Victorian election update

By
Ben Raue
-
15

News has broken this morning that the Liberal Party will be putting the Greens last in all Legislative Assembly races in Victoria. This is an issue only in the four inner-Melbourne seats where the Greens are in a contest with Labor to win, with the Liberal preferences helping decide the result.

While this has been reported as an action that will doom the chances of Greens winning seats in the Assembly, I still think the Greens have a strong shot in three Assembly seats, although it will be harder than it previously appeared.

In those four seats, the Liberals preferenced the Greens in 2002 and 2006, and the current margins are based on the Greens receiving those Liberal preferences.

Those current margins are 2.0% in Melbourne, 3.6% in Brunswick and Richmond and 8.5% in Northcote. It certainly harms the Greens’ chances in these seats without Liberal preferences, but I still think they have a strong shot at three seats.

William Bowe at the Poll Bludger recently produced projections based on the 2010 federal election results in those four seats, showing the Greens winning Melbourne and Richmond and coming close in Brunswick and Northcote if the Liberals preferenced the Greens (as they had done in the federal election).

Assuming that the Liberals didn’t preference the Greens in these seats, his projections has the Greens winning just under 50% in Melbourne and Richmond and just over 40% in Brunswick and Northcote. There are a number of reasons, however, why I think this underestimates the Greens’ chances in Melbourne, Richmond and particularly Brunswick:

  • The Greens generally are polling slightly better than they did in the federal election. Recent polling has had them on 16% in Neilsen and 14% in Newspoll (down from a record 19%). If the Greens manage to crack 15%, that’s a 50% increase in their vote, and puts them in a much stronger position in those inner-city seats. The Fremantle by-election saw the Greens outpoll Labor on primary votes, and if the Greens manage that in any of these seats, Liberal voters probably won’t preference Labor in high enough proportions to give them the seat. Bowe’s analysis showed the Greens ahead by 1% in Melbourne on primaries and behind by 2% in Richmond.
  • In the federal election, all of the energies of the Greens (in terms of winning a lower-house seat) were focused on Melbourne, with some energy dedicated to Martin Ferguson’s seat of Batman. Melbourne state and Richmond almost exactly correlate with Melbourne federal, while Northcote covers southern parts of Batman, and Brunswick covers southern parts of Wills. So while the Greens did much better in the federal election in Richmond than Brunswick, it’s worth remembering that the two seats were exactly matched in 2006, while Richmond gained much more attention at the 2010 federal election. Once you consider the impact of Carlo Carli’s retirement and Phil Cleary’s emergence in Brunswick, I see Brunswick as still being on a similar footing to Richmond.

Taking all that into account, I believe that the Greens still have a strong shot in Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick, but they will all be very close-run contests without Liberal preferences. I also think that the lack of Liberal preferences will make it very hard for the Greens to win in Northcote.

In the Legislative Council, preferences have been a mixed bag for the Greens. In Western Victoria, the Greens are receiving Labor preferences ahead of the DLP, which in 2006 would have elected a fourth Greens to the Legislative Council. You’d have to think that this makes Western Victoria a likely pick-up for the Greens and very difficult for the DLP to retain.

In Eastern Metropolitan, the other good chance for the Greens to pick up, the Liberal Party’s preferencing decision makes it much harder. The Greens will likely be competing with the second Labor candidate there, and with Liberal preferences flowing to the ALP, the Green would need a higher primary vote to win. I still think it will be hard for the Greens to win in the other regions where they do not have a sitting MLC. Having said that, if the Greens poll 15-16% statewide, they would be competitive in all regions and it becomes difficult to judge where that vote would go.

For those of you interested, I have now posted profiles for 59 Legislative Assembly districts on the blog, including all below a 6% margin. I have another 11 maps ready to go, and I’m rushing to get the remainder done in time for the election. Unfortunately the tight timeframe with the federal election barely two months ago, combined with my trip to the US, has made it hard for me to complete all 88 seat guides in time.

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15 COMMENTS

  1. You’d have to think that this makes Western Victoria a likely pick-up for the Greens and very difficult for the DLP to retain.

    Not necessarily. The Greens only get it if the left (ALP + Green) keep 3 seats. As the four right-wing groups (Coalition, DLP, FF, CA) have all swapped preferences, the ALP + Green vote needs to stay above 50%. They got about 51% in 2006 (including Socialist Alliance), so there’s not much breathing space.

  2. If we’re talking about 50% increases in Greens primary vote, Prahran clearly comes into the equation as well. An 8.5% swing from Labor to Greens there would put the Greens ahead of Labor. That’s a tough ask, and i wouldn’t be betting on it, but it’s within the range of what’s possible if you project the primary vote swings from recent polls across individual seats.

  3. And the other point I meant to add is that in Marrickville at the 2007 NSW election, where the Libs ran an open ticket, of the Lib voters who did direct preferences they split 50-50.

    Antony argues that the Libs may not necessarily hand out their HTV in those inner-city seats. That makes perfect sense, since they then get the media coverage they want on this story, but without having the practical effect on the ground. In such a scenario it would then make sense that a 50-50 split could be a reasonable assumption, and that certainly doesn’t knock the Greens out of the running in all seats.

  5. I find this whole preference saga and the conservative commentators, particularly since the Federal election, bizzare (or is it confusing?).

    Are Liberals actually thinking long-term here and not short term? If they are truly looking long-term then this latest move by the liberals is another way in which they are sizing the Greens up as the natural enemy replacing the ALP. Or is it simply short term tactics by trying to do to the Greens what they (and others) did to One Nation and blow us out of the political waters in one election?

    The conservative commentators have seriously ramped up their language and rhetoric. The dismissive tone in their language has disappeared and it has become terribly vicious. So vicious that it sounds so extraordinarily unbelievable, particularly when the Greens agenda and strategy Federally has been so reasonable (assertive yes but not controversial).

    Are they actually scared of us now?

  6. Much like the Liberals running dead in Melbourne and Grayndler at the last election, there won’t be many resources put in, but there will always be the die-hard supporters – the UniMelb Liberal Club, etc – who will refuse to hand out HTVs anywhere except in their home electorate. Also older people who may not want to travel out of their areas but still want to help out. I think we’ll see the same old HTV activity from the Liberals because it helps serve their supporter base.

    As for why the Liberals did this, it honestly doesn’t matter as accepting it as a positive outcome. It serves everyone to put an end to these preference games and genuinely make it about an order that reflects how close each party is to one’s policy platform. I wanted a 1 Greens 2 Labor HTV for the federal election, to try to stave off any preference confusion by Labor, but now I realise it’s better to put parties higher with positions genuinely similar to ours (eg Socialist Alliance) than the aggressively centrist ALP.

    The Greens’ primary vote will rise as a result of this, which is what really matters in the long term.

  7. Stephen Jolly (Socialist Party) in seat of Richmond is also expected to pickup a significant primary vote – probably at Labor’s expense. He’s been campaigning hard in public housing areas, and has prominent record as a Councillor at the local council. His preferences will be likely to overwhelmingly flow to the Greens candidate, elevating chances even more in this seat.

  8. That’s probably fair to say, yeah. In 2006 his preferences went like so: Grn 65.24, ALP 25.2, Lib 9.55. Not quite overwhelming, but a handy advantage to the Greens.

  10. Jolly has said he won’t be preferencing the Greens, instead putting Labor ahead of the Greens in his HTVs, because of the particular candidate and her conservative views

  13. Interesting comments on Sex Party how to vote cards. what are they up to? where on the political spectrum do they expect that people who support them are coming from? Anyone got any clues?

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