WA election night live

12:21 – This is my final update for tonight.

I’ve put together a map showing the estimated 2PP swings at tonight’s election, but you can also toggle to see the 2017 2PP margins and the 2025 2PP margins. Any non-classic seat is in grey.

I’ll probably update these numbers tomorrow and do a proper post but it’s late and I should call it a night.

The map shows clearly that swings became larger as you radiate out from the centre of Perth.

When you toggle between the other layers, you can also see that the 2017 Liberals still maintained a solid core of nine seats stretching from Hillarys to Riverton, along with Dawesville at the very southern tip of the urban area.

In 2025, that heartland is wrecked. They have won Carine and are leading in Churchlands, as well as the non-classic seat of Cottesloe. Nedlands remains pretty close and things could change there.

It’s not that the Liberals have won a lot of other seats to make up for these losses. It’s pretty much just Kalamunda. And those 2017 seats remain some of the smallest margins. But most are still in Labor hands.

11:47 – I’ve also compared the pre-election margin for the ALP in each of these 54 seats to the swing estimated by the ABC tonight. To make the data comparable, I’ve used Antony’s estimates. It shows a clear trend where Labor generally suffered bigger swings in their safer seats. Unsurprising considering some of these enormous margins.

11:29 – The ABC has 2PP estimates for 54 out of 59 seats at the moment, in part thanks to a few of the possible non-classic seats not yet having data to calculate an alternative margin. This means it’s possible to analyse the 2PP swings in those 54 seats. And the average swing tells a story. The average swing against Labor to Liberal or Nationals is:

• Nine inner city electorates – 6.4%
• 21 middle suburban electorates – 10.8%
• 14 outer suburban electorates – 15.1%
• 10 regional electorates – 12.9%

Seems like a clear story of swings getting bigger as you get further out of the inner city of Perth.

11:13 – To focus a bit more on the 2CP pairing, right now I think there’s at least ten seats where it’s unclear what the final 2CP pairing will be. This is a pretty big number and will probably shrink as the primary vote count continues. Albany, Kalgoorlie and Warren-Blackwood are seats where the candidate making the 2CP might actually matter for the outcome. In the other seven it doesn’t matter. Four seats have Labor clearly winning while Liberal and Greens compete for second. In two others the Nationals have clearly won and it’s not clear if Liberal or Labor will come second. There’s also an independent who could potentially overtake the Liberal in Thornlie.

There’s also four seats where the correct 2CP pairing is clear but the WAEC picked the wrong one: Fremantle, Kimberley, Maylands and Pilbara. They chose Greens instead of Independent in Fremantle, Liberal instead of Greens in Mayland, and Nationals instead of Liberal in Pilbara and Kimberley. Usually these are cleaned up in coming days, likely on Monday.

Of the remaining 45 seats, 43 are classic races between Labor and either Liberal or Nationals. Indeed 42 are Labor vs Liberal and the only clear Labor vs Nationals race is in Geraldton. In Mid-West, the race is between Liberal and Nationals, while in Cottesloe it is Liberal vs Independent.

Overall that means that at this point we have 48 classic seats, 4 non-classic seats and 7 seats where it’s not clear. At the very least, that’s more than we saw in 2017 or 2021, but if there end up being eleven non-classic seats that would be equal to the record in 2001.

10:57 – As of a few minutes ago, there were 14 seats where the primary vote gap between second and third is less than 5%. This includes close races like Albany, Warren-Blackwood and Kalgoorlie. But it also includes a bunch of other seats where the result won’t be affected, but we may not know the final 2CP for a while. Right now the Greens are just 27 votes ahead of the Liberal Party in Perth, and the Liberal is just 163 votes ahead of the Greens in Bibra Lake. The gap is just 344 votes in Victoria Park. The Greens aren’t about to win any of these seats but it could be an interesting development for the future.

10:49 – There were 8 urban seats where the Nationals ran. In none of them did they get over 10%, with their vote peaking at 9% in Kalamunda and 7% in Swan Hills. They polled just 2% in Bicton.

10:19 – I’m sure we’re going to get some more detail for the election but for now the picture is reasonably clear. The Liberal and National parties have made some gains off Labor, but not many. Labor looks set, both in seat and 2PP terms, to exceed the 2021 result.

There appears to be seven seats that remain particularly close, but that may change as counting continues tonight.

I’m going to keep tracking those figures for a bit longer and start working on my final analysis.

9:37 – By my reckoning, there are 7 seats with some genuine uncertainty:

• Albany
• Churchlands
• Fremantle
• Kalgoorlie
• Nedlands
• Pilbara
• Warren-Blackwood

I don’t think we will not have a correct 2CP in Fremantle tonight but the independent seems to be in a strong position. In Albany, Kalgoorlie and Warren-Blackwood there is serious doubt about whether the Liberal or Nationals will make the 2CP and probably won’t have an answer until the final distribution is conducted. Arguably Pilbara is in the same category but I think it’s unlikely the Nationals can make the 2CP there.

There have been very few votes counted in Kimberley. That seat could end up being close, but equally could be solid Labor or flip. We have no data from Midland and Murray-Wellington, but it’s likely those seats will stay with Labor based on trends in similar seats.

9:13 – Real preferences in Kalamunda have now pushed that seat into the Liberal column.

9:11 – So for two-candidate-preferred counts to work on the night, the electoral commission needs to choose who they think will be the top two before election night and communicate this to the people running the count in each booth. They can put a stop to the count if they get the wrong combination of candidates, but if they get it wrong it will usually take a lot longer.

It looks like they have guessed correctly in Cottesloe. We don’t have any data but the pairing is Liberal vs Independent. But in Fremantle the 2CP count is Labor vs Greens, not Labor vs Independent. So I don’t expect to get real preferences there tonight.

9:08 – Preference counts are starting to come in, I’m just trying to track down the counts in the interesting seats.

8:54 – After looking through those seats, I have identified five specific seats where the race is genuinely very close:

• Albany
• Churchlands
• Cottesloe
• Kalamunda
• Kalgoorlie

8:51 – By my count at the moment the ABC has given away 31 seats to Labor, 3 to Liberal and 2 to Nationals. Based on a quick check, I see another 10 seats which are very obvious Labor wins but not enough votes have yet been counted to call the seat, and the same is true for the Nationals in two seats. So that brings it up to 41 Labor, 3 Liberal and 4 Nationals. That suggests Labor is now set to at least win as many seats as they did in 2017, and probably more.

Also worth noting we have no data at all from Midland or Murray-Wellington. Midland should stay with Labor, and likely Murray-Wellington too. So right now it looks likely that Labor will at least get to the mid 40s.

8:31 – There are a lot of seats that remain close and it’s worth emphasising that we don’t really have any two-candidate-preferred counts so far. Getting some 2CP counts would really help. We also haven’t really got any pre-poll votes.

8:18 – Outside of the inner city, the Liberals and Nationals are also struggling with other marginals. Labor is leading in Warren-Blackwood, Scarborough and Riverton. The Liberals have won Carine and either the Liberals or Nationals will probably win Geraldton. Albany and Kalgoorlie both look very close. At this point the seat gains are so small that it’s possible the Nationals will still be the bigger party.

8:11 – The big story of Australian elections over the last decade has been inner cities shifting further to the left and I think that’s playing out tonight. The swings to the Liberal Party in some inner city marginals are really quite modest. On the ABC’s 2PP estimates, the swings are:

• 3.6% in Churchlands
• 2.4% in Bateman
• 4.6% in Bicton
• 4.8% in Nedlands
• 7.1% in South Perth
• No primary vote swing in Cottesloe, and close race against an independent.

All six of these seats would have traditionally been safe Liberal seats.

8:05 – I should’ve included Cottesloe in the list of independents earlier. Rachel Horncastle is second on 30% with the Liberals on 46.6%. Right now the ABC computer is giving 53% 2CP to Liberal but that’s based off preference estimates.

8:00 – The vote might pick up as more votes are counted (particularly pre-poll votes), but right now the swing to the Liberals is looking a lot smaller than what we saw in pre-election polls.

7:57 – Right now it’s looking like the vote for independents and minor parties is up off a low base in 2021. Right now there’s about 25% of the vote going to candidates outside of Labor, Liberal and Nationals. The previous record was 28.3% in 2001, and 21.2% in 2017 was the second highest. Whether that will translate into any seat gains, it’s too early to say. Fremantle is looking a bit interesting.

7:52 – How are the prominent independents doing?

• In Bassendean, Renee McLennan is third on 8.9%
• Churchlands, Lisa Thornton is third on 16.6%
• Fremantle, Kate Hulett is leading with 38.2%. But that’s just one booth.
• Nedlands, Rosemary de Vries is fourth on 8.6%

7:41 – South Perth is a traditional safe Liberal seat that has a 10.1% Labor margin after the 2021 landslide. There’s no 2CP count, but off 7 booths the primary vote swing to the Liberal Party is just 3.9%, plus 4.1% for the Nationals, and that seems enough for the ABC computer to have called it for Labor. This is consistent with the ALP doing better than they did in 2017.

7:35 – Basil Zempilas is running for the Liberal Party in Labor’s most marginal seat – Churchlands. You’d expect that to flip easily but right now it’s looking close. The Liberal vote is down 8% – admittedly with a strong independent running. There are no 2CP figures but the ABC’s preference estimate has Zempilas on 50.6%.

7:31 – It’s worth taking a look at Cottesloe. One of the two Liberal seats in 2021, the independent Rachel Horncastle is on 25.5%. The first two booths have the Liberals over 50%, but the ABC is projecting the race as just 51-49 to Liberal over independent.

7:15 – The Liberal Party is narrowly ahead in Albany but it’s still very competitive. If they fall short there it’ll be a very disappointing result.

6:57 – Bunbury is the kind of seat that would fall if the conservative parties were close to taking power, but the swing is falling a long way short. The first booth has a 17.7% swing away from Labor and 8.4% to the Liberals – the ABC thinks that’s a 2PP swing of 12.4%, which is far short of what they’d need to win.

6:49 – Kalgoorlie is a particularly complex seat to watch. Labor held the seat by an 11.2% margin, and are facing a challenge from Liberal, Nationals and the ex-Liberal MP as an independent. The first booth is showing a big swing against Labor but also a swing against the Liberal Party, with a wide range of conservative challengers all clustered together.

6:45 – A few other seats have very small samples of primary vote results. When the ABC applies their estimate of preference flows, they tend to be producing expected 2PP swings somewhere in the teens. Which is consistent with the conservative parties bouncing back to the numbers they had in 2017 (roughly) but a long way short of winning the election.

6:40 – The mobile polling in Morley is showing a swing in the mid-teens projected. This is consistent with a statewide result similar to 2017.

6:00 – Polls have just closed for the Western Australian state election. I’ll be tracking the results tonight, so please stay tuned.