8:00am – It appears that the final pre-poll figures for Werribee came in just after midnight, and the Labor lead increased slightly to 441 votes. This is definitely not enough to call the seat for Labor so we will need to watch as the final postal votes are counted.
11:49 – On the other hand, it’s possible that the remaining early votes are more favourable to the ALP.
I’m going to call it a night here, and will update this in the morning if that final 2CP data comes through.
11:41 – The first large batch of pre-poll votes have reported 2CP votes in Werribee. About 10,000 pre-poll votes have 2CPs out of a total of 23,000 on the primary count. Those early votes have the Liberal Party leading by 704 votes, leaving Labor in the lead by just 353.
If the remaining batch break by the same margin, it would put the Liberal Party in front.
11:31 – They’re not the most exciting booth maps, but I’ve produced maps showing the 2CP swing and percent in both seats. There’s a ‘0’ for the Chapel booth in Prahran which didn’t have a 2022 match. Probably the most interesting thing is that the Liberal Party has lost most election day booths in both seats, but in Prahran they still managed to win on the back of pre-poll and postal votes, and in Werribee it looks likely to bring them close.
11:24 – Chatter about turnout usually starts up too early, before all of the votes have been counted, but the turnout in Prahran seems particularly low. As of right now, the Prahran turnout is 64.3%, and Werribee is 74.9%. Apparently there are about 2,000 postal votes expected to come in later. Even if there were 4,000 votes to add, that only brings the turnout up to 72.6%.
In contrast, no by-election in the last decade has had a turnout lower than 78.9%. The best comparison would be the Northcote by-election in 2017, when turnout was 79%. But I did go back further and find that turnout at the 2012 Melbourne by-election was only 68.6%. Which is very close to where Prahran would turn out if just 2,000 more votes were added.
So, yes, the turnout does look low, certainly lower than Werribee, but not unprecedented for an inner Melbourne by-election.
11:03 – For what it’s worth, it looks like most or all of the pre-poll votes have been counted in Prahran and the Liberal remains almost 1000 votes ahead of the Greens. Just over half of the postal votes have been counted, but that’s unlikely to turn things around. It looks like the Liberal Party will gain Prahran from the Greens.
As for Werribee, most of the pre-poll votes have been counted for the primary vote but not the 2CP. While the primary vote suggests the pre-poll is slightly better for the Liberal Party, it’s not a huge difference. But we’ll need to wait for those 2CP votes to be counted to make a call in Werribee.
9:47 – The 2CP swings in Prahran are all in the teens, and most of them are over 12%. Right now it looks like the Liberals are favourites to win.
9:21 – It appears that the Liberal Party is winning a very narrow majority of preferences flowing in Prahran. They’re gaining 50.8% in Chapel, 51.7% in Fawkner Park, 56.1% in Orrong, 53.9% in Prahran, 50.3% in Prahran East and 49.7% in South Yarra. This suggests the Greens need a primary vote lead to win.
9:04 – Eight booths have reported primary votes in Prahran, and the Greens and Liberal are tied on about 36% each. The Greens are on 53.7% of the 2CP.
9:03 – Ten booths have reported primary votes in Werribee, and Labor is leading 29-27. Four booths have reported 2PP figures and Labor is leading with 50.37%.
8:33 – That booth was Thomas Chirnside. Labor polled 29% of the primary vote to 24.5% Liberal, and that translated to a Labor 2PP of 55%. Labor got 57% of preferences from other candidates. This suggests a neck-and-neck primary vote is not enough for the Liberal to win.
8:30 – We now have some more two-party-preferred figures in Werribee and Labor is on 51.05%.
8:21 – Six booths have now reported primary votes in Prahran, plus some early votes. It’ll be hard to say who is winning until we have some real 2CP numbers but right now the Greens are looking stronger, leading 40-31.
8:08 – Worth noting that there isn’t much of a swing to the Liberal Party in Werribee – most of the swing away from Labor is going to minor parties. That 16% 2PP swing in Little River is impressive but if that drops to, say, 8% or 9% in the bigger booths then that would be too little for the Liberals.
8:04 – We finally have some results from Prahran, with primary votes in Orrong showing both Liberal and Greens on about 37%. No real 2CP numbers yet.
8:03 – We’ve also got some results for Thomas Chirnside, Westgrove and Riverside and Labor is below 30% in all three booths. Overall Labor is on 27% to Liberal 25%. Paul Hopper is on 13% and Victorian Socialists are just under 10%.
7:42 – The 2PP for Little River is 60-40 to the Liberal Party. That’s a swing of 16%. Of course it’s worth noting that Little River is a rural booth a long way from the rest of the Werribee population and may not be representative of the rest of the seat. We still have no other results.
7:02 – First booth has reported for Werribee – it’s Little River. Labor is on just 20% and the Liberal Party on 40% of the primary vote. Labor polled 43.5% there last time so that’s a big swing.
6:55 – I was out earlier and have only just started following hte results – but in case you weren’t sure, no votes have been published yet on the VEC site.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the two Victorian state by-elections in Prahran and Werribee. I’ll be following the results here tonight.
Adam Werribee isn’t declared yet
This is the second election I have watched where the alp did not run a candidate. The first was Manly in 2017, where I was managing an IND
It was astonishing to see the fury of rusted-on ALP voters who arrived at the booths to find they had no-one to vote for. I don’t know how they voted but I do believe it altered the result.
Does anybody know whether that fury was replicated in Prahran?
Geoff Lambert
The Liberals ultimately probably benefit from not having to run this guy again in Werribee, clearly they have issues with campaign infrastructure out west and still have heaps of work to do in order to appeal to disgruntled Labor voters – of which there are loads of, nearly 17% primary swing against Labor…
Let’s not forget that in the context of Prahran either, the humiliation factor of running and falling way behind has not been proven wrong at all
I have intently studied preference flows from a number of recent elections. The one that stands out the most is the QLD state election because there was good polling before the election and Newspoll was spot on with the primary votes of both major parties but missed the 2PP by some 1.5%. We can add the last NT and ACT elections into the mix but on a less reliable basis. Generally, the ‘other’ vote is becoming very large and I’m not sure pollsters have got it right. Yes, Labor picked up 62% of the non-two major party preference flow at the last federal election but this was somewhat a historical high against an unpopular government. Assuming preference flows will occur in the same way as the last election, I think, is fraught with danger and potential inaccuracy. The examples in these two by-elections are further examples of my point. Here, in Werribee, we have primary votes broadly similar for the two major parties and 2PP broadly similar. Yet in federal polling we have the coalition between 7-8 points ahead on primary, but pollsters are saying the 2PP is 50/50.
My tip: in the federal election, if the coalition get 8 points ahead on the primary vote compared to the ALP or if the coalition get to a 40% primary vote, the ALP will not form the next government. At an 8 point primary vote gap, I think it is more likely than not that the coalition would get around 51.5% of the TPP.
This again shows that the Liberals can win seats in Victoria, and they just have won a safe progressive seat.
The woke parts of Prahran in the far south voted Greens still, but the more moderate areas went back to the Liberals.
Could this be a factor of two things?:
A. John Pesutto being a moderate (I know he’s gone now but he was there for much of the campaign)
B. The Greens being way too woke and extreme and focusing on Palestine and idpol over the environment
These were factors in the Brisbane seats (in BCC wards the LNP still won a lot of federal and state Greens booths). If it weren’t for Labor’s abortion scare campaign they would’ve won back Maiwar.
I think the Prahran result is entirely down to the difference between a general election where Labor is running and handing out ALP 1 GRN 2 HTVs, and one where they’re not running. We’ll see from the full district how influential Tony Lupton was but I think even without him Labor’s voters may well go from 80/20 to 50/50 , and that’s the ones that show up. Plus relatively depressed turnout from young voters.
Didn’t get the sense from primary votes that the Greens are in much trouble with the base that won them Prahran in the past. They have perhaps declined a bit with the doctors wives/teal demographic but it’s not definitive.
I question what you consider as woke NP, considering a lot of people who use that word would consider the entire area woke – socially progressive, small l liberal, LINO all fall under said term etc…at the federal level, even Katie Allen would and has been labelled that in the past.
Anyway, I doubt John Pesutto had that much effect, he’s been in the background for over a month now – Rachel Westaway is also a moderate in any case.
One thing I’m quite curious about is that Manor Lake booth in Werribee – a 16% swing that is now strongly Liberal for an on the day vote. Even Little River still has a Labor aligned 2PP for on the day.
@WL I think Ben might’ve got this numbers mixed up on the map. The Manor Lake one should be 56% Labor whilst the 60% Liberal belongs to Little River.
The last redistribution substantially boosted the non liberal vote on Prahan to the extent it improved labors position against the greens As suspected the greens won again in 2022.
It is quite possible that this seat votes alp or green next state election.
The Werribee result is another example of where the vote has completely splintered. Both ALP and Libs are <30% primary vote and there are other candidates with decent votes in the 8 – 10% range. This seems to be happening in areas with larger South Asian communities such as Western Melbourne and areas in Casey (city of not electorate of). Not so sure if it is happening in parts of Western Sydney as well. On one hand it shows a disengagement with the main political parties as we know them and on the other hand they are areas where Labor are now forced to engage and not take the areas for granted. Not sure how it will play out. Thoughts?
In reality the right wing media (C7, Murdoch Empire, 3AW, AFR) would have rather that the Greens retained Prahran, and that the Liberals won Werribee. It would have suited their narrative that the Greens represent “Inner City elites” (sic), whereas the hard right Liberal Party message resonates with the working class.
Prahran voters didn’t endorse a Dutton/ Battin agenda. They elected a “moderate” (sic) Pesutto endorsed candidate. Westaway is politically adjacent to Kamala Harris. She uses the identity politics card whilst promoting incarceration as a solution to poverty, and slash and burn economics. At the same time she is reluctant to engage in Temu Trump’s culture wars. She knows transphobia, and anti choice BS isn’t going to fly in South Yarra, and Prahran. Having a “moderate” Liberal MP isn’t going to affect the pay packets of most electors in the Prahran district. On the contrary, it will probably boost their overall bank balances. Westaway will do nothing to defend the residents of the public housing towers in South Yarra, Prahran, Windsor, and St Kilda. She will do nothing for trans youth, yet she will promote the pink dollar. I can see her draping herself in a rainbow flag in a photo opportunity with Gay nightclub owners.
Yes, Werribee quite rightly rejected Labor, yet they did not embrace the Liberal Party. The people of Werribee said they want an alternative, hence high votes for Hopper, VS, and LC. VS continue to poll well in the west because they promote policies that workers know will benefit them (redistribution of wealth, state run utilities, public housing, public schooling, accessible public transport, a non discriminatory NDIS). The Greens are viewed as bougie hippies in much of the west (Seddon, and Yarraville excluded). The Greens are not as popular in West Brunswick, as they are in Brunswick, and Brunswick East. The polling station that covers north west Brunswick West is solidly Labor with a high VS vote. The western suburbs arguably start here