Ireland goes to the polls this Friday in a general election that will likely see a massive shift in Irish politics.
The current Irish government has been in power since 1997, led by the conservative Fianna Fail party. They have been in coalition since 2007 with the Green Party. While the government was one of the most stable in Irish history for its first decade, things turned sour in the last term, with the Irish economy devastated by the global financial crisis.
Fianna Fail has plummeted in the polls, and are currently stuck in third place, occasionally in danger of falling into fourth place.
The main opposition parties in Ireland are the centre-right Fine Gael, the centre-left Labour and the left-wing Sinn Fein. Fine Gael is the other major party, and are the only other party to have ever led a government. Fine Gael was originally formed by those who had supported the Anglo-Irish treaty in the early 1920s that triggered the Irish Civil War, while Fianna Fael was formed by those who opposed the treaty and fought on the other side in the war.
The two major parties cannot be easily slotted as the major “centre-left” party and the major “centre-right” party, and both are more right-wing than left.
Unlike in other English-speaking countries, Labour has never emerged as a major party, usually polling much less than 20%. Sinn Fein operates as a single party in all of Ireland, and are led by Gerry Adams. Adams has traditionally held a seat in the British House of Commons (which he has refused to take up) as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly. He recently resigned from both bodies to contest the upcoming Irish general election.
Today’s Irish Times poll has Fine Gael polling 37% (up 4%), Labour polling 19% (down 5%), Fianna Fail 16% (+1), Sinn Fein 12% (-1) and the Greens 2% (-1).
Fine Gael has never previously won a majority in the Dail (the lower house of the Irish parliament). It is estimated that they could win such a majority with just over 40% of the primary vote. While Ireland’s system is largely proportional, the small size of districts mean that the larger parties still benefit from a disproportionate seat allocation, and can win a majority with less than a majority of votes.
Labour is also clearly on track for second place, and the campaign has largely focused on the contest between Fine Gael and Labour, resembling a more traditional left-right battle. For most of the last decade, it has appeared that the next non-FF government would be a coalition of Fine Gael and Labour, as have most of the previous governments in which one of those parties has been involved. However the complete collapse of Fianna Fail has shifted focus away.
It seems unlikely Labour would join a government with Fine Gael in circumstances where FG fell just short of a majority and Labour was for the first time a major party in the Dail. Current polling has the vote for independents increasing dramatically, and Fine Gael should be able to gain the support of enough independents to govern without another party.
Along with Labour and Sinn Fein, a third left-wing party is expected to gain ground. The United Left Alliance is a recently formed grouping led by the Socialist Party’s Joe Higgins, who was his party’s sole TD from 1997 to 2007 and has been a Member of the European Parliament since 2009. They are also polling well and are expected to gain seats.
