USA 2010: Florida Senate

Florida is a rapidly growing state that in recent decades has become one of the largest states in the United States. At each of the last six ten-year censuses, Florida has gained a number of new congressional seats, growing from six seats in 1950 to 25 seats in 2002.

Florida is also a key swing state in presidential elections. The state has gone with the winning party at nearly every election in recent decades, only going against the trend in 1960 and 1992. In 2000, the result hinged on a contested result in Florida, delaying the election’s winner being decided for over a month.

This year’s Senate race is unique, with the formerly Republican Governor of Florida neck-and-neck with the Republican candidate, with the Democrat trailing in third place.

Florida’s Senate seats were long dominated by the Democrats, who held both seats continuously from the late 1870s until the late 1960s. At the 1968 election, sitting Democratic senator George Smathers retired, and his seat was won by Republican Edward Gurney.

Gurney served one term, and retired at the 1974 election, after being embroiled in a scandal earlier that year.

At the 1974 election, the seat was won by Richard Stone (D), who won a narrow primary runoff for the Democratic nomination. Stone faced a fierce primary challenge in 1980, and lost the Democratic nomination that year. Later that year, the Democrats lost his Senate seat to Republican candidate Paula Hawkins.

In 1986, Hawkins lost her seat to Governor Bob Graham (D).

While that seat had flipped back and forth between the parties from 1968 to 1986, the Democrats consistently held the second Senate seat. It was held for three terms from 1970 to 1988 by Lawton Chiles. He retired in 1988, but was elected Governor of Florida in 1990.

Chiles’ seat was won in 1988 by Republican US Representative Connie Mack. Mack won the seat for a second term in 1994, before retiring at the 2000 election. His seat was won in 2000 by former US Representative Bill Nelson (D), who won re-election in 2006.

Graham held his Senate seat from the 1986 election until his retirement before the 2004 election. The seat was won by Mel Martinez (R), who had served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the first term of the Bush Administration.

Martinez held the seat until he resigned in September 2009. Governor Charlie Crist (R) appointed his former chief of staff, George LeMieux.

Crist had already announced plans to run for the Senate before Martinez in mid 2009, before Martinez resigned. His main rival in the primary was Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives.

Rubio ran to the right, while Crist was seen as more of a centrist, supporting parts of President Obama”s stimulus bill.

Polling in mid 2009 showed Crist well ahead of Rubio in primary polling, but Rubio caught up to Crist by December 2009. By February 2010, Rubio had a solid lead in primary polling.

In April 2010, Crist withdrew from the Republican primary and announced that he would run for the Senate, amidst polls showing him trailing in primary polling, but competitive in a three-way general election contest. Rubio went on to win the Republican victory practically unopposed.

The Democratic primary was won decisively by Congressman Kendrick Meek, who defeated billionaire Jeff Greene, 57-31.

Polling for the general election has shown Crist and Rubio neck-and-neck in the race for the seat, with Meek polling about 20% of the vote. Many Democrats have already moved across to Crist, but there is a sizeable group of Democrats who have refused to move across to the more electable former Republican, but they will be key to this race.

Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!