8:33 – That booth was Thomas Chirnside. Labor polled 29% of the primary vote to 24.5% Liberal, and that translated to a Labor 2PP of 55%. Labor got 57% of preferences from other candidates. This suggests a neck-and-neck primary vote is not enough for the Liberal to win.
8:30 – We now have some more two-party-preferred figures in Werribee and Labor is on 51.05%.
8:21 – Six booths have now reported primary votes in Prahran, plus some early votes. It’ll be hard to say who is winning until we have some real 2CP numbers but right now the Greens are looking stronger, leading 40-31.
8:08 – Worth noting that there isn’t much of a swing to the Liberal Party in Werribee – most of the swing away from Labor is going to minor parties. That 16% 2PP swing in Little River is impressive but if that drops to, say, 8% or 9% in the bigger booths then that would be too little for the Liberals.
8:04 – We finally have some results from Prahran, with primary votes in Orrong showing both Liberal and Greens on about 37%. No real 2CP numbers yet.
8:03 – We’ve also got some results for Thomas Chirnside, Westgrove and Riverside and Labor is below 30% in all three booths. Overall Labor is on 27% to Liberal 25%. Paul Hopper is on 13% and Victorian Socialists are just under 10%.
7:42 – The 2PP for Little River is 60-40 to the Liberal Party. That’s a swing of 16%. Of course it’s worth noting that Little River is a rural booth a long way from the rest of the Werribee population and may not be representative of the rest of the seat. We still have no other results.
7:02 – First booth has reported for Werribee – it’s Little River. Labor is on just 20% and the Liberal Party on 40% of the primary vote. Labor polled 43.5% there last time so that’s a big swing.
6:55 – I was out earlier and have only just started following hte results – but in case you weren’t sure, no votes have been published yet on the VEC site.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the two Victorian state by-elections in Prahran and Werribee. I’ll be following the results here tonight.
So it begins
What a set of fascinating contests we are in for.
Two seats, same city, just at different ends of Port Phillip Bay. But yet completely different.
There’s the white upper-class progressive seat of Prahran in the Eastern Suburbs, and the working-class seat of Werribee in the Western Suburbs. While both seats vote to the left of the state, they’re still completely different and unalike demographically.
This will indeed be fascinating given Victorian Labor’s current polling.
Well considering the tight seat of Melton close to Werribee this is going to be good to watch
Still no results.
Gee greens out please.
A few Werribee prediction questions for anyone sitting around waiting for results.
What do you think the combined other-than-the-3-majors primary vote will reach in Werribee (informal included)? I think it could crack 30%.
What is your order of primary votes among the “others”? I’ll go Hopper > Cannabis > FF > Socialist > AJ but it could be some very tight margins between them.
Enrolment in Werribee is at 56,464, while in Prahran it’s at 48,164.
Not a good start for Labor in Werribee, very interested to see Prahran.
Little River Primary (semi-rural booth) is in, Liberals just shy of 40%, Labor is around 20%. Legalise Cannabis is polling 10% which is a surprise there.
And quick note, that’s around a 23% swing against Labor in one booth. I would be very fearful if I was Labor.
Little River is semi rural so I’m not surprised there’s a massive swing but if this is replicated across the electorate then there’s big problems for Labor.
Thommo9, lithium battery storage planned.
Not instantly game over – with no 2PP reporting and pretty high votes for other left leaning minor parties, the swing against ALP is somewhat inflated. But the 12% increase in Liberal primary alone would put Labor on track to lose.
I think the 2PP is going to be close because judging by the swings Labor’s votes also went to Greens, Socialists and Legal Cannabis which will flow back to Labor more reliably so the final 2PP could be something like 51-49 in Little River even with the big gap in primaries.
40 + 20 =60
100 -60 =40
Need 10 liberal
Need 30 alp
0.8 × 40 = 32
On those figures close
@ Mick Quinlivan Hopper preferences will not be 80% to ALP at best 50%
Also FF will go 80% Liberal
will be interesting to see if that minor party vote stays up, 7% Vic Socialists in a semi-rural booth certainly is something
Vic Soc ran a pretty big campaign. I’ve heard that Labor sat back, let people take their anger out, by voting minor party, and then have preferences flow back.
1 booth across two electorates suggests a lot of scrutineering. Gonna be a long night.
Melton ain’t Werribee
Little River will be close on those figures.
* Liberal: 39.8% (+12.0%)
* Labor: 20.1% (–24.0%)
* LCA: 10.5% (+10.5%)
Legalise Cannabis preferences are gonna decide that booth.
Looks like it’s 60.2% Liberal in Little River according to the ABC.
Hard to pay attention to the Sydney Derby and this but I’ll do my best.
Fun Fact: Little River is where the band got its name from. on their way to a gig in Geelong. This will only make sense to Boomers and those Gen Xers who are suitably jaded.
Preferances 50% Lib 50% ALP better than expected with the high other left wing vote
Nearly an hour and three-quarters after polls closed and no booths in from Prahran. How odd.
@Malcolm Mackerras interesting (though to be honest I’d never heard of the band until just then).
@James I agree it’s pretty odd and I’m not sure what’s going on there. We’ve also only got one booth from Werribee.
@Nether Portal: I wish I had never heard of the Little River Band.
Looking at Werribee it’s now closer and on the current numbers I’d say Labor wins but still too early to call.
If VS got 7.1% in Little River, expect them to do even better in the suburban working class areas of the seat.
Sue Munro is very politically active, and is a non SAlt member of VS. She is very well respected on our side of town.
To be clear the Liberals are still ahead on primaries.
Orrong is the first booth in Prahran, looks like it’s about 37% primary vote for both Libs and Greens.
VS are on 11.2% in Riverbend. Labor are ahead of Liberal, however there is a huge swing against them.
Liberals narrowly lead at Orrong in Prahran, about 9 votes in it.
First results from Prahran have the Greens marginally ahead on TCP but the Liberals are narrowly ahead on preferences.
Labor now marginally ahead in Prahran on primaries.
(Though it should be noted that they’ve only counted 21 TCP preferences in Orrong so far)
From first booth – indies not doing well in Prahran. Possibly Nathan Chisholm and Tony Lupton still sort of in the race. As Janine Hendry polled less than AJP she is very also ran.
@Malben yeah I was gonna say that I just realised that the Greens are only ahead of the Liberals on TCP by one vote.
@Nether Portal: Labor are not running in Prahran. Greens are narrowly ahead.
@No Mondays Think NP meant to say Werribee.
It’s just one booth in Prahran. And I’m pretty sure the PB projection of the Greens being “narrowly” ahead is wildly off, the swing on primaries towards Liberals doesn’t look very big. I would think this is a good sign for the Greens if we’re only looking at this one booth’s primaries
Yep meant to say Werribee. My bad.
Just as I say that, loads more booth results in Prahran. Looks like a Greens win.
Yeah looks like a Greens win for sure but I won’t call it just yet. Looks like what’s happened is the St Kilda booths came in.
Werribee looks pretty good for Labor as well based on booth results and the small sample of preference flows available, though probably a smaller margin.
Liberals primary votes looks like its going backwards in Prahran and as the night goes on the swing in Werribee in the primary vote isn’t that impressive either.
Personally I expect that Lupton’s preference flows are going to end up more Greens than Liberals despite his HTV.
Labor have a massively decreased primary in Werribee but it looks like a significant portion of that has gone to Hopper, Legalise Cannabis and the Socialists in the booths they’ve counted so far, rather than the Libs. Preferences will probably favour Labor a little bit more, even with some preference leakage here and there. I’m curious to see if that holds true for the remaining booths, since the TPP is about 51-49 Labor’s way atm.