9:21 – It appears that the Liberal Party is winning a very narrow majority of preferences flowing in Prahran. They’re gaining 50.8% in Chapel, 51.7% in Fawkner Park, 56.1% in Orrong, 53.9% in Prahran, 50.3% in Prahran East and 49.7% in South Yarra. This suggests the Greens need a primary vote lead to win.
9:04 – Eight booths have reported primary votes in Prahran, and the Greens and Liberal are tied on about 36% each. The Greens are on 53.7% of the 2CP.
9:03 – Ten booths have reported primary votes in Werribee, and Labor is leading 29-27. Four booths have reported 2PP figures and Labor is leading with 50.37%.
8:33 – That booth was Thomas Chirnside. Labor polled 29% of the primary vote to 24.5% Liberal, and that translated to a Labor 2PP of 55%. Labor got 57% of preferences from other candidates. This suggests a neck-and-neck primary vote is not enough for the Liberal to win.
8:30 – We now have some more two-party-preferred figures in Werribee and Labor is on 51.05%.
8:21 – Six booths have now reported primary votes in Prahran, plus some early votes. It’ll be hard to say who is winning until we have some real 2CP numbers but right now the Greens are looking stronger, leading 40-31.
8:08 – Worth noting that there isn’t much of a swing to the Liberal Party in Werribee – most of the swing away from Labor is going to minor parties. That 16% 2PP swing in Little River is impressive but if that drops to, say, 8% or 9% in the bigger booths then that would be too little for the Liberals.
8:04 – We finally have some results from Prahran, with primary votes in Orrong showing both Liberal and Greens on about 37%. No real 2CP numbers yet.
8:03 – We’ve also got some results for Thomas Chirnside, Westgrove and Riverside and Labor is below 30% in all three booths. Overall Labor is on 27% to Liberal 25%. Paul Hopper is on 13% and Victorian Socialists are just under 10%.
7:42 – The 2PP for Little River is 60-40 to the Liberal Party. That’s a swing of 16%. Of course it’s worth noting that Little River is a rural booth a long way from the rest of the Werribee population and may not be representative of the rest of the seat. We still have no other results.
7:02 – First booth has reported for Werribee – it’s Little River. Labor is on just 20% and the Liberal Party on 40% of the primary vote. Labor polled 43.5% there last time so that’s a big swing.
6:55 – I was out earlier and have only just started following hte results – but in case you weren’t sure, no votes have been published yet on the VEC site.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the two Victorian state by-elections in Prahran and Werribee. I’ll be following the results here tonight.
Labor have a massively decreased primary in Werribee but it looks like a significant portion of that has gone to Hopper, Legalise Cannabis and the Socialists in the booths they’ve counted so far, rather than the Libs. Preferences will probably favour Labor a little bit more, even with some preference leakage here and there. I’m curious to see if that holds true for the remaining booths, since the TPP is about 51-49 Labor’s way atm.
On current trends it looks like a alp win in Werribee unless prepoll, which I assume haven’t been counted yet, are different.
Starting to look like green retain in Prahran.
Primary votes, in Werribee, on two polling places is showing a big drop for Labor’s primary vote, but a lot of it is going to Independent Hopper and third parties. Hopper 12.4%, VS 12%, Greens 8%, Legalize Cannabis 8%. Labor down 23%, Liberals up 5.6%. Combined major party vote under 55%.
The media assumed all the anti Labor sentiment would flow to the Liberal Party. Of course they were never going to mention that people may vote for VS, or even LC, or the Greens.
I work with people who live in Werribee, and I come across people from Werribee every day. People were certainly angry at Labor, but not too many of them liked the Liberals.
On the ABC liveblog Antony Green commented that nationwide 2PP polls lose significance in elections with such low major party primary vote. Keen to see the full distribution of preferences in Werribee but to extrapolate – seems like teals and Greens are well positioned in their target seats. On the pro LNP side of the ledger you are left with Dai Le, Frank Carbone, Katter and maybe Sharkie. Maybe some teals (Chaney and Spender?) would declare Liberal allegiance for show but I don’t see the net result going to Liberals if teals are in the balance.
Mames me think that even if Labor end up behind on 2PP they are well positioned to survive with Teal support. I’m hanging on to my early federal prediction that Liberals can’t win and their best hope is to put Labor so much into minority that the teals are forced to support them and lose their seats in 2028.
Gonna call Prahran for the Greens.
The problem for the Liberals is that they’re simply not making any inroads on 1st preferences. A near 20% drop for Labor on primaries should see the Liberals sailing home but they’ve only garnered what 4% of an increase. The rest of it has all gone to left leaning minors and Hopper (who hasn’t issued preferences specifically). Those preferences will decide the election and it will probably favour Labor as most of them are leftist parties (Green, VS, Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis).
PollBludger already predict Labor will retain Werribee
Channel 7, Herald Sun, AFR, and Sky News will be very disappointed if the ALP retain Werribee, and the Greens retain Prahran.
Somehow they will still spin it that it was a victory for the Liberals. They will run stories that voters want nuclear reactors, transphobic culture wars, and cuts to government spending on health, and education, at the expense of increasing funding for defense, prisons, and policing. They will gaslight us into thinking that voters want tax breaks for business lunches, as opposed to governments funding school lunches.
They will make this all about Potato Head (Temu Trump), and Baton Charge Battin.
It’s does mean Little River will likely have the biggest swing against Labor as sources says suggest it might be due to a campaign against a lithium battery nearby from TV star Catriona Rowntree
Prahran – Liberals have won Orrong on 2CP, South Yarra is 53% for Greens.
And 61% 2CP in Chapel (Windsor)? Very underwhelming.
Neary 10% 2PP Swing in both Seats is a pretty good effort. Still have not had Final 2PP for end of night but Libs will be close with postals arriving during the week to close the gap more.
Liberals also seem to have convincingly won the postal vote in Prahran, don’t think it will make a huge difference though.
Both seats will stay with their incumbent parties
. This suggests the libs cannot win with hard right leadership in Vic at least at the state government level.
Maybe drawing a large bow..this applies to Mr Dutton as well.
The media types don’t know the western suburbs. The only time they cross the Tullamarine Freeway is to go to the members pavilion at Flemington, or to catch a flight to Aspen.
They don’t speak to people from the west, and they don’t listen to their concerns.
They arrogantly thought that people’s lack of enthusiasm for Labor would translate into votes for the Liberal Party. People of the west know that the Liberals don’t represent them. I called it weeks ago that Labor would retain Werribee.
People in the west want government run services and utilities, as well as an increase in public housing. They don’t want nuclear energy, and handouts to the big end of town.
This is a loss for Dutton, Battin, and their media backers. The west will not be gaslighted by reactionaries like Bolt, and Credlin.
I’m going to predict Werribee will be a Liberal gain if the results stay similar for now. I sense the pre-polls will be lethal for Labor.
Interestingly, Kevin Bonham seems to think the Libs are well placed in Prahran and close in Werribee. Not sure what he is doing different or if it is more or less accurate. Making it hard to determine what is going on when I am seeing two different bloggers, both of whom I think are very good, seeing things so differently.
If the numbers stay roughly the way they are I would summarise as
1)Labor primaries are down 16% in one and 26% in the other (because they didn’t stand).
2)NONE of those primaries went to the Greens (well at least Greens had no net change).
3)About 5% of those Labor primaries went straight to Liberal.
4)There is a 13% swing in 2pp from the left to the right.
@Mark Quinlivan: I pretty much agree with you.
The media manufactures that people’s dissatisfaction with Labor equates to support for the Liberals. If you just rely on legacy media you wouldn’t think everyone supports hard right politics, and loves Dutton. The story is very different on social media, and it’s even different again if you actually speak to ordinary people.
Battin’s politics may resonate at the Hunt Club, but they don’t resonate with the working class. I argued this a month ago. I called it a month ago, when I said Labor would retain Werribee.
Also see it close in both. Have not had final 2PP for Night with preferences determining both Seats. If Luptons in Prahran and Hopper in Werribee skew towards libs will see it 48-49 2PP to Libs behind.
Why do people pretend the ABC, News.com.au and The Project amongst many, many other news outlets aren’t Labor/Greens mouthpieces?
Anthony Green is predicting 51.9 to Libs not sure if he is right
Victoria Electoral Commission has Libs 51.57 2PP Libs but not on full figures