Ben is joined by Stewart Jackson and Andre Brett to discuss which seats might fall when the Labor vote in the WA state election recedes from the high levels reached in 2021, and how the minor parties might perform under the new Legislative Council electoral system.
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My take
The wealthy seats like Nedlands Carine
Church lands Riverton will be lost to
Labor.
Seats such as South Perth Scarborough will be close.
Any seats with a alp margin greater than
20% will be retained for the most part.
Unclear Darling Range Kalamunda
Now We come to the regional seats
Unexpectedly most will be retained as people want a voice in government.
Warren- Blackwood likely to be won by the nats
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off some of the under 10% seats to Labor. There was a massive 10% swing back to Labor in 2015 in NSW and they still didn’t pick up East Hills (.2%), Monaro (2%) and Oatley (3.8%). There will likely be a few seats under 10% Labor hold onto and than maybe even some seats on margins over 20% that Labor lose.
I think Labor will get smaller swings against them in their inner city seats and much bigger swings in the outer suburbs and outside Perth.