11:49 – On the other hand, it’s possible that the remaining early votes are more favourable to the ALP.
I’m going to call it a night here, and will update this in the morning if that final 2CP data comes through.
11:41 – The first large batch of pre-poll votes have reported 2CP votes in Werribee. About 10,000 pre-poll votes have 2CPs out of a total of 23,000 on the primary count. Those early votes have the Liberal Party leading by 704 votes, leaving Labor in the lead by just 353.
If the remaining batch break by the same margin, it would put the Liberal Party in front.
11:31 – They’re not the most exciting booth maps, but I’ve produced maps showing the 2CP swing and percent in both seats. There’s a ‘0’ for the Chapel booth in Prahran which didn’t have a 2022 match. Probably the most interesting thing is that the Liberal Party has lost most election day booths in both seats, but in Prahran they still managed to win on the back of pre-poll and postal votes, and in Werribee it looks likely to bring them close.
11:24 – Chatter about turnout usually starts up too early, before all of the votes have been counted, but the turnout in Prahran seems particularly low. As of right now, the Prahran turnout is 64.3%, and Werribee is 74.9%. Apparently there are about 2,000 postal votes expected to come in later. Even if there were 4,000 votes to add, that only brings the turnout up to 72.6%.
In contrast, no by-election in the last decade has had a turnout lower than 78.9%. The best comparison would be the Northcote by-election in 2017, when turnout was 79%. But I did go back further and find that turnout at the 2012 Melbourne by-election was only 68.6%. Which is very close to where Prahran would turn out if just 2,000 more votes were added.
So, yes, the turnout does look low, certainly lower than Werribee, but not unprecedented for an inner Melbourne by-election.
11:03 – For what it’s worth, it looks like most or all of the pre-poll votes have been counted in Prahran and the Liberal remains almost 1000 votes ahead of the Greens. Just over half of the postal votes have been counted, but that’s unlikely to turn things around. It looks like the Liberal Party will gain Prahran from the Greens.
As for Werribee, most of the pre-poll votes have been counted for the primary vote but not the 2CP. While the primary vote suggests the pre-poll is slightly better for the Liberal Party, it’s not a huge difference. But we’ll need to wait for those 2CP votes to be counted to make a call in Werribee.
9:47 – The 2CP swings in Prahran are all in the teens, and most of them are over 12%. Right now it looks like the Liberals are favourites to win.
9:21 – It appears that the Liberal Party is winning a very narrow majority of preferences flowing in Prahran. They’re gaining 50.8% in Chapel, 51.7% in Fawkner Park, 56.1% in Orrong, 53.9% in Prahran, 50.3% in Prahran East and 49.7% in South Yarra. This suggests the Greens need a primary vote lead to win.
9:04 – Eight booths have reported primary votes in Prahran, and the Greens and Liberal are tied on about 36% each. The Greens are on 53.7% of the 2CP.
9:03 – Ten booths have reported primary votes in Werribee, and Labor is leading 29-27. Four booths have reported 2PP figures and Labor is leading with 50.37%.
8:33 – That booth was Thomas Chirnside. Labor polled 29% of the primary vote to 24.5% Liberal, and that translated to a Labor 2PP of 55%. Labor got 57% of preferences from other candidates. This suggests a neck-and-neck primary vote is not enough for the Liberal to win.
8:30 – We now have some more two-party-preferred figures in Werribee and Labor is on 51.05%.
8:21 – Six booths have now reported primary votes in Prahran, plus some early votes. It’ll be hard to say who is winning until we have some real 2CP numbers but right now the Greens are looking stronger, leading 40-31.
8:08 – Worth noting that there isn’t much of a swing to the Liberal Party in Werribee – most of the swing away from Labor is going to minor parties. That 16% 2PP swing in Little River is impressive but if that drops to, say, 8% or 9% in the bigger booths then that would be too little for the Liberals.
8:04 – We finally have some results from Prahran, with primary votes in Orrong showing both Liberal and Greens on about 37%. No real 2CP numbers yet.
8:03 – We’ve also got some results for Thomas Chirnside, Westgrove and Riverside and Labor is below 30% in all three booths. Overall Labor is on 27% to Liberal 25%. Paul Hopper is on 13% and Victorian Socialists are just under 10%.
7:42 – The 2PP for Little River is 60-40 to the Liberal Party. That’s a swing of 16%. Of course it’s worth noting that Little River is a rural booth a long way from the rest of the Werribee population and may not be representative of the rest of the seat. We still have no other results.
7:02 – First booth has reported for Werribee – it’s Little River. Labor is on just 20% and the Liberal Party on 40% of the primary vote. Labor polled 43.5% there last time so that’s a big swing.
6:55 – I was out earlier and have only just started following hte results – but in case you weren’t sure, no votes have been published yet on the VEC site.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the two Victorian state by-elections in Prahran and Werribee. I’ll be following the results here tonight.
Labor have a massively decreased primary in Werribee but it looks like a significant portion of that has gone to Hopper, Legalise Cannabis and the Socialists in the booths they’ve counted so far, rather than the Libs. Preferences will probably favour Labor a little bit more, even with some preference leakage here and there. I’m curious to see if that holds true for the remaining booths, since the TPP is about 51-49 Labor’s way atm.
On current trends it looks like a alp win in Werribee unless prepoll, which I assume haven’t been counted yet, are different.
Starting to look like green retain in Prahran.
Primary votes, in Werribee, on two polling places is showing a big drop for Labor’s primary vote, but a lot of it is going to Independent Hopper and third parties. Hopper 12.4%, VS 12%, Greens 8%, Legalize Cannabis 8%. Labor down 23%, Liberals up 5.6%. Combined major party vote under 55%.
The media assumed all the anti Labor sentiment would flow to the Liberal Party. Of course they were never going to mention that people may vote for VS, or even LC, or the Greens.
I work with people who live in Werribee, and I come across people from Werribee every day. People were certainly angry at Labor, but not too many of them liked the Liberals.
On the ABC liveblog Antony Green commented that nationwide 2PP polls lose significance in elections with such low major party primary vote. Keen to see the full distribution of preferences in Werribee but to extrapolate – seems like teals and Greens are well positioned in their target seats. On the pro LNP side of the ledger you are left with Dai Le, Frank Carbone, Katter and maybe Sharkie. Maybe some teals (Chaney and Spender?) would declare Liberal allegiance for show but I don’t see the net result going to Liberals if teals are in the balance.
Mames me think that even if Labor end up behind on 2PP they are well positioned to survive with Teal support. I’m hanging on to my early federal prediction that Liberals can’t win and their best hope is to put Labor so much into minority that the teals are forced to support them and lose their seats in 2028.
Gonna call Prahran for the Greens.
The problem for the Liberals is that they’re simply not making any inroads on 1st preferences. A near 20% drop for Labor on primaries should see the Liberals sailing home but they’ve only garnered what 4% of an increase. The rest of it has all gone to left leaning minors and Hopper (who hasn’t issued preferences specifically). Those preferences will decide the election and it will probably favour Labor as most of them are leftist parties (Green, VS, Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis).
PollBludger already predict Labor will retain Werribee
Channel 7, Herald Sun, AFR, and Sky News will be very disappointed if the ALP retain Werribee, and the Greens retain Prahran.
Somehow they will still spin it that it was a victory for the Liberals. They will run stories that voters want nuclear reactors, transphobic culture wars, and cuts to government spending on health, and education, at the expense of increasing funding for defense, prisons, and policing. They will gaslight us into thinking that voters want tax breaks for business lunches, as opposed to governments funding school lunches.
They will make this all about Potato Head (Temu Trump), and Baton Charge Battin.
It’s does mean Little River will likely have the biggest swing against Labor as sources says suggest it might be due to a campaign against a lithium battery nearby from TV star Catriona Rowntree
Prahran – Liberals have won Orrong on 2CP, South Yarra is 53% for Greens.
And 61% 2CP in Chapel (Windsor)? Very underwhelming.
Neary 10% 2PP Swing in both Seats is a pretty good effort. Still have not had Final 2PP for end of night but Libs will be close with postals arriving during the week to close the gap more.
Liberals also seem to have convincingly won the postal vote in Prahran, don’t think it will make a huge difference though.
Both seats will stay with their incumbent parties
. This suggests the libs cannot win with hard right leadership in Vic at least at the state government level.
Maybe drawing a large bow..this applies to Mr Dutton as well.
The media types don’t know the western suburbs. The only time they cross the Tullamarine Freeway is to go to the members pavilion at Flemington, or to catch a flight to Aspen.
They don’t speak to people from the west, and they don’t listen to their concerns.
They arrogantly thought that people’s lack of enthusiasm for Labor would translate into votes for the Liberal Party. People of the west know that the Liberals don’t represent them. I called it weeks ago that Labor would retain Werribee.
People in the west want government run services and utilities, as well as an increase in public housing. They don’t want nuclear energy, and handouts to the big end of town.
This is a loss for Dutton, Battin, and their media backers. The west will not be gaslighted by reactionaries like Bolt, and Credlin.
I’m going to predict Werribee will be a Liberal gain if the results stay similar for now. I sense the pre-polls will be lethal for Labor.
Interestingly, Kevin Bonham seems to think the Libs are well placed in Prahran and close in Werribee. Not sure what he is doing different or if it is more or less accurate. Making it hard to determine what is going on when I am seeing two different bloggers, both of whom I think are very good, seeing things so differently.
If the numbers stay roughly the way they are I would summarise as
1)Labor primaries are down 16% in one and 26% in the other (because they didn’t stand).
2)NONE of those primaries went to the Greens (well at least Greens had no net change).
3)About 5% of those Labor primaries went straight to Liberal.
4)There is a 13% swing in 2pp from the left to the right.
@Mark Quinlivan: I pretty much agree with you.
The media manufactures that people’s dissatisfaction with Labor equates to support for the Liberals. If you just rely on legacy media you wouldn’t think everyone supports hard right politics, and loves Dutton. The story is very different on social media, and it’s even different again if you actually speak to ordinary people.
Battin’s politics may resonate at the Hunt Club, but they don’t resonate with the working class. I argued this a month ago. I called it a month ago, when I said Labor would retain Werribee.
Also see it close in both. Have not had final 2PP for Night with preferences determining both Seats. If Luptons in Prahran and Hopper in Werribee skew towards libs will see it 48-49 2PP to Libs behind.
Why do people pretend the ABC, News.com.au and The Project amongst many, many other news outlets aren’t Labor/Greens mouthpieces?
Anthony Green is predicting 51.9 to Libs not sure if he is right
Victoria Electoral Commission has Libs 51.57 2PP Libs but not on full figures
Werribee itself actually had the lowest swing against Labor compared to the new housing estates and Little River so I assume Werribee area itself already was underperforming for Labor due to prison issue back in 2017 which hurted Tim Pallas reputation
Booth results actually looking like they might have been potentially misleading on the result earlier, with that huge swing on postals in Prahran. Werribee still has prepolls to count as well so both seats are very open.
That 51.57 Lib is in Prahran by the way
“21:39 – There is difficulky working out what’s happening in Prahran as we have no idea where the reported pre-poll votes are from. Only one has reported and it boosts Liberal prospects of victory. But which one has reported?” Anthony Green.
I take back my call. Prahran back in play!
BTW that is Anthony Green’s typo, not mine in regards to difficulty.
ABC is projecting the Liberals are ahead in Prahran. No clue how many more votes need to be counted.
Liberals are doing extremely well in Prahran & South Yarra itself with some big swings and so far have flipped Orrong and Hawksburn on 2CP. Postals and pre-polls need to be stronger to secure the victory.
Absolutely surprised here.
It’s becoming clear to me how much the Greens depend on Labor running and handing out HTVs that Labor voters follow (especially habitual/tribal ones). As with Warrandyte, Hornsby, etc. – proof that a large chunk of Labor’s base is not at all interested in the Greens. Surprised it happened in a seat like Prahran.
Makes it clear that Labor could very well do the “nuclear option” to knock them out in every seat but Melbourne federally. Even a reversion to 50/50 is making the Greens lives a lot harder. That isn’t in their interest but I could imagine Labor doing that in an election they think they might lose to clear a path to a Labor comeback
While we all want the results quickly, the fact is that when elections are this close, as both seats are, we need to wait for the final figures. While Labor is ahead in Werribee right now, as far as I can tell there are no prepolls in the count yet and they might well be less good for Labor. Prahran has bounced around a bit all night, and there has certainly been a clear message here: Labor voters do not necessarily think that the Greens are better than the Liberals.
I am more worried about Prahran than Werribee. The huge postal vote for the Liberals, and the preference flows are unnerving.
It’s very interesting to see these preference flows in light of Labor not running this by-election. Strikes me that had they run and registered a HTV with the Greens at 2 as usual, this would look very different. Should this be a narrow Liberal win, this arguably means Labor is back in contention for the seat in 2026 while having an incumbent Greens member probably would mean that member gets to entrench themselves.
@Blue Not John what do you mean by the ‘Nuclear option’?
@Adam – put the Greens last on Labor’s HTV cards.
Agree Adda – if Liberals grab the seat it will be a 3 cornered contest in 2026 and Greens will likely need a high profile candidate to ensure they stay ahead of Labor.
It’s also concerning for the Greens that the “minor party solidarity” vote that got them to win from 3rd twice in this seat is no longer helping them. Contrary to my earlier comment – perhaps the Greens are not seen as an anti-politics vote at all.
Still too early to call, even though LIbs are ahead on 2CP by 300 votes.
Only one of the two pre-poll locations has reported. Antony Green says its votes “favour the Liberals” so my guess is it was South Yarra not Windsor.
I am surprised that the Teals didn’t run in Prahran. I also think it was a mistake that Labor didn’t run. Right now the situation is looking dire in Prahran. There seems to be a St Kilda/ Prahran split. St Kilda booths are sticking with the Greens, whereas the ones in the Prahran-South Yarra area are going Liberal.
The ABC seems to be reporting that Werribee seems to have 33 % turnout.
@Adam MLV is correct, sorry for not clarifying. Most recently the Israel lobby has been asking Labor to put Greens below Liberals on their HTVs. It’s the “nuclear option” as Labor would lose votes, volunteer enthusiasm and the LNP would gain seats, all for the cause of setting back a party that would help Labor form government. But it can’t be ruled out.
If Greens hang on then Di Camillo can dig in and it will be quite a safe seat for her – unless Labor goes for the nuclear option.
Early Votes in Werribee has seen Lib 29.25% to Alp 29.38%. Lib vote went up 2.5% Overall to Alp down 0.8%
I have it 50/50
@No Mondays the teals rely on tactical voting. They didn’t run in Higgins or Macnamara either because they had no shot because of the Labor and Greens vote being so high there. Even in Brisbane they wouldn’t have won and the Greens only won Brisbane because of a fluke.
In Prahran the Liberals are obviously doing well on postals and prepolls like usual, but have only won two booths so far (Hawksburn and Orrong).
ALP above wrong figure 28.38% so almost 1% behind
@No Mondays – I believe Nathan Chisholm was the teal candidate in Prahran.
I think Brad Battin avoiding culture wars and trying to stay similar to John Pesutto was a big factor in why those booths went blue this time. South Yarra became closer too and they’re even doing well in Prahran. They were never winning St Kilda or Windsor, those suburbs don’t belong in this part of Melbourne but rather with the inner-city suburbs of Carlton, Collingwood and Fitzroy.
@Nether Portal: makes sense.
South Yarra, Prahran East, and Fawkner Park could all go Liberal after preferences, whereas Windsor (which although is in the 3181 post code zone, gets voter turnout from parts of St Kilda), and St Kilda East should stay Green.
South Yarra and Orrong are the Liberals strongest areas in Prahran, and since the last federal election, the Liberal vote has been recovering, with assumption being that improvement has been driven by the outer suburbs. There’s no doubt that the ALP has problems but these results are not a ringing endorsement of the Liberals suburban strategy.
As for Werribee what I think is went wrong is the Liberals didn’t do well enough in Werribee itself and the surrounding suburbs.
They did great in Little River which they managed to flip blue, but Werribee and Wyndham Vale remained a sea of red. Sure, some of the booths are marginal now, but they’re still Labor booths.
Paul Hopper’s success also drained the Labor vote but also meant the Liberals couldn’t gain much. Labor had a –17.9% swing against them, but the Liberals only got a +3.9% swing to them, while Hopper got an +8.5% swing to him. The Greens vote went up +0.9%, the Victorian Socialists vote went up +3.5% and the Legalise Cannabis party got 5.9% in their first time contesting.
@Nether Portal , I will now call Prahran for the Liberal Party as c.29,000 votes have been tallied for the 2CP.
If the Greens lose, they’ll blame Tony Lupton.
Party Candidate Preferred votes % preferred votes
Liberal WESTAWAY, Rachel 15406 51.60%
Australian Greens DI CAMILLO, Angelica 14452 48.40%
Source: VEC website.