From the Nielsen poll in today’s Fairfax papers, Labor’s two-party preferred vote is up two to 54%. On primary votes, Labor is up three to 42, the Coalition down one to 41 and the Greens down one to 12.
There have also been a number of interesting marginal seat polls. An Advertiser poll of the marginal Labor seat of Kingston in Adelaide sho wthe ALP gaining a 13% swing on a two-party preferred vote. Possum is particularly impressed with the robustness of the poll.
Westpoll has conducted polls of four marginal seats in Perth. In the marginal Labor seat of Hasluck, the ALP leads 54-46. In the Liberal seat of Canning, former Labor state minister Alannah MacTiernan is just ahead, 51-49. The Liberals are ahead in Cowan and Swan, both of which they won off the ALP in 2007. Bear in mind that, with a sample size of 400, these polls have a large enough margin of error to overturn any of those results.
In the NSW south coast seat of Gilmore, an Illawarra Mercury poll reports sitting Liberal MP on a solid 60-40 two-party preferred lead, despite the redistribution turning the seat into a notional Labor seat.
Consider this an open thread for federal election discussion this weekend.
Nearly all of the marginal seat polls have shown sitting MPs doing well as expected ina low enthusiasm election.
Canberra times poll on Eden Monaro had a wopping TPP for Mike Kelly 61-39%.
Problem – sample was just over 400. This is an electorate with three quite distinct zones with voting demographics though roughly equal in terms of population, Queanbeyan, rural and the coast. I would be interested to know if they got a sample that properly represented that break up.
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