11:49 – On the other hand, it’s possible that the remaining early votes are more favourable to the ALP.
I’m going to call it a night here, and will update this in the morning if that final 2CP data comes through.
11:41 – The first large batch of pre-poll votes have reported 2CP votes in Werribee. About 10,000 pre-poll votes have 2CPs out of a total of 23,000 on the primary count. Those early votes have the Liberal Party leading by 704 votes, leaving Labor in the lead by just 353.
If the remaining batch break by the same margin, it would put the Liberal Party in front.
11:31 – They’re not the most exciting booth maps, but I’ve produced maps showing the 2CP swing and percent in both seats. There’s a ‘0’ for the Chapel booth in Prahran which didn’t have a 2022 match. Probably the most interesting thing is that the Liberal Party has lost most election day booths in both seats, but in Prahran they still managed to win on the back of pre-poll and postal votes, and in Werribee it looks likely to bring them close.
11:24 – Chatter about turnout usually starts up too early, before all of the votes have been counted, but the turnout in Prahran seems particularly low. As of right now, the Prahran turnout is 64.3%, and Werribee is 74.9%. Apparently there are about 2,000 postal votes expected to come in later. Even if there were 4,000 votes to add, that only brings the turnout up to 72.6%.
In contrast, no by-election in the last decade has had a turnout lower than 78.9%. The best comparison would be the Northcote by-election in 2017, when turnout was 79%. But I did go back further and find that turnout at the 2012 Melbourne by-election was only 68.6%. Which is very close to where Prahran would turn out if just 2,000 more votes were added.
So, yes, the turnout does look low, certainly lower than Werribee, but not unprecedented for an inner Melbourne by-election.
11:03 – For what it’s worth, it looks like most or all of the pre-poll votes have been counted in Prahran and the Liberal remains almost 1000 votes ahead of the Greens. Just over half of the postal votes have been counted, but that’s unlikely to turn things around. It looks like the Liberal Party will gain Prahran from the Greens.
As for Werribee, most of the pre-poll votes have been counted for the primary vote but not the 2CP. While the primary vote suggests the pre-poll is slightly better for the Liberal Party, it’s not a huge difference. But we’ll need to wait for those 2CP votes to be counted to make a call in Werribee.
9:47 – The 2CP swings in Prahran are all in the teens, and most of them are over 12%. Right now it looks like the Liberals are favourites to win.
9:21 – It appears that the Liberal Party is winning a very narrow majority of preferences flowing in Prahran. They’re gaining 50.8% in Chapel, 51.7% in Fawkner Park, 56.1% in Orrong, 53.9% in Prahran, 50.3% in Prahran East and 49.7% in South Yarra. This suggests the Greens need a primary vote lead to win.
9:04 – Eight booths have reported primary votes in Prahran, and the Greens and Liberal are tied on about 36% each. The Greens are on 53.7% of the 2CP.
9:03 – Ten booths have reported primary votes in Werribee, and Labor is leading 29-27. Four booths have reported 2PP figures and Labor is leading with 50.37%.
8:33 – That booth was Thomas Chirnside. Labor polled 29% of the primary vote to 24.5% Liberal, and that translated to a Labor 2PP of 55%. Labor got 57% of preferences from other candidates. This suggests a neck-and-neck primary vote is not enough for the Liberal to win.
8:30 – We now have some more two-party-preferred figures in Werribee and Labor is on 51.05%.
8:21 – Six booths have now reported primary votes in Prahran, plus some early votes. It’ll be hard to say who is winning until we have some real 2CP numbers but right now the Greens are looking stronger, leading 40-31.
8:08 – Worth noting that there isn’t much of a swing to the Liberal Party in Werribee – most of the swing away from Labor is going to minor parties. That 16% 2PP swing in Little River is impressive but if that drops to, say, 8% or 9% in the bigger booths then that would be too little for the Liberals.
8:04 – We finally have some results from Prahran, with primary votes in Orrong showing both Liberal and Greens on about 37%. No real 2CP numbers yet.
8:03 – We’ve also got some results for Thomas Chirnside, Westgrove and Riverside and Labor is below 30% in all three booths. Overall Labor is on 27% to Liberal 25%. Paul Hopper is on 13% and Victorian Socialists are just under 10%.
7:42 – The 2PP for Little River is 60-40 to the Liberal Party. That’s a swing of 16%. Of course it’s worth noting that Little River is a rural booth a long way from the rest of the Werribee population and may not be representative of the rest of the seat. We still have no other results.
7:02 – First booth has reported for Werribee – it’s Little River. Labor is on just 20% and the Liberal Party on 40% of the primary vote. Labor polled 43.5% there last time so that’s a big swing.
6:55 – I was out earlier and have only just started following hte results – but in case you weren’t sure, no votes have been published yet on the VEC site.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the two Victorian state by-elections in Prahran and Werribee. I’ll be following the results here tonight.
What I’m finding bizarre tonight is Tony Lupton’s preferences.
Tony Lupton is an independent who was touted as the “Labor-esque” or “Labor lite” candidate. But it’s still no surprise he didn’t get much of the Labor vote (Labor got 26.7% in Prahran in 2022 with Wesa Chau as the candidate, while Tony Lupton currently has 12.8%).
However, the odd thing is despite being a Labor-like candidate, his preferences are actually helping the Liberals. On first preferences, the Liberals are currently only leading Labor by 16 votes, but on TCP the Liberals are currently ahead by 1,061 votes.
Fun fact: if the Greens lose it will be the first time a Liberal has won a seat from the Greens.
And if they lose again in 2026 then it’ll be just the second time in history that the Greens have lost a seat they held at the previous election to another party (the first time was in 2024 when Labor regained South Brisbane from the Greens).
@Nether Portal: it’s interesting because Westaway claimed to be a social progressive but economic conservative, indicating her desire to stay away from the culture wars. She even talked about the racism she experienced when first entering politics.
As for Werribee. The Liberal Party message doesn’t cut it out west. The Western suburbs are solidly working class. People are quite rightly fed up with Labor but they don’t want the conservative alternative. VS does well in the west because essentially they stand on an old school leftist platform (money for social services, trade unionism, and redistribution of wealth). The west is socially and economically progressive, yet the media types still don’t realize that.
I assume there is a reasonable number of people who usually vote Labor that voted Green in Prahran, given that their primary is about the same even without Hibbins personal vote. But it’s nowhere near the 80% of general election vote 1 Labor voters that usually boost the Greens 2PP.
In elections where Liberals don’t recommend preferences between Labor and Greens, they split about 50/50. It seems like in the absence of Labor, Labor’s usual voters aren’t much different between Liberals and Greens. We’ll need to see the full distribution to see how influential Lupton was in particular.
I can very much see Di Camillo not being blamed for a loss, and following the tradition of Dave Sharma and Sharon Bird of candidates accused of being blow ins that lose by elections, then win after staying around and building a local profile.
@No Mondays I agree there. Western Melbourne isn’t the same as Western Sydney despite being demographically similar (ethnic working-class, poor, lots of crime and gangs). Melton is an exception.
The NSW Liberals have inroads into ethnic communities (especially middle-class Asian and Indian communities and families) that the Victorian Liberals don’t have.
I suppose one reason why is the lack of a landslide for the Coalition. In 2011 the NSW Coalition won in a historic landslide. They had to defend a lot of seats, many of which were in Greater Western Sydney. So in 2015 and 2019 they campaigned hard and held on to those seats. Even in 2023 when they lost some of them they still held some. In fact, the Liverpool area actually improved for the Liberals and is better for them now than it was in 2011.
Meanwhile, the Victorian Liberals only scraped to power in 2010 because Victorian Labor wasn’t as big of a failure as NSW Labor who were a joke at the time. Therefore, there was no need to campaign hard in a seat like this because they had low hanging fruit in the Eastern Suburbs.
The so-called ‘nuclear-option’ would only deliver Ryan to the Liberals. And possibly Brisbane if the Greens remain in the 2CP count (but there’s a good chance Labor could be in the 2CP count this year), and maybe also Macnamara is Labor falls out of the 2CP.
Melbourne, Griffith, Wills, Cooper etc are Labor v Greens so who Labor directs preferences to means nothing. Plus Labor would obviously rather the Greens win a seat over the Liberals if Labor can’t win it.
I’m calling Prahran as a Liberal gain. Still curious about Werribee as the pre-poll vote was massive.
Not to mention Liverpool also has a Liberal Mayor who is popular, Ned Mannoun. Ned’s wife Tina Ayyad is the Liberal member for Holsworthy. Their surnames are both Arabic and they are both Muslim, which is interesting as Muslims tend to be quite Labor-voting.
BREAKING NEWS: ABC CALLS PRAHRAN
Prahran has been won by a candidate, and it’s not the one we expected. It’s Rachel Westaway, a moderate Liberal, with a mere 51.6% of the TCP vote.
Congratulations on an upset win Rachel!
He preferenced the Greens 11th out of 11.
*Tony Lupton that is
Another dump of pre-poll’s just come in for Werribee and Labor’s closed the gap to about 188 on first preferences. Surprisingly apart from Hopper who’s on 5888 in primaries, the combined left-wing party primary votes (AJ, Greens, VS, Cannabis) amount to about 8000+ and assuming preferences flow the way we think they will I can see the gap being about 51-49 in Labor’s favour but can’t say for sure because preferences have been all over the place, particularly Hopper.
Melbourne on its new boundary could become a Green vs Liberals seat in most elections.
@Nether Portal – Western Sydney is nothing like Western Melbourne. The Sydney CBD is in the far east of the metropolitan area meaning well over half of the population lives in the western suburbs. This means there is a huge mix of demographics including many middle class areas which are winnable for the Liberals.
In Melbourne less than 20% of the population live out west, and almost the entire region is very working class.
I wonder if Advance Australia will wheel out Arch Bevis, Leonie Short, Terri Butler, Lindsay Tanner, Michael Danby, Kelvin Thomson and so on to run as independents putting Greens last in key seats. “Former Labor member for your local area says put Greens last” seemed to have an effect here
‘Former Labor member for your local area says put Greens last’ – There’s a reason they were voted out lol.
@NP – WOW! Absolutely amazed at the result here! Congrats to Rachel, and also Angelica on well-run campaigns!
Looking at it in depth, the main reason the Greens will likely lose Prahran is because their primary was stagnant. If it increased a lot more and preference flows were identical they would have held. And of course, Lupton’s 12%.
This is an absolute upset: the Greens losing here will definitely have a big impact for them. Add to that, I’m impressed Tony Lupton did so well despite running as an ‘old school’ Labor candidate in a seat where they would naturally be more left-wing.
On Prahran, the Greens did poorly with the absence of Labor. Ironically, Labor’s appearance at general elections directed preferences to the Greens. I wrote in the main Prahran thread that Sam Hibbins had a solid personal vote and given that and the low turnout, which is typical of a by-election, the Greens would see a slide in the 2PP.
Tony Lupton was the vote splitter as he is Labor-like and had an endorsement from Steve Bracks on his HTV card. He put the Libs second and Greens last. He might’ve sucked up protest votes or Labor votes and directed them to the Liberals. There is the possibility that Labor voters stayed home or voted Liberals as they couldn’t bring themselves to vote Green.
There are postal votes remaining but they wont bode well for the Greens.
Pretty embarrassing for the Greens – but by-election losses tend to get reversed at the next general (see Greens winning Northcote some years ago at a by-election). Maybe that will happen here as well?
Surprised at Prahran result. I am questioning myself because it continues the recent trend of the Greens not doing well: QLD state, Brisbane council, Vic councils and I think NSW councils. They seem to have a P/R issue.
I think had the liberals had a better candidate in Werribee then they would now be in a winning position. He does not come over well.
In Werribee it’s 53/47 Labor’s way and Labor’s getting 51% of the preferences.
No Mondays has a good point about Werribee. People swung away from Labor but didn’t want a conservative alternative. There were upticks in Liberal votes. Most switched to an independent or left-wing candidates.
Does this result mean Labor are likely to hold onto Macnamara and Wills federally? Greens not doing well certainly appears to be a trend now.
The Libs should select Rajan Chopra as their 2026 Werribee candidate. It seems they nailed the Prahran one in Rachel Westaway.
Macnamara maybe, particularly if there’s a swing away from Greens in St Kilda, Windsor and so forth. With Labor in contention it’s likely that moderate-ish Green voters could eat further into the Greens by voting Labor and thus giving Labor enough advantage to overcome the Liberals in Caulfield. But then again state vs federal is different. Josh Burns does seem to be working hard though so it’s all still possible.
Wills is gone. Too many leftist parties running who will fuel preferences to the Greens galore, whilst Liberals play dead and Labor drops from a combination of Brunswick left votes + Palestine protests.
@Ian knowing the Victorian Liberals they’ll probably pre-select Murphy again on the basis that he ‘almost won the seat’. It’s the Nathan Conroy maneuver. Made the seat of Dunkley marginal so now he’s running again this year.
VEC now projecting with prepolls coming in Labor is on 50.6% 2PP. Should be interesting to see how it goes as the gap is just under 400.
Werribee looks a lot tighter with a dump of prepolls. ALP 50.6%.
@Adam. All four Brunswick wards are Green. Admittedly the western part of Brunswick West (west of the Freeway) is in Maribyrnong. The ward that covers Fawkner, and Merlynston is held by Sue Bolton. Sue Bolton is running in Wills, and will preference the Greens. There is a big anti Khalil sentiment in Wills. Personally I think the Greens will win Wills, even though Advance Australia has had anti Greens mobile billboards in parts of the electorate. Every work day I travel through parts of Wills and see Greens yard signs everywhere. Every Khalil bill poster has been revamped (so to speak).
I don’t see the Greens winning other Labor seats. Some say they could win Cooper. I can’t comment on Cooper, as I have nothing to do with that area, it’s way too far east from where I live, and I have no reason to venture into those suburbs (unless for political activities). They have nothing that mine doesn’t already have. I have no clue what the sentiment is out there.
Only counted half Early Vote 2PP in Werribee. Hope they include it tonight ?
The swings away from the Greens in aforementioned places were mainly in inner-city, more educated electorates, not statewide. They were in electorates that strongly voted Greens in the past.
I reckon Labor or Josh Burns could save Macnamara given his personal vote. Wills will quite likely flip. It contains less affluent middle-ring suburbs who are feeling the pinch. The Palestine issue could also woo voters to the Greens. A possible saving grace is that the Brunswick booths swing to Labor and away from the Greens.
It won’t be enough in Wills to save Labor because the Brunswick booths will still likely carry 55% and above for the Greens whereas Labor will be fighting to sandbag the northern part of the electorate with the big Muslim population. Cooper is out of the equation for the timebeing as they’ve got Ged Kearney who’s from the left and appeals to the electorate.
Back to Werribee, it’s still anyone’s game at the moment but it appears the 2PP of the early vote was the first batch that heavily favoured Liberals. The second batch was much more favourable to Labor and the progressive parties so when those come back in on preferences we’ll get a clearer picture.
@Ben Raue I think you might have the numbers slightly mixed up on your swing map. The 60% that you’ve got for Manor Lakes or thereabouts should be for Little River which has a 56% Labor win on your map right?
On Wills. Peter Khalil in Wills has had his margin cut to 2.6% by electoral boundary changes favouring the Greens. He is also facing Samantha Ratnam for the Greens, a former Mayor and former leader of the Greens in the Victorian Upper House and a veteran campaigner.
Peter Khalil has alienated his climate community with his own Climate and Environment Advisory committee resigning en-masse in September 2024. This is more than just the Federal coal approvals that triggered the resignation, but the trivial treatment of his own advisory committee on the issue. https://climateactionmerribek.org/2024/09/25/advisory-group-dumps-wills-mp-peter-khalil-due-to-fossil-fuel-approvals/
He now has major national (ACF and 350.org) and local climate organisations campaigning on this issue. Add to the fact the large Arabic and Muslim migrant population which he hasn’t endeared himself with over the Gaza issue.
Disclosure: I am a Wills voter
Considering the by-election specific factor of Labor’s absence in Prahran, I wouldn’t view it as very representative of how future results in that area will look. There have been weak results from the Greens in recent elections to be sure but this one is perhaps more a sign that Labor voters are more apathetic about giving their primary vote as opposed to following a Labor HTV than expected. Going forward, the Greens will probably need to ensure their candidate quality is top-notch, though – it does seem that they can’t expect to have “rusted on” voters in the way the majors would, and that’s been seen in more elections than just this one.
I actually get the feeling these results could end up deceiving the Liberals as to where their best prospects lie. I can imagine this win being taken as a vindication of them still being a force in the “cultural left” parts of Australia’s cities but I’m very doubtful of their ability to replicate this win in a general election (likely would need a substantial personal vote from the new MP). Meanwhile, the Werribee result if Labor narrowly holds might be seen as a sign they aren’t quite ready to break through yet, although it is still a substantial swing. If Labor does hold I think this would have come down to the campaign and candidate quality.
The think the reason for the massive swing in Little River is due to a controversy of a renewable energy project nearby which led to a campaign from TV Star Catriona Rowntree
I’m not a psephologist but hoping if anyone could help confirm/deconfirm my suspicion.
I suspect a part of why the Greens lost Prahran is Greens primary vote is stagnant; The by election and 2022 Primary vote for the Greens is around 36%. As such, the 2pp result for the Greens is very sensitive towards preference flows and any shift in preferences away from the Greens can lead to them losing seats as seen through Prahran with typical Labor voters preferencing Liberals and South Brisbane in 2024 with Liberal voters preferencing Labor.
Obviously this isn’t the only reason the Greens lost Prahran (e.g., swing towards Liberals in VIC in general, Lupton preferencing Liberals over Greens, loss of Hibbin’s personal vote, etc.) but I’m asking about my suspicions mainly bc there might be some Federal implications for the Greens.
I think turnout killed the greens, they knew it was coming too – I passed through South Yarra today and they had two vols outside the railway station handing out HTVCs telling everyone passing by there was a by-election happening
Biggest takeaway for me from Werribee is that with a longer and more concentrated campaign Hopper can possibly make the 2CP unless the Liberals make big strides and select a good candidate next time
Libs can’t win prahan you said. Who’s laughing now
What’s the bigger surprise in Prahran? Liberals winning by 1.6% or turnout coming in at 64%?
Question is would the Liberals have done well in the by-elections had Pesutto still been leader.
@maxim neither really i thought libs would edge them out and low turnout is normal for a by electionespecially since Labor was a no show.
Given most of the candidates had no preference preferred and there was no Labor candidate in always thought this would happen especially with the greens in disarray and on the nose due to their stances.
Werribee will be interesting to see the final count as postal can still come in. A recount may be required also given how close the result is.
Werribee is definitely in play in 2026. I think greens will back Prahan once the turnout increases again and Labor directing preferences to the greens as well.
Liberals picked up Prahran because of factors very specific to the byelection:
– Very low turnout
– No Labor candidate
– Lupton’s HTVC sending Labor votes to Libs
– General byelection “send a message” vibe
– Importantly, without the context of a statewide election, Advance & Liberals focusing nearly all their resources on one seat with a “Put the Greens last message” which worked for (just) enough voters, mostly postal voters who were decisive as they broke 65-35 which is huge
Greens won every polling day booth except two.
At a general election in 2026, without any of these factors, full turnout, no Lupton, and Labor running, this is an easy Greens gain again.
Preferences decided this, it flipped because the Liberals got over 50% of the preferences which would just never happen with a Labor candidate. The Greens probably only needed about 50.1% of the preferences to retain the seat.
Because this result emboldens the Liberals, and Battin’s leadership, I bet Labor wish they ran a candidate now.
The Liberals have had a good night by winning Prahran. They might still win Werribee but they might have actually already won Werribee with a better candidate. If the Liberals are to actually win seats in the Western Suburbs and the result tonight shows that they realistically potentially can – they need to put up plausible candidates who can appeal across the political spectrum. The Bev Macarthurs, Moira Deemings and Bernie Finns of this world have been in a little ideological bubble where 1 upper house seat is the only prize. Senior leadership need to step in and make sure there are candidates are in place that can win >50% rather than ones for whom 35% is a good result.
@trent it may be retained by the greens but westaway has time to build up a sophomore vote and if the libs can deliver they may hold on to some of those votes. I’d expect a greens regain too but on a reduced margin then they previously held it
@redistributed a narrow loss could help them select the Indian guy many were suggesting. I think further counting will hand this one to the libs. Just.
Turnout at 65% wss low but at 82% at the 2022 election it was low then too. By election as a % of general it might actually not be that surprising. Being an area with high renters the electoral roll churn must be very high.
Labor not running a candidate and the results tonight seem to indicate that there are a substantial proportion of usual Labor voters who don’t want to preference the Greens. Some of the NT results showed this as well. Labor are being eaten away at three sides – by the Greens in the inner cities, Conservatives in outer suburban and previously winnable regional seats, and Teals and independents in unwinnable previously Conservative seats by draining away primary and senate votes. Hence a national PV in the low 30s or even 20s. The Liberals and Nationals are having similar issues but holding up better. Where the Greens have won they have made a meal of Labor. Labor might in Macnamara or Ryan or Griffith – seats where they might come third – take the radical option of an open ticket – let their voters decide where their preferences go – rather than being turkeys voting for Christmss. Short term pain for longer term gain.