Federal guide unlocked, and SA 2026 guide published

We are now less than two months away from the last possible date for the 2025 Australian federal election, so it seemed to be about time to take down the paywall around my federal election guide. But I am also launching another election guide behind the paywall, my first for 2026.

The first third of my federal guide was published in August 2023, but I wasn’t able to put up the guides for New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Northern Territory electorates until December 2024. Up until now the guide was mostly an exclusive for Patreon members. I really appreciate everyone’s support until now, but I want the maximum number of people to be able to read the guide.

The guide comes to over 102,000 words and will grow slightly more as the final candidates are added over the next month.

For Patreon members, you still have access to the Tally Room discord (now my favourite place on the internet to discuss psephology and elections), the data repository and ad-free podcasts.

I have also now finished my guide to the next major election in Australia after the federal election, which is the South Australian state election, due one year from tomorrow. You can read that guide now if you donate $8 or more per month via Patreon, or if you’re a continuing $5 donor from last year.

Because I am publishing this guide so far in advance, I’ve decided not to fill in the “assessment” section on each guide. We don’t have much polling, and a lot can change this year. I’ll add the assessments later in the year as the picture becomes clearer. But you can see results tables and maps for each electorate, as well as the history of each seat and the changes caused by the (relatively minor) redistribution.

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