With the Irish economy on the brink and in need for a bailout from international organisations and the European Union, Ireland is also on the verge of an election which has been pending for the last few years.
The junior coalition partner Green Party has called for a general election to be held in late January 2011. The Taoiseach (Prime Minister) has agreed to call an election in early 2011, despite the five-year term not expiring until May 2012. He has insisted that the government’s budget is passed before he will call an election.
Fianna Fail have been in government since 1997, and had two terms of stable and prosperous government. In 2007, they went into coalition with the Green Party, but things went badly for the government as Ireland was hit badly by the financial crisis of 2008 and has been in dire straits ever since.
The current government is extremely unpopular and it is being assumed that Fianna Fail will lose, and there is a possibility that the Greens could lose all of their parliamentary representation. It is expected that the election will result in a coalition of the opposition Fine Gael and Labour parties, with the only question being how much a share of governmental power each party will gain. Rare polls have suggested that Labour, which has always been Ireland’s third-biggest party, has the potential to overtake Fianna Fail in terms of votes and seats.
The government’s position in the Dail (lower house of the Parliament) has deteriorated to the point that it is unclear if they can command the support of the Dail, with a number of uncommitted TDs holding the balance of power after a number of defections and by-elections. This raised the possibility of the government falling entirely and bringing on an early election. It appears this will not be necessary, but it is yet to be seen whether the government will be able to pass the budget which may be necessary to fulfill the requirements of the bailout deal and has been set as a requirement before an election is called.
With Fianna Fail facing annihilation, there has already been talk about replacing their leader Brian Cowen, with one cabinet minister expressing interest in taking on the role.
Ireland’s election should be a fascinating one. The Republic of Ireland’s lower house is elected by the single transferable vote, with 43 constituencies electing 3-5 TDs (members of Parliament) each. I hope to blog about it as Ireland descends into an election in an environment of economic disaster. For the time being, you can download the electoral maps for the Dail for both the 2007 election and for the upcoming election from the Tally Room maps page.
For now I will return to my preparation for this weekend’s Victorian state election. I’m planning to finish the final five seat profiles tomorrow in time for the election.
The Irish Greens deserve to get wiped off the face of the earth. They supported the austerity measures of the Fianna Fail government and are only pulling out now to try to retrieve something (anything) from their unholy alliance with the bigger party.
If there was a “worst Green party in the world” award, they would be easy winners.
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