them above Labor). Preferencing will be very important in the Hunter and Illawarra areas.
Surely the ALP will hang on to Cessnock and Bathurst on those figures???
acermark – probably yes to Cessnock, probably no to Bathurst.
I know this may sound really selfish, but I almost don’t care how the ALP goes in the Hunter and Illawarra… it is the massacre in Sydney I will be gearing up to watch…
We are down to the last few blocks in Berlin now!
I’d wait for Newspoll, Galaxy and ACNielson before being confident in Essential. I’d expect some other polls early next week. I’ll be getting some private polls from the weekend but I’ll be a little more careful after getting a rap over the knuckles (priviately) over a couple of comments this week.
The Essential poll was a rolling 3 weeker, which does indicate to me it could be getting worse for the ALP, but it is on small samples.
there are certainly unknowns….. usually the opinion polls are reasonably correct but greater than 60/40 to
the libs is so high. maybe take A. Greens research paper which gives 31 seats Alp since 1988 and knock of 2 to 4 extra…… eg Drummoyne & coogee and We get a more realistic estimate
BUT STILL A GUESS
The best way to describe this election is that the NSW ALP is a vampire which the people of NSW have decided to stake – they want to make absolutely the vampire is dead and cant come back. This isnt one election too many – its defoliation so it can never ever grow back.
I think some people in the ALP are thinking an electricity election in 2008 would have been a lot smarter way to go. Basically Gen X to the ALP will be like the babyboomers for the Libs lost forever.
@DB – sorry to hear that you have sore knuckles. I’m sure that I speak for all tally room users when I say I appreciate your frank and forthright views and hope that you continue to provide such comments to the extend possible.
I get the feeling (horrible or otherwise depending on your view) the lab is going to get absolutely smashed. I was expecting to have some sort of swing back to lab this week but only get the feeling (from newspoll etc – last nights leaders debate where it appears that as BOFFA wasn’t going to eat children two thirds of the “undecideds” would support him) that 50 plus percent of voters will vote coalition and half of the other 50% are considering to follow suit. Accordingly, subject to no major issues with BOFFA this week, I think we are looking closer to 15 seats than 22 for the labour party. That is I am calling the 50/50s to the libs/inds on the basis that the “undecideds” will vote non-labour when they face the ballot paper. The negative labor ads won’t work as punters have stopped lisening……. And yes I acknowledge I have changed my view since earlier posts but I am trying to be objective in my assessment and my opinion has changed.
Interesting odds from Sportsbet for the entire election:
Essentially 16 seats regarded as safe for the ALP and 12 as too close to call.
28 would be a great outcome in the short term for the ALP less than 20 would probably be better for the cause of perestroika in the ALP in the long run.
Too close to call (according to Sportsbet) are
Blacktown
Cessnock
Charlestown
East Hills
Keira
Kogarah
Monaro
Rockdale
Smithfield
Strathfield
Toongabbie
Wollongong
I found the following article in yesterday’s Telegraph.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/labor-sacrifices-seats-for-leader/story-fn6b3v4f-1226024628508
While the obvious propping up of Robertson shouldn’t raise an eyebrow, the accompanying list of how Labor sees its seats really pricked my eyes!
How can marginals like Newcastle and Monaro and Wyong be regarded as only “in danger”, while safer seats like East Hills and Parramatta are written off as gone?
Have a look and go figure. (I’d be interested in the Tally Room master’s thoughts!)
Report from Essential on NSW election, and I quote:
NSW Labor has continued to slip further behind the Coalition in the final Essential Research poll before Saturday’s State election.
On Essential’s three-week average, Labor has lost roughly one point a week on its primary vote through the campaign and has continued that form into the last week. It has now fallen to a primary vote of just 23%, with the Coalition on 55%. With the Greens on 11%, this means a Coalition two-party preferred lead of 66-34%, based on a sample of 971. The campaign by Kristina Keneally, while strong on the never-give-in stuff, appears to have further eroded Labor’s already disastrous position.
The only faintly positive outcome for Labor is that it continues to fare much better outside Sydney. It’s on 29% regionally, and “only” trails 42-58% on a 2PP basis, giving some faint hope to regional MPs like Monaro’s Steve Whan, who have been running campaigns devoid of all reference to Labor …
But the corollary of the stronger regional polling is Labor’s truly shocking performance in Sydney, where it is on just 20% primary vote.
Anyone care to revise their predictions?
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