Ben is joined by Peter Brent and the ABC’s Tom Crowley for the final pre-election episode of the 2025 federal election campaign. We discuss how a hung parliament might play out and the experience of riding Peter Dutton’s campaign bus. For our seat of the week we discuss the NSW seat of Werriwa.
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I would concur that the realism of an independent wave coming through in the lower house is probably over-rated, mainly due to the role that CPV plays in this house. But still the trend is not looking good for the major parties and eventually some of these seats will fall over to independents if this trend continues.
If and when that occurs, the critical question for me is how will the major players work together. It requires a new level of maturity and either of the two major parties will have to change their mindset from their current position to deal with this new reality.
I knew there was a swing to Greens in the Suburbs with high Muslim population, i did not expect it to be this big. The Suburb of Kuraby in the State electorate of Stretton ( Moreton Fed) has the highest Muslim population in Queensland. Greens got 41% of the primary there, in 2020 Election Greens primary at the same booth was just 9.72%
Obviously in a lot of Fed Electorates the Muslim votes who could have gone to the Greens will be captured by the Independents but there should be a relatively big swing to Greens in Electorates with a relatively high Muslim population outside NSW and Vic.
it would be interesting to see if there is a swing against Anne Aly in Cowan. Cowan has been very aggressively targeted by MVM and Fatima Payman